2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[Ariel]

EDIT: Time has apparently been changed from 8:30 PM ET to 3 PM ET, can't change the thread title so hope this helps.
(https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer)
When is the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will take place in Chicago on May 12 (3 p.m. ET on ABC)

We're entering the week before the lottery (next Sunday, May 12 2024) and since I had some free time today I ran some numbers on it and figured I'd share.

Official Site: https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

BASIC BREAKDOWN
Spurs will have 1-2 picks: their own (1-9) and (maybe) Toronto's (1-4 and 6-10 but only conveys if 7-10). There are 4 basic scenarios:

Spurs get 1 pick: 45.85%. 2 sub-scenarios:

only pick (own) comes at 1-4: 19.39%
only pick (own) comes at 5-9: 26.46%


Spurs get 2 picks: 54.15%. 2 sub-scenarios:

own pick comes at 1-4: 22.72%. Toronto's pick will come anywhere 7-10.
own pick comes at 5-9: 31.42%. Picks must ALWAYS be consecutive: 6 & 7 (14.29%), 7 & 8 (13.86%), 8 & 9 (3.12%) or 9 & 10 (0.15%).



COMBINATIONS BETWEEN SPURS AND TORONTO'S PICKS

Given the Spurs and Toronto's seeding (5h and 6th) there are only 49 valid pick combinations between them, 16 of which give the Spurs 2 picks (54.15%) while 33 give the Spurs 1 pick (45.75%). The remaining combinations can't happen per lottery rules, like 5 & 7, 6 & 9, 8 & 7 (as in Spurs pick falling at 8th and Toronto's at 7th), etc.
Top 2 most likely combinations are 6 & 7 (14.29%) and 7 & 8 (13.86%). Together they account for 28.15%, which is more than the bottom 31 valid combinations put together (28.13%).
Top 6 most likely combinations together account for 43.63% and have the Toronto pick conveying, while the top 8 combinations together account for more than 50.21% and all of them include the 7th pick (either via the Spurs or Toronto).


PICKS DISTRIBUTION

If Toronto's pick conveys it must be that: a) Spurs own pick is top 4 (41.97%) or b) both picks must be consecutive (58.03%). Beware: these percentages are relative to the times the Toronto pick conveys only, so they'd be lower overall.
The possible scenarios with 2 consecutive picks are: 6 & 7 (14.29%), 7 & 8 (13.86%), 8 & 9 (3.12%) or 9 & 10 (0.15%), adding up to 31.42%.
Spurs cannot have 2 picks if their own comes at 5, because that would mean Toronto's pick must be 6 which falls within the protected range.


WHERE TO FOCUS

Most likely ranges where the Spurs could have a pick are:

1-6: 63.96% (only the Spurs own pick)
7-8: 71.87% (own or Toronto's). Odds at getting a 7th pick are at 56.51%
9-10: 4.3% (own or Toronto's)


Thus, ending up with a 7th pick is more likely than not, and almost as likely as the entire 1-6 range. If we include the 7-8 range, chances of falling inside go up to 71.87%, so prospects projected to be available at 7/8 are good targets to scout.
Note that percentages do not add to 100% because they can overlap: if Spurs land 6 and Toronto 7, there's a pick in both 1-6 and 7-8 ranges.


BEWARE WHAT YOU WISH FOR (or not so much)

"More picks" vs "a higher pick": Spurs picking top 4 negatively affects the chances of having 2 picks (Toronto's pick conveying) but only slightly: by -0.3274%.
Conversely, having 2 picks (Toronto's pick conveying) negatively affects the chances of the Spurs picking top 4 but slightly: by -0.3214%.
So if you wanted one of the two scenarios but wondered how it affected the other, don't fret over it: they're almost independent events.


READING LIVE LOTTERY RESULTS

Reveal is down from 14 to 1. The earliest Toronto can appear is 10, and the Spurs 9.
Every reveal that skips team respective to ther seeding implies that team jumped into the top 4, which reduces the chances of the Spurs also jumping into top 4, but increases the chances of the Toronto pick conveying.
From 10 to 7, if Toronto is revealed before the Spurs, then Spurs will be next or else it means they jumped into top 4. So if Toronto comes at 9 then the Spurs are next at 8 or else they'll be in the top 4.
If Spurs are revealed before Toronto, the latter jumped into top 4 and the pick won't convey in this draft.
Odds change depending on the actual lottery order, but if Spurs get into the top 4 their chances at each spot are roughly flat.


FOR GEEKS
Joint distribution for both Spurs and Toronto's pick, as a table and as a list. Note that the tables DO NOT represent the same as that of Tankathon; here row number represents the final (post lottery) pick for the Spurs and column for Toronto's, and the resulting cell (intersection of row and column) contains the probability of that scenario happening.

Joint distribution for Spurs (rows) and Toronto (columns) as a table:
https://i.postimg.cc/4xL5bdXW/b1.png

Joint distribution for Spurs and Toronto as a list:
https://i.postimg.cc/s2GpY462/b2.png

FOR IMPATIENT GEEKS
Same as above, but lumping together scenarios Toronto pick doesn't convey (1-6)

Joint distribution (simplified) for Spurs (rows) and Toronto (columns) as a table:
https://i.postimg.cc/brpkjczG/c1.png

Joint distribution (simplified) for Spurs and Toronto as a list:
https://i.postimg.cc/3xVGxD8Q/c2.png

TL;DR
Took some time to delve into the lottery odds, pick 7 is more likely than not and 7/8 is upwards of 70% so that is a good range to look for available prospects in mocks. Getting 2 consecutive picks at 6 or lower is a distinct possibility, and landing a top 4 pick barely affects the chances of having 2 picks (i.e., the Toronto pick conveying).

[heyheymymy]

Thanks OP nice work

[JPB]

And now we all argue on how probability works.

[heyheymymy]

Something like #3 and #7 would be choice but still not sure where I want to fall or how I want it to all play out

[Bruno]

Nice work.
Another consequence of the lottery will be the amount of cap space Spurs will have.

Let's say Spurs keep Champagnie, waive Graham + Bassey and renounce their FAs:
- If they are lucky in the lottery and get #1 + #7, they will have about $15.5M in cap space.
- If they are unlucky and get only #7, they will have about $27M in cap space.

I rather see Spurs getting that Raptors pick because this draft isn't that weak in the #7 to #10 range and because they have a lot of first round picks in 2025, but I fear Spurs basically do basically nothing else this summer if they got it. Spurs' offseason plan could just be at a PG and a SF with the two top10 picks they'll have.

[couchman]

This is so good! Thanks

Don’t overthink it y’all!
#1 and #7 picks are ideal but we’ll see what the basketball gods have for us

[heyheymymy]

shit, looks like 3 and 7 are the tenth most likely outcome

6 & 7 here we go!

[heyheymymy]

the cool thing is that the two most probable outcomes involve TOR conveying the best max value pick possible and the second best max value pick possible

[buttsR4rebounding]

As I have been looking at the 2025 draft more and realize (at least for now how deep it is) I am now solidly in the camp of not wanting the Toronto pick to convey. I think the 12-15 pick next year likely conveys more value at a cheaper price than the 7-10 pick this year. I would hope the Spurs own pick is as high as possible only to make it more attractive as trade bait for DJM. If that trade could happen without giving up Atl 25 I’d be all over it. I also don’t see anyone Atlanta might draft contributing enough year 1 to move the needle for them.

[Rubberducky]

I read somewhere that this years draft got moved to 2pm on abc. The night game is on TNT so ESPN has to adjust to show it before the early Knicks/Pacers game.

Also, the draft is happening on Mother’s Day.

EDIT: Keith Smith tweeted it, that’s where I read it.

[JPB]

Nice work.
Another consequence of the lottery will be the amount of cap space Spurs will have.

Let's say Spurs keep Champagnie, waive Graham + Bassey and renounce their FAs:
- If they are lucky in the lottery and get #1 + #7, they will have about $15.5M in cap space.
- If they are unlucky and get only #7, they will have about $27M in cap space.

I rather see Spurs getting that Raptors pick because this draft isn't that weak in the #7 to #10 range and because they have a lot of first round picks in 2025, but I fear Spurs basically do basically nothing else this summer if they got it. Spurs' offseason plan could just be at a PG and a SF with the two top10 picks they'll have.

That'll be interesting, and a defining moment for the franchise, to see if Wemby can change spurs philosophy.

1. Whether they consider Wemby is way ahead of the curve (potential top 5-10 next year and DPOTY) and then act as if next was actually year 3-4 in the process by making moves to help the Alien.

2. Whether they treat Vic like your random rook, still beleive the current roster is gonna take that next step, then keep the long term "process" going, by just adding rookies to a group of role players and 3rd stringers next year...

Personnaly, it's OK, I saw what Victor can do and who he will be in this league this past year... I'm not gonna watch the spurs lose another season trying to develop a bunch of rooks or fringe NBA players in meaningless games and a losing season around Wemby next year.

[Rosewood]

Great read! Nice post.

[manufan10]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMvzkk3WEAMYTK8?format=jpg&name=large

[onechance87]

we need raptors pick to convey this year.I see raptors tanking for the next few years.

[John B]

Thanks OP. I’d be greedy and hope for #1 and #7 pick. Let’s go!!!!!

[montgod]

That'll be interesting, and a defining moment for the franchise, to see if Wemby can change spurs philosophy.

1. Whether they consider Wemby is way ahead of the curve (potential top 5-10 next year and DPOTY) and then act as if next was actually year 3-4 in the process by making moves to help the Alien.

2. Whether they treat Vic like your random rook, still beleive the current roster is gonna take that next step, then keep the long term "process" going, by just adding rookies to a group of role players and 3rd stringers next year...

Personnaly, it's OK, I saw what Victor can do and who he will be in this league this past year... I'm not gonna watch the spurs lose another season trying to develop a bunch of rooks or fringe NBA players in meaningless games and a losing season around Wemby next year.

I think it will be a mix of 1 & 2. For this weak of a draft, especially to possibly get two high draft picks, I can't see them standing pat and just picking who is their BPA unless the FO see something special in who's available. Part of me feels like Spurs will look at this draft as bargaining chips for additional '25 draft picks or other player acquisition(s) who are already in the NBA - salary dump options or true prospects that fit with the Spurs.

[scott]

I ran 100,000 simulations on Tankathon and approximately 10.5% of the time we got the #1 pick. I'm going to increase the iterations to one million and see if that improves our odds.

[scott]

On a more serious note, thank you for this Ariel, great work!

[SOMA Spur]

Thought this was funny. Vecenie just ran his 3rd Mock. He wanted to include the Raptors in the discussion, so prior to the pod he kept rolling the Tankathon until the Raptors kept their pick. It took him 8 tries before they kept it. ...oh and really great stuff OP.

[JPB]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMvzkk3WEAMYTK8?format=jpg&name=large

9:01 PM Spurs pick Josh Primo

[Ariel]

I ran 100,000 simulations on Tankathon and approximately 10.5% of the time we got the #1 pick. I'm going to increase the iterations to one million and see if that improves our odds.
I was mostly interested in how Spurs' pick outcomes affected Toronto's pick and viceversa, since single pick odds can be easily obtained through Tankathon's tables and any simulation would just return that, but the odds for two lottery picks combined aren't independent so can't be obtained multiplying the odds for each pick (combinations 6&7 and 7&8 are wildly different, for instance, and they're significant because they account for a bulk of the chances). It's a curiosity more than anything, but wanted to get a real sense of how likely it is to get any given rannge of picks (1-6 can only come from the Spurs so they're the same as Tankathon's, but 7-10 are not since they can come from either team) or how to interpret the reveal as it happens, but even then I have no idea what I prefer so it doesn't make much of a difference :lol

[Ariel]

That'll be interesting, and a defining moment for the franchise, to see if Wemby can change spurs philosophy.

1. Whether they consider Wemby is way ahead of the curve (potential top 5-10 next year and DPOTY) and then act as if next was actually year 3-4 in the process by making moves to help the Alien.

2. Whether they treat Vic like your random rook, still beleive the current roster is gonna take that next step, then keep the long term "process" going, by just adding rookies to a group of role players and 3rd stringers next year...

Personnaly, it's OK, I saw what Victor can do and who he will be in this league this past year... I'm not gonna watch the spurs lose another season trying to develop a bunch of rooks or fringe NBA players in meaningless games and a losing season around Wemby next year.
Nobody wants the Spurs to go the route of Detroit, but I'd hate to ruin 5+ years of greatness for an immediate couple of first round exits. don't think the franchise does either as they're certainly not stupid and surely realize this would damage Wemby's long term future on the Spurs, the debate is IMO whether to put the foot on the gas right now, midway through next season, or once it's finished.

[scott]

I was mostly interested in how Spurs' pick outcomes affected Toronto's pick and viceversa, since single pick odds can be easily obtained through Tankathon's tables and any simulation would just return that, but the odds for two lottery picks combined aren't independent so can't be obtained multiplying the odds for each pick (combinations 6&7 and 7&8 are wildly different, for instance, and they're significant because they account for a bulk of the chances). It's a curiosity more than anything, but wanted to get a real sense of how likely it is to get any given rannge of picks (1-6 can only come from the Spurs so they're the same as Tankathon's, but 7-10 are not since they can come from either team) or how to interpret the reveal as it happens, but even then I have no idea what I prefer so it doesn't make much of a difference :lol

Your work is awesome. My 100,000 simulations post was a joking reference to a Tweet last year were someone ran 10,000 simulations to see how many times the Spurs got the #1 pick... and predictably, the outcome was just the easy-to-find lottery odds. :lol

Just some fun on how some people really don't understand probability at all.

I really appreciate you putting the work in above - it's really good stuff and helps lay out the interdependence of the SA and TOR picks and helps eliminate some confusion some folks have. Of course, some people will continue to be confused (like the confusing "most probably" with "likely", which I see a lot).

Thanks again!

[scott]

Nobody wants the Spurs to go the route of Detroit, but I'd hate to ruin 5+ years of greatness for an immediate couple of first round exits. don't think the franchise does either as they're certainly not stupid and surely realize this would damage Wemby's long term future on the Spurs, the debate is IMO whether to put the foot on the gas right now, midway through next season, or once it's finished.

I'm biased, but I still think my approach in the "Call your Ideal Offseason" thread (Post #1) is best :)

[Kevin]

My realistic dream scenario would be the third overall pick while rolling the dice on the Raps pick in a stronger draft class.

[heyheymymy]

I ran 100,000 simulations on Tankathon and approximately 10.5% of the time we got the #1 pick. I'm going to increase the iterations to one million and see if that improves our odds.


lol

[BatManu20]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.

[Mr. Body]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.

Well, they've only had seven lottery picks in their entire history. And two of them were at 11 and 12, which are basically impossible to move down.

[spurraider21]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.
if only we fell 30 spots in 2021 so we would have avoided primo

[BackHome]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.

The more I look at the 2025 draft the more I am hoping this happens as far as Raptors pick

[stnick2261]

I'm hoping we do not get a top pick in this draft because it would be an expensive rookie... and it would be really suspicious to get 3 number 1 picks in a row (when we draft Flagg to play next to Wemby)

[Ariel]

I read somewhere that this years draft got moved to 2pm on abc. The night game is on TNT so ESPN has to adjust to show it before the early Knicks/Pacers game.

Also, the draft is happening on Mother’s Day.

EDIT: Keith Smith tweeted it, that’s where I read it.
It indeed appears it was moved recently, thanks:
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

When is the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will take place in Chicago on May 12 (3 p.m. ET on ABC)
Can't change the thread title to reflect that, is there any way around this?

[Knoxxx]

I ran 10 simulations and we got two picks 5 or 6 times I forget. Lately tankathon likes to give us Ron Holland with the our 2nd pick and goes Topic then Sheppard with our first pick. It also likes Buzelis and puts C Williams in the 10-12 range l.

[scott]

I ran 10 simulations and we got two picks 5 or 6 times I forget. Lately tankathon likes to give us Ron Holland with the our 2nd pick and goes Topic then Sheppard with our first pick. It also likes Buzelis and puts C Williams in the 10-12 range l.

When I run TAT sims, if we get a high first pick and the TOR pick, we always take Topic first and then Buzelis. If Buzelis is taken, we can Holland. I would be happy with that outcome for the TOR pick, but I really don't want Topic, personally.

[shaq_h8ter]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

[Ariel]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.
And Wemby demands a trade not 24 hours later :lol

[CGD]

Damn, we need this date to get here soon. The takes here are getting stale, and we need new information.

[LeBowen]

Some archetypes should be avoided at all costs in the draft.

Guards - players with no shot shouldn't even be considered. I'm not talking current 3pt range, but overall shooting, since some of them even struggle at the line. I'd consider a point guard with no shot only if he's both an elite defender and playmaaker.
Wings - players that aren't guaranteed to be at least positive defenders shouldn't even be considered.
Bigs - unless it's Sarr since he's obviously BPA, don't even consider bigs.

[Joseph Kony]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

i am 100% confident that neither of those players will be drafted by the spurs should they get the #2 and #7 picks

[R. DeMurre]

Interesting side note to this year's draft analysis: that Dean on Draft guy hasn't posted on his substack or Twitter accounts since January. My guess is some team hired him as a consultant with the stipulation that he couldn't post any opinions on prospects until after the draft.

[onechance87]

what our pick in the 2nd round

[JPB]

Do we get to see devastated HOU fans funny vids too this year?

[Ariel]

Do we get to see devastated HOU fans funny vids too this year?
Houston gets trashed routinely but they've drafted better than the Spurs TBH (Sengun at 16 without even having a pick, Cam Whitmore at 20, Tari Eason at 17, etc).

[MultiTroll]

It's raining in Chicago today.

Does that affect the draft odds?

[BacktoBasics]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.
I could be wrong but I think for this to happen not only would the Spurs have to jump into the top 3 but a 7 or later would have to jump as well. Not likely. If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot.

[scott]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

I'll get my Fire Brian Wright thread drafted up now

[scott]

Interesting side note to this year's draft analysis: that Dean on Draft guy hasn't posted on his substack or Twitter accounts since January. My guess is some team hired him as a consultant with the stipulation that he couldn't post any opinions on prospects until after the draft.

Or he is sitting in a Clark County jail cell, but hasn't gotten internet privileges yet. Dude seems like kind of a Vegas sleezeball (though I do generally like his takes, except for when he thought Wemby was overhyped and Saar was a better prospect :lol)

[Ariel]

I could be wrong but I think for this to happen not only would the Spurs have to jump into the top 3 but a 7 or later would have to jump as well. Not likely. If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot.
Chances Spurs get a top 4 and the Toronto pick conveys are 22.74%, and the percentage of times the Toronto pick conveys is roughly the same whether the Spurs get a top 4 pick or not, it's in the 1st post, as well as the odds for any combination.

[BacktoBasics]

Chances Spurs get a top 4 and the Toronto pick conveys are 22.74%, and the percentage of times the Toronto pick conveys is roughly the same whether the Spurs get a top 4 pick or not, it's in the 1st post, as well as the odds for any combination.

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.

[couchman]

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.

Top 4 are decided by lottery drawing and then teams select in decending order after that based on records

[scott]

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.

You originally said: "If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot."

It's literally impossible for that to happen. Ariel quite clearly explained all the scenarios in the original post.

[Ariel]

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.
If a team below Toronto (thus below the Spurs as well) jumps into top 4 the highest the Spurs can pick is 6, that's because there would still be 4 teams with a worse record than the Spurs fighting for only 3 spots, so whomever doesn't make the top 4 will have no. 5 before the Spurs.

That said, yes, you're basically correct in that for the Spurs to get a top 4 pick AND the Toronto pick to convey then not only Spurs have to jump but also one (or more) teams besides Toronto (but not them). The odds a team below Toronto jumps (but not Toronto) are (roughly) 54%, if you add the constraint that the Spurs also jump to top 4 then you get to that 22.74% I said. If you want top 3 and not top 4 then that leaves you at 17.14% (add up the cells that are in rows 1-3 and columns 7-10)

Basically whatever scenario you want to find the odds to, simply find the cells in the table that meet that criteria and add them up. In the case you mention I already did it because it was precisely what I was interested in finding out and that's why I had already posted the number.

[DAF86]

Houston gets trashed routinely but they've drafted better than the Spurs TBH (Sengun at 16 without even having a pick, Cam Whitmore at 20, Tari Eason at 17, etc).

Sengun is the opposite of a blessing in disguise, imho. A player that is too good not to try and build around to, but a guy that, I think, will end up proving to be too flawed to ever build a true contender around.

He will just make the Rockets waste time.

[Ariel]

Sengun is the opposite of a blessing in disguise, imho. A player that is too good not to try and build around to, but a guy that, I think, will end up proving to be too flawed to ever build a true contender around.

He will just make the Rockets waste time.
I'll take that over the Primo blessing in disguise :lol

[DAF86]

I'll take that over the Primo blessing in disguise :lol

Had we drafted Sengun over Primo, we wouldn't have Wemby right now.

Even if we would have drafted Sengun and somehow still got Wemby, it is a bad fit. I literally wouldn't change a thing, tbh.

[Ariel]

Had we drafted Sengun over Primo, we wouldn't have Wemby right now. I literally wouldn't change a thing, tbh.
Probably (but not necessarily). Doesn't make it any less of a mistake though. Anyways, the point was, Sengun was a great pick by Houston. Don't like him long term? No problem, if they trade him they'll get back their investment and quite a bit more.

[DAF86]

Probably (but not necessarily). Doesn't make it any less of a mistake though.

I edited my post to add that even if we would have gotten Wemby anyways, Wemby and Sengun is a bad fit.

You are right that PATFO needs to start hitting on more Senguns and Haliburtons over Primos, tbh. Still, Vassell and Sochan are objectively good picks. They are doing OK in terms of drafting.

[BacktoBasics]

If a team below Toronto (thus below the Spurs as well) jumps into top 4 the highest the Spurs can pick is 6, that's because there would still be 4 teams with a worse record than the Spurs fighting for only 3 spots, so whomever doesn't make the top 4 will have no. 5 before the Spurs.

That said, yes, you're basically correct in that for the Spurs to get a top 4 pick AND the Toronto pick to convey then not only Spurs have to jump but also one (or more) teams besides Toronto (but not them). The odds a team below Toronto jumps (but not Toronto) are (roughly) 54%, if you add the constraint that the Spurs also jump to top 4 then you get to that 22.74% I said. If you want top 3 and not top 4 then that leaves you at 17.14% (add up the cells that are in rows 1-3 and columns 7-10)

Basically whatever scenario you want to find the odds to, simply find the cells in the table that meet that criteria and add them up. In the case you mention I already did it because it was precisely what I was interested in finding out and that's why I had already posted the number.


You originally said: "If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot."

It's literally impossible for that to happen. Ariel quite clearly explained all the scenarios in the original post.

I do stand corrected. 6th not 5th is what I should have said.

[ambchang]

Had we drafted Sengun over Primo, we wouldn't have Wemby right now.

Even if we would have drafted Sengun and somehow still got Wemby, it is a bad fit. I literally wouldn't change a thing, tbh.

I’m not that siren I don’t believe sengun even moves that needle at all. He’s got the signs of an empty calories guy.

[CGD]

I believe this is at 3pm EST not 8:30

[scott]

Ran another 13.7 billion simulations, and about 10.5% of the time we got the number 1 pick. I'm going to let the sim machine run all night and see what happens when we get to a trillion.

[LeBowen]

Can't wait for spurstalk servers to go down one last time before the update.

[KingKev]

I believe this is at 3pm EST not 8:30

Yep, if this was Wemby’s draft year you skipping mother’s lunch for it?!?

[CGD]

Yep, if this was Wemby’s draft year you skipping mother’s lunch for it?!?

Nah, my mom would be watching too lol. Gotta chance to take her to see Wemby here in DC earlier this year, which was awesome.

[Atl Spur]

Nah, my mom would be watching too lol. Gotta chance to take her to see Wemby here in DC earlier this year, which was awesome.

Good deal!

[spurraider21]

this is going to be one of the most important spurs draft lotteries in the last 0 years

[Mugen]

this is going to be one of the most important spurs draft lotteries in the last 0 years

:lol I still can't believe this franchise lucked into fucking Victor

[Degoat]

Honestly whatever happens this Sunday for the lottery I’m fine with, we hit the Mega Lottery last year. Let things fall how they should.

[Dejounte]

Honestly whatever happens this Sunday for the lottery I’m fine with, we hit the Mega Lottery last year. Let things fall how they should.
exactly. Getting greedy with it will anger the basketball gods tbh

[spurraider21]

fwiw i care more about getting the raptors pick then where the spurs pick falls

like, i'd rather get 6 and 9 than 1

[Ariel]

fwiw i care more about getting the raptors pick then where the spurs pick falls

like, i'd rather get 6 and 9 than 1
If the Spurs get 2 picks and their own isn't top 4 then the 2 picks must be consecutive (6&7, 7&8, 8&9 or 9&10), so 6&9 can't happen.

[Ariel]

I believe this is at 3pm EST not 8:30
Yes, I already posted but can't modify the thread title:


I read somewhere that this years draft got moved to 2pm on abc. The night game is on TNT so ESPN has to adjust to show it before the early Knicks/Pacers game.

Also, the draft is happening on Mother’s Day.

EDIT: Keith Smith tweeted it, that’s where I read it.
It indeed appears it was moved recently, thanks:
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

When is the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will take place in Chicago on May 12 (3 p.m. ET on ABC)
Can't change the thread title to reflect that, is there any way around this?

EDIT: Time has apparently been changed from 8:30 PM ET to 3 PM ET, can't change the thread title so hope this helps.

[Mr. Body]

Feel like the Spurs will take two rooks regardless of whether TOR conveys. Would rather the second rook be a lottery pick both for the roster crunch and the fact that we're looking at six potential lottery picks in the three drafts after this.

It's totally wild how many picks we have coming up.

[rascal]

I'm expecting Portland to get the top pick.

[Seventyniner]

The Spurs only have a 54% chance of getting the Raptors pick but it seems like far more than 54% of the scenarios people are posting involve getting both picks.

I'm prepared for the Spurs to have only #6.

[Ariel]

The Spurs only have a 54% chance of getting the Raptors pick but it seems like far more than 54% of the scenarios people are posting involve getting both picks.

I'm prepared for the Spurs to have only #6.
This post is 87.3% depressing. :lol

[TekXX]

Do the Spurs trade back?

[John B]

Is it here yet??

[baseline bum]

The Spurs only have a 54% chance of getting the Raptors pick but it seems like far more than 54% of the scenarios people are posting involve getting both picks.

I'm prepared for the Spurs to have only #6.

Honestly it's really complicated to come up with a draft strategy without knowing which way our luck breaks there. I do think the top 3 on my board are Dillingham, Risacher, and Sheppard, with Sheppard #3 but not sure who I'd rank #1 vs #2 and probably won't know that until the combine official measurements for Rob. Leaning Dilly though. If they only get one pick I want one of those three, and if none are available take a wild upside swing on Holland, Topic, Buzelis, or Williams, in that order. If they get two and take one of Dilly or Sheppard with the earlier pick I take that same upside swing on the second pick, but without considering Topic. If they get none of the top 3 on my board and have both picks I take Topic and one of Holland, Buzelis, or Williams. Though I'd probably want to pick Holland first which throws a huge wrench into the strategy if Topic can't be had with the second pick. Also another caveat: if they get #1 and the team with the #2 pick wants Sarr I ask for a future first to swap picks. Might do it for #3 too if Sheppard really impresses at the combine. Ugh what a mess of if statements. And then Buzelis could blow up at the combine and completely change everything :lmao

[Mr. Body]

The Spurs only have a 54% chance of getting the Raptors pick but it seems like far more than 54% of the scenarios people are posting involve getting both picks.

I'm prepared for the Spurs to have only #6.

I keep saying that's possibly the best situation.

We're gonna be grouching and bitching in three years if we are looking at the extension of a top 3 pick in this draft who's only a role-player. We have six lotto picks in the next three years. That money starts stacking up.

[Mr. Body]

We haven't paid much attention to the early second and mid second. Figure that mid second is pretty much gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see the TOR pick traded and the early second used or moved up. Along those lines.

[baseline bum]

I keep saying that's possibly the best situation.

We're gonna be grouching and bitching in three years if we are looking at the extension of a top 3 pick in this draft who's only a role-player. We have six lotto picks in the next three years. That money starts stacking up.

I just don't see the problem. Your extension in Year 5 isn't based on where in the draft you were picked in practice. Even in what seemed like your worst case that you get an Ayton who you don't want but who put up the numbers to get a max contract you max him out and trade him for useful pieces like the Suns did to land Nurkic and Allen.

[Mr. Body]

I just don't see the problem. Your extension in Year 5 isn't based on where in the draft you were picked in practice. Even in what seemed like your worst case that you get an Ayton who you don't want but who put up the numbers to get a max contract you max him out and trade him for useful pieces like the Suns did to land Nurkic and Allen.

Exactly what the problem is. You don't want to have to get rid of your players once year 5 approaches. You want them on reasonable contracts. Overpaying for players becomes a major problem. The Ayton situation was horrible for Phoenix. It was a major problem for several seasons and really hampered what they were trying to do. Rest assured that adding more lottery picks for us is going to be a problem if those players don't match their salary slots.

Add to this: Wembanyama is probably the only player in the league who will be worth the supermax.

[baseline bum]

Exactly what the problem is. You don't want to have to get rid of your players once year 5 approaches. You want them on reasonable contracts. Overpaying for players becomes a major problem. The Ayton situation was horrible for Phoenix. It was a major problem for several seasons and really hampered what they were trying to do. Rest assured that adding more lottery picks for us is going to be a problem if those players don't match their salary slots.

Add to this: Wembanyama is probably the only player in the league who will be worth the supermax.

So you want the Spurs draft picks to disappoint rather than prove they're worth max contracts? You don't want them to find a Jalen Williams with one of their picks? Just because Williams was picked #12 doesn't mean he won't command max. Just because hypothetically Risacher was picked #2 doesn't mean anyone will offer him a max contract when he hits RFA if he has only shown himself to be starting material but not possible Allstar material. And I still want to know what was horrible about paying Ayton and then getting two quality starters for him in trade. Seems like Phoenix made lemonade beautifully with a max player they didn't want. If your guy you don't want is getting max FA offers in RFA he's probably going to have pretty good trade value.

[scott]

While it's absolutely true that the #1 pick, the #5 pick, the #11 pick, and the #29 pick are all eligible for the same rookie extensions, I THINK Mr. Body (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=397) is trying to make this point, which I very slightly of agree with (but I will provide a few examples that go both ways): That top pick who performs at a decent, but underwhelming level will get a bigger 2nd contract than a later pick who at the same level but is considered an over performer.

One example that runs counter to this and defeats the premise: Markelle Fultz was a #1 pick and got a 3/50 ($16.7MM AAV, starting at 14.68% of the cap). Derrick White was a #29 pick, who's extension with SA was 4/70 ($17.5 AAV, starting at 13.5% of the cap). Both guys got pretty similar deals after putting up pretty similar counting stats. This example could be used to say that players get the extensions they deserve, and their draft position ONLY matters relatively

A different example that supports the premise: DeAndre Hunter (#4 pick) got a 4/90 ($22.5AAV, starting at 14.8% of the cap) extension while putting up relatively similar numbers to #21 pick Brandon Clarke who only got a 4/50 ($12.5 AAV, starting at 9.2% of the cap).


Hunter has some better counting stats, with a higher career scoring avg, but Clarke has better advanced metrics

Career 20.4 PER for Clarke, 11.2 for Hunter.
Clarke has a career 2.8 BMP and has been a positive on Offense and Defense every year of his career,
whereas Hunter has a career -3.2 BPM and has been a negative on offense and defense every year of his career other than his second year.



I think you could easily argue Clarke is the better and more valuable player.

The Hunter/Clarke is example is one where it is arguable where Hunter's payday was in part due to his pedigree as a top-5 pick, and Clarke's deal was based on being an overperforming late FRP. Clarke of course spent this year injured, but he signed his extension in 2022.

So, there are certainly examples of top picks ending up with oversize extensions, but it is typically the result of teams being stupid and giving them those deals. Orlando was smart, only giving Fultz the extension he deserved, not an extension based on being a former #1 pick.

Just sticking with the 2019 draft, here is the way extensions worked out for the top 8 picks:

1. Zion - max
2. Ja - max
3. RJ Barrett - 4/107 (seems like an appropriate deal I'd put Barrett and Vassell around the same performance level and they got similar deals on an AAV basis, but Barrett's starts at 17.5% of the cap and stays there whereas Vassell's starts at 20.5% of the cap and declines)
4. Hunter - 4/90, overpay
5. Garland - max (this might be an overpay?, but you're kind of forced into a rookie max at Garland's performance level)
6. Jarrett Culver - out of the league
7. Coby White - 3/36, freaking steal of a deal for Chicago. Cannot be overstated how much of a steal this is
8. Jaxson Hayes - 2/5 1+1 deal after Pelicans let him walk

This got me thinking, so I went through and looked at what extensions looked like for Top 4 picks going back to the 2016 draft (Left out 2019 because I addressed it above):




2016
2017
2018
2019
2020


1
Simmons - 5/177 (Rookie DPE)
Fultz - 3/50
Ayton - 4/132 (Max)
Zion - max
Ant - 5/204 (Max)


2
Ingram - 5/158 (Max)
Ball - 4/80 (S&T)
Bagley - 3/38
Ja - max
Wiseman - headed to RFA


3
Brown - 4/106
Tatum - 5/163 (Max)
Luka - 5/215 (Rookie DPE)
Barrett - 4/107
Ball - 5/204 (Max)


4
Bender - No extension
Josh Jackson - No extension, 2/10 in FA
JJJ - 4/107
Hunter 4/90
PWill - headed to RFA



So looking at the last 5 years of rookie extensions, really the two examples of an overpay based on pedigree is Deandre Hunter and I would also say Ayton. He isn't worth a max, and PHX was stupid to give him one (and this website was not at their best suggesting we offer him one in RFA). It seems like everyone else who isn't a hit (but isn't a complete bust like Bender and Jackson), gets an appropriate deal (Fultz, Ball, Bagley). However, this is a pretty small sample size AND I will note none of those appropriately sized second deals are with the original team!

Also... #4 pick, woof.

In conclusion... I understand the point that I *think* Body is trying to make... but I don't think I agree with it. Players get the second contracts they generally deserve.

[baseline bum]

So looking at the last 5 years of rookie extensions, really the two examples of an overpay based on pedigree is Deandre Hunter and I would also say Ayton. He isn't worth a max, and PHX was stupid to give him one (and this website was not at their best suggesting we offer him one in RFA). It seems like everyone else who isn't a hit (but isn't a complete bust like Bender and Jackson), gets an appropriate deal (Fultz, Ball, Bagley). However, this is a pretty small sample size AND I will note none of those appropriately sized second deals are with the original team!

Also... #4 pick, woof.

In conclusion... I understand the point that I *think* Body is trying to make... but I don't think I agree with it. Players get the second contracts they generally deserve.

I completely disagree that Ayton wasn't worth paying for the Suns. Their choices were to either let him walk to Indiana and lose him for nothing or re-sign him to use as a trade asset. I don't think they could have opened up any significant capspace in scenario #1 because they were paying huge contracts to Booker and CP0 and significant ones to role-players like Jae Crowder and Dario Saric too. Nurkic and Grayson Allen were good pickups for them from the Ayton trade that would have dried up and become nothing. Mr. Body's being wholly unrealistic when he seems to be expecting guys to want to take paycuts vs their market value on a first extension or first free agent deal when they have already been paid below market value on their rookie contracts where even the #1 pick is getting MLE and anyone not top 5 or 6 is making bench scrub money.

[heyheymymy]

https://i.redd.it/u5s4xrroptzc1.jpeghttps://preview.redd.it/u5s4xrroptzc1.jpeg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&043ab130

[scott]

I completely disagree that Ayton wasn't worth paying for the Suns. Their choices were to either let him walk to Indiana and lose him for nothing or re-sign him to use as a trade asset. I don't think they could have opened up any significant capspace in scenario #1 because they were paying huge contracts to Booker and CP0 and significant ones to role-players like Jae Crowder and Dario Saric too. Nurkic and Grayson Allen were good pickups for them from the Ayton trade that would have dried up and become nothing. Mr. Body's being wholly unrealistic when he seems to be expecting guys to want to take paycuts vs their market value on a first extension or first free agent deal when they have already been paid below market value on their rookie contracts where even the #1 pick is getting MLE and anyone not top 5 or 6 is making bench scrub money.

We're all free to our own opinions, but in mine Ayton is not worth his contract. Whether the choice was to let him walk or lose him for nothing is irrelevant to the point that he strong-armed the Suns into giving him a max deal. In fact, it kind of makes Mr. Body's point for him - IMO. A former #1 pick used his status as such to get himself a max deal. Indiana was stupid to want to pay him that contract... it's a bad contract. He's essentially putting up Memphis-era Jonas Valanciunas stats (basic and advanced). Jonas turned essentially the same stat lines and advanced metrics into a 2/30 deal while Ayton got the max. Why? Probably all based on his status as a #1 pick.

Ayton in PHO: 16.7 ppg, 10.5 reb, 1.0 blk, .604 fg%, .263 3p% (0.3 attempts/game), .160 WS/48, 1.3 OBPM, -0.2 DBPM, 1.1 BPM, 1.44 VORP/season, 120 ORTG, 109 DRTG, 20.5 PER
Jonas in MEM: 16.4 ppg, 11.7 reg, 1.1 blk, .606 fg%, .349 3p% (1.1 attempts/game), .190 WS/48, 2.6 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM, 2.6 BPM, 1.6 VORP/season, 121 ORTG, 107 DRTG, 23.4 PER

Jonas was the better player, but he's on a $15MM AAV deal while Ayton is on a $33MM AAV. Age is the only factor in Ayton's favor, but since they signed their deals, Jonas has played in 74, 79 and 82 games. Ayton has only played in 67 and 55.

Ayton = bad contract.

[Ariel]

I keep saying that's possibly the best situation.

We're gonna be grouching and bitching in three years if we are looking at the extension of a top 3 pick in this draft who's only a role-player. We have six lotto picks in the next three years. That money starts stacking up.
There are 2 separate issues to address there:
1) Toronto pick conveying now or not
2) Where Spurs' own pick ends up.

Your argument pertains to the 2nd. In that sense, late picks who perform well (Maxey, Bane, Sengun, Jalen Johnson, etc) will also get paid, while obvious busts won't no matter the pick (Killian Hayes, Jarrett Culver, Kevin Knox, etc). In cases where extensions are undeservedly large, it's usually guys who are still "on the fence" by their 4th year and end up getting paid out of perceived potential rather than actual production. It just so happens that those guys were usually very young at the time of the draft and had some heavily desired traits (great positional size, off the charts athleticism, raw tools), and are usually drafted very high (candidates to fall in this category are players like Jalen Green, Shaedon Sharpe, Jabari Smith, etc). So there is some truth to it, but I'd say it's not primarily about where they were drafted, though I will concede in some cases teams do fall victims to the sunk cost fallacy and keep investing in players who don't deserve it. In this draft it's true that there is no clear tier break at the very top, so I'm fine either way.

As for the first point, this doesn't look like a great draft and the next is supposed to be much better, but there is a lot of uncertainty as to what would happen with Toronto, with a real possibility that they'd tank much harder if they find themselves in a similar position next season as they did in this one. In that case, the pick may not convey next year either, and that's a risky proposition. And if they do steer the ship, then that pick may end up in the mid teens rather than the high lottery, which likely won't give you access to much better players than you can get now at 7. With all of that in mind and considering the many picks the Spurs have lined up next year, I'm inclined to go for the bird in hand approach and have it convey now. But if that isn't the case, it isn't the end of the world either.

All in all, I think a 4 & 7 scenario would be ideal, even a 6 & 7. I'd be pretty happy with that.

[JPB]

Honestly whatever happens this Sunday for the lottery I’m fine with, we hit the Mega Lottery last year. Let things fall how they should.

This, I'm not expecting this draft to be game changing.

[JPB]

fwiw i care more about getting the raptors pick then where the spurs pick falls

like, i'd rather get 6 and 9 than 1

Nah, give me #1 anyday. I prefer having even a remote chance at getting a borderline star or elite role player than adding another two average role players with little chances they'll be more than than that.

Talent is really hard to get in the NBA, specially for free. You shouldn't pass the chance.

[JPB]

I keep saying that's possibly the best situation.

We're gonna be grouching and bitching in three years if we are looking at the extension of a top 3 pick in this draft who's only a role-player. We have six lotto picks in the next three years. That money starts stacking up.

That's a crucial point. Spurs should really not add rookies for the sake of it then see how it goes, but only if they feel it's worth it.

They shouldn't happily jump on every pick and prospect passing by, but be picky with their picks. Adding 2 rookies in a bad draft may mean renouncing better ones in the future or not being able to make other needed moves.

[rascal]

Nah, give me #1 anyday. I prefer having even a remote chance at getting a borderline star or elite role player than adding another two average role players with little chances they'll be more than than that.

Talent is really hard to get in the NBA, specially for free. You shouldn't pass the chance.

Yes, 1 and 7 is the best possible outcome.

[JPB]

Conspiracy of the day, brought to you by "Uneducated United"

This is all rigged, you fools. Woke NBA knows Risacher and Sarr are going top 2 and has move back the lottery to an earlier time some french audience can see it.

It's all a business, you sheeps.

(Now saying this, I'll be able to actually see it. So, that works).

[Ice009]

What determines what day and time the draft lottery is? I recall last year it was a Tuesday night (US time).

[baseline bum]

We're all free to our own opinions, but in mine Ayton is not worth his contract. Whether the choice was to let him walk or lose him for nothing is irrelevant to the point that he strong-armed the Suns into giving him a max deal. In fact, it kind of makes Mr. Body's point for him - IMO. A former #1 pick used his status as such to get himself a max deal. Indiana was stupid to want to pay him that contract... it's a bad contract. He's essentially putting up Memphis-era Jonas Valanciunas stats (basic and advanced). Jonas turned essentially the same stat lines and advanced metrics into a 2/30 deal while Ayton got the max. Why? Probably all based on his status as a #1 pick.

Ayton in PHO: 16.7 ppg, 10.5 reb, 1.0 blk, .604 fg%, .263 3p% (0.3 attempts/game), .160 WS/48, 1.3 OBPM, -0.2 DBPM, 1.1 BPM, 1.44 VORP/season, 120 ORTG, 109 DRTG, 20.5 PER
Jonas in MEM: 16.4 ppg, 11.7 reg, 1.1 blk, .606 fg%, .349 3p% (1.1 attempts/game), .190 WS/48, 2.6 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM, 2.6 BPM, 1.6 VORP/season, 121 ORTG, 107 DRTG, 23.4 PER

Jonas was the better player, but he's on a $15MM AAV deal while Ayton is on a $33MM AAV. Age is the only factor in Ayton's favor, but since they signed their deals, Jonas has played in 74, 79 and 82 games. Ayton has only played in 67 and 55.

Ayton = bad contract.

You're strawmanning my argument man, I never said Ayton was worth his contract. I said Phoenix was better off paying it because he was a valuable asset. Do you think they would have been better off with nothing instead of Nurkic + Allen? Because that's what you're going to have to argue to say the Suns shouldn't have paid Ayton.

[Mr. Body]

That's a crucial point. Spurs should really not add rookies for the sake of it then see how it goes, but only if they feel it's worth it.

They shouldn't happily jump on every pick and prospect passing by, but be picky with their picks. Adding 2 rookies in a bad draft may mean renouncing better ones in the future or not being able to make other needed moves.

Right. The team clearly needs talent, but there will be so much churn in the next few years that it may be necessary to handle it, like a rapids. They have a roster crunch now. Most of the players won't be around much longer, but it's not actually clear which ones have to go. Clearing room for two rookies this year will be a mild headache (it had been Graham and Mamu gone, supposedly, but what if they want to keep Mamu?).

After next year, it will probably be clearer who needs to go among the Barlows, Basseys, Wesleys, and so on. I'm only guessing two rookies will come in next year, but the accommodation will be important both roster-spot and salary-wise.

[Mr. Body]

While it's absolutely true that the #1 pick, the #5 pick, the #11 pick, and the #29 pick are all eligible for the same rookie extensions, I THINK Mr. Body (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=397) is trying to make this point, which I very slightly of agree with (but I will provide a few examples that go both ways): That top pick who performs at a decent, but underwhelming level will get a bigger 2nd contract than a later pick who at the same level but is considered an over performer.

One example that runs counter to this and defeats the premise: Markelle Fultz was a #1 pick and got a 3/50 ($16.7MM AAV, starting at 14.68% of the cap). Derrick White was a #29 pick, who's extension with SA was 4/70 ($17.5 AAV, starting at 13.5% of the cap). Both guys got pretty similar deals after putting up pretty similar counting stats. This example could be used to say that players get the extensions they deserve, and their draft position ONLY matters relatively

A different example that supports the premise: DeAndre Hunter (#4 pick) got a 4/90 ($22.5AAV, starting at 14.8% of the cap) extension while putting up relatively similar numbers to #21 pick Brandon Clarke who only got a 4/50 ($12.5 AAV, starting at 9.2% of the cap).


Hunter has some better counting stats, with a higher career scoring avg, but Clarke has better advanced metrics

Career 20.4 PER for Clarke, 11.2 for Hunter.
Clarke has a career 2.8 BMP and has been a positive on Offense and Defense every year of his career,
whereas Hunter has a career -3.2 BPM and has been a negative on offense and defense every year of his career other than his second year.



I think you could easily argue Clarke is the better and more valuable player.

The Hunter/Clarke is example is one where it is arguable where Hunter's payday was in part due to his pedigree as a top-5 pick, and Clarke's deal was based on being an overperforming late FRP. Clarke of course spent this year injured, but he signed his extension in 2022.

So, there are certainly examples of top picks ending up with oversize extensions, but it is typically the result of teams being stupid and giving them those deals. Orlando was smart, only giving Fultz the extension he deserved, not an extension based on being a former #1 pick.

Just sticking with the 2019 draft, here is the way extensions worked out for the top 8 picks:

1. Zion - max
2. Ja - max
3. RJ Barrett - 4/107 (seems like an appropriate deal I'd put Barrett and Vassell around the same performance level and they got similar deals on an AAV basis, but Barrett's starts at 17.5% of the cap and stays there whereas Vassell's starts at 20.5% of the cap and declines)
4. Hunter - 4/90, overpay
5. Garland - max (this might be an overpay?, but you're kind of forced into a rookie max at Garland's performance level)
6. Jarrett Culver - out of the league
7. Coby White - 3/36, freaking steal of a deal for Chicago. Cannot be overstated how much of a steal this is
8. Jaxson Hayes - 2/5 1+1 deal after Pelicans let him walk

This got me thinking, so I went through and looked at what extensions looked like for Top 4 picks going back to the 2016 draft (Left out 2019 because I addressed it above):




2016
2017
2018
2019
2020


1
Simmons - 5/177 (Rookie DPE)
Fultz - 3/50
Ayton - 4/132 (Max)
Zion - max
Ant - 5/204 (Max)


2
Ingram - 5/158 (Max)
Ball - 4/80 (S&T)
Bagley - 3/38
Ja - max
Wiseman - headed to RFA


3
Brown - 4/106
Tatum - 5/163 (Max)
Luka - 5/215 (Rookie DPE)
Barrett - 4/107
Ball - 5/204 (Max)


4
Bender - No extension
Josh Jackson - No extension, 2/10 in FA
JJJ - 4/107
Hunter 4/90
PWill - headed to RFA



So looking at the last 5 years of rookie extensions, really the two examples of an overpay based on pedigree is Deandre Hunter and I would also say Ayton. He isn't worth a max, and PHX was stupid to give him one (and this website was not at their best suggesting we offer him one in RFA). It seems like everyone else who isn't a hit (but isn't a complete bust like Bender and Jackson), gets an appropriate deal (Fultz, Ball, Bagley). However, this is a pretty small sample size AND I will note none of those appropriately sized second deals are with the original team!

Also... #4 pick, woof.

In conclusion... I understand the point that I *think* Body is trying to make... but I don't think I agree with it. Players get the second contracts they generally deserve.

Good analysis. My overall point is that you never want to overpay for talent. We still don't know how the hugely onerous new CBA is going to work out. Superteams are catastrophic, so long as they make too much money. We may see the Minnesota Timberwolf window closing very rapidly because they can't hack it financially. The key to winning championships is having key stars, but also exceptional role players. And role players get expensive.

Optimally, we'll get two exceptional players next year, so good that they may be looking at max contracts. The Spurs have always been good at managing expenses and getting guys to accept less than market in general. Even then, they've had to make cost-cutting moves like the execrable trade of Luis Scola to drop salary. (Good God what a disaster.)

So, if we're hopefully getting a star or two next year, we don't want Zaccharie Risacher hanging around having been picked at #2 and wanting a bag. He's barely better than Julian Champagnie. Even worse, these extensions may be coming when Risacher isn't even done developing yet.

We have a miracle in our first 'true' tanking season giving us a super-generational talent who will vastly overperform even a supermax contract. And we got him without having any horrible longterm contracts. But things will get tricky with the new CBA to get more talent while maintaining things under the tax aprons. Things could either get totally out of control. OKC is already facing significant problems because they have three supposed max guys.

[Mr. Body]

The Ayton situation is somewhat unusual. I mean, the Suns drafted a guy who, when asked what he was most looking forward to in the NBA, said "My second contract."

Getting rid of bad max contracts is going to get harder in the league as we go on. Again, we don't know how the CBA is going to play out, but the capacity of teams to absorb huge contracts over the cap is going to go away if it's not already gone.

[Seventyniner]

Something else to keep in mind is that it was the Pacers who offered Ayton the max in restricted free agency. The Suns never had a choice between paying Ayton the max and paying him less than the max. Their only choice was to pay him the max or let him walk for nothing.

Matching the Pacers' max offer with the intention of trading him was perfectly reasonable imo, even if he wasn't necessarily worth the contract in a vacuum. Since one team (the Pacers) thought Ayton was worth the max, it would stand to reason that other teams might have thought the same. And I would imagine the Suns gauged interest in Ayton before deciding to match.

[scott]

You're strawmanning my argument man, I never said Ayton was worth his contract. I said Phoenix was better off paying it because he was a valuable asset. Do you think they would have been better off with nothing instead of Nurkic + Allen? Because that's what you're going to have to argue to say the Suns shouldn't have paid Ayton.

I'm not trying to strawman anything, but whether or not Ayton is worth his contract is the point (at least the one I'm making).

Let's say the Spurs draft Risacher at #1 (or any other guy from this draft, it doesn't matter), and he goes out and put up Vassell like numbers but holds steady for a max extension based on the fact he's a former #1 pick. The fact will be that Risacher won't be worth a max extension, but the Spurs might "better off paying it" because the alternative will be losing him for nothing or having to trade him.

That's a shitty scenario, and I'd much rather have a scenario where a #11 pick goes out and puts up the same performance, but only requires Vassell's extension (which is more what he's worth).

That's the only point being made here, which is why the Ayton-Jonas comparison is valid.

[scott]

Something else to keep in mind is that it was the Pacers who offered Ayton the max in restricted free agency. The Suns never had a choice between paying Ayton the max and paying him less than the max. Their only choice was to pay him the max or let him walk for nothing.

Matching the Pacers' max offer with the intention of trading him was perfectly reasonable imo, even if he wasn't necessarily worth the contract in a vacuum. Since one team (the Pacers) thought Ayton was worth the max, it would stand to reason that other teams might have thought the same. And I would imagine the Suns gauged interest in Ayton before deciding to match.

So, let me just say that I understand this point that you and baseline bum are making, and my counter is that this is a bad position to be. I'd argue that if Ayton was picked #14 and put up the same performance, he wouldn't have gotten that max offer sheet from IND and might have come to some reasonable extension with PHO (regardless of being traded later). That #1 pedigree ended up clouding the picture and leading to a bad contract. That's the situation we hope to avoid (which goes without saying, you want a #1 pick to perform better). When a #1 performs at this "pretty good, maybe there is more potential" level like an Ayton or a Hunter, they end up with contracts they don't deserve.

[baseline bum]

I'm not trying to strawman anything, but whether or not Ayton is worth his contract is the point (at least the one I'm making).

Let's say the Spurs draft Risacher at #1 (or any other guy from this draft, it doesn't matter), and he goes out and put up Vassell like numbers but holds steady for a max extension based on the fact he's a former #1 pick. The fact will be that Risacher won't be worth a max extension, but the Spurs might "better off paying it" because the alternative will be losing him for nothing or having to trade him.

That's a shitty scenario, and I'd much rather have a scenario where a #11 pick goes out and puts up the same performance, but only requires Vassell's extension (which is more what he's worth).

That's the only point being made here, which is why the Ayton-Jonas comparison is valid.

I guess my beef with that argument is Risacher probably wouldn't get a max offer sheet signed if he's putting up Vassell numbers unless he's unbelievable defensively. If no team agrees you're a max player by actually offering max money you're not a max player. Also that would be after four years, not three. Spurs offered Vassell that deal because they thought he was better than his numbers and wanted to lock him up for cheaper than they thought he'd be in a year.

[scott]

I guess my beef with that argument is Risacher probably wouldn't get a max offer sheet signed if he's putting up Vassell numbers unless he's unbelievable defensively. If no team agrees you're a max player by actually offering max money you're not a max player. Also that would be after four years, not three. Spurs offered Vassell that deal because they thought he was better than his numbers and wanted to lock him up for cheaper than they thought he'd be in a year.

I generally agree (and that's what the history mostly bares out) - but Ayton is the counter example, IMO. Not a max player, but commanded max money.

I think Ayton threads a needle that you hope to avoid. Most of the top picks are either obvious max players, or are so underperforming that they get Fultz-like deals (usually on another team). It's the middling, Ayton-like performance that gets you into an undeserving contract situation.

Interestingly, in the case of Ayton, he seems to get credit for being a better defender than he is. When many on this board wanted to throw him a max offer sheet, it was done partially off the idea that he could be a two-way big man, but he isn't really a very good defender. Several years later, I'd still take Bid Daddy Val over him today (especially at a Big Daddy contract).

[scott]

Alright.... my mechanical Babbage analytic engine (built from scratch over 7 months out of Lego specifically for running these simulations) is done. After 2.4 trillion simulations, the Spurs get the top pick 10.5% of the time.

My PREDICTION (which is really just what I want to happen but I'm going to manifest it into existence):

Spurs get PICK #6
Raptors land on PICK #7 (pick conveys to San Antonio)

Yes, I'm going out on a bold limb, picking the single most likely individual scenario.

Thanks again Ariel (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=3526) for this fantastic thread.

[baseline bum]

Alright.... my machines Babbage analytic engine (built from scratch over 7 months out of Lego specifically for running these simulations) is done. After 2.4 trillion simulations, the Spurs get the top pick 10.5% of the time.

My PREDICTION (which is really just what I want to happen but I'm going to manifest it into existence):

Spurs get PICK #6
Raptors land on PICK #7 (pick conveys to San Antonio)

Yes, I'm going out on a bold limb, picking the single most likely individual scenario.

Thanks again Ariel for this fantastic thread.

100 minutes until we see how not worth it tanking the season was :lol

[Dejounte]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the goal of the tank was to increase the odds of getting the TOR pick than it was to get the highest pick possible. I think they’ll see this as a win if they don’t get a top 4 pick but get both picks, IMO.

[goliath]

If we leave this lottery and draft with the problem of having to pay two max slots in the future I would say this lottery and draft was an unqualified success.

[Ice009]

I didn't follow the Toronto pick throughout the season. What are the conditions (top 6 protected?), and what is it projected at?

[Mugen]

The league burying this on a Sunday afternoon on Mother's Day tells you all you need to know about the quality of this draft tbh :lol

[Mugen]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the goal of the tank was to increase the odds of getting the TOR pick than it was to get the highest pick possible. I think they’ll see this as a win if they don’t get a top 4 pick but get both picks, IMO.

:lol You're giving PATFO way too much credit tbh. The Raps pick was a lock to convey this year until Barnes got hurt.

[LeBowen]

I didn't follow the Toronto pick throughout the season. What are the conditions (top 6 protected?), and what is it projected at?

https://i.imgur.com/UrnAmSn.png

[Knoxxx]

We need Ariel on here ASAP for play by play on how the picks reveal works for us.

[Knoxxx]

If we leave this lottery and draft with the problem of having to pay two max slots in the future I would say this lottery and draft was an unqualified success.

I know right, I can believe people thinking rookie contracts are a bad deal :rollin

[Dejounte]

:lol You're giving PATFO way too much credit tbh. The Raps pick was a lock to convey this year until Barnes got hurt.

I wasn’t giving them kudos for having that as a potential objective. I’m trying to make sense of why they would tank in a weak draft tbh

[poopbox]

People in here talking about future max contracts for players who haven't been drafted yet :lol

[Ariel]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the goal of the tank was to increase the odds of getting the TOR pick than it was to get the highest pick possible. I think they’ll see this as a win if they don’t get a top 4 pick but get both picks, IMO.
I'm not scared of a top 4 pick, but yeah, probably harvesting Toronto's pick now rather than taking a chance next year is more important. Especially seeing how bad Toronto tried to tank at the end of the season, the fact that they don't want it to convey for whatever reason (they like the class better than anticipated, they plan to pivot and make the pick much worse next season) makes me want it to convey NOW.

[Knoxxx]

People in here talking about future max contracts for players who haven't been drafted yet :lol

I know the insanity of it all! On the one hand, we suck at drafting so may as well not have ANY picks. You can’t make this chit up!

[Knoxxx]

I'm not scared of a top 4 pick, but yeah, probably harvesting Toronto's pick now rather than taking a chance next year is more important. Especially seeing how bad Toronto tried to tank at the end of the season, the fact that they don't want it to convey for whatever reason (they like the class better than anticipated, they plan to pivot and make the pick much worse next season) makes me want it to convey NOW.

Concur I don’t trust those POS

[Ariel]

We need Ariel on here ASAP for play by play on how the picks reveal works for us.
I could do that, I actually have a script that updates the entire tankathon table for any given reveal (i.e. conditioned on the known information), but since it needs to know the exact order at that point (odds change if the first reveal is 14th team or 13th and so on) it needs to happen in real time and there's too little time between picks. Plus I live in Argentina, so likely by the time the lottery is starting for me it probably ended for you all.

[SouthernFryd]

Whoever drafted Ginobili should get some sorta award or trophy. Hell, that whole era of drafts was amazing. As compared to the most recent era...which sucks.

So, I don't know why people are not all aboard trading picks for solid players. The alternative, is letting these idiots draft again.

BTW...how long we have to wait until we find out what picks Spurs have? Is this an all day thing listening to rubber mouth analysts and crappy entertainment?

[baseline bum]

I wasn’t giving them kudos for having that as a potential objective. I’m trying to make sense of why they would tank in a weak draft tbh

Pop thought he could make Sochan a PG and then fell in love with Branham. It's pretty much on him.

[baseline bum]

Welp here's my roll... so maybe Topic and Holland? ROFL if Detroit picks #5 again.

https://i.ibb.co/tbp3cdY/roll.png

[Spursfanfromafar]

Is the draft lottery live on League Pass? if not, where?

[thiste]

Let's pray

[Knoxxx]

I could do that, I actually have a script that updates the entire tankathon table for any given reveal (i.e. conditioned on the known information), but since it needs to know the exact order at that point (odds change if the first reveal is 14th team or 13th and so on) it needs to happen in real time and there's too little time between picks. Plus I live in Argentina, so likely by the time the lottery is starting for me it probably ended for you all.

MAKE IT HAPPEN!!!!!!

[Spurs Homer]

Is the draft lottery live on League Pass? if not, where?

abc

and espn i believe

[thiste]

Is the draft lottery live on League Pass? if not, where?

It's on ABC

[LeBowen]

Is the draft lottery live on League Pass? if not, where?

https://www.nba.com/watch/channel/nbatvlive

[scott]

Here’s how good this draft is… the lottery commentators just called Sarr “one of the best perimeter shooters in this draft”.

They don’t even know or give a fuck about these prospects :lol

[Spurs Homer]

I hope fat perk doesnt jinx the spurs lol

[Knoxxx]

Is the draft lottery live on League Pass? if not, where?

Some crazy obscure channel called ABC

[Ef-man]

Welp here's my roll... so maybe Topic and Holland? ROFL if Detroit picks #5 again.

https://i.ibb.co/tbp3cdY/roll.png

Order I got:
San Antonio
Charlotte
Portland
Detroit

[stnick2261]

any links to live feeds by chance? I'm not at a place where I can log in to ABC

[JPB]

any links to live feeds by chance? I'm not at a place where I can log in to ABC

https://nbabox.me/nba-draft-lottery-live/nba/stream-1

[Pauleta14]

It's live on Youtube for those searching for a link

[scott]

Spurs are the top topic of conversation in the lead up to the lottery. Victor has made us relevant again!

[Gandalf]

ABC, on now.

[Seventyniner]

I did one last Tankathon roll. The Raptors jumped all the way to #1 and the Spurs got the #6 pick.

Right in line with where I have set my expectations fwiw.

[skin27]

Baset case scebario

Spurs @ 3
Raptors @ 7

[Knoxxx]

Is the draft lottery live on League Pass? if not, where?

ABC fool

[scott]

ABC: Hey Donovan Clingan, let me ask you about your dead mom on live TV, here on Mother’s Day and all.

wtf?

[JPB]

Sheppard looks like he's 14 :lol

[skin27]

Sheppard and dilly the almost have the same height

[Knoxxx]

Sheppard/Dilly nearly as tall as the 6-6 Castle

[baseline bum]

Castle looks like Dillingham and Sheppard's dad

[JPB]

ABC: Hey Donovan Clingan, let me ask you about your dead mom on live TV, here on Mother’s Day and all.

wtf?

Embarassing. Kid was holding his tears but on the other side, he mentioned it on his social media so I don't know.

[manufan10]

My last Tankathon was terrible.

Raptors #2
Spurs #7

[heyheymymy]

My most important thing is not having TOR leap SA

i can handle anything else pretty much except 8&9 perhaps

[Spurs Homer]

Off topic…

but that shit haliburton wore when abc caught him walking into the game…

was enough to make me glad the spurs never drafted him…
what a phaggoty sense of style

[thiste]

It's live on Youtube for those searching for a link

Would you care to share a link? Thanks!

[skin27]

Lmao scoot

[heyheymymy]

Wright looking like he’s got the right mindset

[John B]

It’s on!!! Crazy how much taller is Castle next to Dilly. Reed looking like young Stockton

[scott]

Would have been cool to send Sidy Cissoko or Mamu or some shit :lol

[Seventyniner]

Asking Scottie Barnes if he's excited :lol

His team just blatantly tanked the last 1/3 of the season.

[heyheymymy]

Got the frozen TOR envelope to pull right at 7

[scott]

WE GETTING THAT TOR PICK BABY

[skin27]

Spurs 9th lol

[LeBowen]

Got #8 from Raptors!

[LeBowen]

Moved into top4!

[skin27]

Fck

[scott]

TOP 4 AND #8!!!

[Spurs Homer]

Oh oh

[thiste]

YESSSSSSSSSSS

[scott]

LOL DETROIT LOL CHARLOTTE

[skin27]

Pistons 5th again:lmao

[heyheymymy]

TOR #8

SA in the top 4 !!!!

[ace3g]

Spurs in the top 4!!!

[Spursfanfromafar]

Top 4 and 8!!!!

[baseline bum]

Oh fuck get the Toronto pick at #8 and get in the top 4.

[lefty20]

Pistons doe :lmao

[Spurs9]

I thought we hit ours at 8, didn’t realize it would show the Toronto pick as ours, wow.

[Bill_Brasky]

We got that 8 and we get top 4 let's fucking go

[Knoxxx]

YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Mr. Peabody]

Yesss!!!!

[Dejounte]

Let’s GOoooooo

[Seventyniner]

omg

#8 from Raps, Spurs in the top 4

[thiste]

I don't know what San Antonio did to keep being so lucky in the draft but man...


God must be a fan of great basketball

[ace3g]

Spurs at 8 confused me, lol, I thought it would still show the Raptors and then announcers would say that pick now goes to the Spurs.

[skin27]

Poor pistons

[benefactor]

:flag:

[Pauleta14]

Would you care to share a link? Thanks!

plenty, just type nba draft lottery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Glw-GiUHsUs

[Knoxxx]

I thought we hit ours at 8, didn’t realize it would show the Toronto pick as ours, wow.

[John B]

It’s on!!! Crazy how much taller is Castle next to Dilly. Reed looking like young Stockton

[z0sa]

ohhhhh shiz.

[sfernald]

Omg Reed & Dilly! We finally gonna get some guard play!

[skin27]

Spurs at 8 confused me, lol, I thought it would still show the Raptors and then announcers would say that pick now goes to the Spurs.

Actually spurs @9th

[LeBowen]

https://media.tenor.com/LFeZJ6KRIkYAAAAM/pop-thumbs-up.gif

[John B]

Whoah 8th and top 4 GSG!!

[benefactor]

Four and eight baby

[skin27]

Spurs 4th and 8th

[r0drig0lac]

glorious

[Spurs Homer]

Ill take it!

[cd98]

Hope that draft pick doesn't keep the Hawks out of the lottery for the next several years.

[Holden_Caulfield]

4th not bad. wouldve preferred to be ahead of the rockets

[Spurs Homer]

Spurs got….options!

[Dex]

No complaints about that, especially in this draft where there is no clear #1 or #2

[sfernald]

4 and 8 is absolutely perfect!

[Robz4000]

Trade both picks tbh imo fwiw.

[Seventyniner]

4 and 8. I'll take it.

[NickiRasgo]

Dang. Does it make harder or easier to trade with Hawks?

[barakz21]

Lol just as I put on the same Jersey I put on in last year’s lottery, it was announced we got the Raps’ pick. THAT and a top 5 pick, I consider it a massive win!

[emmo]

Too bad the Hawks got the first pick. They need to keep sucking.

[ginobilized]

Holy $#*%! 4 & 8
Atlanta winning might make DJ and Trae price more malleable

[John B]

Atlanta might just keep both Trae and Dejounte now lol

[thiste]

You know one of those three teams will pick Clingan so that makes only 2 teams picking ahead of us for our potential targets.

I think we're good here

[LeBowen]

Well, we're not getting Risacher with Wizards being ahead of us and Rockets might take our preferred point guard.

I expect Topic/Dillingham with 4th and a wing with 8th pick.

[BacktoBasics]

Holy $#*%! 4 & 8
Atlanta winning might make DJ and Trae price more malleable

It’s so hard to say what Atlanta wants now. If I had the first pick I’d consider running it back too see if they can capitalize on it.

I’d also consider that getting the first pick makes trading DJ or Trae easier because they can get right into a solid rebuild.

[Seventyniner]

A lesson for teams with superstitions: the three teams with the best lottery luck today either sent their coach (Rockets) or their GM (Spurs, Hawks) to the lottery.

Stop sending players to this shit.

[Pauleta14]

Atlanta might just keep both Trae and Dejounte now lol

The smarter move would be draft Dillingham and trade Trae

[Mugen]

F'n amazing outcome tbh. The only thing that would made it better was to get the 3rd pick in front of the Rockets.

But damn, the Spurs absolutely luck out in b2b draft lotteries.

[daslicer]

Spurs didn't pretty good today. I think they were originally projected to get number 6 so getting 4 is a steal. Getting the 8th pick is a plus. This allows the Spurs to have a lot of creativity when it comes to drafting and possibly trading these picks.

[SouthernFryd]

What Spurs F/O does with these picks, will determine if I keep NBA League pass next year.

Want them to do well...don't trust Brian to do well tho. Last year required no brains. This year does.

We'll see.

[couchman]

Atlanta probably stays in win-now mode?
I can see them shopping the pick for a player who can help them right away.

[Mugen]

Well, we're not getting Risacher with Wizards being ahead of us and Rockets might take our preferred point guard.

I expect Topic/Dillingham with 4th and a wing with 8th pick.

I think Clingan is a strong possibility for Washington tbh.

[Uriel]

Was pretty funny seeing that slight look of disappointment in Wright’s face after we were announced at #4. For all the lottery luck we’ve had over years, we’ve still gotten greedy. :lol

[Ariel]

Spurs at 8 confused me, lol, I thought it would still show the Raptors and then announcers would say that pick now goes to the Spurs.
Yeah, me too. Should have said Spurs via Raptors at least.

[td4mvp2k]

i would of liked a top 2 but getting that toronto pick I feel a lot better

[Ariel]

Bitter sweet news, especially with Atlanta landing at no. 1. Also hated that Houston jumped, but whatever.

[BatManu20]

This is a W tbh. Conveyed Toronto’s pick, confirms that the Jakob trade was worth it, and now we don’t have to be worried about being overloaded with draft picks in next year’s draft. Big dub.

[Pauleta14]

PATFO must be sweating if there's one player they REALLY want. It's over for Risacher but I wonder if they want one of the UK guys

We'll never know as they'll probably act as if whoever they get was their 1st choice.

[CGD]

Worke

[objective]

4 & 8 is good, happy that the Toronto pick won't become a second rounder, but damn Atlanta at 1 is garbage

Houston at 3 isn't great either

But the thing with Atlanta isn't that the #1 pick will generate a lot more wins for them considering how few extra wins the 2023 top 3 generated, it's more about them being energized now and they could really try to win and even spend into the tax for once. Their picks aren't worth as much now I would think

[exstatic]

Dang. Does it make harder or easier to trade with Hawks?

Harder.

[tapiefan]

As long as we get away from trash Risacher, I'm happy.

[sfernald]

Atlanta: Sarr
Wizards: Zack
Houston: Clingan (ume really wants a defensive center)

so Spurs will get their choice of guard and probably Cody Williams at eight.

[exstatic]

A lesson for teams with superstitions: the three teams with the best lottery luck today either sent their coach (Rockets) or their GM (Spurs, Hawks) to the lottery.

Stop sending players to this shit.

A better lesson is don’t hard tank year after year. Detroit has taken it up the poop chute two years in a row with the best lottery odds. I loved that three teams got booted from the top 4 spots.

[Mugen]

I think we'll see:

1. Hawks: Sarr
2: Wiz: Clingan
3. HOU: Risacher
4. Spurs: Topic
5. Pistons: Sheppard

[JPB]

Atlanta probably stays in win-now mode?
I can see them shopping the pick for a player who can help them right away.

It will indeed interesting, this year maybe more than others, to see what teams will do with their picks, including the spurs.

[LeBowen]

Imo, this is how it goes:
Hawks: Would be really surprising if they don't take Sarr.
Wizards: They need everything, I'm hoping they don't pick Risacher.
Rockets: They got plenty of wings. Clingan or a point guard for FVV to mentor.
Spurs: Risacher or the next best wing.
Pistons: Sheppard because he fits nicely with Cade or a wing.
Hornets: Anything other than a point guard.
Blazers: Same as Hornets.
Spurs: Point guard.


I don't think PATFO should go for a point guard with #4 because Pistons Hornets and Blazers surely won't pick one, except for maybe Pistons taking Sheppard.
But all of them need wings and Spurs' preferred wings won't be available at #8.

Risacher would be ideal with #4 and then a point guard with #8.
Although I wouldn't have anything against two wings, just don't pick a point guard with #4.

[benefactor]

Man this is fucking wild. The rest of the offseason is going to be something else. I can barely speculate what the roster is going to look like on opening day.

[Uriel]

If timvp says Dillingham is #1 on our list and Givony says Dillingham is #1 on our list, then he must be our man.

The fact that we can get him without having to pay a #1 overall pick salary and the pressure of expectations that comes with it makes this victory even sweeter.
ter.

[SpursBills]

1. Hawks: Sarr
2. Wiz: Topic
3. Hou: Sheppard

I think Spurs will most likely be able to choose between the top 2 on Timvp's draft board

[objective]

If the rockets take Shepperd I'm going to have a bad draft night

[TD 21]

Hawks at 1 (probably closes the door on any realistic Murray back to the Spurs scenario) and Rockets at 3 (potential Sheppard team) isn't great, but you can't have everything.

Getting 4 and 8 is a much better outcome than I expected and with the Wizards at 2, a trade up scenario for Risacher is probably in play.

I don't see an obvious Clingan team until Grizzlies at 9, so a trade back scenario could be in play too.

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/tom_orsborn/status/1789740930607579492

[John B]

The smarter move would be draft Dillingham and trade Trae

Sarr is a big target for Trae, plus his rim defense, on top of DJ help defense. I’d draft Sarr if I were Hawks.

[ducks]

Trade both picks tbh imo fwiw.

For what ?

[Big Empty]

If timvp says Dillingham is #1 on our list and Givony says Dillingham is #1 on our list, then he must be our man.

The fact that we can get him without having to pay a #1 overall pick salary and the pressure of expectations that comes with it makes this victory even sweeter.
ter.
Ill take Dilly

[benefactor]

Ill take Dilly
Same. Number 8 is much harder to predict

[LeBowen]

If timvp says Dillingham is #1 on our list and Givony says Dillingham is #1 on our list, then he must be our man.

The fact that we can get him without having to pay a #1 overall pick salary and the pressure of expectations that comes with it makes this victory even sweeter.
ter.

Since lottery was a big shakeup, things change.
Cade, Lamelo, Scoot are cornerstones of three franchises picking after our 4th pick. No way they're taking Dillingham when they need help on every other position.
Either Wizards/Rockets take Dillingham or he falls to #8 for us.

We got to get a wing with #4, those three behind us will all want wings.

[skin27]

Asuar laughed when the pistons got the 5th pick:lmao

[Seventyniner]

https://twitter.com/tom_orsborn/status/1789740930607579492

Last year, once the first 3 balls had been picked, 6 of the remaining 11 would have sent Victor to the Wizards. Only 1 of those 11 balls would give the Spurs the #1 pick and sure enough it came up.

Having big numbers like 10 and 14 makes it much more likely that teams lower in the lottery order like the Hawks and Rockets move up.

I'm guessing the last ball was something like 11 or 12.

[John B]

Imo, this is how it goes:
Hawks: Would be really surprising if they don't take Sarr.
Wizards: They need everything, I'm hoping they don't pick Risacher.
Rockets: They got plenty of wings. Clingan or a point guard for FVV to mentor.
Spurs: Risacher or the next best wing.
Pistons: Sheppard because he fits nicely with Cade or a wing.
Hornets: Anything other than a point guard.
Blazers: Same as Hornets.
Spurs: Point guard.


I don't think PATFO should go for a point guard with #4 because Pistons Hornets and Blazers surely won't pick one, except for maybe Pistons taking Sheppard.
But all of them need wings and Spurs' preferred wings won't be available at #8.

Risacher would be ideal with #4 and then a point guard with #8.
Although I wouldn't have anything against two wings, just don't pick a point guard with #4.

I rather Wizards taking Risacher than Rockets getting him. I’m starting to hate Rockets more and more, and Ime making them better makes it worst.

[BacktoBasics]

Since lottery was a big shakeup, things change.
Cade, Lamelo, Scoot are cornerstones of three franchises picking after our 4th pick. No way they're taking Dillingham when they need help on every other position.
Either Wizards/Rockets take Dillingham or he falls to #8 for us.

We got to get a wing with #4, those three behind us will all want wings.

This is a fair argument but the counter argument is that when you suck you don’t draft out of need. You go with the best prospect and work out the roster logistics later.

[slick'81]

Spurs about to reload big time

[freetiago]

I was pessimistic thinking we’d just get a low pick and Toronto wouldn’t convey. This is basically as close to best case scenario as the odds could have gone. Now it’s in Brian Wrongs hands

[Budkin]

Awesome lottery for us!

[SouthernFryd]

Sheppard is more a Stockton type, while Dillingham is more an Iverson type. I always preferred the stockton, team first, style. But Iverson was a monster. Wouldn't be unhappy with either.

Not as impressed with Risacher as most here. Prefer a Clingham type, especially if we get Dillingham. If we get Sheppard, then maybe add a more offensive/shooter type.

Gonna be interesting.