[2024 Draft Consensus Series] Who is SpursTalk’s #1 Prospect?

[Dejounte]

After this poll gets enough votes, I’ll make the next thread with the same set of prospects minus the one who gets the most votes in this thread, and so forth…

[Dejounte]

Maximum was 10. Had to make the decision of leaving out some prospects. The assumption here is if ANY of the listed prospects are there at 4, who would you pick?

[Degoat]

It’s a tough decision but for the spurs I think Risacher fits the mold of what we need the most.

[SpursFan86]

Sheppard

[Ariel]

Can't really say I have ONE favorite prospect... want some combination of upside and fit, shooting, playmaking and defense, and balancing the roster. To meet those, I'd go with Risacher or Castle at 4 (whomever is there because at most one will be available, if both are gone then Buzelis), then Dillingham at 4 with Sheppard as an alternative. Not really sold on anyone in particular as clearly above the rest, but would rather avoid unskilled, long term projects like Salaun who may take years of investment before even knowing if he's a keeper or not (we already have plenty of those).

[Dejounte]

Can't really say I have ONE favorite prospect... want some combination of upside and fit, shooting, playmaking and defense, and balancing the roster. To meet those, I'd go with Risacher or Castle at 4 (whomever is there because at most one will be available, if both are gone then Buzelis), then Dillingham at 4 with Sheppard as an alternative. Not really sold on anyone in particular as clearly above the rest, but would rather avoid unskilled, long term projects like Salaun who may take years of investment before even knowing if he's a keeper or not (we already have plenty of those).

Save your case when scenarios for the subsequent threads. Commit to one. Vote.

[scott]

Buzelis Sickos Club, checking in

[Pauleta14]

Risacher offers the less risks

[scottspurs]

Until the Spurs sniff the playoffs I want to draft upside and that’s definitely Buzelis

[BatManu20]

Bronny James

[BatManu20]

Until the Spurs sniff the playoffs I want to draft upside and that’s definitely Buzelis

Luka Samanic 2.0 tbh.

[spurraider21]

Luka Samanic 2.0 tbh.
i dont think samanic was an awful prospect. good physical profile, solid skills to work off of. should have been picked later than he was, but oh well. think a lot of his shortcomings are due to his attitude and the mental side of things.

[Cardinal]

Going to be painful when Salaun is the 4th pick tbh

[CGD]

Castle

[heyheymymy]

Castle is my favorite but Risacher is probably my #1 if you can get him easily.

Voted Castle because he's my personal subjective favorite, he's the best most realistically available pick at #4, and I just buy his upside when I watch his clips. Watched his whole tourney and a few reg season UCONN games and his feel for the game is insane. I also suspect UCONN team system subdued a lot of Castle's individual brilliance in the name of team just based on what he's doing in his HS tapes. I do worry about his shot coming around though.

Maybe the Finals were too recent but I see Castle as a Jrue Holiday type which would be nice on the Spurs team.

Feels like behind Vassell the guard situation is more barren than it appears. Jones may be rolling off after the year and wary of counting on Branham and co to turn that corner which is possible but I'd rather stuff some depth there and feel like Castle is an intuitive player enough that he will contribute in small ways even right away. Lots of those 2/2/8 games where he was everywhere and doing a lot of little support things that feel beneficial to the team but maybe not popping the box score so much.

[AFBlue]

Chose Sheppard for the shot, feel and defensive production. Would be happy with Castle, Risacher or Sarr at #4 as well.

[spurraider21]

i voted risacher but i have each of Risacher, Sheppard, and Dillingham in my top tier. the reason i'd say i prefer Risacher is because there is no world where we can take him at 8, but we can probably get Dilly at 8

[BacktoBasics]

Save your case when scenarios for the subsequent threads. Commit to one. Vote.

So you’re basing this on player not draft position? IE there is almost no chance that Sarr is there at 4 but he may very well be the spurs number 1 prospect.

Do I select based on our pick position or select as if we had the 1st pick and that is my number one on my big board.

[Dejounte]

So you’re basing this on player not draft position? IE there is almost no chance that Sarr is there at 4 but he may very well be the spurs number 1 prospect.

Do I select based on our pick position or select as if we had the 1st pick and that is my number one on my big board.

Purely personal board. Don’t choose who you think the Spurs have as their number 1. Pick the guy you want most.

[scottspurs]

I would rather draft a bust than a role player at this point in time.

[scottspurs]

Don’t draft scared

[rascal]

Sheppard

So you would draft Sheppard first if you had the first pick?

[rascal]

It’s a tough decision but for the spurs I think Risacher fits the mold of what we need the most.

He's soft, no shot creation, going to the basket is weak

[scottspurs]

1. Buzelis
2. Sarr
3. Cody Williams
4. Salaun
5. Risacher
6. Dillingham
7. Castle
8. Sheppard
9. Devin Carter
10. Tristan Da Silva
11. Topic
12 Knecht

these are the 12 I would be happy with the spurs drafting in order

[objective]

Wrex.

[PhantomDashCam]

Damn, this is tough.

If we were starting in a team building vacuum, I’d pick Sarr or Buzelis.
Since we are not though, I’m going with Commander Sheppard.

[stnick2261]

hard for me to choose one. I'm not sure who I would choose out of Sarr, Risacher, Castle or Sheppard. I chose Sarr for defensive potential next to Wemby, but really see all 4 as equal.

[BatManu20]

i dont think samanic was an awful prospect. good physical profile, solid skills to work off of. should have been picked later than he was, but oh well. think a lot of his shortcomings are due to his attitude and the mental side of things.

For sure. Was half-joking. Samanic had a lot of natural ability to go with his 6’11 frame. Could’ve been a serviceable player with the right development. Dude just didn’t give a shit about basketball. Still remember the pathetic defensive effort that got him cut from the team the following day :lol

[SpursFan86]

So you would draft Sheppard first if you had the first pick?

As the Spurs’ GM, yeah. I think another team might choose to go with someone like Sarr or Risacher since it can be argued those guys have a higher ceiling to be a #1 guy you build around…but the Spurs already have Wembanyama.

That doesn’t mean I don’t care about ceiling; I just think it changes things. I’m willing to accept a lower ceiling in exchange for someone who so clearly fits what this team desperately needs + has a super high floor. Also, I still think Sheppard has a pretty high ceiling…it’s not like his best case scenario is being a role player who never averages > 15 ppg or something. He absolutely has all-star in his range of outcomes.

[offset formation]

Buzelis is my pick. A guard with hops that can defend and has a 3 ball upside.

[SpursFan86]

i voted risacher but i have each of Risacher, Sheppard, and Dillingham in my top tier. the reason i'd say i prefer Risacher is because there is no world where we can take him at 8, but we can probably get Dilly at 8

This is a very fair take…but I personally would still lean Sheppard + Holland over Risacher + Dillingham.

Sheppard + Holland
Risacher + Dillingham
Castle + Dillingham

Any of those 3 outcomes would make me ecstatic tbh.

[Pauleta14]

i dont think samanic was an awful prospect. good physical profile, solid skills to work off of. should have been picked later than he was, but oh well. think a lot of his shortcomings are due to his attitude and the mental side of things.

It's agreat description of Buzelis tbh :lol

[spurraider21]

This is a very fair take…but I personally would still lean Sheppard + Holland over Risacher + Dillingham.

Sheppard + Holland
Risacher + Dillingham
Castle + Dillingham

Any of those 3 outcomes would make me ecstatic tbh.
id like each of those as well

the latter might be the only scenario where i like taking castle at 4, since i know he wont just be jammed into the PG position. i like castle the player, i dont like castle the "point guard"

[DAF86]

As the Spurs’ GM, yeah. I think another team might choose to go with someone like Sarr or Risacher since it can be argued those guys have a higher ceiling to be a #1 guy you build around…but the Spurs already have Wembanyama.

That doesn’t mean I don’t care about ceiling; I just think it changes things. I’m willing to accept a lower ceiling in exchange for someone who so clearly fits what this team desperately needs + has a super high floor. Also, I still think Sheppard has a pretty high ceiling…it’s not like his best case scenario is being a role player who never averages > 15 ppg or something. He absolutely has all-star in his range of outcomes.

Yeah, folks are completely writing off Sheppard as a potential all-star and it's funny, tbh. There's a scenario there where Sheppard becomes the best shooter in the entire league, develops on what he already showed as a playmaker and provides a high number of steals and blocks. 20/7/2/1 on 50/40/90 shooting splits isn't a pipe dream for this kid.

[Pauleta14]

1. Buzelis
2. Sarr
3. Cody Williams
4. Salaun
5. Risacher
6. Dillingham
7. Castle
8. Sheppard
9. Devin Carter
10. Tristan Da Silva
11. Topic
12 Knecht

these are the 12 I would be happy with the spurs drafting in order

You're the 1st I see wanting Buzelis as 1st choice. Please sell it to me...

Especially in regards of his shooting, bad motor and lackadaisical attitude in competition with Ignite.

I could be wrong about him but he checks so many red flags in my views as of now so I'm curious to know what's appealing to you.

Thx

[DAF86]

My big board for #4:

1-A Risacher / 1-B Sheppard

3-Castle
4-Buzelis

The only reason I don't have Dillingham over Castle and Buzelis, it's because I think he will be there at #8.

[rascal]

As the Spurs’ GM, yeah. I think another team might choose to go with someone like Sarr or Risacher since it can be argued those guys have a higher ceiling to be a #1 guy you build around…but the Spurs already have Wembanyama.

That doesn’t mean I don’t care about ceiling; I just think it changes things. I’m willing to accept a lower ceiling in exchange for someone who so clearly fits what this team desperately needs + has a super high floor. Also, I still think Sheppard has a pretty high ceiling…it’s not like his best case scenario is being a role player who never averages > 15 ppg or something. He absolutely has all-star in his range of outcomes.

I don't believe Sheppard will ever be an all star.

Name all the small white guards who don't have the handle and dribbling skills to be a lead pg who have made the all star game.

[spurraider21]

My big board for #4:

1-A Risacher / 1-B Sheppard

3-Castle
4-Buzelis

The only reason I don't have Dillingham over Castle and Buzelis, it's because I think he will be there at #8.
thats pretty close to what ive got

Risacher
Sheppard
Dillingham (but as you said, seems very likely that if he's there at 4, he'd still be there at 8)
Sarr (i know the fit isnt obvious, but id bet on the talent at that point)
Castle (not as a PG)

Castle is weird to me. like, taking Castle/Dillingham would make me really happy. but taking Castle and a wing would make me sad because i dont believe in the Castle PG thing

[Leetonidas]

Risacher
Castle
Sheppard
Dillingham
Sarr

[SpursFan86]

I don't believe Sheppard will ever be an all star.

I mean it’s entirely possible he won’t, but I don’t think it takes a crazy imagination at all to envision him being an all-star. I’d argue his chances of being an all-star are pretty much as high as anyone’s in this draft.

It’s the “ultra tail” probability outcome of becoming an all-NBA or lead guy on a title team that might be lower for Sheppard than a few others in the draft…but again, considering we have Wemby that’s just less of an emphasis IMO. Plus it’s not like anyone in this draft is projecting to be that type of guy either, it’s a pretty big long shot for all of these guys.

[rascal]

Yeah, folks are completely writing off Sheppard as a potential all-star and it's funny, tbh. There's a scenario there where Sheppard becomes the best shooter in the entire league, develops on what he already showed as a playmaker and provides a high number of steals and blocks. 20/7/2/1 on 50/40/90 shooting splits isn't a pipe dream for this kid.

Watching his highlights, nothing all that special in his game. His numbers won't be anything anywhere near what he put up in college in the NBA.

[DAF86]

thats pretty close to what ive got

Risacher
Sheppard
Dillingham (but as you said, seems very likely that if he's there at 4, he'd still be there at 8)
Sarr (i know the fit isnt obvious, but id bet on the talent at that point)
Castle (not as a PG)

Castle is weird to me. like, taking Castle/Dillingham would make me really happy. but taking Castle and a wing would make me sad because i dont believe in the Castle PG thing

I actually disagree on the Castle PG thing. I have a lot of doubts Castle can actually develop a reliable jumper, but if the Spurs do pick him, he needs to develop it to stick in the league.

If he does develop his shot, then his entire arsenal as a playmaker opens up. The biggest sell on Castle is his size for the PG position, if he's just another wing, then meh.

Also, let's say he never develops a reliable 3pt shot, but he does develop a good mid range jumper. Even a bigger reason to want him with the ball on his hands (ala Tony Parker), instead of being ignored off-ball on the wing.

I don't know, I'm constantly flip-flopping with Castle. If someone told me he would be able to develop his shot to at least average levels, then he would be my #1 pick no doubt; but after trying to buy into his jumper, I just saw many UCCON games where he shot some ugly ass airballs while being wide ass open. He has some serious issues on that form. But then again, I heard he ended up shooting 90% from the line in his last games and I go back to wanting to believe. It's all a mess. :lol

[DAF86]

Watching his highlights, nothing all that special in his game. His numbers won't be anything anywhere near what he put up in college in the NBA.

Sheppard will be a top 5 pick, he will put up better numbers in the NBA for 2 reasons:

1) He will probably play more (if he goes to a team like the Spurs, maybe not so much in a team like the Rockets).

2) The NBA game is way more open. He will get more open looks and he will have more space to attack the basket and throw passes.

[rascal]

Sheppard will be a top 5 pick, he will put up better numbers in the NBA for 2 reasons:

1) He will probably play more (if he goes to a team like the Spurs, maybe not so much in a team like the Rockets).

2) The NBA game is way more open. He will get more open looks and he will have more space to attack the basket and throw passes.

He won't put up better numbers in the NBA. He'll be coming off the bench in the NBA for his shooting but he isn't dynamic enough with athleticism to be a starter.

He doesn't have the dribbling skills like a John Stockton or Steve Nash or Mark Price, those guys were real lead guys, Sheppard is not.

[Ariel]

Castle is my favorite but Risacher is probably my #1 if you can get him easily.

Voted Castle because he's my personal subjective favorite, he's the best most realistically available pick at #4, and I just buy his upside when I watch his clips. Watched his whole tourney and a few reg season UCONN games and his feel for the game is insane. I also suspect UCONN team system subdued a lot of Castle's individual brilliance in the name of team just based on what he's doing in his HS tapes. I do worry about his shot coming around though.

Maybe the Finals were too recent but I see Castle as a Jrue Holiday type which would be nice on the Spurs team.
This very closely represents how I feel as well. Both Castle and Risacher are not without ther flaws, but in a class full of uncertainly they're guys who, at a young age, have proven they can play basketball at a high level and have tangible skills that can translate. I can see the Castle / Jrue comparisons with an even bigger ceiling if he can shoot at Jrue like levels, and Risacher could be somewhere between Trey Murphy and Cam Johnson with the potential for much more if he develops on ball skills. The third guy I'd consider is Buzelis because he's an archetype you can rarely find (big, skilled combo forward with the potential to create and shoot) and if he pans out it's a home run, but there's less evidence of production in meaningful games. The other guy I'd have in the same batch is Dillingham, but I'm fairly certain he'll be available at 8 so I won't consider him at 4.

So for me (as of today) it's: 4a Stephon Castle, 4b Risacher, 4c Buzelis, 8a Dillingham, 8b Sheppard, 8c Devin Carter

To play along with Dejounte's premise I'll go ahead and reply Castle, but honestly I go back and forth and cannot confidently make my mind. Whomever the FO would take among those would be good in my book. I'd only be pissed / concerned if they took a huge unnecessary risk (Salaun), a dying archetype with fit concerns (Clingan), reach (e.g., Carrington at 4), or fail to address basic needs in terms of skills and positions (no shooting, no wings / lead guard, etc). But this draft is really tough, I wouldn't be shocked if Tyler Smith and Pacome Dadiet end up better than Sarr and Risacher respectively. Total crapshoot.

[scottspurs]

You're the 1st I see wanting Buzelis as 1st choice. Please sell it to me...

Especially in regards of his shooting, bad motor and lackadaisical attitude in competition with Ignite.

I could be wrong about him but he checks so many red flags in my views as of now so I'm curious to know what's appealing to you.

Thx

6’8” Athletes like him are rare. He has solid fundamentals. Plays defense. I don’t blame him for any of his ignite tape there is a reason they are getting rid of that program. I’m not as worried about shooting when it comes to a 19 year old. At that age you lack the functional strength to put up a smooth nba 3-pt shot. He has a really smooth game and I like his confidence on the court. Seems like he has a good head on his shoulders in his interviews. Developed properly I think he has more potential than anyone in this draft. If the shot comes he will be a star. He can play the 3/4 and potentially small ball 5 when he puts on more strength. I want the spurs to build a team with more length and not just say well we have wemby back there. The more length the better in my opinion. Add on his athleticism and feel for the game and I just liked him better than anyone else in this class.

[DAF86]

He won't put up better numbers in the NBA. He'll be coming off the bench in the NBA for his shooting but he isn't dynamic enough with athleticism to be a starter.

He doesn't have the dribbling skills like a John Stockton or Steve Nash or Mark Price, those guys were real lead guys, Sheppard is not.

His dribbling skills are fine, you make it sound as if he were Danny Green, who, btw, played well over a decade as a starter.

There are lots of starting guards in the NBA with less dribbling skills than Sheppard, and none shoot it like him. He will be a plus player for his entire career. Maybe the surest thing in this entire draft, tbh.

[Spurs Homer]

Buzelis was my #1 choice

Dilly #2


above all others

[itzsoweezee]

I’d be happy with any of these guys, other than Topic. So many red flags about that dude.

[SOMA Spur]

1. Risacher
2. Sarr
3. Castle
4a. Carter 4b. Sheppard

Love to walk out of this thing with Risacher/Carter. Or Castle/Carter.

[Ignazzz]

Sarr

[duncan2150]

Castle then risacher then sheppard (i don't count sarr)

[RC_Drunkford]

I got Risacher at #1, Castle #2

[Dejounte]

Last call for votes before I make the next thread.

[Joseph Kony]

Tossup between Castle and Risacher...gun to my head, probably Castle

[scottspurs]

Wow I’m surprised so many people have Risacher number 1 overall. I don’t dislike him but I’m still looking for the highest upside players if I’m the Spurs

[AFBlue]

Wow I’m surprised so many people have Risacher number 1 overall. I don’t dislike him but I’m still looking for the highest upside players if I’m the Spurs

I didn't vote for him, but I get it. We started Julian Champagnie at the 3 last year. Every prospect playing that position has questionable shooting or defense, except for him. If he's locked into a "3&D" floor, that's still pretty useful for this team.

[Mr. Body]

Wow I’m surprised so many people have Risacher number 1 overall. I don’t dislike him but I’m still looking for the highest upside players if I’m the Spurs

I don't either. Guessing it's just people who have seen amateur mocks and think he's a better player than he is.

If the team goes for Risacher and misses Castle that'll be a big mistake.

[Mr. Body]

I didn't vote for him, but I get it. We started Julian Champagnie at the 3 last year. Every prospect playing that position has questionable shooting or defense, except for him. If he's locked into a "3&D" floor, that's still pretty useful for this team.


Potentially useful is not what you want from a high lottery pick. I still don't see what Risacher does much better than Julian to warrant the #4.

[LeBowen]

I don't either. Guessing it's just people who have seen amateur mocks and think he's a better player than he is.

If the team goes for Risacher and misses Castle that'll be a big mistake.

I voted for Castle, but Risacher would be my second choice.

He's the only player in this draft with three most important skills in today's game.
Size, shooting and defense.

[rascal]

Risacher's self creation isn't strong and I don't want the Spurs to burn a top draft pick for a sf with poor self creation. Spurs need the 2 and 3 to be strong self creators on offense.

[Mr. Body]

I voted for Castle, but Risacher would be my second choice.

He's the only player in this draft with three most important skills in today's game.
Size, shooting and defense.

Size. What does he use this for? Getting shots off, otherwise not much? Wingspan is just okay, not a rebounder.

Defense. His advanced numbers are actually poor, but eye test he's pretty good. Far from a stopper or much different than a Cody Williams, imm, a positional defender rather than a plus defender.

Shooting. Not sure I believe in this. I can easily see it not translating, in which case what do you even have here? If he is a good shooter at the next level, we're not looking at a Klay Thompson, we're not looking at a volume scorer.

Just dunno. I'd be fine taking him at 8, but probably not over a guy like Carter. I would only be okay taking him at 4 if we get a better player at 8. Really think Risacher is around 8-10 in this draft.

[rascal]

I don't either. Guessing it's just people who have seen amateur mocks and think he's a better player than he is.

If the team goes for Risacher and misses Castle that'll be a big mistake.

Yes

I would take Castle at 4 over Risacher. Spurs will find a better SF in the 25 draft which is stacked with SF.

[LeBowen]

Size. What does he use this for? Getting shots off, otherwise not much?

Defense? He's not a big wing, but he's the only wing with defensive upside and a reliable shot.


Defense. His advanced numbers are actually poor, but eye test he's pretty good. Far from a stopper or much different than a Cody Williams, imm, a positional defender rather than a plus defender.

Eye test is way more important for defense, imo. And he was a teenager defending pros in a serious league.
He can develop into a very good defender.


Shooting. Not sure I believe in this. I can easily see it not translating, in which case what do you even have here? If he is a good shooter at the next level, we're not looking at a Klay Thompson, we're not looking at a volume scorer.

This is just whataboutism.
His shot not translating is a valid concern, but if you're concerned about his shot not translating, then you can't be positive about Castle ever developing a shot. Either or.
His 35% from deep doesn't look amazing, but 45% of his shots were from 3pt. As I said in Salaun topic, that's whay different from someone being left wide open, dared to shoot and still barely shooting 30%.

He most likely won't develop into an elite 3pt shooter, but chances of him becoming an elite shooter are certainly bigger than Castle/Holland becoming solid shooters.
Every single player in this draft has huge question marks. It's up to PATFO to decide who can develop the best. That's what they're paid for. We're just fans making projections based off very limited data.

[AFBlue]

Potentially useful is not what you want from a high lottery pick. I still don't see what Risacher does much better than Julian to warrant the #4.

I didn't say POTENTIALLY useful. His skill set IS useful as a base to build from. Every other wing in this range requires projection to get to his baseline. And, don't forget this kid is also still just 19. It's not like he doesn't have a pathway or timeline to project beyond role player.

[z0sa]

Castle isn't exciting for me at 4 at all. Another guy who will pass up open 3's, everyone will sag off of him and that will be good enough to shut him down if he has the ball, they'll learn in 2 or 3 possessions that he's looking to cut off ball and that will be that ... no thanks.

Risacher all day. At least he can burn you from 3 and play defense and is French. Wemby running with another Frenchman has value points.

[rascal]

Wemby running with another Frenchman has value points.

No it doesn't.

Draft the best players regardless where they are from.

[poopbox]

Yeah, folks are completely writing off Sheppard as a potential all-star and it's funny, tbh. There's a scenario there where Sheppard becomes the best shooter in the entire league, develops on what he already showed as a playmaker and provides a high number of steals and blocks. 20/7/2/1 on 50/40/90 shooting splits isn't a pipe dream for this kid.

Don't think people are writing off Shepperd. I just don't think there is a realistic way for the Spurs to get in front of Houston to get him.

[z0sa]

No it doesn't.

Draft the best players regardless where they are from.

In the locker room, it does - two young men from the same country in a far away place striking up a friendship is almost a cliche. You're tactless but even you should know that.

Now, I agree that we should draft the BPA, regardless of country of origin. Part of being the BPA is potential for high chemistry on and off the court with our young French superstar.

It's like saying the Robinson/Rodman relationship in the locker room shouldn't matter. In a vacuum, sure. In real life, we all know what actually happened.