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05-14-2007, 12:08 PM
Scouts Inc. update: Suns vs. Spurs, Game 4By Jeff Weltman
Scouts Inc.
Archive
• Suns-Spurs series scouting report | Series page
Game 3 opened with a surprising tempo and it appeared Phoenix would be able to carry its Game 2 momentum to San Antonio. But in the third quarter Amare Stoudemire immediately collected his fourth personal foul, San Antonio ratcheted up its defense and Manu Ginobili finally played like Manu Ginobili.
While much is being made of the series becoming overly physical, I don't believe that is the case. Verbal exchanges have been made through the media and Game 3 saw some chippy play (including Bruce Bowen's knee to the groin of Steve Nash, which the league is investigating), true, but the hallmark of a rough-and-tumble series is grabbing, reaching, slapping and shoving on every play -- in other words, when fouls go unwhistled because there are simply too many to officiate. I don't think we're seeing that here.
The war of words has largely heightened the few questionable plays, but they are still the exception rather than the rule. That said, with attention now being drawn to physical play, Phoenix in particular must be careful not to fall into the trap of making this a knock-down, drag-out series. Aside from Raja Bell, the Spurs are a more physical team individually and want to play an uglier, choppier game. If the Suns look to match that style it will take them out of what they are trying to do and attract greater attention from the refs. Phoenix must play its game and know that the officials will look to call this one close out of the gates.
I think this is much ado about nothing, but with Stoudemire airing his thoughts publicly about the Spurs' "dirty" play, all eyes will be on him, and the Suns can ill afford cheap fouls.
Now let's talk hoops.
Much has been made of Tim Duncan's dominance of the Suns against single coverage, with the point being made that the Suns will have to adjust. I beg to differ.
True, Duncan had 33 and 19 and was spectacular in Game 3, but what else would we expect from Duncan? Lost in the shuffle is that Stoudemire had 21 points … in 21 minutes. The shortcoming wasn't in the matchup; it was the fact that Phoenix couldn't keep Stoudemire on the floor. The purpose of defending Duncan with single coverage isn't to shut him down, but to address other concerns:
1. Containing other key San Antonio players, especially Robert Horry and Michael Finley, who are deadly if left alone on the perimeter.
2. Using Kurt Thomas' size to achieve favorable matchups elsewhere on the floor.
3. Keeping Stoudemire out of foul trouble.
In Game 3, Horry and Finley were a combined 3-for-15 from the floor, Thomas finished with eight points and 12 rebounds and Stoudemire played very well. The problem was that even on Francisco Elson and Fabricio Oberto, Stoudemire was still saddled with foul trouble.
Despite Duncan's offensive outburst, I wouldn't look for the Suns to deviate too much from their game plan, but if the strategy is to pay off, Stoudemire must be more cognizant of avoiding fouls. It's a tough balance to attack the rim offensively and protect it defensively while constantly reminding yourself to avoid fouls in the heat of the moment -- especially if you're 24 years old -- but this is Stoudemire's challenge. Stoudemire's fourth foul against Oberto seemed out of place in a playoff environment, but on his fifth foul -- on which he was late to a rotation and had no chance to make the play -- he exercised poor judgment and should have made himself a spectator.
If Stoudemire does end up in foul trouble again in Game 4 and the Spurs are distancing themselves, the Suns may look to mix it up a bit on Duncan, showing and digging in the post. But I don't see them outright doubling him and rushing defenders to get the ball out of his hands very often. Duncan is the best in the league at outlasting the double and waiting to see if it's just a stunt or a true hard double, and making the corresponding play.
Steve Nash missed his first nine shots in Game 3, and while Bell stepped up to knock down four 3-pointers in the first half, Nash must get off to a quicker start if Phoenix is to challenge the Spurs at home. San Antonio shadows the handler and passes him along into help. With Tony Parker or Bruce Bowen riding Nash everywhere, along with shadow help, the Suns must execute their pick-and-roll, and they must keep Stoudemire on the floor to provide Nash an interior target.
Despite the endless hours of coaches breaking down video and agonizing through sleepless nights, I loved what Gregg Popovich said after Game 3: In order to win in the playoffs, your great players need to play great. Ginobili gave the Spurs the offensive punch they had been lacking. Can Ginobili once again play up to Ginobili standards? If so, the Suns will be hard-pressed to contain San Antonio at home, considering the Spurs got little production from Finley and Horry in Game 3.
I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage. Even if they were to lose Game 4, a home win puts the pressure back on the Spurs to close out the series in Game 6 or face the prospect of being closed out themselves in Game 7 in Phoenix. Not odds I'd want to press, but not inconceivable.
Everything we know instructs us to pick the Spurs in Game 4. They are at home, have the Suns talking to themselves and closed with an excellent second half of trademark San Antonio defense in Game 3. But what fun are the playoffs if we don't call for an upset every now and then? We're throwing out the book in Game 4 and playing a hunch.
Ginobili played his best game of the series in Game 3, Nash played his worst and Stoudemire played just 21 minutes. If we were in Vegas we might not take this one to the counter, but we're calling for (gulp) …
PREDICTION: Phoenix wins Game 4
ESPN.com's Scouts Inc. will provide detailed scouting reports for each NBA playoff series and each NBA playoff game.
Scouts Inc. NBA analyst Jeff Weltman was assistant general manager of the Denver Nuggets from 2001 to 2006. From 1988 to 2001, he served the Los Angeles Clippers in various personnel, scouting and administrative roles.
Scouts Inc.
Archive
• Suns-Spurs series scouting report | Series page
Game 3 opened with a surprising tempo and it appeared Phoenix would be able to carry its Game 2 momentum to San Antonio. But in the third quarter Amare Stoudemire immediately collected his fourth personal foul, San Antonio ratcheted up its defense and Manu Ginobili finally played like Manu Ginobili.
While much is being made of the series becoming overly physical, I don't believe that is the case. Verbal exchanges have been made through the media and Game 3 saw some chippy play (including Bruce Bowen's knee to the groin of Steve Nash, which the league is investigating), true, but the hallmark of a rough-and-tumble series is grabbing, reaching, slapping and shoving on every play -- in other words, when fouls go unwhistled because there are simply too many to officiate. I don't think we're seeing that here.
The war of words has largely heightened the few questionable plays, but they are still the exception rather than the rule. That said, with attention now being drawn to physical play, Phoenix in particular must be careful not to fall into the trap of making this a knock-down, drag-out series. Aside from Raja Bell, the Spurs are a more physical team individually and want to play an uglier, choppier game. If the Suns look to match that style it will take them out of what they are trying to do and attract greater attention from the refs. Phoenix must play its game and know that the officials will look to call this one close out of the gates.
I think this is much ado about nothing, but with Stoudemire airing his thoughts publicly about the Spurs' "dirty" play, all eyes will be on him, and the Suns can ill afford cheap fouls.
Now let's talk hoops.
Much has been made of Tim Duncan's dominance of the Suns against single coverage, with the point being made that the Suns will have to adjust. I beg to differ.
True, Duncan had 33 and 19 and was spectacular in Game 3, but what else would we expect from Duncan? Lost in the shuffle is that Stoudemire had 21 points … in 21 minutes. The shortcoming wasn't in the matchup; it was the fact that Phoenix couldn't keep Stoudemire on the floor. The purpose of defending Duncan with single coverage isn't to shut him down, but to address other concerns:
1. Containing other key San Antonio players, especially Robert Horry and Michael Finley, who are deadly if left alone on the perimeter.
2. Using Kurt Thomas' size to achieve favorable matchups elsewhere on the floor.
3. Keeping Stoudemire out of foul trouble.
In Game 3, Horry and Finley were a combined 3-for-15 from the floor, Thomas finished with eight points and 12 rebounds and Stoudemire played very well. The problem was that even on Francisco Elson and Fabricio Oberto, Stoudemire was still saddled with foul trouble.
Despite Duncan's offensive outburst, I wouldn't look for the Suns to deviate too much from their game plan, but if the strategy is to pay off, Stoudemire must be more cognizant of avoiding fouls. It's a tough balance to attack the rim offensively and protect it defensively while constantly reminding yourself to avoid fouls in the heat of the moment -- especially if you're 24 years old -- but this is Stoudemire's challenge. Stoudemire's fourth foul against Oberto seemed out of place in a playoff environment, but on his fifth foul -- on which he was late to a rotation and had no chance to make the play -- he exercised poor judgment and should have made himself a spectator.
If Stoudemire does end up in foul trouble again in Game 4 and the Spurs are distancing themselves, the Suns may look to mix it up a bit on Duncan, showing and digging in the post. But I don't see them outright doubling him and rushing defenders to get the ball out of his hands very often. Duncan is the best in the league at outlasting the double and waiting to see if it's just a stunt or a true hard double, and making the corresponding play.
Steve Nash missed his first nine shots in Game 3, and while Bell stepped up to knock down four 3-pointers in the first half, Nash must get off to a quicker start if Phoenix is to challenge the Spurs at home. San Antonio shadows the handler and passes him along into help. With Tony Parker or Bruce Bowen riding Nash everywhere, along with shadow help, the Suns must execute their pick-and-roll, and they must keep Stoudemire on the floor to provide Nash an interior target.
Despite the endless hours of coaches breaking down video and agonizing through sleepless nights, I loved what Gregg Popovich said after Game 3: In order to win in the playoffs, your great players need to play great. Ginobili gave the Spurs the offensive punch they had been lacking. Can Ginobili once again play up to Ginobili standards? If so, the Suns will be hard-pressed to contain San Antonio at home, considering the Spurs got little production from Finley and Horry in Game 3.
I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage. Even if they were to lose Game 4, a home win puts the pressure back on the Spurs to close out the series in Game 6 or face the prospect of being closed out themselves in Game 7 in Phoenix. Not odds I'd want to press, but not inconceivable.
Everything we know instructs us to pick the Spurs in Game 4. They are at home, have the Suns talking to themselves and closed with an excellent second half of trademark San Antonio defense in Game 3. But what fun are the playoffs if we don't call for an upset every now and then? We're throwing out the book in Game 4 and playing a hunch.
Ginobili played his best game of the series in Game 3, Nash played his worst and Stoudemire played just 21 minutes. If we were in Vegas we might not take this one to the counter, but we're calling for (gulp) …
PREDICTION: Phoenix wins Game 4
ESPN.com's Scouts Inc. will provide detailed scouting reports for each NBA playoff series and each NBA playoff game.
Scouts Inc. NBA analyst Jeff Weltman was assistant general manager of the Denver Nuggets from 2001 to 2006. From 1988 to 2001, he served the Los Angeles Clippers in various personnel, scouting and administrative roles.