Game 4 Analysis - ESPN Insider

[mabber]

Scouts Inc. update: Suns vs. Spurs, Game 4By Jeff Weltman
Scouts Inc.
Archive

• Suns-Spurs series scouting report | Series page


Game 3 opened with a surprising tempo and it appeared Phoenix would be able to carry its Game 2 momentum to San Antonio. But in the third quarter Amare Stoudemire immediately collected his fourth personal foul, San Antonio ratcheted up its defense and Manu Ginobili finally played like Manu Ginobili.

While much is being made of the series becoming overly physical, I don't believe that is the case. Verbal exchanges have been made through the media and Game 3 saw some chippy play (including Bruce Bowen's knee to the groin of Steve Nash, which the league is investigating), true, but the hallmark of a rough-and-tumble series is grabbing, reaching, slapping and shoving on every play -- in other words, when fouls go unwhistled because there are simply too many to officiate. I don't think we're seeing that here.

The war of words has largely heightened the few questionable plays, but they are still the exception rather than the rule. That said, with attention now being drawn to physical play, Phoenix in particular must be careful not to fall into the trap of making this a knock-down, drag-out series. Aside from Raja Bell, the Spurs are a more physical team individually and want to play an uglier, choppier game. If the Suns look to match that style it will take them out of what they are trying to do and attract greater attention from the refs. Phoenix must play its game and know that the officials will look to call this one close out of the gates.

I think this is much ado about nothing, but with Stoudemire airing his thoughts publicly about the Spurs' "dirty" play, all eyes will be on him, and the Suns can ill afford cheap fouls.

Now let's talk hoops.

Much has been made of Tim Duncan's dominance of the Suns against single coverage, with the point being made that the Suns will have to adjust. I beg to differ.

True, Duncan had 33 and 19 and was spectacular in Game 3, but what else would we expect from Duncan? Lost in the shuffle is that Stoudemire had 21 points … in 21 minutes. The shortcoming wasn't in the matchup; it was the fact that Phoenix couldn't keep Stoudemire on the floor. The purpose of defending Duncan with single coverage isn't to shut him down, but to address other concerns:

1. Containing other key San Antonio players, especially Robert Horry and Michael Finley, who are deadly if left alone on the perimeter.

2. Using Kurt Thomas' size to achieve favorable matchups elsewhere on the floor.

3. Keeping Stoudemire out of foul trouble.

In Game 3, Horry and Finley were a combined 3-for-15 from the floor, Thomas finished with eight points and 12 rebounds and Stoudemire played very well. The problem was that even on Francisco Elson and Fabricio Oberto, Stoudemire was still saddled with foul trouble.

Despite Duncan's offensive outburst, I wouldn't look for the Suns to deviate too much from their game plan, but if the strategy is to pay off, Stoudemire must be more cognizant of avoiding fouls. It's a tough balance to attack the rim offensively and protect it defensively while constantly reminding yourself to avoid fouls in the heat of the moment -- especially if you're 24 years old -- but this is Stoudemire's challenge. Stoudemire's fourth foul against Oberto seemed out of place in a playoff environment, but on his fifth foul -- on which he was late to a rotation and had no chance to make the play -- he exercised poor judgment and should have made himself a spectator.

If Stoudemire does end up in foul trouble again in Game 4 and the Spurs are distancing themselves, the Suns may look to mix it up a bit on Duncan, showing and digging in the post. But I don't see them outright doubling him and rushing defenders to get the ball out of his hands very often. Duncan is the best in the league at outlasting the double and waiting to see if it's just a stunt or a true hard double, and making the corresponding play.

Steve Nash missed his first nine shots in Game 3, and while Bell stepped up to knock down four 3-pointers in the first half, Nash must get off to a quicker start if Phoenix is to challenge the Spurs at home. San Antonio shadows the handler and passes him along into help. With Tony Parker or Bruce Bowen riding Nash everywhere, along with shadow help, the Suns must execute their pick-and-roll, and they must keep Stoudemire on the floor to provide Nash an interior target.

Despite the endless hours of coaches breaking down video and agonizing through sleepless nights, I loved what Gregg Popovich said after Game 3: In order to win in the playoffs, your great players need to play great. Ginobili gave the Spurs the offensive punch they had been lacking. Can Ginobili once again play up to Ginobili standards? If so, the Suns will be hard-pressed to contain San Antonio at home, considering the Spurs got little production from Finley and Horry in Game 3.

I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage. Even if they were to lose Game 4, a home win puts the pressure back on the Spurs to close out the series in Game 6 or face the prospect of being closed out themselves in Game 7 in Phoenix. Not odds I'd want to press, but not inconceivable.

Everything we know instructs us to pick the Spurs in Game 4. They are at home, have the Suns talking to themselves and closed with an excellent second half of trademark San Antonio defense in Game 3. But what fun are the playoffs if we don't call for an upset every now and then? We're throwing out the book in Game 4 and playing a hunch.

Ginobili played his best game of the series in Game 3, Nash played his worst and Stoudemire played just 21 minutes. If we were in Vegas we might not take this one to the counter, but we're calling for (gulp) …

PREDICTION: Phoenix wins Game 4


ESPN.com's Scouts Inc. will provide detailed scouting reports for each NBA playoff series and each NBA playoff game.

Scouts Inc. NBA analyst Jeff Weltman was assistant general manager of the Denver Nuggets from 2001 to 2006. From 1988 to 2001, he served the Los Angeles Clippers in various personnel, scouting and administrative roles.

[Supergirl]

"I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage. Even if they were to lose Game 4, a home win puts the pressure back on the Spurs to close out the series in Game 6 or face the prospect of being closed out themselves in Game 7 in Phoenix. Not odds I'd want to press, but not inconceivable."

Uh...no. If the Spurs win game 4, the Suns are on the brink of elimination, and the Spurs have 3 chances to close them out, one of which will be on their home floor. WTF? Suns lost HCA in Game 1. Does this guy even follow basketball?

[MadDog73]

I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage. Even if they were to lose Game 4, a home win puts the pressure back on the Spurs to close out the series in Game 6 or face the prospect of being closed out themselves in Game 7 in Phoenix. Not odds I'd want to press, but not inconceivable.

??? That's an interesting take... Suns lose Game 4 and Spurs face the pressure?

Suns will have enormous pressure to win Game 5 if they lose Game 4, and Spurs will have little pressure to Win Game 6 in San Antonio, since they know they can win in PHX.

Spurs in 6.

Supergirl: I missed it too the first read. He sneaks in "a home win" (Game 5). In his view, HCA consists of having game 7 at home.

Of course, that's only an advantage if there is a Game 7, which if PHX loses tonight, will be very (and he agrees) unlikely.

Never mind, game 5 at home is what he was referring to. (thanks mabber)

[mabber]

"I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage. Even if they were to lose Game 4, a home win puts the pressure back on the Spurs to close out the series in Game 6 or face the prospect of being closed out themselves in Game 7 in Phoenix. Not odds I'd want to press, but not inconceivable."

Uh...no. If the Spurs win game 4, the Suns are on the brink of elimination, and the Spurs have 3 chances to close them out, one of which will be on their home floor. WTF? Suns lost HCA in Game 1. Does this guy even follow basketball?

I'm sure he was just saying that the Suns would go back home for game 5 (because they had HCA initially) instead of on the road (like the Warriors).

[SuperManu!!!]

Just wear a phoenix uniform and kick manu on the crotch....that will make him play even better!

[nkdlunch]

I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage. Even if they were to lose Game 4, a home win puts the pressure back on the Spurs to close out the series in Game 6 or face the prospect of being closed out themselves in Game 7 in Phoenix. Not odds I'd want to press, but not inconceivable.

is this guy ing stupid???

Spurs win tonight, they could close it out in 5, 6 or 7. In fact, pressure IS on Phoenix for the remaining of the series.

I don't believe it's do-or-die time for Phoenix just yet. Unlike the Warriors, the Suns have home-court advantage.

, no they don't u idiot. not anymore.

[Big P]

Mabber, do you have the Scouts Inc. "team blueprints"? I was curious as to what the "experts" say the Spurs should do this summer, draft FA, trades, etc. If you could post it I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks.

[mabber]

Mabber, do you have the Scouts Inc. "team blueprints"? I was curious as to what the "experts" say the Spurs should do this summer, draft FA, trades, etc. If you could post it I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks.

I just have ESPN Insider.

[Supergirl]

I see one of two scenarios about how this plays out, both in the Spurs favors:

1. Spurs win tonight, and close it out either in Game 5 in Phoenix or in Game 6 in SA.

2. Suns win tonight, but then the Spurs do their typical rebounding after a loss, and demolish the Suns on the road in Game 5, then close it out in in a close game 6 in SA.

Either way, the pressure is solidly on the Suns, and this series is SA's to lose. Barring a major meltdown, they should be on their way to the WCF.

[GrandeDavid]

Whew. I'm glad I don't waste money subscribing to ESPN Insider!

[mabber]

Whew. I'm glad I don't waste money subscribing to ESPN Insider!

It's free with subscription to ESPN Magazine.

[nkdlunch]

NBA analyst Jeff Weltman was assistant general manager of the Denver Nuggets from 2001 to 2006.

[GrandeDavid]

It's free with subscription to ESPN Magazine.

Whew. I'm glad I don't subscribe to ESPN Magazine.

[mabber]

Whew. I'm glad I don't subscribe to ESPN Magazine.

Actually, I don't hardly read it. All my mag subscriptions are free just for using my Amex card.

I do, however, like reading the scouts, inc. take on the NFL games (via ESPN Insider)

[NoMoneyDown]

Whew. I'm glad I don't subscribe to ESPN Magazine.

It's free with a subscription to Playboy.

[Big P]

Thanks for the reply mabber. Isn't scouts inc, part of Insider? This article you posted is part of scouts inc. I'm confused...

[mabber]

Thanks for the reply mabber. Isn't scouts inc, part of Insider? This article you posted is part of scouts inc. I'm confused...

Maybe it is? I just pulled it off ESPN Insider. I'll check for the information you're looking for.

I'll private message you the information since no one else on here seems to care about it.

[GrandeDavid]

It's free with a subscription to Playboy.

Alright, I'll subscribe, damnit!

[Big P]

Thanks man I really appreciate it. Didn't know about Insider being free with ESPN mag subscription. Think I'll get one, just for Insider. Back to the team blueprints, I think people are more interested in the playoffs etc. (as we should be), I was just curious as to what the experts were saying what moves teams should make in the summer. I believe they did all 30 teams, but if its too much to pm, I would greatly appreciate just the info on the Spurs. Thanks again.

[mabber]

Thanks man I really appreciate it. Didn't know about Insider being free with ESPN mag subscription. Think I'll get one, just for Insider. Back to the team blueprints, I think people are more interested in the playoffs etc. (as we should be), I was just curious as to what the experts were saying what moves teams should make in the summer. I believe they did all 30 teams, but if its too much to pm, I would greatly appreciate just the info on the Spurs. Thanks again.

No problem!

I found it. I'll PM it to you shortly.

[Big P]

Sweet. Thanks again. I think I'm going to pick up a 2 year subscription to ESPN mag for $4.99(seems like a good deal to me), that way I won't have to bother anybody. Much appreciated.

[thispego]

what the ??? secrets dont make friends!!!!

[mabber]

Sweet. Thanks again. I think I'm going to pick up a 2 year subscription to ESPN mag for $4.99(seems like a good deal to me), that way I won't have to bother anybody. Much appreciated.

This was too big to private message it to you.

I have no idea how recent this was. I noticed the Mavs report was done with a week or two left in the regular season.

Scouts Inc. Blueprint: San Antonio SpursBy Jeff Weltman
Scouts Inc.
Archive


San Antonio has been one of the most successful franchises in recent years, qualifying for the playoffs in 16 of the last 17 seasons and winning three of the last nine NBA les. The Spurs have been equally successful in managing their finances and largely have remained below the luxury tax throughout this period.




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DECISION MAKERS OWNER: PETER HOLT
FACT SHEET
Bought Spurs for $75 million in 1993
Current franchise value: $390 million
Owner's net worth: $80 million (as of 2005)

Sources: Forbes.com, USAToday.com SCORECARD
Seasons: 14
Playoffs: 13
Division les: 8
West les: 3
NBA les: 3






GM SCORECARD
By John Hollinger
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
R.C. BUFORD
Senior Vice President/General Manager
Seasons: 5
Playoffs: 5
Division les: 3
Conference les: 2
NBA les: 2

BEST MOVE: Trading for Hedo Turkoglu
I can't put the Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker draft picks here since they happened before Buford became GM, but how about the neat trick he pulled off in 2003?

As an assist for facilitating the Brad Miller sign-and-trade to Sacramento, the Spurs unloaded a player who was retiring (Danny Ferry) and obtained a starting small forward in Turkoglu who shot 41.9 percent on 3-pointers that season. A year later his expiring deal was effectively converted into Brent Barry.

WORST MOVE: Signing Nick Van Exel
The Spurs decided they needed veteran help in the backcourt after rookie Beno Udrih imploded in the 2005 Finals; they just forgot to get a veteran who still could play.

Van Exel limped through a horrid 2005-06 campaign and quietly killed the Spurs in their playoff loss to Dallas, helping to prevent a repeat championship.







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ROSTER/SALARIES



SPURS TEAM ROSTER

Brent Barry
Pos: G | Age: 35
Left: 1 yr., $5.54M Matt Bonner
Pos: FC | Age: 27
Free Agent Bruce Bowen
Pos: SF | Age: 35
Left: 1 yr., $4.12M


Jackie Butler
Pos: FC | Age: 22
Left: 2 yrs., $4.7M Tim Duncan
Pos: FC | Age: 30
Left: 3 yrs., $61.79M Francisco Elson
Pos: C | Age: 31
Left: 1 yr., $3M



Melvin Ely
Pos: FC | Age: 28
Free Agent Michael Finley
Pos: GF | Age: 34
Left: 1 yr., $3.1M Manu Ginobili
Pos: SG | Age: 29
Left: 3 yrs., $29.71M


Robert Horry
Pos: PF | Age: 36
Left: 1 yr., $3.63M Fabricio Oberto
Pos: C | Age: 32
Left: 1 yr., $2.5M Tony Parker
Pos: PG | Age: 24
Left: 4 yrs., $48.15M


Beno Udrih
Pos: G | Age: 24
Left: 1 yr., $1.74M Jacque Vaughn
Pos: PG | Age: 32
Free Agent James White
Pos: GF | Age: 24
Left. 1 yr., $687K


KEY Left: Remaining contract terms Red: Player option Green: Team option





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TEAM STATUS REPORT


SPURS CAP/TAX SITUATION
Free agents (3): Matt Bonner (r), Melvin Ely, Jacque Vaughn
Players under contract (7): Brent Barry, Jackie Butler, Tim Duncan, Francisco Elson, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Beno Udrih

Total for players under contract: $51,235,465

First-round pick: Own

Team options: None

Player options: Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto

Total for player option: $5,603,000

Limited salary protection: Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, James White

Total for players under salary protection: $8,442,456

Estimated NBA salary cap: $55 million

Maximum cap room for San Antonio Spurs: None

Estimated luxury tax threshold:
$67 million (Spurs expected to exceed threshold)

Compiled by ESPN.com staff


San Antonio long has been held in high esteem for its ability to not only marry an elite team with a sound financial platform, but to have done so over a sustained period of time. The Spurs have had an advantage in this area in that they have had two superstars (David Robinson and Tim Duncan), spaced by 10 years, around which to construct the roster. But the Spurs have acquired other hard-to-find assets and have been masterful in timing their payments to suit both the payroll and the team's needs on the court.

To have an elite, mature roster, with its core signed up well into the future, and remain under the luxury tax is rare. The reason San Antonio is able to construct its roster in this fashion is largely due to the fact that it clearly has established a three-man core around which the rest of the roster revolves. It also allows the financial pieces to snap more easily into place.

By having the three-man core signed up long-term and having played together successfully for so long, San Antonio can gauge both what it needs to surround the core as well as how much it can afford to allocate for each of those needs. For a team noted for its culture and stability, San Antonio's roster often has several new faces. At the time of this writing, for example, the Spurs' roster has six players who were not on the team a year ago. The reason San Antonio can change roster spots season to season is the same reason the changes go largely unnoticed: the team's core, its iden y and culture, remains the same. This, in turn, stabilizes the club's cap management.

With all of this said, the Spurs' payroll exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season, and is once again pointed in that direction this year. By trading Eric Williams to Charlotte for Melvin Ely, San Antonio saved approximately $1 million and brought its number down to get the club within range of slipping in below the tax, but unless the Spurs waive James White (and then assuming he was claimed on waivers) they are on course to end up a couple hundred thousand dollars above the tax.

San Antonio is at a point in its blueprint in which it is one of a handful of clubs realistically competing for the NBA championship. Therefore, it deemed the slight overage of last year's payroll -- and this year's -- a calculated investment in pursuing its goal.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


THE FUTURE

MAJOR ISSUES FOR SPURS

• Just win now, baby: Silver-and-black policy applies here, too

• Future for Bowen, Horry, Udrih: Decisions must be made

• Age a factor: Time to bring in some young blood?



True to its history, the Spurs' payroll moving forward reflects their core principle: Their best three players are the ones who are signed the longest. In the 2009-10 season, only Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are under contract (assuming Duncan does not exercise his ETO -- Early Termination Option -- in 2008-09). While the Spurs are fortunate to have such a clearly-defined nucleus, they have assembled it largely through keen scouting and savvy cap management.

The Spurs' upcoming summer will revolve around some interesting roster decisions. With the roster averaging nearly 30 years of age, the club has partially guaranteed money invested in both Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry, significant contributors to the Spurs' successful le runs. Meanwhile, Michael Finley and Fabricio Oberto each hold an option on his contract, meaning that each can elect to finish out his contract next season, or become a free agent (Finley would be unrestricted, Oberto restricted) this summer.

Including all four of those players, along with James White, (who was selected by Indiana with the 31st pick in last year's draft, waived prior to the season, and picked up by San Antonio), the Spurs' number presently stands slightly above $65 million. That number precludes cap holds and its own 2007 first-round pick, and, most importantly, the impending free agency of back-up point guard Beno Udrih.

The Spurs also own the rights to Ian Mahinmi, a 21-year-old power forward presently playing for Pau-Orthez in France, and will have to determine when the timing is best suited for him to join the club. Mahinmi was selected with the 28th pick in the 2005 draft and will assume the rookie scale of the 28th pick in whichever season he is added to the roster. In 2008 the payroll reduces significantly, but only reflects three guaranteed contracts.

Players like Duncan change the equation in assembling a roster and managing the cap, but the Spurs have excelled in piecing together an elite group around Duncan and are disciplined in their approach to free agency.

Like all great teams, they will one day be faced with the prospect of how to transition from this roster to another while remaining compe ive, but as their future finances presently stand, they will be well positioned to attack that issue as it arises.


Scouts Inc. NBA analyst Jeff Weltman was assistant general manager of the Denver Nuggets from 2001 to 2006. From 1988 to 2001, he served the Los Angeles Clippers in various personnel, scouting and administrative roles.

[duncanchick21]

[Big P]

Excellent..thanks mabber...FYI I subscribed to ESPN mag(2 yrs for $4.99) so pretty soon I wont be bothering anyone for Insider articles. Much appreciated.