Rockets vs Spurs - Plus/Minus

[Kori Ellis]

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/gameflow.cgi?date=20070124&game=HOUSAS

As I expected, whenever Bowen/Duncan/Parker sat, that spelled disaster.

With Parker on the bench at the end of the 3rd/beginning of 4th, the Spurs were -11 in that stretch. Bowen didn't come back in til later (they were -15 in that stretch when he was out). And then they went +8 after that.

For the game, Parker and Bowen were high at +10 and +11.

Barry (-14), Horry (-11) and Elson (-8) were all horrible.

As were the point guards, Vaughn (-11) and Beno (-4). (Someone off the waiver wire or DLeague can probably do better)

The bench sucks.

And Pop needs to stop sitting Parker and Duncan together, poor Manu got stranded out there with the bench players and the offense died.

They MUST go back to the philosophy of keeping 2 of the Big 3 on the floor at all times. The bench isn't strong enough to leave only 1 of them out there.

Adjust, Pop.

[GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI]

That lineup was Vaughn, Manu, Barry, Finley and Horry was classic

[timvp]

Somehow Parker and Bowen got most of the blame tonight ... and they led the team in +/-.

Shows you how clueless most Spurs fans are.

[timvp]

In the six minutes of action that McGrady was on the court without Bowen, he scored 12 of his 37 points and dished out 2 of his 3 assists. McGrady didn't miss a shot with Bowen on the bench.

That highlights two things:

1) Bowen is still by far the best perimeter defender on the team. Watching McGrady go against Ginobili and Barry was a joke.

2) Not having a long three after all these years is just stupid. How this team didn't get even a decent long small forward on this roster blows my mind. Pop said right after the loss to the Mavericks that the Spurs needed to get a "Derrick McKey type player". And we are still waiting . . .

[Mr. Body]

Not having a long three after all these years is just stupid. How this team didn't get even a decent long small forward on this roster blows my mind. Pop said right after the loss to the Mavericks that the Spurs needed to get a "Derrick McKey type player". And we are still waiting . . .

Nearly every team in the league has a dynamic, versatile young small forward, from Caron Butler in Washington to Luke Walton in Los Angeles, and everyone in between... the Grangers, the Howards, the Dengs and Nocionis... With the decline of the center in the more mobile NBA, the small forward has gotten increasingly important.

Q: Who did Pop mean when he mentioned the Derrick McKey player? Did he have someone in mind? Did they think they could get someone at that point? Was it someone in the draft and why did they fail to get him? Who was it?

If we fail to get a Corey Brewer in this draft or get someone via trade or free agency it might as well be curtains. We cannot survive without a modern, talented small forward.

[WalterBenitez]

What about POP, how well he coached the game?

[ShoogarBear]

Somehow Parker and Bowen got most of the blame tonight ... and they led the team in +/-.

Shows you how clueless most Spurs fans are.I've given up hope that Spur fans would be more sophisticated than others when it comes to evaluating defensive play.

Bowen was in McGrady's jock almost as much as it is possible to be with a player of that caliber, and the clueless were prattling on about how bad his defense was. Bruce has lost a step and had some off nights on defense, but last night wasn't one of them.

[Supergirl]

Is it possible to keep either Duncan/Parker, Duncan/Manu, or Parker/Manu on the floor at all times?

[Kori Ellis]

Is it possible to keep either Duncan/Parker, Duncan/Manu, or Parker/Manu on the floor at all times?

Not every second, but they can do it better than they are doing it. In the past it was a priority to try. Now, sometimes there are six minute stretches with just one of them out on the floor.

And that's when everything dies.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Adjust, Pop.

:wow Kori, welcome to the church of AHF :lol

[ploto]

Last season Pop got used to playing that Manu plus the bench line-up late in the season when Rasho started coming off the bench. He would play Manu, Beno (NVE was injured), Brent or Finley, Horry and Rasho to start the second quarter. There were several games late last season that this line-up actually outperformed the starters in terms of +/- game stats, epsecially because Manu usually took over then. Now, you can see Manu forcing it when he is out there with the bench because he isn't getting any help.

[ShoogarBear]

Rasho :sleep

[timvp]

Bowen was in McGrady's jock almost as much as it is possible to be with a player of that caliber, and the clueless were prattling on about how bad his defense was.

Bowen did a damn good job, especially considering that the bench let McGrady got rolling. 12 points in 6 minutes without Bowen on the court is a joke. You let a player like McGrady get rolling and you could put anyone you want on him and he's going to go off.

[VaSpursFan]

Not every second, but they can do it better than they are doing it. In the past it was a priority to try. Now, sometimes there are six minute stretches with just one of them out on the floor.

And that's when everything dies.

this has driven me nuts all season. pop's rotations are atrocious...and he's so mechanical that he never deviates from them. for the life of me, like clockwork, he'll follow his rotation and take the player out of the game, even if they're on fire. i don't get it but whenever i see it, i laugh because I think of Phil Jackson calling Pop and his staff the simulator crew implying that Pop is incapable of deviating from the game plan and adjusting on the fly. I thought Phil was just talking shit back then...but I'm beginning to see truth in Phil's assessment.

[nkdlunch]

And Pop needs to stop sitting Parker and Duncan together, poor Manu got stranded out there with the bench players and the offense died.

They MUST go back to the philosophy of keeping 2 of the Big 3 on the floor at all times. The bench isn't strong enough to leave only 1 of them out there.

Adjust, Pop.

Pop has been doing this for years and years. Most games this is the 1st quarter script:

-spurs start 1st quarter pretty good and build an early lead.
-at the 6 minute mark, Pop ALWAYS sits Manu.
-Spurs usually maintain lead until Pop sits Duncan AND Parker at the 4 or 3 minute mark of the quarter
-He usually brings manu alone back for the last 2 mins of a quarter, Spurs usually lose the lead by then because of the sorry bench

that's our sorry 1st quarters

Pop sucks!

[Bruno]

I'm not a fan at all of +/- stats on only one game because it's not really meaningfull : the best example of that is the last game against Mavs the player with the best +/- was Udrih and he was horrible during this game.

I agree that Spurs must 2 of the big 3 at the same time on the florr for 48 min but it's not that easy.
Duncan play 40min, Parker 36min and Manu 36 min : that means that you can only have the big 3 together during 16 min (and 2 of 3 during 32min).
16 mins is quite few given that you wan to have the big 3 togetheer at the start of the 1st and 3rd quarter and at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarter. The best solution is maybe to bench one (Manu).

[Kori Ellis]

I'm not a fan at all of +/- stats on only one game because it's not really meaninful

Sometimes it's not meaningful. You have to watch the game and also look at the stats to figure out if it means much.

Last night, the offense died during the times Tony/Bowen/Tim were on the bench.

The Spurs were +10 with Tony in and -15 with Beno/Vaughn.

The stretch from near the end of the third, until midway through the 4th was atrocious. It's not a wonder when lineups like Oberto/Finley/Barry/Manu/Vaughn were on the floor. Poor Manu.

[ShoogarBear]

Duncan play 40min, Parker 36min and Manu 36 min : that means that you can only have the big 3 together during 16 min (and 2 of 3 during 32min).
Manu won't hold up playing 36 minutes in the regular season. His are the minutes that have to be watched most closely, both in total number and in distribution (since you probably want him out there for at least 10 minutes of the fourth).

You can try to give the big three more total minutes, but that's at the risk of having them burned out by the playoffs. The better solution is to distribute the minutes smarter, as people have been saying, and not have two of them on the bench at the same time.

[boutons_]

Does anybody have any HARD DATA about this "burned out in the season, so failed in the playoffs? For a player, for a team?

[Bruno]

Spurs really lack a 4th scoring option.
Last year it was Finley, it was great but this year it's even worse. Spurs 4th score is Barry and he scores only 8.5 ppg.

Spurs are the only team in the league with only 3 players averaging 9.0ppg. The fact that a player like Maggette won't get shots with SA is BS. In fact Spurs lack scorers : Finley, Udrih and Bonner have taken a lot of shots that could have been taken by a more efficient scorer.

[Bruno]

Manu won't hold up playing 36 minutes in the regular season. His are the minutes that have to be watched most closely, both in total number and in distribution (since you probably want him out there for at least 10 minutes of the fourth).

You can try to give the big three more total minutes, but that's at the risk of having them burned out by the playoffs. The better solution is to distribute the minutes smarter, as people have been saying, and not have two of them on the bench at the same time.

I've taken yesterday minutes but I agree that Manu won't play 36mpg or Duncan 40mpg. I guess they will play the same amount during playoffs too. The only way not to have two on the bench at the same time during the regular season is to bench Manu.

[ArgSpursFan]

Is it possible to keep either Duncan/Parker, Duncan/Manu, or Parker/Manu on the floor at all times?

There´s actually one of them always on the floor,thing is the bench guys suck.

[Drive Like Jehu]

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/gameflow.cgi?date=20070124&game=HOUSAS
.

They MUST go back to the philosophy of keeping 2 of the Big 3 on the floor at all times. The bench isn't strong enough to leave only 1 of them out there.


That'd be easier with Manu coming off the bench.

[timvp]

The only way not to have two on the bench at the same time during the regular season is to bench Manu.

Where have I heard that before?


:smokin

[timvp]

I'm not a fan at all of +/- stats on only one game because it's not really meaningfull

Which conclusion from the +/- did you not agree with?

[Bruno]

Which conclusion from the +/- did you not agree with?

I haven't watched the Rockets game, so I have nothing to say about these conclusions. I'm sure that they are right. :)

It was just a general remark because sometimes people say that a player has been good only because his +/- stats are great on a game.

[wildbill2u]

When Bowen and El/berto aren't giving us any offense, the big 3 are playing 3 on 5. The lack of points and rebounds from the 3 and 5 position last night were telling. You can't simply point to the defense and say there's the problem in one of those +/-
ratios because part of the equasion is offense as well.

That being said, when Bowen needs a break, put Manu on his man. He's not as skilled as Bowen on defense, but he will be all over the guy like stink on shit and never quit trying. Perpetual Harrassment will go a long way to unsettling even a veteran shooter.

Axiom: Never take out both Parker and TD when Manu is replacing Bowen.

Then your lineup is something like --ManuSF , BarrySG, TDPF, El/Berto, Beno or Vaugn. You could replace El/berto with Horry at PF and move Tim to C.

or in the other substitution with TD out --ManuSF, Parker, Elberto, Horry, Beno or Vaughn.

Either way or with any other adjustment I can figure out, when Bowen leaves the defense suffers. The question is whether they can play well enough on offense to pick up the difference.

Some people may want to spot substitute Finley for Barry in these lineups but he's not giving us much IMHO and Barry should be getting the minutes ahead of him.

Hell, I bet this same problem with rotation is giving Pop fits. Nothing works right.

[Que Gee]

Somehow Parker and Bowen got most of the blame tonight ... and they led the team in +/-.

Shows you how clueless most Spurs fans are.

Ya, the +/- explains everything....
:drunk

[ShoogarBear]

That being said, when Bowen needs a break, put Manu on his man. He's not as skilled as Bowen on defense, but he will be all over the guy like stink on shit and never quit trying. Perpetual Harrassment will go a long way to unsettling even a veteran shooter.McGrady destroyed Manu last night. Manu is a great off-the-ball/help defender, but on the ball he's average at best. On at least one play Manu was playing about seven feet off McGrady, like his first priority was to try to help on somebody else.

[wildbill2u]

McGrady destroyed Manu last night. Manu is a great off-the-ball/help defender, but on the ball he's average at best. On at least one play Manu was playing about seven feet off McGrady, like his first priority was to try to help on somebody else.
McGrady is a special case that no one can stop, even Bowen. As I recall, McGrady lit Bowen up too, even when Bowen was inside his jersey on some plays. I mean his shooting can be unreal sometimes.

However, I don't think Manu is as bad a defender as you seem to think. I'm not talking about one play or even whether he is as good as Bowen, but who else do we have that can replace Bowen in that slot on a regular basis?

Guess we have a difference of opinion.

[timvp]

but who else do we have that can replace Bowen in that slot on a regular basis?

You have discovered flaw #2342B in the team's roster.

[timvp]

Ya, the +/- explains everything....
:drunk

Barry at -14 didn't exactly help your cause . . .

[ShoogarBear]

The difference is that Bowen was inside his jersey. Once again, stats don't tell you how difficult the shot was or how hard he had to work for it.

I didn't say Manu was a bad defender. I just said he's nowhere close to Bowen's class. If you think he is, then yeah, we do have a difference of opinion.

[wildbill2u]

The difference is that Bowen was inside his jersey. Once again, stats don't tell you how difficult the shot was or how hard he had to work for it.

I didn't say Manu was a bad defender. I just said he's nowhere close to Bowen's class. If you think he is, then yeah, we do have a difference of opinion.
Actually you did imply that he's a bad defender--'average at best' one on one seems like a knock on Manu that isn't justified. When he gets determined, he's like a terrier with a rat.

[doldrums]

I'm usually quick to criticize a thead, but this thread has not only been interesting to read but also very informative.

[aaronstampler]

Okay, it's pretty simple.

In each half Manu plays the first six minutes, then sits for four, then plays another six, then sits for four, and then plays the final four. That totals 16 minutes, or 32 for the game.

Tony plays the whole 1st quarter (like he did last year), sits for seven, then plays the last five. 17 minutes, or 34 for the game.

Tim plays the first ten minutes, sits for five, plays for seven, then sits the final two to protect him from foul trouble. If need be he plays the final two in the second half as well. Anyway it'll be either 34 or 36 minutes, depending.

With this scenario, we'd only have six minutes out of 24 where two of them aren't on the floor, the first three of the second quarter (just Manu) and minutes 16-19 (just Tim). We'd never leave Tony by himself, which I think is critical here.

I think what's hurting us is we're taking Tony out too early these days. Let him go back to playing the whole 1st like he used to. If the solo Manu lineup struggles in the 2nd quarter it'll be for only three minutes instead of the five or six it'd been.

[ShoogarBear]

Actually you did imply that he's a bad defender--'average at best' one on one seems like a knock on Manu that isn't justified. When he gets determined, he's like a terrier with a rat.:rollin


Manu is a great off-the-ball/help defender, but on the ball he's average at best.
Maybe you can remind me of the last good offensive player Manu shut down.

Got durn unless you say Manu is the greatest of all time at everything, people get prickly.

[anonymous coward]

Barry at -14 didn't exactly help your cause . . .

:rolleyes

tmac's -6 (worst on the rockets), doent help your case too

[wildbill2u]

:rollin


Maybe you can remind me of the last good offensive player Manu shut down.

Got durn unless you say Manu is the greatest of all time at everything, people get prickly.
I never said he could lock down a great offensive player. Not many can when they're on--including Bruce as he showed the other night.

However, some times a third party's opinion can carry some weight.

Sportswriter John Hollister picks Manu as his All-star Guard again and here is his final reasoning for choosing him among all the other guards in the West:

"Capping it off, he is also easily the best defensive player in the group, something for which he doesn't get nearly enough credit." :clap

Now you go find some national sportswriter that says Manu doesn't play good defense. :reading

[platnumdelgado]

Rockets!!!

[johnpaulwall21]

who is this assclown talkin bout the rockets, hes a nobody so i will leave it at that :wakeup

[platnumdelgado]

aight johnpaulwall1, dont be mad that dem Rockets whoop da ass last night in they're own building without our star...............Yall are done...............Sad!

[ChumpDumper]

Stay in school.

[johnpaulwall21]

who?

[ChumpDumper]

If you have to ask, both of you.

[johnpaulwall21]

still talkin even though i havent said shit about u, but whatever man

[ShoogarBear]

I never said he could lock down a great offensive player. Not many can when they're on--including Bruce as he showed the other night.

However, some times a third party's opinion can carry some weight.

Sportswriter John Hollister picks Manu as his All-star Guard again and here is his final reasoning for choosing him among all the other guards in the West:

"Capping it off, he is also easily the best defensive player in the group, something for which he doesn't get nearly enough credit." :clap

Now you go find some national sportswriter that says Manu doesn't play good defense. :readinga) Hollinger's a primary statistician who's mediocre writings when he strays from his numbers have already been ripped on this board before, so you'd do better to find a more respected opinion. BUT

b) if you want to quote him, then you would be better served to actually read what he said. When he said "the best defensive player in the group", he specifically named the group as "Tony Parker, Seattle's Ray Allen, the Hornets' Chris Paul, Denver's Allen Iverson, Houston's Tracy McGrady, Sacramento's Kevin Martin, and Golden State's Baron Davis". Hardly an all-defense squad.

Finally, Manu rarely guards anyone of real consequence for any lengthy duration of time.