******* Official All-Inclusive 2024 Election Night Thread ******* [Archive]

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Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 04:20 PM

Had to make a new one because the original one I made last year unfortunately features Biden vs. Trump, "The Rematch".

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/FL_TheChoice2024HarrisvsTrump_signatureart-1024x576.jpg

Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 05:09 PM

September 2024 Prediction (Millennial_Messiah)

HARRIS vs. TRUMP

https://i.imgur.com/6geAGdS.jpeg

ALGORITHM:

Safe: >=15.0 %
Likely: 5.0 <= x < 15.0 %
Lean: 1.5 <= x < 5.0 %
Tilt: < 1.5 %

Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 05:25 PM

SENATE PREDICTION

(Some of these results may buck the polls and come as a bit of a surprise, but they keep in-line with historical trends of GOP candidates in certain states overperforming Trump and/or the top of the presidential ticket, while in states like Arizona, and, to an extent, Montana, underperform, but not by as much as you might think or the polls might tell you.)

https://i.imgur.com/zKCzwUR.jpeg

Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 05:47 PM

Winehole23

09-19-2024, 05:51 PM

good luck, MM

if any of these predictions turn out to be right, you'll break your streak of being wrong every time!

Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 06:55 PM

good luck, MM

if any of these predictions turn out to be right, you'll break your streak of being wrong every time!
Will Hunting your weigh - in on these.

Will Hunting

09-19-2024, 07:18 PM

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) your weigh - in on these.
I have no idea what to make of the presidential race. Not gonna try to guess and even if it’s wrong I think your prediction is reasonable so not gonna make fun of it after the fact. I think it’s about as much of a coin flip as a race can get. Gun to my head Id have said Trump before the debate but Harris seems to have momentum now.

As far as senate I’m fairly confident then Dems end up with 49 seats. A poll of MT’s first district came out today that was horrible for Tester but Sherrod Brown is polling well and I have it on decent authority that he’s got a lot of oppo research on Moreno that should be dropping soon. Gallego would probably be the underdog if he was against a conventional tax cuts Republican but he’s up against radical lesbian Kari Lake. Then there’s Nevada where Jackie Rosen isn’t losing to Freddie Kruger. I think the Michigan race was very winnable for Rs but they’re not sinking any money into it or taking it seriously. Casey and Baldwin I also think are just too strong as incumbents to lose even though McCormick and Hovde aren’t bad candidates.

Will Hunting

09-19-2024, 07:31 PM

HOUSE PREDICTION

I don't know why this would be an unreasonable prediction. I don't buy the "NY is going to decide the House" narrative. There's room for both sides to grow and lose, but certain incumbents are positioned well, and the presidential ticket should carry the direction of the open seats that don't have an incumbent.

https://i.imgur.com/waQw83e.jpeg
OK your presidential map is fine but this is I think a ridiculous prediction. The party that just had a midterm turnout advantage rarely gains more seats 2 years later (the last time it happened was 2008 which was obviously a unique circumstance). Every other presidential election recently has had the party that just made midterm gains losing seats (2012 Rs lost seats, 2016 Rs lost seats, 2020 Ds lost seats).

-The MD-06 prediction makes no sense. It's a seat Biden won by double digits and it has too many blue Montgomery County suburbs to flip red.
-I'm not sure why Rs refuse to give up hope on NM-02 but if they couldn't hold it as the incumbent in 2022 they're not flipping it this year.
-It's hard to see the map so I can't tell if this is what you have but I don't see any reason that the Akron seat flips either.
-This very well could happen but Kildee's, Slotkin's, Wild's and Carwright's seat all flipping red would require a bad rustbelt environment for Dems that the polls don't indicate.
-Perfectly fair to predict WA-03 and ME-02 flip but I don't see it. Both seats have great incumbents, and Golden's opponent is the worst one he's ever faced.
-Arizona I'm fairly pessimistic and don't think the Dems flip either close district but having the Tucson district flipping is fair, my pessimism is more re: Schweikert's seat
-Predicting Rs hold every red seat in CA isn't unreasonable but it just indicates an environment more red than what polls show.

Long story short a lot of very close house races that are gonna be decided by the environment, which is why my thinking is that whatever party takes the White House is probably taking the house too, but I don't see any scenario where either party has less than 210 house seats. No matter which side wins the house it's gonna be a slim majority.

Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 08:11 PM

OK your presidential map is fine but this is I think a ridiculous prediction. The party that just had a midterm turnout advantage rarely gains more seats 2 years later (the last time it happened was 2008 which was obviously a unique circumstance). Every other presidential election recently has had the party that just made midterm gains losing seats (2012 Rs lost seats, 2016 Rs lost seats, 2020 Ds lost seats).

-The MD-06 prediction makes no sense. It's a seat Biden won by double digits and it has too many blue Montgomery County suburbs to flip red.
-I'm not sure why Rs refuse to give up hope on NM-02 but if they couldn't hold it as the incumbent in 2022 they're not flipping it this year.
-It's hard to see the map so I can't tell if this is what you have but I don't see any reason that the Akron seat flips either.
-This very well could happen but Kildee's, Slotkin's, Wild's and Carwright's seat all flipping red would require a bad rustbelt environment for Dems that the polls don't indicate.
-Perfectly fair to predict WA-03 and ME-02 flip but I don't see it. Both seats have great incumbents, and Golden's opponent is the worst one he's ever faced.
-Arizona I'm fairly pessimistic and don't think the Dems flip either close district but having the Tucson district flipping is fair, my pessimism is more re: Schweikert's seat
-Predicting Rs hold every red seat in CA isn't unreasonable but it just indicates an environment more red than what polls show.

Long story short a lot of very close house races that are gonna be decided by the environment, which is why my thinking is that whatever party takes the White House is probably taking the house too, but I don't see any scenario where either party has less than 210 house seats. No matter which side wins the house it's gonna be a slim majority.

Perfectly reasonable analysis, but my justification is:

-The MD-06 prediction makes no sense. It's a seat Biden won by double digits and it has too many blue Montgomery County suburbs to flip red.

Perfectly fair to make this point, but it's also an open seat where I do expect Hogan to lose by less than 15% and have some down-ballot coattails (not up-ballot; Trump will get killed there). Aside from Andy Harris's seat, this is by far the reddest seat in MD, with the western panhandle being WV-level dark-red, albeit less populated.

-I'm not sure why Rs refuse to give up hope on NM-02 but if they couldn't hold it as the incumbent in 2022 they're not flipping it this year.

I don't agree with this, personally. I believe this is the cycle NM turns a proverbial corner to the right on the presidential level, and down-ballot Domenici surprises by losing statewide by only a lean margin; energy is a major issue in this district and with the Latino-American male population heavily trending Trump/GOP, and Harrell being the ex-incumbent, I do see this region flipping back red. The state will still be on the blue side especially areas north of ABQ.

-It's hard to see the map so I can't tell if this is what you have but I don't see any reason that the Akron seat flips either.

It could go either way, but you have a weak, young, vulnerable first-term incumbent who won rather narrowly against a Boebert-esque GOP candidate in an open 2022 election there, and that part of Ohio is zooming red. On the flipside, I could definitely see the Cincinnati seat zoom blue, though, especially since the Dems now have the incumbency and knocked off a very difficult GOP incumbent in 2022.

-This very well could happen but Kildee's, Slotkin's, Wild's and Carwright's seat all flipping red would require a bad rustbelt environment for Dems that the polls don't indicate.

It's very possible the Dems hold 1 or more of these on a good night (Harris victory night, likely), but this is a product and function of the national environment. Both MI seats are open, while both PA seats are held by vulnerable incumbents in red-trending areas that won last time out largely on the backs of the up-ballot candidates (Fetterman, and, to a lesser extent, Shapiro). It's in-line with my Trump "tilt R" PA prediction and my McCormick (very low, I think around 1.7-1.9%) "lean R" prediction. I do have DeLuzio holding the Beaver County west of Pittsburgh seat, to be fair, even though that might be one of the two or so places McCormick outperforms Trump IMO. As for the Michigan seats, the margin by which the GOP lost them in 2022 to incumbents was much less than the top of the ticket (I agree governor isn't the best indicator, but that's all we have for Michigan in 2022) and now both seats are completely open. Kildee in particular was a major performer, but the Dems would have to win Michigan by a lot up and down the ballot to hold that seat, for instance. And keep in mind the rust belt polls underestimated Trump and the Senate candidates bad in 2016 and 2020, and the Senate candidates in the rust belt for the GOP not only way overperformed polling but also slightly overperformed Trump, which is also why I have Moreno winning Ohio by a lean margin even if he's a below-average candidate.

-Perfectly fair to predict WA-03 and ME-02 flip but I don't see it. Both seats have great incumbents, and Golden's opponent is the worst one he's ever faced.

WA-03 is a red district at the federal level, and Trump on the ballot carries Joe Kent to victory here. There was a lot of infighting on the GOP side in 2022, and you've got a one-term vulnerable incumbent again here. To be fair, I also have OR-05 flipping from red to blue for VERY similar reasons, to balance this out. As far as ME-02 if Golden wins it's only because of ranked-choice voting, and he could absolutely hold on narrowly, but his gun comments last year are anathema to that part of Maine which will go to Trump by quite a comfortable margin. Also, I vehemently disagree on Theriault being worse than Poliquin; Bruce Poliquin is the one who was objectively the worst candidate for that district, being a non-populist, tax-cuts, old "Arizona GOP" McCain-esque type that is a horrible fit for that district (but maybe a better fit for New Hampshire). Theriault may be the inexperienced young NASCAR guy but he's baggage-free unlike someone like a Madison G Gilbert of 2022. I expect it to go down to the wire. If Trump has a good enough night he's carrying ME-02 by 10%+ which gives Theriault the upper hand even accounting for ranked-choice voting. To be fair, I have NE-02 flipping blue to essentially balance this out, and a lot of Dems are pessimistic about taking out Don Bacon but once again I think top-of-ticket is too much for Bacon this time. If not, he loses in 2026.

-Arizona I'm fairly pessimistic and don't think the Dems flip either close district but having the Tucson district flipping is fair, my pessimism is more re: Schweikert's seat

Yeah, I don't expect Schweikert to lose this time around, but watch for a potential flip there in 2026. He's a tough incumbent like a Steve Chabot type and very vocal in the House himself but even that wasn't enough to save Chabot from urban sprawl in Cincinnati in a relative regional blue-wave midterm, so we'll see. The east Tucson district could go either way, I just see a vulnerable one-term incumbent in a state that I have Kamala and Gallego both winning so it makes sense for me to put this as as a blue flip. If I had Trump winning, the GOP incumbent probably narrowly holds, IMO, and may lose in 2026.

-Predicting Rs hold every red seat in CA isn't unreasonable but it just indicates an environment more red than what polls show.

Polls consistently underestimate the GOP down-ballot in California, especially recently, look at 2022. I don't think many people had Duarte winning in the first place on their bingo card, but now he's a fairly rock-solid, moderate Reagan-style CA-GOP Latino perfectly tailored to that region similar to Valadao. To be fair, I have the Dems holding Katie Porter's vulnerable open seat, which is a toss up and it seems like moderate Orange County has turned a bit of a corner back towards the GOP over Newsom's and local far-left policy. I could see the GOP picking up this seat, as incumbent Porter only won this by 3.1% in 2022 and now there's no incumbent, but I have the other LA metro GOP incumbents holding so I picked the Dems for CA-47 to be fair. These are all definitely fairly heavy split-ticket districts, in favor of both the Democrat presidential candidate and the down-ballot Republican, so keep that in mind.

Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 09:05 PM

I have no idea what to make of the presidential race. Not gonna try to guess and even if it’s wrong I think your prediction is reasonable so not gonna make fun of it after the fact. I think it’s about as much of a coin flip as a race can get. Gun to my head Id have said Trump before the debate but Harris seems to have momentum now.

As far as senate I’m fairly confident then Dems end up with 49 seats. A poll of MT’s first district came out today that was horrible for Tester but Sherrod Brown is polling well and I have it on decent authority that he’s got a lot of oppo research on Moreno that should be dropping soon. Gallego would probably be the underdog if he was against a conventional tax cuts Republican but he’s up against radical lesbian Kari Lake. Then there’s Nevada where Jackie Rosen isn’t losing to Freddie Kruger. I think the Michigan race was very winnable for Rs but they’re not sinking any money into it or taking it seriously. Casey and Baldwin I also think are just too strong as incumbents to lose even though McCormick and Hovde aren’t bad candidates.
-I don't see Tester doing much better than Steve Bullock did. Pre-polarization, he'd stand a chance, but expecting a massive federal to federal split ticketing even in a state that's historically known for it 2012 and before in this era is too folly. The key to remember is that Tester won re-election in a low turnout midterm in 2018 by 3.6% where the voter turnout pool was Trump + 3.0%. That would, in theory, signal a 6.6% split-ticket factor, very much exactly in-line with Trump's performance over Biden (Trump + 16%), versus Daines' performance over Bullock (Daines + 10%), netting a larger sample size of an almost exactly like result there, in the polarized era where up-ballot partisan lean on a presidential ballot means far more than something like incumbency. You give Tester a point or two for being a three-term incumbent but subtract them when you realize that his last victory was against a scandal-plagued Rosendale. I'd expect Tester to overperform Harris by 6-8% and lose by high single digits to Sheehy.

-I don't look too deeply into the polls favoring Brown in Ohio at the moment. He's a three-term incumbent, sure, and he's politically and optically very similar to Tim Ryan, who performed well in 2022. However, the sink-shipper for Brown is that he's on a presidential ballot in a state that zoomed red off a cliff in 2016 and has since had trends in both directions in opposite parts of the state, and to boot Moreno, even though I think he's a Blake Masters-tier candidate (certainly not Oz or Walker tier), has already proven to be an overperformer in the primary against Dolan et al., performing very well in Youngstown and surrounding regions that are must-win if Brown wants any semblance of a chance to win a fourth term in a state Kamala will likely lose by near or low double digits. And then you add in Springfield which is sure to move the state even further to the right, as if East Palestine isn't enough. The state GOP is pissed with DeWine and are trying to gather votes to impeach/recall him in 2025, but acknowledge they have an election to win first. I do think Brown will outperform Harris, not due to his incumbency but due to Moreno being a little too polarizing and Vance-esque, by around 4-5%, but it won't be enough. Polls will be polls, but any opposition research on Moreno won't be enough to produce a massive enough federal-vis-a-vis-federal ticket-split in a state where historically Trump actually underperforms the down-ballot federal. Either way, GOP flip, and also justifying my OH-13 flip prediction. (I wanted to flip OH-09 bad but even on a presidential level and not facing Majewski, it's just too much to predict 20-term incumbent Kaptur to lose at this time.)

-Pennsylvania is the one Senate seat I see coming up aces perhaps a little out of the blue for McCormick, a seat that was an afterthought for a long time because Casey has always been seen until recently as this juggernaut incumbent. But, if my Trump+1(ish) prediction in PA holds true, McCormick IMO wins by an even slightly higher margin. Recall that the last time Trump ran with a PA Senate race on the ballot, Pat Toomey overperformed Trump by 0.8%. Sure, incumbent and all. But the polls have actually been somewhat worrisome for Casey even compared to other purple-state senate races, and let's not underestimate the shy McCormick voter again after the near-miracle he pulled off in the primary on May 17th, 2022, even in the face of Trump, McConnell, and other big names stupidly endorsing Dr. Oz. McCormick is an overperformer. He will do very well and likely overperform Trump in exurban and suburban Pittsburgh, as well as the Philadelphia collar suburbs. I can see Casey slightly overperforming Harris in the Scranton area, but that may not be enough to negate that. The way that PA is set up, I don't expect much Trump/Casey ticket-splitting in the dark-red areas of the state. They turned out for McCormick in droves in 2022, and didn't turn out for Oz in the general. Those voters still exist. Some are more MAGA and some are less, but McCormick has a unique coalition and Lean R (maybe McCormick +1.7% is my call for now), but don't be shocked if mighty Casey strikes out this time. Heck, it's very likely that Fetterman is already the stronger of the two PA incumbent senators, due to his recent improvements as senator. Fetterman comes off as candid, like a more progressive Trump, and the average PA brute responds well to that. Casey comes off as an oligarch and elite. Outside of the high-education collar burbs, PA doesn't like that.

-As someone who actively works for this state party I actually have firsthand evidence to the contrary that the national and MI GOP are absolutely taking the Mike Rogers race seriously. I do think this state is the narrowest at the federal level and right now I have Kamala by about 0.2%. That said, Rogers is a quality candidate, very well qualified and polished overall, not a culture war hawk and doesn't reek of the Tudor Dixon/James Craig era nor the Rick Snyder era. He bridges the gap beautifully and even though Slotkin's team will inevitably outspend him, it won't be by as much as polls think and duly recall that John James slightly outperformed Trump in 2020, so that just might be enough to put Rogers just narrowly over the hump if Trump narrowly wins or narrowly loses by under a percentage point. Other than that, it's a pure toss up. Close to a coin flip. Could just as easily see Slotkin winning, especially if Kamala wins MI by over 1%.

-Eric Hovde is also a solid candidate and not a culture war hawk. I don't agree with either you or Bill O'Reilly that Baldwin is the strongest incumbent especially compared to someone like Klobuchar. You brought up lesbians? Kari Lake being a lesbian is at best funny with respect to her hairstyle and at worst outright fake news, but Baldwin is both a lesbian and a very far-left progressive with similar optics, tendencies, policies and voting habits as Elizabeth Warren. Of Massachusetts. She's a poor fit for the state as a whole. Better than Mandela Barnes? Yeah, but not a very high bar to clear. The issue for Republicans is that, well, Baldwin is a perfect fit for Madison, which has had massive increases in turnout, recently. WOW has overall shifted a bit left away from Trump to some extent and while I do think Hovde will overperform Trump by a point or so, bucking the polls very similarly to Ron Johnson vs. Russ Feingold in 2016, in this scenario I have Trump losing Wisconsin by about 2% due to the combination of juiced Madison turnout and WOW regression, so Hovde loses by around 1% in this scenario. Out of PA/MI/WI, Wisconsin is easily the least politically charged state of the three (outside of the lefties in Madison), which helps Democrats, but this won't be the ultra low propensity elections of 2022 and 2023. Still, I have Dems slightly favored in both races, as Madison has grown drastically in recent years.

-I agree with you on Lake in the sense that Gallego would be an underdog against a Ducey type, paired with Trump not being on the ballot. A Trump/Lake up-and-down ballot is simply too much cancer for moderate, Reaganite/McCain Republicans and right-leaning independents in Arizona to stomach. I think they hurt each other, in fact. Yes, Martha McSally was a poor candidate and 0-2 despite being a twice-appointed incumbent, but at least she's not a conspiracy theorist extremist extreme election denier like Kari "Loser". I also think Gallego is a poor candidate on the Dems' part and too fiscally and culturally progressive for the average AZ voter to stomach..... if he wasn't up against Lake (and Trump, to some extent). Dems got lucky there, because otherwise you're probably best off sticking with Sinema or nominating a relative moderate like Greg Stanton.

-I don't think Rosen is a good candidate at all for Nevada (oligarch elitist non-practicing jew, carpetbagger from Chicago). However, Sam Brown is a less than stellar candidate. The physical optics are a problem but far from his worst problem. He just doesn't have a personality. He's not an extremist or a perv or anything, he's just..... bland. Boring... mundane, rudimentary. Personality of a brick. Adam Laxalt didn't run but I'd have him the favorite if he did, even factoring in the 2022 loss (he conceded, fwiw). Just a missed opportunity on the part of the GOP. I think that this seat runs relatively even with the top of the ticket, and in this scenario I have Harris narrowly carrying the state, so I have Rosen carrying it by a roughly equal margin. I don't think either candidate wins or loses by more than 2%, fwiw.

Millennial_Messiah

09-19-2024, 10:50 PM

Bad news for Jared Golden. Theriault is ahead in ME-02 polling which massively underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020:

https://www.wmtw.com/article/theriault-leads-golden-cd2-2024-recent-polling/62287240

Golden is trying to win the old vote on the same ballot is Trump by playing to Theriault's young age and inexperience, which is laughable because the median old person up there is a hardcore Trumper with 21 guns and 87 fishing rods.

If the polling miss translates well vis-a-vis the House and POTUS federal levels, it could be enough to carry Theriault even taking ranked choice voting into account. Not sure if this poll factored that in, but the only third candidate in the running seems to be Diana Merenda running a write-in campaign, which is almost certainly excellent for Theriault and horrible for Golden.

As for Peltola's seat I've gotten a lot of pushback from my friends on the right for calling it likely to safe D but the issue is she got 50.9%, an outright majority, in the open primary without ranked-choice voting, and even though the other (R) besides Begich dropped out this time unlike Palin being an idiot in 2022, now Peltola is an incumbent with strange unique moderate appeal and you've got to believe that she's getting all the second-place votes from voters voting for the other (D) in the race in 2024, unlike with Palin and Begich in 2022. I don't see how Peltola loses, she might end up with 54-56% or more honestly after RCV is factored in.

The party that just had a midterm turnout advantage rarely gains more seats 2 years later (the last time it happened was 2008 which was obviously a unique circumstance)

I also don't agree with this. Obama being a "generational candidate" at the start of a financial recession largely blamed on Bush is a unique circumstance, but the screwy-louie shenanigans pulled by the Dems in 2024 with an un-democratically nominated candidate replacing the incumbent president that vowed to stay on the ballot all the way until just before the convention, paired with two assassination attempts of the former President running for President again, all of this coming off a once in a century pandemic which messed up the 8-year-cyclical continuum in 2020, with record inflation and illegal immigration on top of that isn't a unique circumstance? The GOP underperformed in 2022. If they had performed to expectations in 2022 and won their 230-245 seats they were supposed to back then in a red wave then I say they for sure lose seats in 2024 but they didn't. They went up bit by bit and redistricting has gone both ways but overall has slightly favored the GOP, any way you slice it. You have a decent amount of legacy Dems in red or purple trending red districts which is a problem for the Democrats. You have popular well-funded GOP moderate incumbents in light blue districts which is also a problem for the Dems. For every Marcy Kaptur there's three Brian Fitzpatrick's. Yes it is theoretically possible the Dems could win back the House but it'd take a pretty sizeable Kamala win and unexpectedly good night for the Dems, it's not wishcasting to say the House starts off as "Lean R".

ElNono

09-20-2024, 02:53 AM

Millennial_Messiah

09-20-2024, 02:57 AM

Sorry, but as things stand, Trump isn't winning PA, IMVHO, that's pure wishcasting. He won in '16 when he was a complete unknown, but 2020 is a far better indicator. I actually suspect he'll lose by a wider margin this time around.

And without Pennsylvania, his avenues to a win get much dimmer. He would need to win both AZ and GA, which is not impossible, but unlikely.
He's winning Georgia. PA is a pure toss up. Arizona I have going narrowly blue but it could go either way, but it's not a state Trump should comfortably rely on for sure. But the thing is PA is the tipping state because if Harris wins PA then Trump can win GA and AZ and NV (and NC, FL, TX etc) and still lose 270-268 assuming Harris wins NE-02 which she should because it's an urban district.

PA is as it stands now is the reddest of the three upper rustbelt states... it's a most win for both sides honestly, because I don't see Trump losing PA but turning around and winning MI and WI both (assuming he also flips back GA). At that point AZ/NV which won't be called on election night because of retarded counting wouldn't matter, but, it's too wishful thinking.

If one side or the other wins both GA and PA there's a 99.9% chance that side wins the election, and those two are most likely to be called reasonably early on election night considering they're in all eastern time and their counting procedures have drastically improved since 2020. AZ/NV will be counting until Thanksgiving. But if Trump has won PA and GA that means he's also won NC and he doesn't need either of AZ or NV, nor MI nor WI, to get to 270.

FrostKing

09-20-2024, 04:08 AM

Long conversations with Germans lately, intrigued bout the USA election process. I respond neutrally.

In comparison to other people I've chatted with, over the years. Germans it takes a long time to finally get them to state their option/bias. They legit are great listeners and respect the response. Refreshing people to chat with.

ElNono

09-20-2024, 10:05 PM

He's winning Georgia. PA is a pure toss up. Arizona I have going narrowly blue but it could go either way, but it's not a state Trump should comfortably rely on for sure. But the thing is PA is the tipping state because if Harris wins PA then Trump can win GA and AZ and NV (and NC, FL, TX etc) and still lose 270-268 assuming Harris wins NE-02 which she should because it's an urban district.

PA is as it stands now is the reddest of the three upper rustbelt states... it's a most win for both sides honestly, because I don't see Trump losing PA but turning around and winning MI and WI both (assuming he also flips back GA). At that point AZ/NV which won't be called on election night because of retarded counting wouldn't matter, but, it's too wishful thinking.

If one side or the other wins both GA and PA there's a 99.9% chance that side wins the election, and those two are most likely to be called reasonably early on election night considering they're in all eastern time and their counting procedures have drastically improved since 2020. AZ/NV will be counting until Thanksgiving. But if Trump has won PA and GA that means he's also won NC and he doesn't need either of AZ or NV, nor MI nor WI, to get to 270.

I give Dennison a 3% chance of winning PA. NV is not in play either, IMHO. He's just a bad candidate. He will win NC comfortably, and AZ, GA are the true tossups.

benefactor

09-20-2024, 10:09 PM

I give Dennison a 3% chance of winning PA. NV is not in play either, IMHO. He's just a bad candidate. He will win NC comfortably, and AZ, GA are the true tossups.
Agreed. But we saw the same thing during the last election. Andy with his big walls of copium text meant nothing at the end of the day

Millennial_Messiah

09-21-2024, 01:51 AM

I give Dennison a 3% chance of winning PA. NV is not in play either, IMHO. He's just a bad candidate. He will win NC comfortably, and AZ, GA are the true tossups.

And Kacklemala the San Francisco democrat is? That's the issue for Dems. If Shapiro were the alpha nominee, I'd agree about PA. Well, maybe not 97%, but maybe closer to 75-80%. Even Biden post-debate was a much better candidate for PA.

But you've got even objective Dems saying it's a coin flip in this thread, you're the one with the hopium.

NV is in play but it hasn't flipped since 2004 so I've always been hesitant unlike most people in just putting it in Trump's column. Also the polls historically tend to skew R there unlike most the other states. What's your take on MI/WI if you think Trump has a 3% chance to win PA and zero percent in NV? Because he literally can't win the election with just AZ and GA + his 2020 holds. That takes him only up to 262 electoral votes. He'd still need to win one of WI/MI/PA or pull an upset in a state like VA.

ElNono

09-22-2024, 01:39 AM

And Kacklemala the San Francisco democrat is?

She's a terrible candidate, who lucked out to be running against perhaps one of the most unlikeable, weakest candidates of all time.

As I mentioned previously, this is a reversal of the 2016 race, when Trump, who was an unknown quantity then, happened to run against Shillary.

ElNono

09-22-2024, 01:42 AM

Agreed. But we saw the same thing during the last election. Andy with his big walls of copium text meant nothing at the end of the day

True, tbh... he's going to come in here and swear Trump is done, and somebody take the GOP keys away from grandpa, etc etc etc

Then, he'll vote for him again.

Millennial_Messiah

09-25-2024, 05:14 PM

True, tbh... he's going to come in here and swear Trump is done, and somebody take the GOP keys away from grandpa, etc etc etc

Then, he'll vote for him again.

I haven't voted nor had a valid voter's registration card since 2012

The only POTUS candidate I've ever voted for was Mitt the Twit to this point. I did at least have the honor of getting to vote for Cruz. Before he became "Based Cancun Cruz". I remember voting for like 2-3 dems like way way way down ballot simply because it was a male dem vs. female gop/other candidate and I was 18 and a male supremacist lol.

ElNono

09-25-2024, 06:40 PM

I haven't voted nor had a valid voter's registration card since 2012

The only POTUS candidate I've ever voted for was Mitt the Twit to this point. I did at least have the honor of getting to vote for Cruz. Before he became "Based Cancun Cruz". I remember voting for like 2-3 dems like way way way down ballot simply because it was a male dem vs. female gop/other candidate and I was 18 and a male supremacist lol.

What does that has to do with voting Trump again and again after swearing you're done with him?

Blake

09-25-2024, 06:50 PM

She's a terrible candidate, who lucked out to be running against perhaps one of the most unlikeable, weakest candidates of all time.

As I mentioned previously, this is a reversal of the 2016 race, when Trump, who was an unknown quantity then, happened to run against Shillary.

Obama was also an unknown. Not sure what that says about Americans this century except that we're a country full of morons.

Luckily Obama turned out okay.

Blake

09-25-2024, 06:52 PM

Millennial_Messiah

09-25-2024, 07:32 PM

What does that has to do with voting Trump again and again after swearing you're done with him?

Who's the one "voting Trump again and again"? Surely not me. Didn't you read my post? I haven't voted since 2012. I agree with what Aaron Rodgers said about voting on Joe Rogan's podcast in 2021. That part of the reason why partisan polarization is such a divisive problem in today's American society, breaking up friendships and relationships etc now more than ever is because of social media and the big orgs, big companies, big donors, big media etc shoving the "vote! vote! vote!!!1! vote or DI3!!!one!!" narrative in-your-face these days more than ever, especially in 2020, it was crazy, it was all over NFL stadiums in specific swing states even if there weren't any fans at the games. It was every other TV ad in 2020. It was every other social media post, brought up in places where it never had been before, heck even pervasive and metastatic on online dating sites and apps. It's become toxic and it's massively carcinogenic and has massively contributed to societal decay. Heck, you went from being proud to have "never voted for a (D) or an (R)" in 2016 -- your own words in 2016 -- to becoming one of the most partisan leftists on this site who isn't a bot or a troll, under eight years later. I respect your opinions, but, seriously.

Sure, the right to vote (for citizens and citizens only) and preserve the democracy is fine and all, but as Rodgers stated, the right to not vote is also equally important, and being pushy about it is not just unconstitutional and wrong, but it's conscriptionist.

Lol "was"
Well, I'm 30 1/2 years old this Saturday, so definitely not 18 anymore. The rest of the sentence still applies to a certain degree, but I'm also not stupid and not going to cut off my nose to spite my face these days. I do believe that biologically, it is primal nature for men to do the leading in the vast majority of cases, and that neo-feminism is largely poisonous counterculture. This is an atheist's perspective, one who believes in science, and not a "muh jeezus" bible thumper's.

Will Hunting

09-26-2024, 11:10 AM

Winehole23

09-26-2024, 11:41 AM

Millennial_Messiah

09-26-2024, 01:59 PM

Still annoys me that if the democrats don't win the house, it'll be because the NY Dems had the power to gerrymander and decided not to + the CA Dems tried to gerrymander but were fucking terrible at it.

One of the justices on the New York COA literally wrote a concurring opinion telling the NY Dems how they could justify gerrymandering the Staten Island district by calling it an "Asian opportunity district" yet they still decided to not even try.

Yeah if the Dems want any shot at the House I think it will come down to much more the popular vote than the electoral college vote. Because CA/NY has many districts that the Dems won in 2020 and 2016 but have GOP incumbents. The Dems will need to flip probably 75% of those seats combined to win the House, plus winning the two vulnerable open seats in MI and the vulnerable seats with mid incumbents in PA, to win the House. I wouldn't favor the Dems to win the House. If Trump wins, I see the Dems flipping the House in 2026 largely by knocking off the Schweikert types off the board as well as a lot of those CA/NY seats.

there seems to be an established pattern of Dems ratfucking Dems in NY state.
There's infighting for sure. Cuomo might not have been perfect but he was relatively stable and universally approved of. Ever since he was coup'd in favor of Hochul, that was the starting point for the bleeding of the NY Dems statewide, which really reared its ugly head in the 2022 midterms, not just with redistricting.

spurraider21

09-27-2024, 06:35 PM

1839697795789259137

ElNono

09-28-2024, 05:21 PM

Who's the one "voting Trump again and again"? Surely not me. Didn't you read my post? I haven't voted since 2012.

Nobody is buying this Andy.

Heck, you went from being proud to have "never voted for a (D) or an (R)" in 2016 -- your own words in 2016 -- to becoming one of the most partisan leftists on this site who isn't a bot or a troll, under eight years later.

I didn't need to vote. If Dennison wouldn't be running, I wouldn't need to vote this year either, tbh.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 07:44 PM

to need to vote this year
No way you are telling your Tío :lol

Millennial_Messiah

09-28-2024, 09:03 PM

No way you are telling your Tío :lol

yeah, Tíos are voting GOP at a record clip tbh

Nobody is buying this Andy.

I didn't need to vote. If Dennison wouldn't be running, I wouldn't need to vote this year either, tbh.
I don't get why the TDS Extremism and what makes him worse than Bush? If anything he appealed to former Dems in Michigan by pretty blatantly Bush-bashing yesterday in both rallies in both sides of the state by saying that the wars were horrible. He is the candidate of world peace. A vote against Trump is a vote against world peace.

As far as who I'd vote for if I did end up deciding to vote from where I'm at currently, it'd be Trump for POTUS, Cruz for Senate, and Santos Limon (DEMOCRAT!!!!!) for House. Why? Because I despise Gonzales and strongly supported his populist primary challenger who lost the primary runoff by less than 2% and would have outright won if not for some dirty, sleazy cheating ads and outspending on dirty money. There needs to be a law that, in all races including primaries, runoffs, and generals that it is illegal for one candidate's side to out-spend the other in any given location by more than 10%.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 09:24 PM

4 months in Deutschland. I can firmly say the American public is too plugged into media. I remember that intro to 'Married with Children' meant TV off.

American youth being increasingly raised by mass media.

Here young kids are loud and experimental. The locals say don't worry, they will be shaped into form in school...

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 09:30 PM

Yeah, no media in Europe. :rolleyes

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 09:34 PM

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 09:38 PM

Structure. Traditions. Standards.

Europe is the best because we balanced so. Americans have fallen over off the yacht.

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 09:49 PM

No hate but Europeans are smarter. Challenged more & younger. More complicated topics at young age like old relatives passing.

My niece is 13 and in public school taking certain school subjects in her 3rd Language. So many Americans struggling with balancing a normal adult life.

Too much freedom is a thing

Structure. Traditions. Standards.

Europe is the best because we balanced so. Americans have fallen over off the yacht.

You can jerk off like this only because your Big Daddy US built you back up from the second time you destroyed your continent and kept and keeps Russia from doing it a third time.

You're welcome.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 09:51 PM

Yeah, no media in Europe. :rolleyes
Half the people here in Berlin have no TV. I haven't seen a Frat boy flat screen yet.

That's not my point. Here in Central Eurupe the focus is on .

* the Routine *

When you have a long string of family members, you get in line and help the cause. Being a chain is the goal. USA media preaches often to break the chain.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 09:54 PM

You can jerk off like this only because your Big Daddy US built you back up from the second time you destroyed your continent and kept and keeps Russia from doing it a third time.

You're welcome.
Don't forward this to the Vietnamese.

Whether you or I are right. The international scores paint a certain picture. Your argument is you were Daddy and yet raised an obese low IQ and Fentanyl addicted child?

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 09:54 PM

Half the people here in Berlin have no TV. I haven't seen a Frat boy flat screen yet.

That's not my point. Here in Central Eurupe the focus is on .

* the Routine *

When you have a long string of family members, you get in line and help the cause. Being a chain is the goal. USA media preaches often to break the chain.
:lol thinking young people anywhere are watching cable TV.

You're just not as smart as you want us to think you are.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 09:55 PM

Absolutely no Fentanyl in Europe

I've partied and have yet to hear the word.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 09:57 PM

:lol thinking young people anywhere are watching cable TV.

You're just not as smart as you want us to think you are.
Attack me lil American. Got you rattled.

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 09:59 PM

Absolutely no Fentanyl in Europe

I've partied and have yet to hear the word.
Anecdotes are not facts.

Zuromin, a town of about 9,000 people two hours north of Warsaw, has been named the region's unofficial fentanyl capital.

For some, it is reminiscent of small towns in the United States which were the first to fall victim to the country's opioid epidemic.

In June, local police seized a total of 300 patches of the drug, capable of intoxicating 4,800 people, and arrested four people suspected of involvement in the illegal fentanyl trade.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240717-unnoticed-catastrophic-rising-opioid-fears-in-eastern-europe

:lol ignorant Eurotrash

ElNono

09-28-2024, 10:22 PM

No way you are telling your Tío :lol

yeah, Tíos are voting GOP at a record clip tbh

This is wishcasting again. Just look at California which has the largest concentration of mexicans, it's the bluest state in the nation...

I don't get why the TDS Extremism and what makes him worse than Bush?

Extremely worse than Bush. Bush was horrendous, but truly believed what he stood for and once his time was up, he picked up his bags and left.

This guy was always a conman, he believes in nothing but holding on and harnessing power. He ran as basically Bernie Sanders in 2016, governed like Bush, and then we almost have to send the troops to evict his ass from the White House.

There's just no red line he's unwilling to cross for himself. I grew up in a military dictatorship, until I was 9, and I know the difference between democracy and authoritarianism. I know the type as well.

If there's one reason I'd like to have the ability to vote here in the US is to deny the WH to people like him. You can call it TDS or whatever. I would do the same if a lefty started talking about "third term", etc.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 10:26 PM

Anecdotes are not facts.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240717-unnoticed-catastrophic-rising-opioid-fears-in-eastern-europe

:lol ignorant Eurotrash
Settle down hippie

https://i.ibb.co/P6yXB1r/Screenshot-20240929-052419-Chrome.jpg

Bias. Never heard of this city. 9K sounds like a typical weekend in stars & stripes

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 10:34 PM

I'm in Berlin

https://i.ibb.co/gwLXw5Z/Screenshot-20240929-053253-Chrome.jpg

I returned to experience the Rebound. European Youth will carry us back.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 10:41 PM

American youth has been stripped of family, traditions and what are the standards?

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 10:44 PM

Never heard of this city.:lol ignorant Eurotrash

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 10:45 PM

I'm in Berlin

https://i.ibb.co/gwLXw5Z/Screenshot-20240929-053253-Chrome.jpg

I returned to experience the Rebound. European Youth will carry us back.

American youth has been stripped of family, traditions and what are the standards?

We've resisted authoritarianism.

You haven't.

All you do is destroy yourselves and hope Big Daddy USA will bail you out again.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 10:48 PM

We've resisted authoritarianism.

You haven't.

All you do is destroy yourselves and hope Big Daddy USA will bail you out again.
You never played on a sports team?

Get on board with your ancestors.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 10:52 PM

I spent 35 years in USA and packed my shit and returned to where I was born.

You are my age. Be a man. Cheerleading for outliers. Kinda sad. Good cheerleader put on a skirt.

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 10:56 PM

You never played on a sports team?

Get on board with your ancestors.

I spent 35 years in USA and packed my shit and returned to where I was born.

You are my age. Be a man. Cheerleading for outliers. Kinda sad. Good cheerleader put on a skirt.
Be a man and leave NATO.

Go right ahead.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 10:58 PM

Be a man and leave NATO.

Go right ahead.
You are comparing politics with personal choice.

I'm not gonna harp on you. Your heart is in the right place.

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 11:00 PM

You are comparing politics with personal choice.

I'm not gonna harp on you. Your heart is in the right place.:lol Without our protection you're just another oblast.

You're welcome.

:lmao "no fentanyl in Europe"

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 11:03 PM

:lol Without our protection you're just another oblast.

You're welcome.

:lmao "no fentanyl in Europe"
Stop waging war in the Arab World and Central Europe will have no refugees tbh

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 11:06 PM

Europeans aren't scared of Russia. We have defeated them numerous times. That is why they sit in the corner. Don't pump them up with confidence this time [WW2].

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 11:09 PM

Stop waging war in the Arab World and Central Europe will have no refugees tbh
:lmao Europe caused all the problems in the Arab world after WWI.

Europeans aren't scared of Russia. We have defeated them numerous times. That is why they sit in the corner. Don't pump them up with confidence this time [WW2].
Then leave NATO. Let all the US soldiers and airmen protecting you come home. Go right ahead. Be a man.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 11:11 PM

:lmao Europe caused all the problems in the Arab world after WWI.

Then leave NATO. Let all the US soldiers and airmen protecting you come home. Go right ahead. Be a man.
Connect the dots. Voting for Orange Man does that

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 11:12 PM

Connect the dots. Voting for Orange Man does that
I'm not talking about him.

I'm talking about YOU.

YOU actively get YOUR European country to leave NATO.

Be a man.

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 11:13 PM

I'm not talking about him.

I'm talking about YOU.

YOU actively get your country to leave NATO.

Be a man.
Haha. Chump just join us already.

Don't you grow tired of defending the machine

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 11:22 PM

I'll be back later. Winter coming. When you spend time in Euro middle class, you realize how far behind America has let itself

And here healthcare, housing, public transportation. Best child care. Clean streets, low public noise and crazy- right of the street focus

FrostKing

09-28-2024, 11:32 PM

ChumpDumper

09-28-2024, 11:36 PM

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:02 AM

Yes, and you voted against all that in the US.

:lol votingrepublcan.jpg
Europe is racist. Social benefits only work when participants are accounted for.

We are deporting people. Join us or keep crying on a knee

Blake

09-29-2024, 12:02 AM

Blake

09-29-2024, 12:03 AM

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:04 AM

So you want public schools to raise kids.
Central/Eastern European women

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:06 AM

Wow, you make socialism sound great.USA destiny is this young directionless person

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:14 AM

The Left of America wants to take out/rewrite the European foundation.

European way is the best. It's been tried and long played. Imagine questioning the Euro model.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:17 AM

They will sell you Africa coulda woulda should

Europe or continue turning into a loser like them

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 12:21 AM

Europe is racist. Social benefits only work when participants are accounted for.

We are deporting people. Join us or keep crying on a knee:lmao you don't even know what you're talking about anymore.

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 12:22 AM

The Left of America wants to take out/rewrite the European foundation.

European way is the best. It's been tried and long played. Imagine questioning the Euro model.

They will sell you Africa coulda woulda should

Europe or continue turning into a loser like them

So we should've kept the Germans (Europe's losers) from immigrating.:tu

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:27 AM

So we should've kept the Germans from immigrating.:tu
Take fkn pride in your nation. The way you do at Europeans like me.

Your family loves Kamila? Who will you shock. Be a Man

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:30 AM

I gotta bail soon

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 12:31 AM

Take fkn pride in your nation. The way you do at Europeans like me.

Your family loves Kamila? Who will you shock. Be a Man:lol insecure male

No wonder you're alone again on a weekend.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:33 AM

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:35 AM

https://youtu.be/qySwjyr1W0k?si=15bqLkM7TygOZT5T

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 12:36 AM

Born in Polska. Grew up in California. Came back baby.

Europe is the best of every Civilization. I am respectful but we are best. I think we can & should import outsiders. A foreigner being successful showcases our superior way of life

Stop warmongering immediatelyYou destroy yourselves with your racist warmongering every couple generations unless Big Daddy USA stops it.

You're welcome.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:39 AM

You destroy yourselves with your racist warmongering every couple generations unless Big Daddy USA stops it.

You're welcome.
Makes little sense.

I don't believe you don't think like me. We all grew up left foundation. Why do you attack your blood

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 12:45 AM

Makes little sense.
WWI

WWII

We've been babysitting you ever since.

You're welcome.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:48 AM

Whatever bro. Haha. You guys have your reasons for hating Trump.

The White Single Men. Europe is the paradise. America is lost cause.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:49 AM

WWI

WWII

We've been babysitting you ever since.

You're welcome.
You would kneel for them. You supported knee for criminals

Europe would try Floyd's corpse for a loitering ticket

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 12:57 AM

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:02 AM

Honestly come here. USA doesn't exist in our museums. Just your Hollywood movies.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:10 AM

You aren't pure blood and your best never had the heart to conquer anyone. Just bombed them like cowards.

My blood rescued Europe against the Ottomans

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:17 AM

You would kneel for them. You supported knee for criminals

Europe would try Floyd's corpse for a loitering ticketEurope would be a smoldering wasteland if not for Big Daddy USA.

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:18 AM

World War blah blah

You've never been here. Just dates to you. Typical American.

You are weak because none of your ancestors did shit but lose to Vietnam. Cucks trying to shape the World. Get in line for your black woman bitch:lol you lost both world wars and you think you're superior.

Vietnam was Europe's imperialist fault too. We were fooled into taking over once you lost.

You aren't pure blood and your best never had the heart to conquer anyone. Just bombed them like cowards.

My blood rescued Europe against the OttomansYou did nothing.

You do nothing but drink.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:23 AM

:lol you lost both world wars and you think you're superior.

Vietnam was Europe's imperialist fault too. We were fooled into taking over once you lost.
You did nothing.

You do nothing but drink.
You are voting for a non white non male

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:24 AM

You are voting for a non white non male
I'm voting for the non felon.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:26 AM

I'm voting for the non felon.
The people are felons

The system is not

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:27 AM

The people are felons

The system is not
Then why are you so obsessed with the race and sex of the people?

Please explain.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:28 AM

Then why are you so obsessed with the race and sex of the people?

Please explain.
Okay. Big side step there amigo

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:28 AM

Okay. Big side step there amigoThen why did you bring it up?

Please explain.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:33 AM

Then why did you bring it up?

Please explain.
As the globe is in recession.

Every people returning to their roots

Your solution is Kamala? Atleast Trump will remind Americans they are #1

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:35 AM

As the globe is in recession.

Every people returning to their roots

Your solution is Kamala? Atleast Trump will remind Americans they are #1
The US isn't in recession.

That's why we're #1.

Why are you this ignorant?

Please explain.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:36 AM

Americans need confidence. Reminder in the great America I grew up in. And still preach

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:37 AM

Americans need confidence. Reminder in the great America I grew up in. And still preach
You want to be lied to by a felon.

Why do you need to be coddled so?

Be a man.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:40 AM

The US isn't in recession.

That's why we're #1.

Why are you this ignorant?

Please explain.
Globe is in recession. Europeans don't work half as hard as poor Americans. When Americans have united identity they are arguably unbeatable.

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:43 AM

Globe is in recession. Europeans don't work half as hard as poor Americans. When Americans have united identity they are arguably unbeatable.

I'm tired of hearing bout 3rd bathrooms and climateEasy to be a lazy European and whine about "the globe" when Big Daddy USA is working to protect you.

You're welcome.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:44 AM

Easy to be a lazy European and whine about "the globe" when Big Daddy USA is working to protect you.

You're welcome.
You're being used. Europeans are eating well and honestly never looking at prices here in Berlin.

You're the sucker

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:45 AM

You're being used. Europeans are eating well and honestly never looking at prices here in Berlin.

You're the suckerYou're our fat, lazy pet.

Easy care.

Obedient.

A cheap purchase.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:45 AM

Every corner here in Berlin there is someone eating and or drinking. Kinda crazy. Berliners living life. I'm impressed

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:47 AM

Of course they're enjoying themselves. They're ignoring you.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:48 AM

You're our fat, lazy pet.

Easy care.

Obedient.
Haha. Fat and lazy?

Come visit here. People are more sharp. Less sports & entertainment. Almost no sports.

Just enjoy the routine and life with family

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:49 AM

Of course they're enjoying themselves. They're ignoring you.
You're so negative. People here have caught on how the Left is full of happy meal bullshit. Dumb Americans might he dooped again

ChumpDumper

09-29-2024, 01:50 AM

Haha. Fat and lazy?

Come visit here. People are more sharp. Less sports & entertainment. Almost no sports.

Just enjoy the routine and life with family:lol you still slavishly follow USA sports.

You'll never be one of them.

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 01:55 AM

:lol you still slavishly follow USA sports.

You'll never be one of them.
I've lived in 4 nations. I'll never be pressured. You still judging let's be honest you only speak 1 language. You are too scared to step foot anywhere kiddo

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 02:00 AM

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 02:01 AM

Mexican culture is blowing up in this region

FrostKing

09-29-2024, 02:12 AM

I'm returning to life. If you have duel citizenship passport then come here.

Best regards. Chat soon.

Millennial_Messiah

09-30-2024, 03:27 PM

I'm returning to life. If you have duel citizenship passport then come here.

Best regards. Chat soon.

Will you be voting in the USA elections as a dual citizen? You should, if possible, you can request a mail in absentee vote, it's not too late.

Especially if you're a California resident, those western states tend to be very generous/benevolent/liberal about mail in voting opportunity.

Every vote for Garvey lessens the evil smirk off Shifty Schiff's face a little; every vote for Trump adds to the popular vote total. Let's go.

ChumpDumper

09-30-2024, 03:29 PM

Will you be voting in the USA elections as a dual citizen? You should, if possible, you can request a mail in absentee vote, it's not too late.

Especially if you're a California resident, those western states tend to be very generous/benevolent/liberal about mail in voting opportunity.

Every vote for Garvey lessens the evil smirk off Shifty Schiff's face a little; every vote for Trump adds to the popular vote total. Let's go.

VOTE FRAUD!

ElNono

09-30-2024, 10:19 PM

I'm returning to life. If you have duel citizenship passport then come here.

Best regards. Chat soon.

Are you moving to Austria, tbh?

Millennial_Messiah

10-02-2024, 03:41 PM

VOTE FRAUD!

It's not fraudulent if he has dual citizenship.

ChumpDumper

10-02-2024, 04:35 PM

It's not fraudulent if he has dual citizenship.

Like laws matter.

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 02:50 AM

David McCormick Kicks Bob Casey's Nepotistic Ass In Pennsylvania Senate Debate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KriHWsJV5AU

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 06:59 AM

:lol delusional to think that a short carpetbagger with a weird voice is going to beat Casey. He’s going to underperform Trump by at least several points.

LkrFan

10-04-2024, 07:01 AM

Hey Thread the Magic Negro about to campaign for Comrade Kamala
1842154015620059634

Is this geeat or what? :downspin:

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 02:01 PM

Why the GOP candidates are currently being drastically underpolled nationwide (particularly in the Rust Belt) in the Senate:

-Russ Feingold in this point in 2016 early October was leading by 9-11%. WOW! Polling aggregate would narrow to Feingold + 2.7% by Election Day, while the actual result was Ron Johnson + 3.4%. A polling miss of R+ 6.1%! https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2016/wisconsin/johnson-vs-feingold Massive polling miss here. I think in 2024 we have a similar situation where Eric Hovde is the type who will overperform Trump in the WOW counties similar to Johnson and then run roughly in-line with Trump in the rest of the state, shocking a lot of people. Currently, Tammy Baldwin is ahead of Hovde by +3.5% at the same time Feingold was ahead by +9.7%, which is BAD news for Tammy Baldwin, especially if anywhere near the R + 6.1% polling miss validates in 2024 (maybe give her a point or so for incumbency, but even then, it's a presidential election post-polarization): https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/wisconsin/hovde-vs-baldwin

-Can't really compare the Sherrod Brown/Bernie Moreno race to 2016 because Rob Portman was a Mike DeWine-style compromise moderate senator who won by relative dictator margins, but let's not forget that Moreno was ahead in the primary polling by a paltry 2.0% and ended up winning the state by 17.6% in the primary this year. He's an overperformer. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/republican-primary/2024/ohio Also, if Trump wins by his 2016/2020 margin or higher, I don't foresee an 8% or larger ticket split in favor of Brown, especially since Moreno is popular in the must-win counties for Brown, in the northeast part of the state near Youngstown. While Moreno very well may underperform Trump, he should win by roughly a similar margin as Vance in 2022 against a very similar candidate. Remember, post-polarization, top of the ticket beats incumbency in presidential election years as opposed to midterms.

-Gary Peters in this point in 2020 early October was leading by 5.4%, which carried steady through Election Day. The actual result was Peters + 1.7%, overperforming Trump by almost one percentage point. This indicates that, especially factoring in an open-seat situation, it is actually highly likely that in 2024 Mike Rogers will overperform Trump down ballot, especially in the Grand Rapids metro area in West Michigan and also Oakland County, where Trump is less popular than the average Republican. It is also a polling miss of R + 3.7%, which factored into today's current Elissa Slotkin lead of +3.0% (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/michigan/rogers-vs-slotkin), would net Mike Rogers a 0.7% actual victory in 2024, and would likely mean that Trump very narrowly loses Michigan by the smallest of tilt margins, which are both in line with my prediction on the first page of this thread.

-Katie McGinty in this point in 2016 early October was leading by 1.8%, which actually improved to McGinty + 2.0% on Election Day. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2016/pennsylvania/toomey-vs-mcginty) The actual result was Toomey + 1.6%, again outperforming Trump (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/pennsylvania/trump-vs-clinton) by a margin of 0.9%, similar to my 0.7% prediction for Senate GOP-friendly ticket splitting in PA in 2024. Currently, incumbent Bob Casey Jr. leads the polling by 4.0%, but that's with two high outliers factored in, throw those out and you've got a myriad of Casey + 1, Casey +2, Casey + 1, and even a couple of tied polls. McCormick has been drastically improving throughout. Meanwhile, Trump and Harris are currently mathematically tied in Pennsylvania (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris), which is an obvious drop off for the Democrats from the polling of 2016 and 2020. If the Presidential/Senate split, which should be marginal in either direction anyway, holds from 2016, then David McCormick should in theory be winning by a tilt margin at this point, or greater if polls are once again underestimating Trump (though the difference in polling miss in PA is admittedly less than WI and MI, in 2020 the polling aggregate was spot-on in PA, while in 2016 the polling miss was only Trump + 2.6%. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/pennsylvania/trump-vs-clinton-vs-johnson-vs-stein). Admittedly, this one appears to be lower confidence than the MI, OH, and even WI senate races, but McCormick has also been an unlikely overperformer in the past: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/Pennsylvania.html here McCormick out-performed expectations by roughly 12% in the May 17, 2022 primary, even in the face of all the big-name GOP endorsements going against him.

-Jon Tester is all but cooked. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/montana/sheehy-vs-tester) Let this be a lesson from 2022, 2012, and other years for the GOP that candidate quality indeed matters! The Democrats are currently spending much more money trying (unsuccessfully) to flip Texas's senate seat than saving Tester's big bottom, seeing the writing on the wall here in a state that typically ticket splits for President and Senate in the Trump polarization era by D + 6.4%. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2020/montana/daines-vs-bullock) vs (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/montana/trump-vs-biden). Actually, polling looked much better for incumbent governor Steve Bullock for this Senate seat in 2020 than it does for three-term incumbent Tester in 2024. Tester is done.

-In Arizona I expect the Democrat to win but the ticket split is surprisingly small: (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801-map-widget.html). Not only did Mark Kelly underperform polling in a similar open seat election to 2024 in 2020 by 3.3%, but he also only overperformed Biden by 2.3%. If you factor in a similar Democrat Senator-friendly ticket split in 2024, Ruben Gallego (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris) only defeats Kari Lake by +0.8%, which is actually a Tilt D margin and to the right of my Lean D prediction for AZ's Senate race. (Then again, I am less bullish than polls for Trump in Arizona.)

-In Nevada in 2016 you had the Senate election perform exactly in-line with the Presidential election, which is what I expect to happen again in 2024, hence my consistent "Tilt D" evaluation for the state at both levels as the state has been very slowly crawling red in the past decade. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2016/nevada/cortezmasto-vs-heck) vs (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/nevada/trump-vs-clinton) Both Hillary Clinton and Catherine Cortez-Masto won by exactly 2.4%. Trump would need to carry the state to carry Sam Brown across the finish line, and I'm not particularly bullish on Nevada for Trump.

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 02:02 PM

:lol delusional to think that a short carpetbagger with a weird voice is going to beat Casey. He’s going to underperform Trump by at least several points.

He was born and raised in PA and lived there most of his life unlike Dr. Oz. Senator Casey relying on "muh Connecticut" as a crutch (13 times) in the debate more so than policy just makes him look weak in light of that. With Fetterman, the argument that "Dr. Oz didn't move here until last year and he's born in Ohio and has mansions in NJ and spent a lot of his life in Turkey" pulled a lot stronger weight with the voters... especially the Turkey part. McCormick did over-rely on the phrase "[Casey] is a career politician" but PA does like to vote for relative political outsiders lately, like Trump and Fetterman, so that argument isn't horrible.

I actually think McCormick out-runs Trump by about 0.7%. Will that be enough to win for either, who knows, but any ticket split in the rust belt with Trump on the ballot is historically in favor of the Senate candidate, not Trump.

Josh Stein is the real carpetbagger. Didn't live in NC until well into adulthood after being an Ivy League lawyer elitist oligarch. And Hillary in 2000 wasn't the biggest carpetbagger in Senate history? :lmao

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 02:46 PM

He was born and raised in PA and lived there most of his life unlike Dr. Oz. Senator Casey relying on "muh Connecticut" as a crutch (13 times) in the debate more so than policy just makes him look weak in light of that. With Fetterman, the argument that "Dr. Oz didn't move here until last year and he's born in Ohio and has mansions in NJ and spent a lot of his life in Turkey" pulled a lot stronger weight with the voters... especially the Turkey part. McCormick did over-rely on the phrase "[Casey] is a career politician" but PA does like to vote for relative political outsiders lately, like Trump and Fetterman, so that argument isn't horrible.
So you're saying he was born in the state that he's running it, moved to Connecticut, then moved back to run for statewide office, and voters are going to like that? Great point, it's not like Tim Michels followed that exact same arc and did embarrassingly bad against Evers.
McCormick is a globalist hedge fund manager who'd use the senate to enrich himself. No one outside of devout Trump supporters believes that he's an "outsider" :lmao

Oligarch candidates like China Dave are proof that the GOP claiming to now be the "working class" party is bullshit :lol

I actually think McCormick out-runs Trump by about 0.7%. Will that be enough to win for either, who knows, but any ticket split in the rust belt with Trump on the ballot is historically in favor of the Senate candidate, not Trump.
That's a dumb comparison because the ticket splitting in the rustbelt didn't involve incumbents who've historically been overperformers, and the polling always foreshadowed the R senate candidate overperforming Trump. This year there hasn't been a single poll that showed China Dave overperforming Trump, in fact he's underperforming Trump in pretty much all of them.

Josh Stein is the real carpetbagger. Didn't live in NC until well into adulthood after being an Ivy League lawyer elitist oligarch. And Hillary in 2000 wasn't the biggest carpetbagger in Senate history? :lmao
:lol whataboutism non-sequitur that has nothing to do with the pro-CCP manlet from Connecticut

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 02:51 PM

I met Majewski twice, once in Wisconsin and the other time just last Saturday in Youngstown OH. Great dude. And the GOP gerrymandered it, so he's going to beat that dingbat old bag Marcy Kaptur by over 5 percent. Bye Bye Nancy Pelosi of the Midwest.

Should be term limits anyway for everyone in congress in both chambers... those like Mitch, Kaptur, Pelosi, Schumer, Inhofe etc. 4 senate terms and 12 house terms maximum per lifetime.
:lol if the guy who was this confident fat fuck JR Majewski would be Marcy Kaptur thinks Casey is losing, then I like Casey's chances

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 03:02 PM

Also Josh Stein's family moved to North Carolina when he was 3 years old, where he spent his entire childhood (he went to high school in Chapel Hill) and he moved back to NC after college. He's literally lived in North Carolina for his entire life beyond the first three years of it + the years he was attending school.

Even your whataboutism is fucking retarded :lol

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 03:11 PM

So you're saying he was born in the state that he's running it, moved to Connecticut, then moved back to run for statewide office, and voters are going to like that? Great point, it's not like Tim Michels followed that exact same arc and did embarrassingly bad against Evers.
McCormick is a globalist hedge fund manager who'd use the senate to enrich himself. No one outside of devout Trump supporters believes that he's an "outsider" :lmao

Oligarch candidates like China Dave are proof that the GOP claiming to now be the "working class" party is bullshit :lol

That's a dumb comparison because the ticket splitting in the rustbelt didn't involve incumbents who've historically been overperformers, and the polling always foreshadowed the R senate candidate overperforming Trump. This year there hasn't been a single poll that showed China Dave overperforming Trump, in fact he's underperforming Trump in pretty much all of them.

:lol whataboutism non-sequitur that has nothing to do with the pro-CCP manlet from Connecticut
^read my data analysis post a couple posts up.

A lot of conservatives, indeed, compared McCormick to Pat Toomey over the years, dating back to 2022. (Pat Toomey was a carpetbagger from Rhode Island, FYI.) McCormick isn't the Trumplican populist archetype, might not even vote with Trump 100% (though he's recently come out in favor of tariffs) but there's no doubt he's an overperformer with the average independent voter especially compared to someone like Dr. Oz, and will win >97% of Trump voters too.

Mike Rogers also seems to be threading the needle with the old GOP guard and the new GOP populist guard and is a strong candidate. Eric Hovde is also a good candidate and will overperform Trump in the WOW counties, but not sure he'll win since the x-factor in WI is that Madison has been turning out in droves like never before and very very deep blue at all levels (even in special elections) with a vengeance since Roe was overturned in mid 2022. The Tim Michels comparison doesn't really apply to Senate because that's a state level election, but let's work with it. Tim Michels was a very poor public speaker, as was Doug Mastriano. Even though Michels wasn't running on "let's re-litigate muh 2020" unlike Mastriano, he was still a weak and unconfident public speaker. He didn't have the Scott Walker gift of gab, and WI was definitely another state the GOP underperformed across the board because of Dobbs v. Jackson, heck Ron Johnson was expected to win by a lean-to-likely margin but ended up winning by a frickin' tilt margin as the incumbent in a ~90% white state against a Black Nationalist challenger of all things... WI in 2022 was an embarrassment for the GOP, really across the rust belt as a whole. Trump on the ballot and moderating on abortion, holding true to the 10th amendment etc and Vance affirming the same, solves a lot of problems there.

Side note on Tim Michels, Trump picked him over the obvious winning choice (Rebecca Kleefisch) because she came out that summer in favor of DeSantis for President which angered Trump's ego, which likely put Michels barely over the top in the primary.

It's going to be close. I have AZ/NV going blue at both levels and Gallego outperforming Harris by 2.3%, and Rosen running in-line with Harris which is consistent with past data. The "China Dave" is a good nickname that the Casey campaign should absolutely use, PA may like outsiders but they don't like second world countries, see Dr. Oz's performances in 2022.

:lol if the guy who was this confident fat fuck JR Majewski would be Marcy Kaptur thinks Casey is losing, then I like Casey's chances
Was that post pre or post Dobbs though? I feel like Dobbs carried the DNC in the rust belt, and I recall specifically calling that out on Friday, June 24th, 2022.

<edit> I re-read your post quoting me that I'd met Majewski in WI and OH, which were in August and September 2022, so post-Dobbs, so, yeah, I was wrong. Focusing too heavy on the yard sign analysis and not following my earlier inclination that Dobbs was really going to hurt the GOP in key 2022 swing races in both the House and Senate.

Also Josh Stein's family moved to North Carolina when he was 3 years old, where he spent his entire childhood (he went to high school in Chapel Hill) and he moved back to NC after college. He's literally lived in North Carolina for his entire life beyond the first three years of it + the years he was attending school.

Even your whataboutism is fucking retarded :lol
I've read conflicting stories about Stein but the point is that, he comes off as a prototype oligarch "I'm smarter than you and thus I'm better than you" Ivy League lawyer rich globalist hypocrite from the mid Atlantic. I guess you're lucky he's up against one of the worst GOP gubernatorial candidates in recent history. Stein will win through the suburbs that Trump will carry but, don't be surprised if the margin is closer than expected, Stein won't get the typical Dixiecrat hillbilly vote that people like Cooper and Beshear are used to getting being native sons and non-Christian in a solidly Southern Baptist majority state, and Robinson has actually been on the ground with Helene relief in W. NC this past week and has improved his image by doing that.

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 03:26 PM

^read my data analysis post a couple posts up.

A lot of conservatives, indeed, compared McCormick to Pat Toomey over the years, dating back to 2022. (Pat Toomey was a carpetbagger from Rhode Island, FYI.) McCormick isn't the Trumplican populist archetype, might not even vote with Trump 100% (though he's recently come out in favor of tariffs) but there's no doubt he's an overperformer with the average independent voter especially compared to someone like Dr. Oz, and will win >97% of Trump voters too.

Mike Rogers also seems to be threading the needle with the old GOP guard and the new GOP populist guard and is a strong candidate. Eric Hovde is also a good candidate and will overperform Trump in the WOW counties, but not sure he'll win since the x-factor in WI is that Madison has been turning out in droves like never before and very very deep blue at all levels (even in special elections) with a vengeance since Roe was overturned in mid 2022. The Tim Michels comparison doesn't really apply to Senate because that's a state level election, but let's work with it. Tim Michels was a very poor public speaker, as was Doug Mastriano. Even though Michels wasn't running on "let's re-ligitate 2020" unlike Mastriano, he was still a weak and unconfident public speaker. He didn't have the Scott Walker gift of gab, and WI was definitely another state the GOP underperformed across the board because of Dobbs v. Jackson, heck Ron Johnson was expected to win by a lean-to-likely margin but ended up winning by a frickin' tilt margin as the incumbent in a ~90% white state against a Black Nationalist challenger of all things... WI in 2022 was an embarrassment for the GOP, really across the rust belt as a whole. Trump on the ballot and moderating on abortion, holding true to the 10th amendment etc and Vance affirming the same, solves a lot of problems there.

It's going to be close. I have AZ/NV going blue at both levels and Gallego outperforming Harris by 2.3%, and Rosen running in-line with Harris which is consistent with past data. The "China Dave" is a good nickname that the Casey campaign should absolutely use, PA may like outsiders but they don't like second world countries, see Dr. Oz's performances in 2022.
Your "data" is just a rebranded version of your 2022 wish casting. You can try and revise history all you want but with someone like Michels, whatever speaking flaw you're claiming he has now it didn't stop you from predicting he was winning in 2022. I look forward to similar hair splitting where you pretend you knew all along that former Bush administration official Dave McCormick was a flawed candidate after he loses and you try to downplay your laughably bad prediction.

As far as the other races go - Hovde will definitely overperform Trump in WOW but Baldwin will overperform Harris in the rural areas. I think Baldwin favored but I also wouldn't be surprised if Hovde wins. Close race imo. The prediction that Rosen running in line with Harris makes no sense, polls have her doing significantly better which makes sense when her opponent is an election denying Freddie Kruger with a disgusting fucked up face :lol

Was that post pre or post Dobbs though? I feel like Dobbs carried the DNC in the rust belt, and I recall specifically calling that out on Friday, June 24th, 2022.
You made that prediction in September 2022, three months after Dobbs. The idea that you scaled your delusional 2022 predictions back after Dobbs is revisionist history, you predicted Laxalt, Walker, Masters (:lmao) and Oz (:lmao) were all gonna win well after Dobbs.

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 03:30 PM

I've read conflicting stories about Stein but the point is that, he comes off as a prototype oligarch "I'm smarter than you and thus I'm better than you" Ivy League lawyer rich globalist hypocrite from the mid Atlantic. I guess you're lucky he's up against one of the worst GOP gubernatorial candidates in recent history. Stein will win through the suburbs that Trump will carry but, don't be surprised if the margin is closer than expected, Stein won't get the typical Dixiecrat hillbilly vote that people like Cooper and Beshear are used to getting being native sons and non-Christian in a solidly Southern Baptist majority state, and Robinson has actually been on the ground with Helene relief in W. NC this past week and has improved his image by doing that.
:lol more goalpost moving. There are no "conflicting stories", it's an undisputed fact that Josh Stein has lived in NC basically his entire life outside of when he attended college + grad school.

:lmao claiming Stein comes off as an oligarch but Connecticut Dave, the hedge fund manager who worked in the Bush administration comes off as an "outsider." Josh Stein has a relatively thick southern accent, you're just assuming he comes off as an "oligarch" because he's Jewish when he comes off as a completely native North Carolinian (you've definitely never heard him talk if you think he sounds more elitist than Connecticut Dave).

:lol "don't be surprised if the margin is closer than expected"....Stein is going to win by Shapiro margins against the filthy n!gger version of Doug Mastriano. It won't have any impact on the presidential race in the state, but Stein wins by 15+%.

ChumpDumper

10-04-2024, 03:32 PM

Pimping Robinson after Nude Africagate is...something....

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 03:35 PM

Pimping Robinson after Nude Africagate is...something....
The site seems like a truly enriching place

1837556668537684124

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 03:41 PM

Your "data" is just a rebranded version of your 2022 wish casting. You can try and revise history all you want but with someone like Michels, whatever speaking flaw you're claiming he has now it didn't stop you from predicting he was winning in 2022. I look forward to similar hair splitting where you pretend you knew all along that former Bush administration official Dave McCormick was a flawed candidate after he loses and you try to downplay your laughably bad prediction.

As far as the other races go - Hovde will definitely overperform Trump in WOW but Baldwin will overperform Harris in the rural areas. I think Baldwin favored but I also wouldn't be surprised if Hovde wins. Close race imo. The prediction that Rosen running in line with Harris makes no sense, polls have her doing significantly better which makes sense when her opponent is an election denying Freddie Kruger with a disgusting fucked up face :lol

You made that prediction in September 2022, three months after Dobbs. The idea that you scaled your delusional 2022 predictions back after Dobbs is revisionist history, you predicted Laxalt, Walker, Masters (:lmao) and Oz (:lmao) were all gonna win well after Dobbs.

I posted it above, yeah I admitted I was wrong about 2022 both before and after Dobbs. I should have gone with my "Dobbs will hurt the GOP in the midterms" intuition in June 2022. The idea that red and blue waves happen 2 years after the opposite party president is elected was just too deeply ingrained after countless midterms and 2002 was so long ago that I just couldn't fathom a non red wave midterm in 2022, or a blue wave midterm in 2026 if Trump wins for example, and just underestimated the impact of abortion and also the Dems drastically improving their midterm campaign fundraising and financing from midterms in the past. I was wrong... I admit it. But I've been trying to correct my predictions this year using more pure data analysis rather than hearsay and stuff like vibes and yard signs.

The idea that Rosen wins by anywhere near the margin she's polling in currently is silly. I'd be happy to eat crow if Rosen wins by larger than her 2018 margin in a blue wave non-presidential year. But I feel like the shy Brown voter exists and a lot of it is indeed because of his face (and lack of name recognition), similar to the non-hardcore MAGA Trump voter people in Arizona not admitting they're actually going to vote for Kari Lake but they actually will "come home" for the most part.

David McCormick is a flawed candidate, sure, but less-so than Dr. Oz or someone overall terrible like Kathy Barnette, and finding quality GOP Senate candidates in PA has proven difficult for quite awhile now. Every GOP PA senator in the 21st century has either outright flipped to the other party or flipped on impeaching and convicting their own party's president, and the GOP wants to get away from that stench. I wanted Scott Perry, but he'd be a "flawed candidate" too because the Dems would probably tie him to endorsing project 2025 and being too close to Mastriano. Sean Parnell was an average possible candidate but he lost his House election in 2020 albeit close to a D incumbent and losers don't tend to do better the second or third time for either party (John James R-MI the exception not the rule). There's other congressmen you can pick, I mean Brian Fitzpatrick would probably beat Casey or Fetterman but he'd be another moderate like Toomey for sure and also you probably forfeit that House seat.

Stein is going to win by Shapiro margins against the filthy n!gger version of Doug Mastriano. It won't have any impact on the presidential race in the state, but Stein wins by 15+%.
We'll see about that. 2020 polls had Cooper winning by double digits and he eked it out and he was the incumbent. It's a "we'll see" at this point.

PA is definitely a big time Jewish state... [hence Oz being a very awkward choice in many ways for the GOP in '22]... NC not at all.

Pimping Robinson after Nude Africagate is...something....
Definitely not pimping him at all, just stating that even though NC splits for governor vs federal historically and even recently post polarization, the margin probably won't be as big as the mainstream people think.

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 03:49 PM

I posted it above, yeah I admitted I was wrong about 2022 both before and after Dobbs. I should have gone with my "Dobbs will hurt the GOP in the midterms" intuition in June 2022. The idea that red and blue waves happen 2 years after the opposite party president is elected was just too deeply ingrained after countless midterms and 2002 was so long ago that I just couldn't fathom a non red wave midterm in 2022, or a blue wave midterm in 2026 if Trump wins for example, and just underestimated the impact of abortion and also the Dems drastically improving their midterm campaign fundraising and financing from midterms in the past. I was wrong... I admit it. But I've been trying to correct my predictions this year using more pure data analysis rather than hearsay and stuff like vibes and yard signs.
It goes beyond Dobbs. 2010, 2014 and 2018 all involved massive demographic shifts that were already happening and were inevitable, in 2022 there wasn't really a demographic shift left for Republicans. The rural and exurban areas were already dark red. Same reason why 2026 likely won't be a huge wave year for Dems if Trump wins - there isn't a huge demographic shift in favor of Dems that's waiting to happen.

The idea that Rosen wins by anywhere near the margin she's polling in currently is silly. I'd be happy to eat crow if Rosen wins by larger than her 2018 margin in a blue wave non-presidential year. But I feel like the shy Brown voter exists and a lot of it is indeed because of his face (and lack of name recognition), similar to the non-hardcore MAGA Trump voter people in Arizona not admitting they're actually going to vote for Kari Lake but they actually will "come home" for the most part.
If you're trying to go by more by data and less by vibes, theorizing about shy voters without any foundation or basis isn't the smart thing to do :lol

David McCormick is a flawed candidate, sure, but less-so than Dr. Oz or someone overall terrible like Kathy Barnette, and finding quality GOP Senate candidates in PA has proven difficult for quite awhile now. Every GOP PA senator in the 21st century has either outright flipped to the other party or flipped on impeaching and convicting their own party's president, and the GOP wants to get away from that stench. I wanted Scott Perry, but he'd be a "flawed candidate" too because the Dems would probably tie him to endorsing project 2025 and being too close to Mastriano. Sean Parnell was an average possible candidate but he lost his House election in 2020 albeit close to a D incumbent and losers don't tend to do better the second or third time for either party (John James R-MI the exception not the rule). There's other congressmen you can pick, I mean Brian Fitzpatrick would probably beat Casey or Fetterman but he'd be another moderate like Toomey for sure and also you probably forfeit that House seat.
McCormick was the best possible candidate (Fitzpatrick wouldn't have ever won a primary), but that doesn't mean he's not flawed and it doesn't mean he's good enough to beat Casey. He's not (outside of a wave year for Republicans). Casey's last name gives him too much of an advantage in the state and he's too noncontroversial. The Pennsylvania Republicans just have an awful bench of candidates to run statewide, same reason they ended up with Mastriano in 2022.

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 04:20 PM

Trump has pulled his Nevada spending. Not terribly surprising since it's not a state that's very useful for his path to 270, but still insane given how dead in the water Biden seemed in Nevada just a couple months ago.

1842308965310562784

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 04:21 PM

It goes beyond Dobbs. 2010, 2014 and 2018 all involved massive demographic shifts that were already happening and were inevitable, in 2022 there wasn't really a demographic shift left for Republicans. The rural and exurban areas were already dark red. Same reason why 2026 likely won't be a huge wave year for Dems if Trump wins - there isn't a huge demographic shift in favor of Dems that's waiting to happen.

I mean you're not totally wrong, I'm just a millennial that grew up with virtually nothing but opposite-of-POTUS-party wave years and so my expectations were accordingly.

Going forward at least in the shorter term the "wave" midterm years should be less and more tempered expectations for the opposition party than they used to be, I agree. At least in terms of the House and Senate.

The main target in 2026 for the Dems should be picking up House seats in very suburban districts that they couldn't quite pull off in 2024 due to the presidential ballot, be it the Schweikert's or Bacon's of the world, as well as seats in California and New York where a second-term Trump probably won't be popular amongst independent voters and the Dems could have the option of nationalizing those races to flip the House back and make Jeffries speaker by Jan. 2027.

The Senate is a rougher picture because the few GOP incumbents that you could argue might be vulnerable (Tillis, maybe you can make a case for Cornyn) are non controversial, non MAGA. We'll see who DeWine picks to fill Vance's seat, if it's LaRose the GOP should be fine holding there too. While, the Democrats will be playing defense in, at minimum, Georgia and Michigan, against potentially strong challengers like Kemp (but we'll see). The Maine flip for the Dems could be on the table but she's [Collins] a tough old bird up there and the ranked choice voting really hurts the Democrats there historically with centrist GOP incumbents like Collins and Olympia Snowe.

If you're trying to go by more by data and less by vibes, theorizing about shy voters without any foundation or basis isn't the smart thing to do :lol

It's less about vibes and more about historical trends and plausible explanations for why people getting polled aren't openly admitting they're voting for a guy with a scarred up face that looks like an albino Na`vi from Avatar, or a MAGA extremist alpha-woman who takes Trumpism and election denialism, media lambasting to a deep, dark extreme.

Your "[Sam Brown] looks like Freddie Kruger" or "[Lake] looks like a lesbian" is just as hearsay-ey and vibe-y as anything I've written.

Granted, I think Gallego and Rosen are both slight favorites at this point to win, (as well as Harris in both states very narrowly) but I'd be downright stunned and eat crow if either (D) senate candidate wins by a likely margin. Dean Heller wasn't really liked by either branch of the GOP base in 2018 fwiw.

McCormick was the best possible candidate (Fitzpatrick wouldn't have ever won a primary), but that doesn't mean he's not flawed and it doesn't mean he's good enough to beat Casey. He's not (outside of a wave year for Republicans). Casey's last name gives him too much of an advantage in the state and he's too noncontroversial. The Pennsylvania Republicans just have an awful bench of candidates to run statewide, same reason they ended up with Mastriano in 2022.
I agree that McCormick was the best possible candidate and that the PA GOP has a pretty awful bench that's about on par with a lot of their candidate benches in blue states. Most of the candidates that would win statewide elections are too bunch of an anathema to one side of the base or the other to both win a primary and win a general. You've got to dig deep, and you also can't look outside the state for candidates because then by default they'd be carpetbaggers, which is a catch-22, which is also largely why Jon Tester has lasted 18 years to this point, because it's hard to find people to run in Montana that are Montana born and raised like Tester. Even Sheehy himself is a carpetbagger from Minnesota, as was Rosendale from the mid-Atlantic, as was the guy before him that lost, etc. But Montana is just too polarized to the right at this point.

Another thing the Dems could do in Ohio is frame Moreno as a thuggin' and druggin' carpetbagger from Colombia, not sure if it'd get Brown over the hump with Trump on the ballot but it'd sure be funny and it's very effective in very patriotic places like Ohio and PA, e.g. tying Dr. Oz to Turkey.

Trump has pulled his Nevada spending. Not terribly surprising since it's not a state that's very useful for his path to 270, but still insane given how dead in the water Biden seemed in Nevada just a couple months ago.

1842308965310562784
That's interesting. I always had Nevada going blue, but yeah Sam Brown is cooked if this is true. I don't think the margins will be more than Harris + 2.4 what Hillary won in 2016, it's a polarized state, but the vibe has definitely been trending blue there since Harris was selected.

It also indicates that the hail-mary that Governor Jim Pillen and Trump tried to pull in Nebraska with changing to a winner-take-all state won't be happening for sure, and that Trump is not confident in NE-02, because punting Nevada also means punting the only path to victory without carrying any of the Rust Belt Three. (I mean, I guess Trump can win Virginia with the Youngkin map, but, I don't see it as super likely.)

Looks like Trump is going all in on the upper Midwest and populism and trying to replicate his 2016 map and no more. Maybe the right move. Can't spread yourself too thin like butter on too much bread, I guess.

If you go by Trump's rally schedule, including Vance rallies, it looks like they're putting all their eggs in six states: GA, AZ, MI, WI, PA, NC. https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events . Nevada, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, and other "reach" states Trump had on the radar at least when Biden was still the nominee, look to have been abandoned.

I've also heard over the phone from Trump insiders that Trump really wants to win on election night like 2016, not later, so it makes more sense to barrel harder in the swing states that aren't in the west because those take forever to count because they're majority mail-in. Meaning, less emphasis on Nevada and also Arizona, though the GOP has a much better ground game in Arizona at the moment. Turning Point USA has gotten a lot of funding in the last few years and they're based in Arizona and they're going hard in the state, so that should give Trump (and Lake) a better chance there in any case.

spurraider21

10-04-2024, 04:51 PM

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 05:10 PM

he knew that me and my wife providing 2 new dem voters eliminated his chances tbh
Make sure you vote for Jackie Rosen. Nevada will go up in flames if Sam Brown is elected.

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 05:37 PM

Make sure you vote for Jackie Rosen. Nevada will go up in flames if Sam Brown is elected.
That's a laughably stupid statement, akin to saying if Trump wins America will be a Christian Nationalist country by 2026, but I got a giggle out of it I guess. Also, yeah, have him write in "Jackie Rosen" oh and write "Joe Biden" too like a solid ~20% of casual typical city democrat voters would do based on the fact they don't even know by now Biden got swapped out, which is also hilarious.

What's there to burn in Nevada anyway... hundreds of square miles of sand, scorched dirt, and dust. The Al/Mark Davis family legacy, I guess, and now the Athletics, who already suck. Does Nevada even have a tree that wasn't planted by humans? Degrowth in all of Nevada and most of Arizona should be part of the green new deal because there's no water and it's too hot for reasonable green human sustainable living long term, tbh.

On a serious note.... people these days are wired to vote straight ticket, so don't think you have to worry about him with that. :lol Governor and state level elections may be a different story but I don't expect anything greater than a total of 3% national all-voter combined split ticket when it comes to President and Senate. ~97% of the population will vote straight ticket at least for president and Senate and with a few exceptions in suburban districts probably House too.

spurraider21

10-04-2024, 05:51 PM

Make sure you vote for Jackie Rosen. Nevada will go up in flames if Sam Brown is elected.
obviously. gonna down-ballot this shit

the polling disparity between senate and presidential race is pretty stark in some states

by polls have nevada as basically a tossup and arizona leaning trump, but both rosen and gallego are projected to fairly easy wins in their respective senate races. i would have thought trump/lake would poll very similarly

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 06:29 PM

obviously. gonna down-ballot this shit

the polling disparity between senate and presidential race is pretty stark in some states

by polls have nevada as basically a tossup and arizona leaning trump, but both rosen and gallego are projected to fairly easy wins in their respective senate races. i would have thought trump/lake would poll very similarly
That's what I've been saying, the polls are massively off with the split ticket and are fucking stupid, just like they had Hogan and Tester ahead in the springtime which are equally stupid. Expect a massive narrowing in polling by election day similar to 2016 in the senate races and don't expect much split ticketing. In Arizona the "Trump / Kelly" split ticket voter was massively overrated by polls, sometimes 6-8% and up, and yet when the votes were counted the difference was a paltry 2.3%, and I don't expect much different in 2024.

Late September/Early October polls are historically horrible, they overestimated Dems in 2016 and 2020 especially down ballot and they overestimated the GOP in many cases in 2022 (Dixon, Oz, Michels, Masters et al). The late October and first week of November polls leading up to E-Day are much more accurate.

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 06:52 PM

That's a laughably stupid statement, akin to saying if Trump wins America will be a Christian Nationalist country by 2026, but I got a giggle out of it I guess. Also, yeah, have him write in "Jackie Rosen" oh and write "Joe Biden" too like a solid ~20% of casual typical city democrat voters would do based on the fact they don't even know by now Biden got swapped out, which is also hilarious.

What's there to burn in Nevada anyway... hundreds of square miles of sand, scorched dirt, and dust. The Al/Mark Davis family legacy, I guess, and now the Athletics, who already suck. Does Nevada even have a tree that wasn't planted by humans? Degrowth in all of Nevada and most of Arizona should be part of the green new deal because there's no water and it's too hot for reasonable green human sustainable living long term, tbh.

On a serious note.... people these days are wired to vote straight ticket, so don't think you have to worry about him with that. :lol Governor and state level elections may be a different story but I don't expect anything greater than a total of 3% national all-voter combined split ticket when it comes to President and Senate. ~97% of the population will vote straight ticket at least for president and Senate and with a few exceptions in suburban districts probably House too.
You wrote all that because you’re too retarded to notice that my “going up in flames” comment was a pun about Sam Brown’s disgustingly grotesque face

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 07:47 PM

You wrote all that because you’re too retarded to notice that my “going up in flames” comment was a pun about Sam Brown’s disgustingly grotesque face

I don't get the reference, but, fair enough I guess.

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 07:49 PM

I don't get the reference, but, fair enough I guess.
His facial scars are the result of burns.

I said Nevada would “go up in flames” if he was elected.

make sense now? :lol

baseline bum

10-04-2024, 08:13 PM

The site seems like a truly enriching place

1837556668537684124

Do they have a Nude San Antonio sister site included with the subscription?

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 10:18 PM

His facial scars are the result of burns.

I said Nevada would “go up in flames” if he was elected.

make sense now? :lol
Oh, okay. I thought it was some movie / pop culture reference that I didn't get. For instance, you'd previously compared him to Freddie Krueger, and I never really was into sci-fi or comics of any kind, so those type of references would have gone over my head.

Keeping this in mind, I don't see why someone like Tammy Duckworth wouldn't be on the table for similar jokes and attacks.... (though that seat probably won't flip back for a very long time if ever).

Do they have a Nude San Antonio sister site included with the subscription?
:lmao

But Jeeeeeezus, Mother Mary, and deh Holy Triniteh told me I can only fawnicate with mah fellow, black, sistahs, and NO, transgendahs!

Will Hunting

10-04-2024, 10:34 PM

Oh, okay. I thought it was some movie / pop culture reference that I didn't get. For instance, you'd previously compared him to Freddie Krueger, and I never really was into sci-fi or comics of any kind, so those type of references would have gone over my head.

Keeping this in mind, I don't see why someone like Tammy Duckworth wouldn't be on the table for similar jokes and attacks.... (though that seat probably won't flip back for a very long time if ever).

:lol make whatever jokes you want about Tammy Duckworth, I don’t care.

Ef-man

10-04-2024, 10:42 PM

he knew that me and my wife providing 2 new dem voters eliminated his chances tbh

So are Dems in NV offering Soro bucks or Gates implants (w/free Hulu for one year) for ballot stuffing like in VA?

Millennial_Messiah

10-04-2024, 11:02 PM

:lol make whatever jokes you want about Tammy Duckworth, I don’t care.

will do. I'm sure with Obama's senate seat, the whole Blagojevich incident, the peglegs, and "tammy tits" taking her newborn daughter into the senate floor and nursing in front of everyone, there's gotta be something there... just can't put my finger on it

So are Dems in NV offering Soro bucks or Gates implants (w/free Hulu for one year) for ballot stuffing like in VA?
"Invite only" :lol

Millennial_Messiah

10-08-2024, 01:30 AM

You could say that about pretty much any Republican that’s racist and a hardliner on immigration, but yes :lol

I feel ya. I actually think it's kind of hard being who we are, pretty obviously supporting one side or the other and being involved but having to shut our mouths about certain issues that would get us kicked out of our respective parties. With you it's those (I agree), but with me it's, if I ever tell people in my right leaning political activist social circles the truth that I'm atheist and pro choice, they basically treat me as if I had leprosy.

Will Hunting

10-08-2024, 07:05 AM

I feel ya. I actually think it's kind of hard being who we are, pretty obviously supporting one side or the other and being involved but having to shut our mouths about certain issues that would get us kicked out of our respective parties. With you it's those (I agree), but with me it's, if I ever tell people in my right leaning political activist social circles the truth that I'm atheist and pro choice, they basically treat me as if I had leprosy.
Yeah liberals have gotten so negatively polarized by Trump into supporting mass immigration that if you say the immigration policy over the last 4 years has been a disaster you’re accused of being racist.

Millennial_Messiah

10-08-2024, 03:11 PM

Yeah liberals have gotten so negatively polarized by Trump into supporting mass immigration that if you say the immigration policy over the last 4 years has been a disaster you’re accused of being racist.

Welp, the Jets fired coach Saleh today. :lmao Maybe they saved their season. At least they promoted their DC to head coach, not Hackett.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/jets-security-had-escort-robert-saleh-out-team-building-after-firing-reports

Looks like the team security had to escort Saleh out of the Jets team security after he found out he got the axe. :lol Perhaps he had a bomb or something?

Will Hunting

10-08-2024, 03:38 PM

Welp, the Jets fired coach Saleh today. :lmao Maybe they saved their season. At least they promoted their DC to head coach, not Hackett.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/jets-security-had-escort-robert-saleh-out-team-building-after-firing-reports

Looks like the team security had to escort Saleh out of the Jets team security after he found out he got the axe. :lol Perhaps he had a bomb or something?
:lol smart move escorting him out with security. Muslim men have terrible impulse control problems (Muslim women have to walk around literally covered head to toe because Muslim men get very rapey at the mere sight of bare skin) so you can never be too careful.

Millennial_Messiah

10-15-2024, 06:35 PM

Trump has taken the lead in both PredictIt and Polymarket. Trump + 3 polls in Michigan, and Senate races on same ticket are narrowing like 2016. Gay Tammy Tits is outta money up there in 'Sconsin. It's falling into place.

ChumpDumper

10-15-2024, 06:52 PM

Millennial_Messiah

10-15-2024, 07:17 PM

How much did you bet on Trump's winning?

10.00 bitcoin back when it was worth about 58k USD each

ChumpDumper

10-15-2024, 10:32 PM

10.00 bitcoin back when it was worth about 58k USD eachSo in reality, nothing.

Millennial_Messiah

10-20-2024, 05:54 PM

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) Dems are TANKING in the purple-state (rust belt) Senate polls. :lol What an epic choke job if not just Sherrod but also Baldwin/Slotkin/Casey all lose, or at least 2 of 3 would probably guarantee a GOP Senate majority for a generation or so even if both Lake and Scarface both lose.

(not Jon Tester; he's getting Heitkamp'd)

UNT Eagles 2016

10-23-2024, 03:23 PM

Moreno >64% on predictit

UNT Eagles 2016

10-24-2024, 03:33 PM

Looks like that "Access Hollywood 2.0" mucktober surprise was a bust, :lol

Blake

10-27-2024, 11:05 AM

florige

10-27-2024, 12:40 PM

" Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people. Trump pushes back in rural areas and among non-college white men, and runs competitively among younger men.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-regains-slight-lead-nationally-electoral-college-holds/story?id=115083875

Just confirming what we all know: the uneducated white guys and the hicks love Trump

It’s crazy. Don Lemon does like random run ups with people in different states and just ask what their positions are and who they are voting for. Put it this way you can tell who is voting for Trump . You usually know before he asks the question at the end who they are voting for

UNT Eagles 2016

10-28-2024, 03:24 PM

Cmon Kamala, just win baby win even if you have to cheat and stuff ballots again like it's 2020

UNT Eagles 2016

10-28-2024, 03:25 PM

" Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people. Trump pushes back in rural areas and among non-college white men, and runs competitively among younger men.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-regains-slight-lead-nationally-electoral-college-holds/story?id=115083875

Just confirming what we all know: the uneducated white guys and the hicks love Trump
"Hispanic people" are not a monolith. if she's running up the score with Latinos in big cities like LA/SF/NYC like with any other race, it won't really affect the election.

ChumpDumper

10-28-2024, 03:35 PM

"Hispanic people" are not a monolith. if she's running up the score with Latinos in big cities like LA/SF/NYC like with any other race, it won't really affect the election.

You should probably look at the Puerto Rican diaspora that Trump just shat on in swing states.

z0sa

10-28-2024, 03:45 PM

Cmon Kamala, just win baby win even if you have to cheat and stuff ballots again like it's 2020

Zero proof this actually happened, for the record.

UNT Eagles 2016

10-28-2024, 03:50 PM

You should probably look at the Puerto Rican diaspora that Trump just shat on in swing states.

What Puerto Ricans are in swing states? They're concentrated in NY/NJ and California. In the big cities that were already going blue by dictator margins anyway.

That's the Dems' best Latino ethnic sub-demographic, but rural Mexican Americans are definitely favoring GOP by a lot which is yuge in places like Arizona, south/west Texas and even NM. Also the central valley of CA which will ensure those house seats stay red.

ChumpDumper

10-28-2024, 04:13 PM

What Puerto Ricans are in swing states?If you want an answer to that question, you should probably look at the Puerto Rican diaspora that Trump just shat on in swing states.

Joseph Kony

10-28-2024, 04:15 PM

What Puerto Ricans are in swing states? They're concentrated in NY/NJ and California. In the big cities that were already going blue by dictator margins anyway.

That's the Dems' best Latino ethnic sub-demographic, but rural Mexican Americans are definitely favoring GOP by a lot which is yuge in places like Arizona, south/west Texas and even NM. Also the central valley of CA which will ensure those house seats stay red.
1850628848527741341

UNT Eagles 2016

10-28-2024, 10:09 PM

1850628848527741341

Yeah, my mom lived in Philly before she got pregnant with me and she did tell me once that even in the late 80s and early 90s there's a fuckton of puertorriquenos there, to the extent that the Mexicans mainly stay out of there because the PR drug lords there don't want them.

so it's pretty much just PA. The Florida puertorriquenos vote well to the right of other PR-American peeps and have for awhile. They aren't flipping. Muh socialism is the biggest issue there and they vote almost in line with the Cubans.

Not really enough in NC, GA, WI, or MI to factor in. More Arab Muslims that voted Democrat from 2002 to 2022 but are staying home or protest-voting Trump in the latter two than Puerto Ricans.

UNT Eagles 2016

10-28-2024, 10:12 PM

Kamala SURGING on PredictIt, now back over 40% and Trump under 60%

https://www.predictit.org/markets

I would assume BTC is about to sell-off again shortly especially now that it topped 70k like in June

TSA

10-29-2024, 10:13 AM

You should probably look at the Puerto Rican diaspora that Trump just shat on in swing states.

https://x.com/RealPData/status/1851042479577112895

Blake

10-29-2024, 10:28 AM

https://x.com/RealPData/status/1851042479577112895

I can't believe you trumptards would rather strawman teh libs instead of chastise Trump and Co for the "Puerto Rico stuff"

Maybe at this point I actually can believe it

TSA

10-29-2024, 10:38 AM

I can't believe you trumptards would rather strawman teh libs instead of chastise Trump and Co for the "Puerto Rico stuff"

Maybe at this point I actually can believe it

https://x.com/piersmorgan/status/1851230925448696003

:cry

Blake

10-29-2024, 10:46 AM

https://x.com/piersmorgan/status/1851230925448696003

:cry

"Bringing a comedian like that to the Trump rally probably not the best idea"

Is there something else to the clip or are you just reposting without watching your own tweet video?

TSA

10-29-2024, 10:59 AM

"Bringing a comedian like that to the Trump rally probably not the best idea"

Is there something else to the clip or are you just reposting without watching your own tweet video?

:cry pls why no chastise :cry

TSA

10-29-2024, 11:35 AM

You should probably look at the Puerto Rican diaspora that Trump just shat on in swing states.

https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/1851294095001436170

:rollin

ChumpDumper

10-29-2024, 11:52 AM

https://x.com/RealPData/status/1851042479577112895

HOLY SHIT A BLUE CHECK

Blake

10-29-2024, 11:53 AM

:cry pls why no chastise :cry

:lol you're gonna vote Trump

ChumpDumper

10-29-2024, 11:54 AM

https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/1851294095001436170

:rollin

:lol why would she feel the need to do that now since it's already in the bag?

:lmao and why would it take a Republican this long to endorse Trump?

Blake

10-29-2024, 12:10 PM

Puerto Ricans now remembering how Trump treated them during the hurricane

https://i.makeagif.com/media/10-29-2020/qKf9uN.gif

florige

10-29-2024, 12:57 PM

:lol why would she feel the need to do that now since it's already in the bag?

:lmao and why would it take a Republican this long to endorse Trump?

Trump campaign probably made frantic calls to as many Puerto Rican lawmakers that they could think of to endorse Trump so that they could try and stop the bleeding

ChumpDumper

10-29-2024, 01:04 PM

Trump campaign probably made frantic calls to as many Puerto Rican lawmakers that they could think of to endorse Trump so that they could try and stop the bleeding

Well that was a yuge get, seeing as she got a devastating 27% mandate from the voters of Puerto Rico.

TSA sure showed me!

TSA

10-29-2024, 01:11 PM

Well that was a yuge get, seeing as she got a devastating 27% mandate from the voters of Puerto Rico.

TSA sure showed me!

You should probably look at the Puerto Rican diaspora in swing states that Trump just shat on.

:cry oh noes the swing states :cry

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

oof

ChumpDumper

10-29-2024, 01:30 PM

GUYZ A REPUBLICAN POLITICIAN FROM PUERTO RICO JUST ENDORSED TRUMP

ON OCTOBER 29

IN PENNSYLVANIA

FOR NO REASON OTHER THAN PURE TRUMPLOVE

UNT Eagles 2016

10-29-2024, 02:04 PM

PA is going Harris by like 600 votes. But McCormick might win. McCormick is definitely going to outperform Trump.

Slotkin and Baldwin's re elections are pure poll toss ups now too, I expect them both to underperform Harris and potentially lose

Blake

10-29-2024, 02:07 PM

GUYZ A REPUBLICAN POLITICIAN FROM PUERTO RICO JUST ENDORSED TRUMP

ON OCTOBER 29

IN PENNSYLVANIA

FOR NO REASON OTHER THAN PURE TRUMPLOVE

Oh how the turn tables...

TSA

10-29-2024, 02:10 PM

GUYZ A SINGER FROM PUERTO RICO JUST ENDORSED HARRIS

ON OCTOBER 28

ON INSTAGRAM

FOR NO REASON OTHER THAN PURE HARRISLOVE

THIS WILL COST TRUMP THE SWING STATES

Blake

10-29-2024, 03:37 PM

GUYZ A SINGER FROM PUERTO RICO JUST ENDORSED HARRIS

ON OCTOBER 28

ON INSTAGRAM

FOR NO REASON OTHER THAN PURE HARRISLOVE

THIS WILL COST TRUMP THE SWING STATES

Totally the same thing

ChumpDumper

10-29-2024, 04:16 PM

GUYZ A SINGER FROM PUERTO RICO JUST ENDORSED HARRIS

ON OCTOBER 28

ON INSTAGRAM

FOR NO REASON OTHER THAN PURE HARRISLOVE

THIS WILL COST TRUMP THE SWING STATES

:lol Trump had really racist and nationalist speakers at his Bund rally.

Did you like the racist things that were said there?

Yes or no.

And why did the Republican Senator from PR endorse Trump today as reported by you?

ChumpDumper

10-29-2024, 05:47 PM

Clearly not worried about Pennsylvania.

1851239988676985312

https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1851239988676985312

UNT Eagles 2016

10-30-2024, 12:52 AM

Clearly not worried about Pennsylvania.

1851239988676985312

https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1851239988676985312

Trump's better off holding the sun belt and trying for VA or NM or something than blowing so much on PA which is a corrupt artificially-blue state. We saw what happened to McCain in '08 when he put all his eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.

HemisfairArena

10-30-2024, 01:18 AM

democrats had Trump on the ropes with comedian and the Puerto Rico shit,,,,,,but the old cryptkeeper comes through and gives back homefield advantage to the republicans with his garbage comment,,,,all the air went out of the democrats sails right then and you can bet Obama is mad as hell at the old white cryptkeeper right now,,,,everyones talking about the garbage comment now and Puerto Rico is just an afterthought,,,,,thanks, Joe,,,,,:bobo

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 02:25 AM

Winehole23

10-30-2024, 06:44 AM

I'm definitely not voting for Biden now

Blake

10-30-2024, 09:25 AM

Honestly, who let Joe get in front of a microphone?

TSA

10-30-2024, 09:36 AM

:lol Trump had really racist and nationalist speakers at his Bund rally.

Did you like the racist things that were said there?

Yes or no.

And why did the Republican Senator from PR endorse Trump today as reported by you?

I don't watch Trump rallies but apparently you do. I don't like racist things being said but you and I likely have a different opinion on what is racist and what is not racist. List the really racist and nationalist speakers at his Bund rally and all the racist things that were said there and I'll let you know my thoughts on what was said.

Blake

10-30-2024, 09:54 AM

I don't watch Trump rallies but apparently you do. I don't like racist things being said but you and I likely have a different opinion on what is racist and what is not racist. List the really racist and nationalist speakers at his Bund rally and all the racist things that were said there and I'll let you know my thoughts on what was said.

You don't have to watch the rallies to know these things. If you would view other content outside Q and AR15 forums you'd know it's all over the news.

TSA

10-30-2024, 10:13 AM

You don't have to watch the rallies to know these things. If you would view other content outside Q and AR15 forums you'd know it's all over the news.

We have the local news on every morning in my office...it's on right now. I've been in the office for 2 hours now and it hasn't been mentioned.

Since you wanted to jump in with some weak ass attempted dig...list the really racist and nationalist speakers at his Bund rally and all the racist things that were said there and I'll let you know my thoughts on what was said.

Leetonidas

10-30-2024, 10:20 AM

TSA

10-30-2024, 10:21 AM

Pure copium

Pure projection

SnakeBoy

10-30-2024, 10:34 AM

Thanks Joe

Joseph Kony

10-30-2024, 10:49 AM

:cry old joe called us garbage what a big meanie :cry

fuck your feelings, whiny ass crybabies

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 11:23 AM

I don't watch Trump rallies but apparently you do. I don't like racist things being said but you and I likely have a different opinion on what is racist and what is not racist. List the really racist and nationalist speakers at his Bund rally and all the racist things that were said there and I'll let you know my thoughts on what was said.

Really good job pre-excusing the racism.

No need to continue.

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 11:24 AM

We have the local news on every morning in my office...it's on right now. I've been in the office for 2 hours now and it hasn't been mentioned.

Since you wanted to jump in with some weak ass attempted dig...list the really racist and nationalist speakers at his Bund rally and all the racist things that were said there and I'll let you know my thoughts on what was said.

We know how this will end. You'll say nothing was racist and Republicans are just doing everything perfectly, especially Trump.

Good job pretending you can't Google "racist remarks Trump rally." No notes.

Blake

10-30-2024, 11:36 AM

TSA

10-30-2024, 12:04 PM

Pretty funny you also call it the Bund rally.

Why?

TSA

10-30-2024, 12:05 PM

We know how this will end. You'll say nothing was racist and Republicans are just doing everything perfectly, especially Trump.

Good job pretending you can't Google "racist remarks Trump rally." No notes.

You're the one claiming racists things were said. If you don't want to back your claim that's fine.

No need to continue.

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 12:08 PM

You're the one claiming racists things were said. If you don't want to back your claim that's fine.

No need to continue.You already said you will not find anything racist about it.

Why should I argue when your stated prejudice is this strong?

The fact you are completely ignorant about what was said is a fantastic example of your media silo. No wonder you believe every conspiracy theory the right feeds you. It's all you consume.

z0sa

10-30-2024, 12:18 PM

:lol calling brown people's territory a floating pile of garbage has nothing to do with race, people! It's clearly all a personal flaw that has absolutely nothing with who they are personally, or some brain-twister like it.

TSA

10-30-2024, 12:21 PM

You already said you will not find anything racist about it.

Why should I argue when your stated prejudice is this strong?

The fact you are completely ignorant about what was said is a fantastic example of your media silo. No wonder you believe every conspiracy theory the right feeds you. It's all you consume.

I never said I will not find anything racist about it.

Why should I argue when you completely fabricate things and lie?

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 12:27 PM

I never said I will not find anything racist about it.

Why should I argue when you completely fabricate things and lie?You're not arguing. You pre-excused everything that was said without even knowing one thing that was said. Then you demanded I spoon feed you a news story that has been dominating national headlines for days AFTER you specifically posted about a Puerto Rican endorsement for Trump.

Did you really not know what that was about?

TSA

10-30-2024, 12:35 PM

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 12:44 PM

You're lying again.

I didn't pre-excuse anything. You claimed racists things were said. You asked me if I liked the racists things that were said. I didn't watch the rally and asked you what racist things were said in order to answer your previous question of whether or not I liked what was said.

Instead of posting the racists things that you claim were said you resort to lying.

I ignored you for years because of your continuous lying and I'm now wondering why I ever thought conversing with you again would be different this time.You're right. I'm making assumptions about your excusing racism based on your saying you have a different definition of racism.

Let's back up a bit.

You posted specifically about a Puerto Rican endorsement for Trump in Pennsylvania with zero knowledge of why Puerto Ricans were suddenly important in the state of Pennsylvania?

Please explain.

SnakeBoy

10-30-2024, 02:20 PM

lol still crying about a comedian's joke

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 02:21 PM

lol Snacks still loving the racism

koriwhat

10-30-2024, 02:31 PM

lol still crying about a comedian's joke

These people are sick tbh. Tony has said way worse and the jokes landed unlike his standup at that rally. Tony is hilarious and is a roast king by trade.

I would've never imagined that we'd get to this day and age where comedy might be killed off because so many have subscribed to a humorless death cult. It's wild especially in the USA.

From fine arts, to music, to comedy, the left always finds a way to ruin the arts unfortunately.

SnakeBoy

10-30-2024, 03:11 PM

These people are sick tbh. Tony has said way worse and the jokes landed unlike his standup at that rally. Tony is hilarious and is a roast king by trade.

I would've never imagined that we'd get to this day and age where comedy might be killed off because so many have subscribed to a humorless death cult. It's wild especially in the USA.

From fine arts, to music, to comedy, the left always finds a way to ruin the arts unfortunately.

Yeah they definitely are suffering from some sort of mental illness. Or maybe they're just angry bitter people who can't stand it that others enjoy life.

SnakeBoy

10-30-2024, 03:17 PM

Halperin is predicting the greatest mental health crisis in history if Trumps wins. I sure hope it happens.

1851678115770306773

TSA

10-30-2024, 03:18 PM

I give Dennison a 3% chance of winning PA. NV is not in play either, IMHO.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-harris

oof

Blake

10-30-2024, 03:25 PM

lol still crying about a comedian's joke

Now you're team is crying. Now what?

TSA

10-30-2024, 03:32 PM

Pulling out of NC and sending Bill to NH...her internals are worse than I thought :rollin

https://x.com/LaCivitaC/status/1851265226194194718

https://x.com/JasonMillerinDC/status/1851697703958515891

TSA

10-30-2024, 03:41 PM

SnakeBoy

10-30-2024, 03:42 PM

1851426637742526925

1851675681261814190

1851707467434020938

Thanks Joe

ChumpDumper

10-30-2024, 03:51 PM

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-harris

oof

Why is Trump so concerned about Pennsylvania then?

UNT Eagles 2016

10-30-2024, 04:07 PM

Kamala definitely surging a little bit today, not a lot, but a little

UNT Eagles 2016

10-30-2024, 04:09 PM

Bucking the national trend at the POTUS level, Trump seems to be locking down AZ and Kari Lake is definitely trending upward big time:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8070/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona

It's been at >80% or better for Gallego for months. Down to 70% and falling.

I can definitely see a D president winning but with the GOP winning 54-55 Senate seats (because McCormick, Rogers, and Hovde will all outperform Trump as they typically do in the rust belt in 2016 and 2020 by around 1% or so. Fact: A GOP rust belt Senate candidate has never underperformed Trump on the same ballot. Also, those three are strong candidates, and not the Dr. Oz's and Herschel Walker's of the world. You could make a case that Rogers is the strongest GOP Senate candidate in Michigan they've put up in decades. John James wasn't even a great candidate, and almost took out an incumbent Gary Peters.) -- and retain a slim House majority.

florige

10-30-2024, 04:52 PM

Honestly, who let Joe get in front of a microphone?

If I didn’t know any better I would swear that it seems Biden has to be bitter and is trying to sabotage the Dem’s. There was absolutely no reason at all for him to come out literally a week before the election and make a stupid statement like that. Or at the very least he could had just waited until next week. Harris had the whole Trump klan rally in her back pocket and Biden just makes this stupid statement just because

UNT Eagles 2016

10-30-2024, 05:07 PM

If I didn’t know any better I would swear that it seems Biden has to be bitter and is trying to sabotage the Dem’s. There was absolutely no reason at all for him to come out literally a week before the election and make a stupid statement like that. Or at the very least he could had just waited until next week. Harris had the whole Trump klan rally in her back pocket and Biden just makes this stupid statement just because

I actually think it's the case, Biden got soft-couped out and wants to stick it to Harris, he never liked her in the first place since she hurt his feelings in 2019, the DNC forced her on him in 2020 and now he'd like to stick it to her in 2024 but also I think Biden, Obama and a lot of Dems are aware that they're probably better off losing this time around and letting the GOP implode on itself beyond. The problem for the Dems about losing this year is all the Senate seats up that won't split ticket.

SnakeBoy

10-30-2024, 07:32 PM

Ol Joe used to shit his pants, now he just shits on Kamala.

TSA

10-31-2024, 10:49 AM

Pulling out of NC and sending Bill to NH...her internals are worse than I thought :rollin

https://x.com/LaCivitaC/status/1851265226194194718

https://x.com/JasonMillerinDC/status/1851697703958515891

Meanwhile...

https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1852000757576319023

Winehole23

10-31-2024, 11:42 AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbOqUuzXwAAnD6_?format=jpg&name=large

TSA

10-31-2024, 11:58 AM

lol still crying about a comedian's jokehttps://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1851975937178353772

Poll: Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris with Puerto Ricans in Florida

Even after a toxic news cycle driven by a comic’s ill-advised comments about Puerto Ricans at a Donald Trump rally, the former President holds a marginal lead with that constituency in a new poll.

Trump is up by two points against Kamala Harris in the survey released by Cygnal and shared first with Florida Politics.

The survey was conducted between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28, encompassing Sunday, when the comedian “Kill Tony” said Puerto Rico was an “island of garbage” at the former President’s rally in Madison Square Garden.

Democrats linked those comments to Trump, but at least in this survey, the former President isn’t suffering collateral damage with the group maligned by the roast comic’s untimely routine.

The marginal lead with Puerto Ricans is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Trump’s strength and that of others with Hispanics in this poll.

Trump has 50% support among Hispanic voters overall, which Cygnal notes is better than his 46% in 2020’s race against Joe Biden and the 35% he had against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

A big source of that strength: Trump being up 28 points with Cuban Americans.

Trump is at 49% approval among Hispanics overall, against 49% disapproval. In contrast, Harris is at 45% approval and 50% disapproval.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/704475-poll-donald-trump-leads-kamala-harris-with-puerto-ricans-in-florida/

:lmao :lmao :lmao

SnakeBoy

10-31-2024, 12:59 PM

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1851975937178353772

Poll: Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris with Puerto Ricans in Florida

Even after a toxic news cycle driven by a comic’s ill-advised comments about Puerto Ricans at a Donald Trump rally, the former President holds a marginal lead with that constituency in a new poll.

Trump is up by two points against Kamala Harris in the survey released by Cygnal and shared first with Florida Politics.

The survey was conducted between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28, encompassing Sunday, when the comedian “Kill Tony” said Puerto Rico was an “island of garbage” at the former President’s rally in Madison Square Garden.

Democrats linked those comments to Trump, but at least in this survey, the former President isn’t suffering collateral damage with the group maligned by the roast comic’s untimely routine.

The marginal lead with Puerto Ricans is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Trump’s strength and that of others with Hispanics in this poll.

Trump has 50% support among Hispanic voters overall, which Cygnal notes is better than his 46% in 2020’s race against Joe Biden and the 35% he had against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

A big source of that strength: Trump being up 28 points with Cuban Americans.

Trump is at 49% approval among Hispanics overall, against 49% disapproval. In contrast, Harris is at 45% approval and 50% disapproval.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/704475-poll-donald-trump-leads-kamala-harris-with-puerto-ricans-in-florida/

:lmao :lmao :lmao

Win or lose, Trump has run a great campaign this time around

Spurs Homer

10-31-2024, 01:18 PM

https://youtu.be/bU7HEDxdC8Q?si=SgpkVmLu-cTAKLF2

SnakeBoy

10-31-2024, 01:24 PM

1852024845195731159

ChumpDumper

10-31-2024, 01:25 PM

:lol "suggests"

You guys are proving to be incredible snowflakes after all.:tu

UNT Eagles 2016

10-31-2024, 04:39 PM

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1851975937178353772

Forgetting about demographics for a second.

That is absolutely horrible numbers for Trump and the GOP in Florida.

If he doesn't win Florida by near double or double digits, he's not winning the election.

Then again, polls typically historically massively underestimate him and the GOP in Florida especially in recent elections. I think DeSantis and Rubio outperformed polls by like 8%.

UNT Eagles 2016

10-31-2024, 04:40 PM

Kamala SURGES to 50% on PredictIt:

https://www.predictit.org/markets

Bitcoin FALLS from $73k to $70k. Expect a much bigger crash if Kamala wins, at least in the very short term. Long term crypto should be alright

UNT Eagles 2016

10-31-2024, 06:10 PM

Chances of Trump winning popular vote but losing election are increasing.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

Trump up nationally by 0.4% with +1 and +2 polls being released in favor of Trump. Harris is up by under 0.5% in WI and MI and even though Trump leads PA the polls don't tend to miss in favor of Trump in PA like they do in WI or MI historically. Trump is already crying cheating in PA and McCormick is a poll overperformer.

I hope Trump wins the popular vote but Harris wins the electoral college (just for shits and giggles) at the last minute after some 5am vote dumps or whatever to put her just barely over the top in WI, MI, and PA, just for shits and giggles to make him cry again. Man that would be epic, :lol

But hopefully the GOP ends up with between 54 and 57 Senate seats because of very narrow ticket splitting that is in line with past very narrow ticket splitting in favor of the rust-belt GOP Senate candidates in 2016 and 2020. So we'll have gridlock which is good. Hopefully the GOP also retains at least a slight house majority, which would naturally largely be by virtue of winning the popular vote by flipping/retaining districts in blue and purple states. Gridlock is best case scenario because you get a limit on spending and government power. And you're unlikely to get a partisan hack in the supreme court if the president and senate are opposite controlled.

In the sun belt Kari Lake has been surging and it'd piss off the libs epically if she won that senate seat after all :lol Trump will likely have to carry AZ by 2.3% or better for Lake to win, but it's plausible

Winehole23

10-31-2024, 06:14 PM

that would be hilarious

Winehole23

10-31-2024, 06:14 PM

"republic, not a democracy" :lol

UNT Eagles 2016

10-31-2024, 06:20 PM

that would be hilarious
In such a case the result would be 270-268 Harris, which in ordinary years you might have to worry about defective faithless electors, but in this circumstance you better believe that both sides would be putting up the most vetted, faithless electors possible to certify party line on Jan 6. The Dems did a horrible job of that in 2016 but it didn't really matter.

the alternative scenario to avoid that would be giving Harris Nevada very narrowly to provide a cushion of up to 6 faithless electors which would be more than enough (276-262 Harris), which would net the GOP a realistic maximum of 56 senate seats (don't really see NV split ticketing) which would still be plenty. (Cue the spongebob gutter picture of all the GOP swing race candidates winning but Trump losing.)

but yes, that would be by far the funniest way for trump to lose and be kicked out of politics.

SnakeBoy

10-31-2024, 06:43 PM

1851768701780938770

ChumpDumper

10-31-2024, 06:45 PM

1851768701780938770

Oh no! This means you win!

Unless Trump loses. Which means you win!

Winehole23

10-31-2024, 06:46 PM

lol fair weather posters soothing their nerves at the last second, it's a win/win!

SnakeBoy

10-31-2024, 06:59 PM

lol fair weather posters soothing their nerves at the last second, it's a win/win!

I've said that since you libs decided to go ridin with Biden

The fact that you're now standing shoulder to shoulder with Dick Cheney should tell you something

Winehole23

10-31-2024, 07:05 PM

I've said that since you libs decided to go ridin with Biden

The fact that you're now standing shoulder to shoulder with Dick Cheney should tell you somethingnah, you've got me mixed up with someone else

ChumpDumper

10-31-2024, 07:07 PM

I've said that since you libs decided to go ridin with Biden

The fact that you're now standing shoulder to shoulder with Dick Cheney should tell you something

That your Trump is an unprecedented disaster. You have shitty judgment which is why you have to declare victory no matter what.:tu

FrostKing

10-31-2024, 07:15 PM

https://i.ibb.co/vs8dnkY/IMG-20241031-222711.jpg

2016 boys checking in

Ef-man

10-31-2024, 07:28 PM

Yam Tits will call out media fake as soon as he loses, again

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/01/09/11/3BFB72CD00000578-4101328-image-m-2_1483961950177.jpg

FrostKing

10-31-2024, 09:22 PM

I'm outta the loop

Who will win fellas?

Winehole23

10-31-2024, 09:38 PM

Scenario 1: Trump wins the popular vote and the ostensible electoral majority outright.

Possibly complicated by his scheduled criminal sentencing before his inauguration, but in this instance I think Harris concedes.

Scenario 2: Harris wins the popular vote and the ostensible electoral majority. Trump will not concede.

If the states do not certify the electors on time, an ostensibly winning Harris can be deprived of electoral votes.

Whatever dispute issues at that point is a federal matter under the ECRA that eventually ends up before a very partisan SCOTUS, that can pretty much be relied upon to propel Trump to his ultimate potency.

Winehole23

10-31-2024, 09:42 PM

Scenario 3: Harris wins with an overwhelming popular vote. Not a landslide, but a decisive margin.

Trump will not concede and shenanigans will ensue, but they will be -- possibly -- less convincing.

UNT Eagles 2016

10-31-2024, 10:32 PM

^ that's literally well under half the plausible scenarios