A Slight Glitch in the 2008 Master Plan

[ShoogarBear]

It seems a lot of teams will have pretty significant cap space then.

In fact, the Spurs are only middle of the pack in terms of current projections, based on the HoopsHype numbers.

SOme of these will no doubt be altered by upcoming free agent and draft signings, but it looks like 2008 FA's will be guaranteed some very attractive options.

Teams and 2008-2009 Obligations:
New York $86.2 (although it drops to $41.2 the next year)
Denver $74.6 :wow
Phoenix $71.4 :wow #2 (these guys better plan on winning now)
Cleveland $62.3 another :wow, not much room for adding pieces
Indiana $60.3
Minnesota $58.8 (assuming KG exercises player option)
Seattle $57.1
Golden State $55.5
Houston $54.3
Sacramento $53.6
Dallas $52.4
Utah $50.1
LA Clippers $49.5
LA Lakers $45.4
Washington $44.6
San Antonio $44.6
Miami $43.7
New Orleans $43.6
Portland $42.7
Memphis $41.2
New Jersey $40.7
Detroit $39.8
Boston $39.1
Toronto $39.1
Philadelphia $32.2
Milwaukee $31.9
Chicago $26.2
Atlanta $24.8
Orlando $18.4 (pretty sweet. Wanna get big bucks to play with Dwight?)
Charlotte $0.0 (Peter Holt is green with jealousy.)

[Mr. Body]

Nice work!

I think I near-arbitrarily projected the cap to be around $60 million that year, so anybody above GSW would really be off the market. There's a lot of signing to do between now and then, of course, so these figures won't all be so low.

[bdictjames]

There is no 2008 Master Plan. Every year is our year, just as long the Spurs work hard for it.

[z0sa]

difference will be, people want to play beside Tim, even a 31 or 32 year old Tim.

[ShoogarBear]

difference will be, people want to play beside Tim, even a 31 or 32 year old Tim.Where have I heard that before?

[K-State Spur]

I'm not the world's biggest proponent of the 2008 plan, but only a few of those teams will still have any cap space come that offseason.

For example, Chicago only has a little committed to that year right now, but unless they want to gut their team, their payroll is going to skyrocket over the next 2 years as their rookie contracts start expiring.

[Zarko]

difference will be, people want to play beside Tim, even a 31 or 32 year old Tim.

not to mention a still spry Manu and a in his prime TP. Players will see that the important pieces are already in place and they can only bolster the lineup. That said, it is a long time till 2008.

[Big P]

Alot of these teams projected salaries are going to be going up, way up. Teams like Boston, Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago, Portland etc. are going to be signing big names like, Gerald Green & Al Jefferson (Bos), Marvin Williams, Josh Smith & Josh Childress (Atl), Chris Paul (NO), Luol Deng & Ben Gordon (Chi), Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack & Travis Outlaw (Por). So these numbers will change signifigantly. The Spurs will probably have used their MLE, once or twice, but should still be far enough under the cap to make a run at a very nice player(s)

[Mr. Body]

There actually is a 2008 Plan. Whether it's called that in the FO, that I doubt.

But if great big men on crappy/permanently mediocre teams like Kevin Garnett and Elton Brand are available all in the same summer and it doesn't create a major headache to create the space for them, by God you have to do it.

That's one reason I wasn't totally thrilled with Maggette. His player option year - which he would have taken - would have killed the entire plan flat, without his guarantee of actually even playing well for the team.

[AFBlue]

These following teams have young players that will most likely be granted extensions, thus taking away some of that anticipated cap space:

Dallas $52.4 - Devin Harris?
Miami $43.7 - Dorrell Wright?
Portland $42.7 - Jack, Webster?
Detroit $39.8 - Billups?
Boston $39.1 - West, Jefferson?
Milwaukee $31.9 - Villanueva, Bogut?
Chicago $26.2 - Deng, Gordon?
Atlanta $24.8 - Smith, Childress?
Orlando $18.4 - Howard, Nelson?
Charlotte $0.0 - Felton, Okafor?

I know not all of those players will be receiving extensions and that alot can change in 1 1/2 years, but that's an idea of some of the young players that will have to be taken into consideration when signings are made (much like the Tony Parker issue when the Spurs went after J-Kidd)...

[baseline bum]

difference will be, people want to play beside Tim, even a 31 or 32 year old Tim.

It didn't work with a 26 year-old Tim, why would it be different when he's 32?

[Mr. Body]

You can strike most of those teams off the list, anyway, since Garnett/Brand won't go from semi-losing situations to go to worse ones. Also, yes, I think Dallas will spend more money, Portland will have to go over (and budget for Roy, Aldridge in the future), and Chicago will have to pay those players, too.

[AFBlue]

magic can really go nuts. won't dwight have the max contract by then?
lil' man jameer will get good money too.

I think Howard can negotiate an extension beginning this summer.....

[Mr. Body]

There's a whole summer of free agents this summer who will take up space, as well, including a bunch of SFs like Vince Carter. If the Spurs spend the MLE, too, they'll be losing space.

[Kori Ellis]

There's a whole summer of free agents this summer who will take up space, as well, including a bunch of SFs like Vince Carter. If the Spurs spend the MLE, too, they'll be losing space.

Yeah I was thinking that the other day. The Spurs are going to have to spend the MLE this summer, I think, in order to improve for next season. But if they do that, then you are right - that cuts into the 2008 cap space.

[MajorMike]

What would ya'll think about Tony Allen? He's a great defender (played for Sutton) and scorer from the SG spot. Tony had a string of 14 games right up until he hurt his knee that he scored in double digits; only 3 of those games were under 16 and 7 of them were over 20 to include a 30 pt game where he was 11-13/2-2/2-2/8 rb/3 as/3 st/1 bl/2 to. Those were games played beside Pierce, Cz, West, Telfair, Gomes and Jefferson.

He only makes 1 mil this and 1.8 next. The Celts have a 20 year old Gerald Green developing, not to mention Wally Cz under contract until '09. They have 3 SG and 4 PG under contract to include development.

I understand he is no Manu, but look at his stats compared to Manu:

Manu
PPG 16.9
RPG 4.4
APG 3.4
SPG 1.56
BPG .37
FG% .468
FT% .861
3P% .402
MPG 27.8

TA
PPG 11.5
RPG 3.8
APG 1.7
SPG 1.48
BPG .36
FG% .514
FT% .784
3P% .242
MPG 24.4

[AFBlue]

Yeah I was thinking that the other day. The Spurs are going to have to spend the MLE this summer, I think, in order to improve for next season. But if they do that, then you are right - that cuts into the 2008 cap space.

Unless they can sign someone to a two-year deal, with the second year being team option...

Not sure how likely that is, but it could happen...

[Extra Stout]

difference will be, people want to play beside Tim, even a 31 or 32 year old Tim.
You're right, Dwight Howard will be thrilled when Tim opts out of his deal and signs with Orlando in order to vie for his fourth ring.

[AFBlue]

About Tony Allen, I love how he plays the game with intensity and aggressiveness. He's great when slashing to the basket and drawing contact. But, I would have concerns about bringing him on...

1. He's undersized for a SG and, unlike D Wade, isn't versatile enough to handle the point and distribute to others...he's a scorer.

2. He'll have to recover well from the knee surgeries and even then it would be tough to say that he can have all of his athleticism back. That hurts his stock because he relies on the first step and athleticism to create on offense.

I like the kid, but I don't know how much value he has coming off the knee surgery...

[Supergirl]

It's amazing to me that Chicago and Detroit are still so far under the cap, considering how good they are already.

[Kori Ellis]

It's amazing to me that Chicago and Detroit are still so far under the cap, considering how good they are already.

Well they aren't really under the cap now. They will just be under the cap in the summer of 2008 because of a lot of contracts coming off the books, just like the Spurs.

[Bruno]

The 08 plan is quite BS.
Spurs will have at best $12M in capspace (if they trade all theri first round picks, Mahinmi and renounce to all their FAs) with only 3 players.

I don't see how you can fill a roster with only $12M when you have to get 7 good players to have a 10 men rotation.

Don't forget too that Spurs ahve offered a 4 years contract to Pryzbilla this summer. I think more that the 08 plan was an excuse given to Elson and Butler agents because Spurs didn't want to give them a long term contract.

[AFBlue]

It's amazing to me that Chicago and Detroit are still so far under the cap, considering how good they are already.

Chicago did well to get rid of their Baby Bulls without taking on alot of future cap space and getting legit prospects/draft picks in return. Imagine now with Crawford out in NY how the Knicks will tumble. Chicago still has the right to swap firsts w/ the Knicks in what will likely be the deepest draft in years. That's some good GMing. They might have overpaid for Wallace, but overall, the Bulls have made some great decisions....they should be in contention for several years...

Detriot is less impressive. Their big gem came in getting Billups while he was vastly underrated. They got one championship out of that group, but they had a real shot to make their team relevant for a decade if they handled the 2003 draft better. Taking Milicic was bad, but trading him away for Orlando's draft pick this year was worse. They could've had Melo, now they get? I still like the moves they've made, but the Milicic thing was a HUGE misstep.

[Supergirl]

Well they aren't really under the cap now. They will just be under the cap in the summer of 2008 because of a lot of contracts coming off the books, just like the Spurs.

Ahhh. Does Chicago still have a bunch of people signed under rookie contracts, too? Nocioni, Deng, and Gordon all come to mind. Are those guys locked up for them yet?

Detroit's gonna have to resign Chauncey pretty soon, too, and if they don't make a good shot at winning it all this year, he may walk.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah I was thinking that the other day. The Spurs are going to have to spend the MLE this summer, I think, in order to improve for next season. But if they do that, then you are right - that cuts into the 2008 cap space.

Even with that, the Spurs may still have upwards of $10-12 million to fill out the roster. Not an entirely upsetting scenario. It seems a lot depends on Duncan's willingness to reduce his contract. Would he reduce it knowing Mr. Brand or Mr. Garnett may come? I don't think it works if they want the max, but if they want $10 million and there's enough to run at other players for the roster, it may work.

[ShoogarBear]

People have made good points that these numbers don't take into account some young players that teams will want to resign. I probably should have done more annotation about which of those players will not be under contract.

Still, looking at Orlando, even if they decide to resign Darko and Jameer, and extend Howard, they'll probably have about $20 million to play with, assuming they don't decide to pick up somebody before then.

[AFBlue]

The 08 plan is quite BS.
Spurs will have at best $12M in capspace (if they trade all theri first round picks, Mahinmi and renounce to all their FAs) with only 3 players.

I don't see how you can fill a roster with only $12M when you have to get 7 good players to have a 10 men rotation.

Don't forget too that Spurs ahve offered a 4 years contract to Pryzbilla this summer. I think more that the 08 plan was an excuse given to Elson and Butler agents because Spurs didn't want to give them a long term contract.

It's not that they wouldn't offer contracts to certain players, just that they're hesitant to offer too much money for too long. Mohammad went to Detriot because the Spurs wouldn't give him a fifth year.

I bet if a guy like Gerald Wallace became available the Spurs would be willing to give him a long-term deal, and they were willing to at least inquire about Corey Maggette. So I don't think it's a "hard and fast" rule, but I think the Spurs FO is cost-concious about longer term deals...

[TDMVPDPOY]

08? fuck that

09 is when tims contract goes of the books then 2010, tp will get another contract

[TDMVPDPOY]

People have made good points that these numbers don't take into account some young players that teams will want to resign. I probably should have done more annotation about which of those players will not be under contract.

Still, looking at Orlando, even if they decide to resign Darko and Jameer, and extend Howard, they'll probably have about $20 million to play with, assuming they don't decide to pick up somebody before then.

they still got ariza to resign....


seriously arent they lookin for a new built arena?

[AFBlue]

People have made good points that these numbers don't take into account some young players that teams will want to resign. I probably should have done more annotation about which of those players will not be under contract.

Still, looking at Orlando, even if they decide to resign Darko and Jameer, and extend Howard, they'll probably have about $20 million to play with, assuming they don't decide to pick up somebody before then.

Don't beat yourself up, you did a good synopsis of the 2008 outlook for teams. And you're right....Orlando looks dangerous for the future.

[Bruno]

Even with that, the Spurs may still have upwards of $10-12 million to fill out the roster.

If Spurs spend the MLE next summer on a p ayer with a multi year contract they won't have more than $7M in capspace for the 08 summer.

[AFBlue]

08? fuck that

09 is when tims contract goes of the books then 2010, tp will get another contract

Don't think this is right...can anyone get the actuals?

Top of my head...

2010 for Tim
2011 for Manu
2012 for Tony

[mountainballer]

however I tried to watch at it, I can't see the 2008 plan.
how should this work?
a 2010 plan makes sense. but if the so called 2008 plan materializes (signing a FA to a max contract), the 2010 plan would no longer work as well.
if the Spurs want in fact to work on this 2008 thing, it means that they can't sign any player to a longer than 1 years contract (or trade only for players with expiring contracts this summer), because their room is very limited with Tim, Tony and Manu on the books. a team still needs 13 players. adding another star, but filling the roster with only min. players won't work IMO.
what about all the 2007 draft picks? are Spurs further more stockpiling Euro picks? (currently no other team in the NBA has so many unsigned picks like the Spurs own. will they increase the number to 9?)
what about Scola?
ok, they could sign him to the mentioned 3 years/10 million contract and still have enough cap space 2008, but it won't work, if they spend the whole MLE this summer on a helpfull player. maybe Gerald Wallace. many doubt that he would sign for MLE, but what if he did? he won't get a max offer. what if he signed the 5 years/30 million contract? Spurs would be crazy to refuse this, if it was possible.

overall I hope that there isn't a 2008 plan. because if it didn't work out as planned (by signing a premium player, something that usually failed when Spurs tried to do so), Spurs would have hurt the other options. (adding the right role players around the 3).
Spurs should try to get a good supporting cast for the next 3 years. (by using the MLE for FAs, trading for players etc.)

2010, when Tim and Manu's contract expire, then there will be significant cap space and then the Spurs will know, if Tim wants to add some more years, if he has something left and if he takes a paycut, to make a big signing possible. same with Manu.
2010 there will be some premium players on the market!!!!!!
not an aging KG. (not that I didn't take him, if possible)
still young franchise players like Lebron, Wade (if he opts out), Bosh (if he opts out), Amare and some more who's names we don't know yet (because they are to young or just in the draft).

2010 the Spurs could offer: a max contract, an all star player in his prime in Tony, two more stars, who might be aging but still good in Manu (33) and Tim (34) AND (most important) a good supporting cast (maybe players in the Scola, G. Wallace category). that might bring a new franchise player to SA!

[ShoogarBear]

Ahhh. Does Chicago still have a bunch of people signed under rookie contracts, too? Nocioni, Deng, and Gordon all come to mind. Are those guys locked up for them yet?

Detroit's gonna have to resign Chauncey pretty soon, too, and if they don't make a good shot at winning it all this year, he may walk.Chicago's numbers don't include:
-Ben Gordon (eligible for $6.4 qualifying)
-Ty Thomas ($3.7 team option)
-Luol Deng ($4.5 qualifying)
-Nocioi (contract expires this year)

So, yeah, they're more likely to be in the $50 range.

Chauncey and Delfino are the only Pistons who will be in their primes who will not be under contract. Wallace, Hamilton, Prince, and Nazr (who presumably won't be there) are included in their figures.

[Mr. Body]

If Spurs spend the MLE next summer on a p ayer with a multi year contract they won't have more than $7M in capspace for the 08 summer.

Depends on the cap figure, doesn't it? As I said above, I'd peg it somewhere at $60mil. If it's that much, and they spend the MLE, they should have about $10 million.

[Marklar MM]

Detriot is less impressive. Their big gem came in getting Billups while he was vastly underrated. They got one championship out of that group, but they had a real shot to make their team relevant for a decade if they handled the 2003 draft better. Taking Milicic was bad, but trading him away for Orlando's draft pick this year was worse. They could've had Melo, now they get? I still like the moves they've made, but the Milicic thing was a HUGE misstep.


Yup we could have had Melo. Today, we would only have one of them...Melo or Tayshaun.

[Bruno]

Depends on the cap figure, doesn't it? As I said above, I'd peg it somewhere at $60mil. If it's that much, and they spend the MLE, they should have about $10 million.

1) $60M is a lot. When people project the future Salary cap they use 3 scenarios :
pesimistic : 1% raise/year => salary cap in 08 $54M
realistic : 3% raise/ year => salary cap in 08 $56M
optimistic 5% raise/year => salary cap in 08 $58M

2) Spurs payroll against the cap will $46M with only Parker/Manu/Duncan under cotnract. You shouldn't forget that you should fill the roster with minimum salary ($442K in 08) to reach 12 players when you calculate the capspace.

[AFBlue]

If the Spurs' entire MLE is spent on a multi-year contract for one guy...that guy better damn well be enough of a contributor to negate the Spurs' need for Kevin Garnett. As much as I would like the Spurs to get immediate contributors with the MLE this Summer, it's very likely that they will split the MLE between two players like this past year. Assuming one of the two players is a veteran providing short-term help, I could see a very likely scenario where a one-year deal is offered with an option for the second year.

[AFBlue]

Yup we could have had Melo. Today, we would only have one of them...Melo or Tayshaun.

But whoever you decided to get rid of would have certainly garnered more than a mid-first round pick right? Point is, the Darko decisions (both in drafting and in trading) weren't the best courses of action for the franchise and hurt their potential to be long-term contenders....

[ShoogarBear]

One other thing about the 2008 Master Plan.

It only works if Bruce Bowen retires after next year's team option.

If Bruce decides he wants to continue playing, I'm 95% sure the Spurs offer him a contract, after what he's done to help them financially.

[AFBlue]

One other thing about the 2008 Master Plan.

It only works if Bruce Bowen retires after next year's team option.

If Bruce decides he wants to continue playing, I'm 95% sure the Spurs offer him a contract, after what he's done to help them financially.

But how big of a contract? I'm thinking as a 38yr old he'll probably only ask for the vet min, which is not a big contract at all. It also depends on his importance to the team at that point...if the Spurs have found someone to take the starting 3 spot (lets hope to almighty God the Spurs aren't relying on a 38yr old defensive specialist in '08), then he might retire on his own or be willing to accept a very modest contract.

[Kori Ellis]

One other thing about the 2008 Master Plan.

It only works if Bruce Bowen retires after next year's team option.

If Bruce decides he wants to continue playing, I'm 95% sure the Spurs offer him a contract, after what he's done to help them financially.

I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.

Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?

[Mr. Body]

1) $60M is a lot. When people project the future Salary cap they use 3 scenarios :
pesimistic : 1% raise/year => salary cap in 08 $54M
realistic : 3% raise/ year => salary cap in 08 $56M
optimistic 5% raise/year => salary cap in 08 $58M

2) Spurs payroll against the cap will $46M with only Parker/Manu/Duncan under cotnract. You shouldn't forget that you should fill the roster with minimum salary ($442K in 08) to reach 12 players when you calculate the capspace.

They have to reckon the cap for 07-08 this summer, then reckon the cap again for 08-09, right? It's the 08-09 figure that matters here, unless that's what you're showing above. I don't think that's what you have. So it should be (figure * 3%) * 3%. I may be wrong.

[Mr. Body]

I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.

Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?

I think they'll move Beno this summer. I also expect Horry to retire. Finley and Oberto will not leave money on the table. Oh, and I expect the Spurs to dump Butler this summer, too, but they may not.

I also kind of think Bowen will opt out this summer and take something like that 2 year contract for fewer dollars. I may have visions, but I do think the wheels of a great apparatus are turning on this one. I think the Spurs have very specific ideas of what they plan on doing with the 2008 summer. Whether Duncan is in on it, expecting to negotiate down his contract, I don't know.

[Supergirl]

I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.

Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?

I think Finley will re-sign. He seems to have really settled in with the Spurs ethos and likes Tim a lot, likes his role here. I think he also knows his best chance at a title is here.

I think Beno and Oberto are probably both gone, the former more than the latter.

A question - if Chicago is already dangling Nocioni as trade bait, could the Spurs get him here next year, since he's up for a new contract? He would be a SWEET long 3 for the Spurs and he's excellent both defensively and offensively, AND he and Manu are already tight as Argentine teammates.

[Bruno]

They have to reckon the cap for 07-08 this summer, then reckon the cap again for 08-09, right? It's the 08-09 figure that matters here, unless that's what you're showing above. I don't think that's what you have. So it should be (figure * 3%) * 3%. I may be wrong.

:wtf
The salary cap is $53.135M this year so $54.729M in 07-08 and $56.371M in 08-09.

[AFBlue]

I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.

Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?

Tough to say on Horry, though I think he ends up hanging them up.

If Finley plays well down the stretch and feels like he can get one last deal (possibly w/ hometown Chi Bulls) I think he'll do it. But my gut and his current play says he'll stick with the money and the guaranteed job.

I think Oberto will opt out if it's clear that he's not going to be in the rotation for the 07-08 season.

The Spurs shouldn't move Beno until they have a backup plan for his successor and a short-term plan for an immediate contributor... (a.k.a. Drafting PG in second round and signing Chucky Atkins/Brevin Knight)

[Mr. Body]

:wtf
The salary cap is $53.135M this year so $54.729M in 07-08 and $56.371M in 08-09.

:wtf
Using your conservative "pessimistic" figure of 1%. Why do you keep bending around this? It is far more likely to be 3% and just as likely to be 5%. Using your realistic figure, the cap number comes very close to $60M.

[Marklar MM]

But whoever you decided to get rid of would have certainly garnered more than a mid-first round pick right? Point is, the Darko decisions (both in drafting and in trading) weren't the best courses of action for the franchise and hurt their potential to be long-term contenders....

At the time, Detroit needed a big man that could play defense and score. Darko was that man. Darko was considered a top 3 pick that year, along with Lebron and Melo. Detroit already had Prince, so they felt Melo wasn't a necessity. Here is a little fact of knowledge about Melo...he canceled the Pistons draft workout. Why draft a guy who didn't want to work out for you? Joe D. didn't know that he would be getting Rasheed later in the year for table scraps.

Anyways, we got another first round pick out of it all, so we will see how it goes. With the Magic tanking like they are, it likely we could very well have a top 15 pick in a stockpiled draft. We also have our first rounder, so we can always try and trade up.

[Bruno]

I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.

Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?

AFAIK, Bruce can't opt out this summer it's up to Spurs to keep him or waive him.

Another think is that Horry last year isn't fully guaranteed (like Danny Ferry) : I really think that Spurs won't keep him to save money and will sign Bonner as replacement.

[Bruno]

:wtf
Using your conservative "pessimistic" figure of 1%. Why do you keep bending around this? It is far more likely to be 3% and just as likely to be 5%. Using your realistic figure, the cap number comes very close to $60M.

:wtf
The computation I've made is with the 3% figure.
3% of $53M isn't $3M it's $1.6M.

[Kori Ellis]

:wtf
The computation I've made is with the 3% figure.
3% of $53M isn't $3M it's $1.6M.

:lol I don't know why no one is understanding that you are using the 3% figure.

[Kori Ellis]

AFAIK, Bruce can't opt out this summer it's up to Spurs to keep him or waive him.

Another think is that Horry last year isn't fully guaranteed (like Danny Ferry) : I really think that Spurs won't keep him to save money and will sign Bonner as replacement.

Well they wouldn't waive him. They can choose not to pick up his option and then negotiate a new contract, right? That is what I'm saying I think will happen. I shouldn't have said he would opt out. Moreso, they would opt out.

[Mr. Body]

Ah, my math. The last few years the cap has jumped higher than that, though, right? I forget where I found it, but it's jumped far more than $1.some a year.

[Kori Ellis]

Ah, my math. The last few years the cap has jumped higher than that, though, right? I forget where I found it, but it's jumped far more than $1.some a year.


2004-05 $43.87 million
2005-06 $49.5 million
2006-07 $53.135 million

[Mr. Body]

So, to reverse the discussion a little. Why the absurdly conservative estimates by Bruno? The cap has leapt forward in recent years.

[AFBlue]

Another think is that Horry last year isn't fully guaranteed (like Danny Ferry) : I really think that Spurs won't keep him to save money and will sign Bonner as replacement.

Agreed on this. Either Horry retires or he goes to play for another contender as their not-so-secret playoff weapon.

[ShoogarBear]

2004-05 $43.87 million
2005-06 $49.5 million = +12.8%
2006-07 $53.135 million = +7.3%

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

difference will be, people want to play beside Tim, even a 31 or 32 year old Tim.

Sincerely,

Jermaine O'Neal
Jason Kidd
Chris Webber
Stephen Jackson
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Some people never learn...

[Bruno]

Well they wouldn't waive him. They can choose not to pick up his option and then negotiate a new contract, right? That is what I'm saying I think will happen. I shouldn't have said he would opt out. Moreso, they would opt out.

Either Spurs keep him and paid $4,125,000 or they waive him and give him $2M.

Bowne last year isn't a team option or palyer option year : it's a year that isn't fully guaranteed. They can't opt out, they had to waived him.
Can they waive him and re-sign him later ?
Higly unlikely because they will have to gamble that he clears waivers and wait 20 days before re-signing him.

however, Spurs can extend his contract this summer.

[Supergirl]

At the time, Detroit needed a big man that could play defense and score. Darko was that man. Darko was considered a top 3 pick that year, along with Lebron and Melo. Detroit already had Prince, so they felt Melo wasn't a necessity. Here is a little fact of knowledge about Melo...he canceled the Pistons draft workout. Why draft a guy who didn't want to work out for you? Joe D. didn't know that he would be getting Rasheed later in the year for table scraps.

Anyways, we got another first round pick out of it all, so we will see how it goes. With the Magic tanking like they are, it likely we could very well have a top 15 pick in a stockpiled draft. We also have our first rounder, so we can always try and trade up.

How could Dumars have possibly known he would get Sheed? No one could have seen that one coming - it was borne out of a slow deterioration of the situation in Portland and a need to try and bring back some Portland fans. It was a steal, maybe one of the biggest ones ever, but Dumars could not possibly have known about it in advance.

I didn't know Carmelo cancelled a workout with the Pistons. Interesting.

[Marklar MM]

How could Dumars have possibly known he would get Sheed? No one could have seen that one coming - it was borne out of a slow deterioration of the situation in Portland and a need to try and bring back some Portland fans. It was a steal, maybe one of the biggest ones ever, but Dumars could not possibly have known about it in advance.

I didn't know Carmelo cancelled a workout with the Pistons. Interesting.


He heard that Detroit liked Darko's workout, so he just cancelled his. And I said that about Sheed...Joe D. didn't know he would be getting the big man that could defend and score, so he picked Darko.

[Bruno]

2004-05 $43.87 million
2005-06 $49.5 million = +12.8%
2006-07 $53.135 million = +7.3%

It's a little more complicate than that.
Rules have changed between these years because of the new CBA.
next summer raise will be lower.

[Marklar MM]

A clip from a espn article.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/d03/story?id=1566626

-- The Detroit Pistons are set to take 7-foot-1 Darko Milicic with the second pick in the NBA draft.

Carmelo Anthony, the other player most considered in the running to follow Cleveland's selection of LeBron James in the draft order, canceled his scheduled workout with the Pistons.

Joe Dumars, Detroit's president of basketball operations, was asked if Anthony's cancellation on Tuesday provided a clear indication that the Pistons would take Milicic.

"Yes,'' Dumars told The Associated Press on Wednesday night.

[Kori Ellis]

Either Spurs keep him and paid $4,125,000 or they waive him and give him $2M.

Bowne last year isn't a team option or palyer option year : it's a year that isn't fully guaranteed. They can't opt out, they had to waived him.
Can they waive him and re-sign him later ?
Higly unlikely because they will have to gamble that he clears waivers and wait 20 days before re-signing him.

however, Spurs can extend his contract this summer.


Hmm... I asked around and I understood it as a team option year.

And if they chose not to pick up the team option, then they would have to pay him $2M.

I understand that Horry's situation next year is how you are outlining Bowen's. But maybe you are right.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.

Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?

Not sure on the Bowen thing.

I feel pretty confident that Horry will retire this summer. Unfortunately, I see both Finley and Oberto picking up their options :vomit:

Finley because he feels at home and feels he still has something left to prove, and Oberto because he knows this will be the last contract he gets in the NBA.

I don't expect Beno to be on our roster at the start of the season next year.

In a perfect world, Acie Law falls to the Spurs and RC and Pop actually nut up and draft an American :tu

[Kori Ellis]

It's a little more complicate than that.
Rules have changed between these years because of the new CBA.
next summer raise will be lower.

I think you are right. Most people aren't expecting the salary cap to be over $55M for next year. But who knows.

[Bruno]

Hmm... I asked around and I understood it as a team option year.

And if they chose not to pick up the team option, then they would have to pay him $2M.

I understand that Horry's situation next year is how you are outlining Bowen's. But maybe you are right.

Or I can be wrong too : it can a team option as you said. Both cases are possible.

Anyway, I don't see what can be the edge of signing a new contract this summer over a simple contract extension for Bowen or Spurs.

espn list Bowen as a player with a limited salary protection for next year, not very precise : http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2654216

[Spurs Brazil]

We need to sign Nocioni in the offseason

[MajorMike]

About Tony Allen, I love how he plays the game with intensity and aggressiveness. He's great when slashing to the basket and drawing contact. But, I would have concerns about bringing him on...

1. He's undersized for a SG and, unlike D Wade, isn't versatile enough to handle the point and distribute to others...he's a scorer.

2. He'll have to recover well from the knee surgeries and even then it would be tough to say that he can have all of his athleticism back. That hurts his stock because he relies on the first step and athleticism to create on offense.

I like the kid, but I don't know how much value he has coming off the knee surgery...

Which is exactly why I think the Celts will dump him.

[phxspurfan]

They could've had Melo, now they get? I still like the moves they've made, but the Milicic thing was a HUGE misstep.


You can't blame them for this mistake for the following reasons:

1. They didn't need any help/additions to their already strong rotation when they had that pick, so they chose a long term prospect.

2. Darko was predicted to be quite good. Almost good enough to usurp lebron for the first spot in some columns I read.

3. Larry Brown. I'm sure he voiced his opinion on the draft pick and went with a guy he could use in practice and sit at the end of his bench behind the vets for at least a year.

4. Besides Melo, not a lot of people knew how good Wade would be either. Who knew? The guy is easily the most successful of the three right now. Not to mention CP3. MJ didn't go in the top 2 when he was drafted, either...

[phxspurfan]

People have made good points that these numbers don't take into account some young players that teams will want to resign. I probably should have done more annotation about which of those players will not be under contract.

Still, looking at Orlando, even if they decide to resign Darko and Jameer, and extend Howard, they'll probably have about $20 million to play with, assuming they don't decide to pick up somebody before then.


Orlando is definitely re-signing both Darko and Jameer. Book it.

[Peter]

Orlando has a better '08 plan.

[Big P]

Orlando has a better '08 plan.


And we have 3 championships.

[Peter]

Yeah, those were fun. Now on to 2008.

[Tigole Bitties]

Shaun Livingston can be had for pennies on the dollar

[timvp]

The 08 plan is quite BS.
Spurs will have at best $12M in capspace (if they trade all theri first round picks, Mahinmi and renounce to all their FAs) with only 3 players.

I don't see how you can fill a roster with only $12M when you have to get 7 good players to have a 10 men rotation.

Exactly. The 2008 Master Plan is a horribly stupid idea. Basketball wise, it makes zero sense. The only sense it makes at all would be if Peter Holt is going to sell the team sometime in the next couple years and he wants the franchise value to be at its highest. That's the only way it makes sense.

For the Spurs to open $10-12M in capspace, they'd have to do the following:

Trade Mahinmi, waive Butler, never sign Scola, never sign Javtokas, never sign Sanikidze, don't re-sign Bonner, don't re-sign Ely, don't re-sign Vaughn, renounce Elson, renounce Oberto, renounce Finley, renounce Barry, renounce White, renounce Bowen, renounce Udrih and trade away all draft picks this summer (one first rounder and two or three second rounders). And then this upcoming summer, the Spurs couldn't sign anyone to more than a one-year contract.

If they do all that, then they'll have Duncan, Parker and Ginobili plus $10-12M to play with to fill 13 roster spots. The Spurs won't be able to offer maximum money. What they'll basically have is two MLE's to work with instead of one. So for an extra $4-6M, the Spurs would have to basically blow up everything and not try to improve the team for two years. How in the name of all that is holy does that make sense? :lol

What makes it an even worse idea is the fact that the new CBA makes it almost impossible to sign a player coming off of a rookie deal. Even second round draft picks are protected more than ever before.

If someone like Emeka Okafor or Dwight Howard were available and this gave the Spurs a chance, then I can see reason for the 2008 plan. But the Spurs don't have the money to offer a max contract AND the teams have the ability to match any contract the Spurs offer.

The last couple times the Spurs opened up cap room to use in a summer, it was still pretty dumb and always blew up in their face ... but at least it made a little sense. You could steal a second round draft pick and there weren't as many restrictions on signing other players. Nowadays, unless you are willing to massively overpay for a player coming off a rookie contract (see: Jeffries, Jared), you just can't get anything done.

This front office loves the supposed "roster flexibility" but now it has just gotten to the point of stupidity. The window won't be open forever. Getting two MLE players in 2008 while having to fill the other 10 spots on the roster with players making the league minimum makes zero sense.

A much better idea would be to *gasp* spend the money to keep the decent players on this team and go out and use the MLE, LLE and draft picks on players that can help. Go out and get a swingman with a pulse, bring in some young pieces and build the team with the number one objective of winning now and down the line.

[Bruno]

My problem with the 08 plan is that I don't see at all how Spurs can have a good team in 08-09 by going under the cap during the 08 summer and signing FAs.

If someone has at least a semi realistic scenario that do that, I will be curious to see it.

[Supergirl]

This team has what it takes to win it all. Whether they will, we will see. I think there are 4 teams with a legitimate chance to win it all, who have the talent to do so: San Antonio, Dallas, Detroit, Miami. Miami is eliminated for this year due to Wade's injury, and it remains to be seen how much more Shaq has left in him. That's down to 2.

I left off Phoenix because they won't be able to commit to defense in a 7 game series, so they won't ever win it all.

Chicago isn't quite mature yet, and Cleveland doesn't have quite enough talent and isn't mature enough yet.

That means, our best chances to win it all are NOW - this year, and the next 2-3 years while Duncan is still in his prime. We've got Manu and Tony locked up, we can put togther enough role players to complement the three of them just fine.

The real question is, what happens post TD? Manu will likely retire shortly therafter, but we will still have Parker. What kind of talent will be available then, what can we get to rebuild another championship team? Is Parker a franchise player by himself? I think he's capable of being one - if Chris Paul and Allen Iverson are. But he'll need some help. But we won't know what that looks like because it's so far off. I know a high school kid out here who might be PHENOMONAL someday if he gets drafted - but anything could happen between now and then. Let's focus on the here and now.