Could The Spurs Be Better Without Manu?

[timvp]

The numbers make an interesting argument.

Without Manu:

PPG: 107.5
FG%: .531
3P%: .613
Reb: +22
APG: 25
TPG: 9
Opponent's PPG: 76.5
Opponent's FG%: .354
Barry PPG: 16.0
Barry FG%: 66.7%
Brown PPG: 18.5
Brown FG%: 58.3%




Is there anything to these numbers or is it one big coincidence?

[ShoogarBear]

:rollin

You must be bored, or looking to steal the "I Start Sheeyit" title.

*sits back, mentally pops open cold one*

[exstatic]

The "without Manu" sample is only two games. Compared to like the other 40, it could be said to be statisticly insignificant.

[timvp]

I'm just sayin'.

Do we need to contact the proper authorities to change the old addage that numbers never lie?

[Streakyshooter08]

Well I don't think they are better as a team but i indeed think that Barry does play better as a starter. Maybe they should start him and bring Manu off the bench. But I don't think it is goinig to happen. If Manu is healthy he is going to start...

[bigzak25]

ridiculous. props to barry and devin for stepping it up when called upon though.

what opponents other than washington are included in those numbers?

[timvp]

More stats to chew on: Two of the Spurs' four biggest wins have come in the two games that Manu was out injured. Someone should calculate the probability of that.

Not saying that I agree with what these numbers indicate ... just pointing them out.

[NCaliSpurs]

In all honesty, Tony Parker and manu still seem to be working out how to play well together. More often then not, Tony and Manu don't have big games on the same night. With that said, this is becoming less true.

But I will say that when Tony plays well, that the Spurs play well, and he plays better when he dominates the ball.

[timvp]

Someone should calculate the probability of that.

If my calculations are correct, the probability of that happening is less than 3%.

Take it for what it's worth.

:smokin

[ducks]

barry played against the wizzards

[ShoogarBear]

The two games Manu missed were @Portland and vs. Wiz. Two teams which play bad D. Portland was in the midst of a particularly bad stretch, and the Wiz were in their first game without Hughes.

Not a very representative statistical sampling. Now if Manu hadn't played against Houston or the Pistons, and those numbers showed more points, that might be a reason for discussion.

(Way too logical a discussion going on here. You get too much respect, bro. What if Sequ had started this thread?)

[duncan2k5]

i think they wont be better without him, but they would be unstoppable with barry in the starting line-up ans manu coming off the bench. it wont make that much of a difference for manu because he only plays like 30 a game. however brent seems to play well starting.

[Shelly]

Didn't the Spurs when a bunch of games when Duncan was out last year? Might as well throw that into the mix...:spin

[Rick Von Braun]

The numbers make an interesting argument.

Without Manu:

PPG: 107.5
FG%: .531
3P%: .613
Reb: +22
APG: 25
TPG: 9
Opponent's PPG: 76.5
Opponent's FG%: .354
Barry PPG: 16.0
Barry FG%: 66.7%
Brown PPG: 18.5
Brown FG%: 58.3%




Is there anything to these numbers or is it one big coincidence?How many games have Manu missed? Two (2)? Your sampling is really low.

A better indicator might be the +/- points of the team per 48 minutes with a player on/off the court.

Here is that info (http://www.82games.com/0405SAS.HTM):

Player On Court+/- Off Court+/- Team Net+/-
Duncan (http://www.82games.com/04SAS11D.HTM) +15.1 -0.5 +15.6
Ginobili (http://www.82games.com/04SAS6D.HTM) +17.1 +1.9 +15.2
Horry (http://www.82games.com/04SAS9D.HTM) +14.8 +9.3 +5.5
Nesterovic (http://www.82games.com/04SAS12D.HTM) +13.2 +8.3 +4.9
Parker (http://www.82games.com/04SAS2D.HTM) +12.1 +8.2 +3.8
Bowen (http://www.82games.com/04SAS7D.HTM) +11.7 +9.3 +2.4
Udrih (http://www.82games.com/04SAS1D.HTM) +9.0 +11.7 -2.7
Barry (http://www.82games.com/04SAS4D.HTM) +7.9 +12.8 -4.9
Wilks (http://www.82games.com/04SAS3D.HTM) -2.4 +11.5 -13.9
Rose (http://www.82games.com/04SAS8D.HTM) +1.3 +15.6 -14.3
Brown (http://www.82games.com/04SAS5D.HTM) +0.9 +16.2 -15.3
Massenburg (http://www.82games.com/04SAS10D.HTM) -4.8 +12.5 -17.4

The team seems to be clicking the most offensively when Manu is on the court (+17.1 pts, the largest of any player), and when he is off the court the team seems to get stagnat in offense (+1.9 pts, second behind Duncan).

It is clear from the above numbers that the combo of Duncan/Manu are Spurs' catalyst. Not surprisingly, they are the most productive pair of players (http://www.82games.com/ppairs0405.htm)in the entire NBA.

Current player pair leaders in 2004-05 (as of 1/17/05)
# Team Player1 Player2 +/- Off/g Def/g Net
1 SA Ginobili Duncan +390 102.6 80.5 +22.1
2 PHO Nash Marion +351 115.6 100.6 +15.0
3 DAL Terry Nowitzki +267 109.3 91.2 +18.1
4 SEA Allen Radmanovic +227 109.6 96.6 +13.0
5 MIA D.Jones Wade +192 108.5 97.8 +10.7

[bigzak25]

one could also look at how well or badly the team played after manu went down vs houston.....

i did not see this game, however, so you tell me.

[Solid D]

It just means the Spurs can afford to hold Manu out against bottom-feeder wannabees. :hat

Besides, I just got hooked up with my "20" Spurs Home Jersey after he signed his mega deal. Don't be messin' with Manu.

[ducks]

spurs would be better of with out manning if they had boozer

[Kori Ellis]

BS Thread Forum

[bigzak25]

holy shit ducks.....wtf are you talking about? :lol

[Solid D]

spurs would be better of with out manning if they had boozer

Classic. Please move to the Danny Manning Forum. :)

[Kori Ellis]

I thought he was talking about Peyton, not Danny.

[Solid D]

:lol

[ShoogarBear]

holy shit ducks.....wtf are you talking about? :lol

C'mon, if all of us actually typed that every time we thought it . . .

[timvp]

How many games have Manu missed? Two (2)? Your sampling is really low.

A better indicator might be the +/- points of the team per 48 minutes with a player on/off the court.

Here is that info (http://www.82games.com/0405SAS.HTM):

Player On Court+/- Off Court+/- Team Net+/-
Duncan (http://www.82games.com/04SAS11D.HTM) +15.1 -0.5 +15.6
Ginobili (http://www.82games.com/04SAS6D.HTM) +17.1 +1.9 +15.2
Horry (http://www.82games.com/04SAS9D.HTM) +14.8 +9.3 +5.5
Nesterovic (http://www.82games.com/04SAS12D.HTM) +13.2 +8.3 +4.9
Parker (http://www.82games.com/04SAS2D.HTM) +12.1 +8.2 +3.8
Bowen (http://www.82games.com/04SAS7D.HTM) +11.7 +9.3 +2.4
Udrih (http://www.82games.com/04SAS1D.HTM) +9.0 +11.7 -2.7
Barry (http://www.82games.com/04SAS4D.HTM) +7.9 +12.8 -4.9
Wilks (http://www.82games.com/04SAS3D.HTM) -2.4 +11.5 -13.9
Rose (http://www.82games.com/04SAS8D.HTM) +1.3 +15.6 -14.3
Brown (http://www.82games.com/04SAS5D.HTM) +0.9 +16.2 -15.3
Massenburg (http://www.82games.com/04SAS10D.HTM) -4.8 +12.5 -17.4

The team seems to be clicking the most offensively when Manu is on the court (+17.1 pts, the largest of any player), and when he is off the court the team seems to get stagnat in offense (+1.9 pts, second behind Duncan).

It is clear from the above numbers that the combo of Duncan/Manu are Spurs' catalyst. Not surprisingly, they are the most productive pair of players (http://www.82games.com/ppairs0405.htm)in the entire NBA.

Current player pair leaders in 2004-05 (as of 1/17/05)
# Team Player1 Player2 +/- Off/g Def/g Net
1 SA Ginobili Duncan +390 102.6 80.5 +22.1
2 PHO Nash Marion +351 115.6 100.6 +15.0
3 DAL Terry Nowitzki +267 109.3 91.2 +18.1
4 SEA Allen Radmanovic +227 109.6 96.6 +13.0
5 MIA D.Jones Wade +192 108.5 97.8 +10.7


So you are saying it is a < 3% statistical fluke that two of the four biggest Spurs' blowouts came with Manu on the sidelines?

I'm not arguing either way on this matter. Just trying to understand this anomaly.

[bigzak25]

"spurs would be fine with letting manu go if they had the chance to bolster their interior presence with a player such as carlos boozer"

i still disagree.

[ducks]

manu I am sorry

I was eating and typing here at the same tiem plus watching the cafe

[exstatic]

Damn, I guess it's time to update the Ducktionary from 1.9 to 2.0.

[Useruser666]

Does that come in a PC version Ex?

[Kori Ellis]

No, it doesn't. Fuck Bill Gates.

[SpursWoman]

:lmao :lmao

[BigVee]

Let's start Manu and Barry....let BB come in at the 6 min mark. By then you know who might have the hot hand on the opposition. Man wouldn't you love to see Manu and Brent flying down the court ojn a two on one????

[Kori Ellis]

Okay, back to the subject at hand. This thread by my husband is total crap. You can't take a two game sample against bad defensive teams and make any conclusions. Fortunately, Manu won't be sitting out much longer, so we won't need to test this bogus theory.

[travis2]

I'm just sayin'.

Do we need to contact the proper authorities to change the old addage that numbers never lie?

"Figures never lie...but liars figure."

You mean that one? :smokin

[Useruser666]

OWNED!!!

http://img23.exs.cx/img23/3125/duff1003kg.jpg

[travis2]

If my calculations are correct, the probability of that happening is less than 3%.

Take it for what it's worth.

:smokin

Based on what? I'd like to see those calculations myself...

[timvp]

This message is hidden because The Princess is on your ignore list.

:drunk

[Useruser666]

Wouldn't it say Kori Ellis is on your ignore list? Faker!

[travis2]

:lmao

[boutons]

"how well or badly the team played after manu went down vs houston....."

The Spurs sucked for all 48 minutes, with or without Manu, but Manu's layups, stealing, rebounds, hustle, closing plays in crunch minutes could have won the game, even with the Spurs missing 3 FTs last coupla minutes.

[SpursWoman]

Damn....ya'll made me spit.



No, the Spurs aren't better w/o Manu. :)

[Shelly]

OWNED!!!

http://img23.exs.cx/img23/3125/duff1003kg.jpg

Wait....is that's Jim's signature on that bill???

[Jimcs50]

The only positive about not having Manu is, Pop would retain what hair he has left, a bit longer.

[Slo spurs fan]

Kori slam this mofo once for me (for starting this thread) please! :lol

[timvp]

After a little more research, the Spurs were 4-1 in the five games that Manu missed last year. In those five games, the Spurs held the opponent to 80.6 points per game. So in seven games that he's missed, the Spurs are 6-1 and holding opponents to 79.6 points per game.

Stupid lying numbers.

Right?

[Rick Von Braun]

So you are saying it is a < 3% statistical fluke that two of the four biggest Spurs' blowouts came with Manu on the sidelines?

I'm not arguing either way on this matter. Just trying to understand this anomaly.I apologize if I don't understand the humor, I am really bad at reading sarcasm and I didn't see any smilies.

If you really want a serious answer, you run something called ANOVA test to verify if the difference in the variable you measured (ppg, point differential, whatever) is significant when he played or didn't play. Most of the time, you need equal sample sizes in both cases, but there are ways to adjust this. The degrees of freedom in the second case with only 2 samples is 1, and the difference in the variable measured should be mastodonic (probably order of magnitude larger) to really make a significant impact. The test would give you sampling error as the main cause of the difference (i.e. not statistically significant).

Anyway, sorry if I ruined your comment made with your tongue firmly in your cheek with my stats babbling. http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smidrunk.gif

[travis2]

Games from last year are more properly considered as members of a different population. Yes, yes, I know amateur statisticians do it all the time...but there are three kinds of untruths: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Still waiting on those calculations...*final Jeopardy theme in background*

[Kori Ellis]

http://www.nooksandniches.com/ProductImages/ourname/troublemug.gif

[BigVee]

Okay timvp, now tell us how many games the Spurs won with Manu in the line-up that they would have lost if he had not played. Not as easy, huh?

[Kori Ellis]

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/FAQ/2003_May/May_11-17/gidollk.jpg

[timvp]

Games from last year are more properly considered as members of a different population. Yes, yes, I know amateur statisticians do it all the time...but there are three kinds of untruths: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Still waiting on those calculations...*final Jeopardy theme in background*

Well here is a math problem for you and you can give me your answer. You tell a friend that you have two numbers in your head between 1-40. They have four guesses to pick the two numbers. What is the probability that they guess the two numbers?

:smokin

[Slo spurs fan]

:lmao

[Solid D]

Thread actually started by the other, poser timvp

http://www.timvp.com/me.jpg
timvp in his "home office"

http://www.timvp.com/

[Shelly]

:lmao

Will the REAL Timvp please stand up?

[Solid D]

http://www.timvp.com/bioc8.jpg

timvp and his cat, violentkitten

[Slo spurs fan]

:lmao :lmao :lmao

[genghisrex]

Well here is a math problem for you and you can give me your answer. You tell a friend that you have two numbers in your head between 1-40. They have four guesses to pick the two numbers. What is the probability that they guess the two numbers?

:smokin
So are you saying that the outcomes of basketball games are essentially random?

[Spurminator]

Is Kori better off without timvp?

;)

[Shelly]

:lol at Solid D

[timvp]

http://www.simonsays.com/assets/isbn/0743254600/C_0743254600.jpg

[gay abc]

Thread actually started by the other, poser timvp

http://www.timvp.com/me.jpg
timvp in his "home office"

http://www.timvp.com/



HE'S HOT!!!!!

[timvp]

So are you saying that the outcomes of basketball games are essentially random?

No, I'm just breaking it down so that a statistical probability could be made. It's the only way a number could be reached.

[Solid D]

Sorry to have to pull that one out on you bro'. :smokin

[timvp]

That's cool.

Nobody liked this thread anyways.

:depressed

[travis2]

Well here is a math problem for you and you can give me your answer. You tell a friend that you have two numbers in your head between 1-40. They have four guesses to pick the two numbers. What is the probability that they guess the two numbers?

:smokin

We can state the problem this way...

If we denote a wrong guess as a "0" and a correct guess as a "1", then there are six possible ways to get the correct numbers in four or fewer guesses:

11, 101, 011, 0011, 0101, 1001

The probability of a correct answer is the sum of the individual probabilities of each occurence.

Let us assume your brain uses a random number generator based on a uniform distribution, and further assume that the two numbers are distinct (the two numbers are not the same). Finally, let us assume the order chosen does not matter.

The first case above can then be calculated as (2/40)(1/39) = .001282
Second case: (2/40)(38/39)(1/38) = .001282
Third case: (38/40)(2/39)(1/38) = .001282
Fourth case: (38/40)(37/39)(2/38)(1/37) = .001282
Fifth case: (38/40)(2/39)(37/38)(1/37) = .001282
Sixth case: (2/40)(38/39)(37/38)(1/37) = .001282

Total = .00769

[Spurminator]

Since we're on the theme of off-the-wall hypotheticals...

Would you trade Manu for Kenyon Martin?

[TheWriter]

Well Tim, why didn't the Spurs blow out the Rockets? I remember Manu not playing in the entire second half.

Two games and you've come to the conclusion that Manu isn't needed? That we’re better without him?

How about when the Spurs went 4 of 6 with Tim on the sideline March of last season. We hit the 107, 108, and 113 point marks without him. Guess he isn't needed, using Timvp's wonderfully genius logic.

[timvp]

We can state the problem this way...

If we denote a wrong guess as a "0" and a correct guess as a "1", then there are six possible ways to get the correct numbers in four or fewer guesses:

11, 101, 011, 0011, 0101, 1001

The probability of a correct answer is the sum of the individual probabilities of each occurence.

Let us assume your brain uses a random number generator based on a uniform distribution, and further assume that the two numbers are distinct (the two numbers are not the same). Finally, let us assume the order chosen does not matter.

The first case above can then be calculated as (2/40)(1/39) = .001282
Second case: (2/40)(38/39)(1/38) = .001282
Third case: (38/40)(2/39)(1/38) = .001282
Fourth case: (38/40)(37/39)(2/38)(1/37) = .001282
Fifth case: (38/40)(2/39)(37/38)(1/37) = .001282
Sixth case: (2/40)(38/39)(37/38)(1/37) = .001282

Total = .00769

So are you saying that the chances of Manu missing two of the Spurs' four biggest wins due to some random occurance are less than 8%?

Interesting.

:drunk

[Kori Ellis]

Umm.. read the thread Writer. timvp didn't make any conclusions. He just posted the thread as food for thought.

[TheWriter]

That we’re better without him?



Could The Spurs Be Better Without Manu?

[timvp]

Well Tim, why didn't the Spurs blow out the Rockets? I remember Manu not playing in the entire second half.

Two games and you've come to the conclusion that Manu isn't needed? That we’re better without him?

How about when the Spurs went 4 of 6 with Tim on the sideline March of last season. We hit the 107, 108, and 113 point marks without him. Guess he isn't needed, using Timvp's wonderfully genius logic.

As usual, the meaning of a thread escapes TheWriter.

[Kori Ellis]

Yeah those are questions, not conclusions.

[timvp]

Is TheWriter blind to question marks?

Question?

[TheWriter]

As usual, the meaning of a thread escapes TheWriter.

The meaning of this thread is that you saw the Spurs win the two games Manu was out injured and it somehow crept into your brain that "maybe" the Spurs could be better off without out him, better even. Right? Because you had to to even start the thread.

All I am doing is pointing out the flawed logic in such thinking.

[TheWriter]

I saw the question mark, but you wouldn't of even posed the question if you didn't slightly believe it yourself.

[timvp]

The meaning of this thread is that you saw the Spurs win the two games Manu was out injured and it somehow crept into your brain that "maybe" the Spurs could be better off without out him, better even. Right? Because you had to to even start the thread.

All I am doing is pointing out the flawed logic in such thinking.

Wrong.

I just pointed out the numbers so you could make your own conclusion. If that is too difficult for you to comprehend, then just press back on your browser and check out other threads.

Thanks.

:hat

[timvp]

I saw the question mark, but you wouldn't of even posed the question if you didn't slightly believe it yourself.

Huh?

So you don't think at all? Why have a brain if all you are going to do is go along with everything you only know is 100% true?

Learn. Invent. Live.

:smokin

[TheWriter]

And my conclusion is that those number are bullshit relative to judging Manu’s importance on this team, that your logic is flawed. Is that to difficult for you to comprehend?

[TheWriter]

Huh?

So you don't think at all? Why have a brain if all you are going to do is go along with everything you only know is 100% true?

Learn. Invent. Live.

:smokin

I am talking about you, I made the assumption that you believed the Spurs are better without Manu, you disagreed, I simply stated that you wouldn't have asked the question of this thread if you didn't believe it in some way shape or form.

[timvp]

And my conclusion is that those number are bullshit relative to judging Manu’s importance on this team, that your logic is flawed. Is that to difficult for you to comprehend?

You mean the numbers are flawed because of the small amount of samples? If that is your conclusion, congrats on figuring out what everyone else in this thread concluded as well.

I'm sorry that even pointing at numbers that question the Spurs is such a hard thing for you to handle. Maybe next time have someone hold your hand when you open one of my threads.

Thanks.

[T Park]

Buddy Holly, theres a pothole on Blanco road, go write a petition for it.



IMO, If Devin Brown were further along in his progress, and you could rely on Brent Barry to come through offensively in 4th quarters, I would trade Ginobili.


Ginobili would get you a DAMN good post presence.

[TheWriter]

You mean the numbers are flawed because of the small amount of samples? If that is your conclusion, congrats on figuring out what everyone else in this thread concluded as well.

I'm sorry that even pointing at numbers that question the Spurs is such a hard thing for you to handle. Maybe next time have someone hold your hand when you open one of my threads.

Thanks.

It's not my fault I saw stupid and call it on itself (you question).

[timvp]

I am talking about you, I made the assumption that you believed the Spurs are better without Manu, you disagreed, I simply stated that you wouldn't have asked the question of this thread if you didn't believe it in some way shape or form.

Apology accepted. Next time don't assume until you read the entire thread, not just the title.

[Spurminator]

Which brings us back to Manu for Martin.

Yea or Nay?

Think about it...

FC - Duncan
F - Martin
F - Bowen
G - Barry/Brown
G - Parker

With Barry or Brown off the bench with Rasho.

Enticing...


(Or could we even do better than Martin?)

[timvp]

It's not my fault I saw stupid and call it on itself (you question).

Ducks has competition.

[TheWriter]

Buddy Holly, theres a pothole on Blanco road, go write a petition for it.

Oh man, that one hurt. It did.

By the way, where you by chance jumping up and down on Blanco Road?


IMO, If Devin Brown were further along in his progress, and you could rely on Brent Barry to come through offensively in 4th quarters, I would trade Ginobili.


Ginobili would get you a DAMN good post presence.

But we're not at the point where Devin is a 12 and 6 guy or Brent is 5 years younger.

I'd trade Barry and maybe even Devin before Manu.

You're an idiot TPug.

[Manu20]

The one thing the Spurs do better when Manu does not play is take care of the ball. In the Portland game they had 8 turnovers as a team and against the Wizards they had 10. I wonder why????

[SpursWoman]

Ginobili would get you a DAMN good post presence.



What? And take away Rasho's minutes? WTF? ;)

[bigzak25]

don't forget manu's D. sure bruce is our money man, but manu logs good minutes on the defensive side as well....

and one shot for 3 in the playoffs to win the game....you want barry, beno, devin, bowen, parker or manu taking that shot? rank'em. and remember who's hit big 3's in the playoffs for us before when you do.

[ShoogarBear]

What? And take away Rasho's minutes? WTF? ;)

:lmao

[T Park]

I would explain my stance on Nesterovic for the billionth time, But ill refrain for the children in the audience.

If you could trade Ginobili, and get a PJ Brown, a Kenyon Martin, a Nazy Mohammed, IMO, you do it.

Big men are much harder to come by, than great forwards.


I agreed with TIMVP this summer when he said take Manu's money and give it to Boozer.

Boozer, Duncan, Bowen, Brown Parker is a dynasty waiting to happen.

Plus, Rasho would improve coming off the bench, playing against lesser competition, AND, not having to be next to Duncan.

[Frenchise player]

This remind me that a while ago, some fans wanted to start Beno and trade parker.
Now it is time for Manu to be criticize. Duncan must watch out before someone step up and say somethin like we should trade Duncan for O'Neil or Garnett

[T Park]

barry, beno, devin, bowen, parker or manu

Manu
Devin
Barry
Beno
Bowen
Parker



No question Manu is on the top of that list, but, you trading Manu getting back an all star Forward, you prob wouldnt have to worry about it.

[T Park]

O'Neil or Garnett

If you offered me garnett for Duncan??

Id have to think about it.

Id prob take it.

[Marcus Garvey]

Would you pay KG with this paper:

http://www.boomspeed.com/sweetc/Tpark50.jpg

?

[SpursWoman]

I would explain my stance on Nesterovic for the billionth time, But ill refrain for the children in the audience.


Leave it to you to misinterpret a good-natured tease.

[T Park]

Sniff, I didnt see a smile.

[violentkitten]

an overlooked factor in this discussion is that if you drop manu then you lose quality argentine bandwagon fans like ALVAREZ

[ShoogarBear]

Damn. This thread, goofy as it started, is approaching Classic status.

[san antonio spurs]

I'm just surprised that a man who was invited at the roundtable to discuss about the NBA and the spurs,someone considered having enlightened opinions can start such a BS thread.
BS because u can't ask if the spurs could be better without MANU?were u really serious when u asked that?or u were just bored??
________
HotLilu (http://www.girlcamfriend.com/cam/HotLilu/)

[violentkitten]

spurs fans always let blind love get in the way when it comes to basketball.

[timvp]

I'm just surprised that a man who was invited at the roundtable to discuss about the NBA and the spurs,someone considered having enlightened opinions can start such a BS thread.
BS because u can't ask if the spurs could be better without MANU?were u really serious when u asked that?or u were just bored??

Read the thread, san antonio, texas has a basketball team named the Spurs in the league commonly known as the N.B.A.

[Guru of Nothing]

an overlooked factor in this discussion is that if you drop manu then you lose quality argentine bandwagon fans like ALVAREZ

BUT, what if we got a Balla in return?

[ALVAREZ6]

BUT, what if we got a Balla in return?
A balla??? Fuck that.

This thread is retarded.

[ChumpDumper]

After a little more research, the Spurs were 4-1 in the five games that Manu missed last year. In those five games, the Spurs held the opponent to 80.6 points per game.A Manu-for-Hedo argument if I ever saw one. Of course we all know that isn't true.

If you want to trade him for a big man, I guess that's ok -- but what are we paying Malik the same money for?

I really wanted to get another shotblocker on the team, I'd still call up Lonnie Jones before someone else gets a chance to. It's going to happen and the next draft is very bad for getting a decent big man to boot. We're going to be shrugging our shoulders saying things like, "maybe Channing Frye will turn the corner in Pop's system."

Maybe we'll be able to trade Wilks for a project in the offseason.

[ALVAREZ6]

an overlooked factor in this discussion is that if you drop manu then you lose quality argentine bandwagon fans like ALVAREZ
Exactly.

Especially since Scola is a Spur next year, Scola and Manu on the same team..come on.

[bigzak25]

some of you guys are too touchy and are looking to swipe your claws at every opportunity. the thread is fodder for thought. stats support the thesis. limited stats of course, but still. at the very least it make me wonder if dev and barry should get more minutes.....but as someone already stated, at the end of the day, Pop's should/will sub based on D matchups and who has the hot hand.

[travis2]

So are you saying that the chances of Manu missing two of the Spurs' four biggest wins due to some random occurance are less than 8%?

Interesting.

:drunk

Actually, it's less than 0.8 %

And no, that's not what I'm saying. I calculated the probability of guessing 2 numbers in the range 1-40 in 4 tries (with some assumptions). Not at all the same thing.

[Brodels]

I would explain my stance on Nesterovic for the billionth time, But ill refrain for the children in the audience.

If you could trade Ginobili, and get a PJ Brown, a Kenyon Martin, a Nazy Mohammed, IMO, you do it.

Big men are much harder to come by, than great forwards.


I agreed with TIMVP this summer when he said take Manu's money and give it to Boozer.

Boozer, Duncan, Bowen, Brown Parker is a dynasty waiting to happen.

Plus, Rasho would improve coming off the bench, playing against lesser competition, AND, not having to be next to Duncan.


I'm more in favor of keeping Manu, but I'm on board with at least considering bringing him off the bench. If Tony is playing well and Tim is getting lots of touches, Manu sometimes struggles to be involved in the offense. If he came off the bench, he could be the offensive focal point. I think it's worth considering. It would give the first unit a pure perimeter shooter (Barry) to go along with a post player and a slasher, and it would give the second unit some serious energy and offensive punch.

I'd consider trading Manu if the Spurs could get a real quality big guy in return. Manu and Rasho for Boozer? I'd probably do that. But I wouldn't trade him for P.J. Brown or Nazr Mohammed. And I think that Kenyon Martin is overrated.

It's good to have all these options.

[SpursWoman]

We can state the problem this way...

If we denote a wrong guess as a "0" and a correct guess as a "1", then there are six possible ways to get the correct numbers in four or fewer guesses:

11, 101, 011, 0011, 0101, 1001

The probability of a correct answer is the sum of the individual probabilities of each occurence.

Let us assume your brain uses a random number generator based on a uniform distribution, and further assume that the two numbers are distinct (the two numbers are not the same). Finally, let us assume the order chosen does not matter.

The first case above can then be calculated as (2/40)(1/39) = .001282
Second case: (2/40)(38/39)(1/38) = .001282
Third case: (38/40)(2/39)(1/38) = .001282
Fourth case: (38/40)(37/39)(2/38)(1/37) = .001282
Fifth case: (38/40)(2/39)(37/38)(1/37) = .001282
Sixth case: (2/40)(38/39)(37/38)(1/37) = .001282

Total = .00769


travis...

you need to get one of these for the next time you feel compelled to whip out the statistical calculations, so you know...you don't ever have to leave your chair 'n stuff..... :lol


http://www.joe-ks.com/archives_mar2003/Leak.jpg

[T Park]

Nazr Mohammed.


well have to agree to disagree on this guy.

Nice jumper, shotblocker, rebounder..


Hed become an All Star next to Duncan.

Rose/Rasho Manu for Mohammed?

[ShoogarBear]

Nazr? Interesting, maybe.

But no way you include Manu in a package for him.

[GoSpurs21]

The numbers make an interesting argument.

Without Manu:

PPG: 107.5
FG%: .531
3P%: .613
Reb: +22
APG: 25
TPG: 9
Opponent's PPG: 76.5
Opponent's FG%: .354
Barry PPG: 16.0
Barry FG%: 66.7%
Brown PPG: 18.5
Brown FG%: 58.3%

Is there anything to these numbers or is it one big coincidence?Numbers are nice but misleading...from these stats...how many games are:
against top 5 teams in the league
on the road against top 10 teams in the league

Manu has only be out two games this season so I think the sample size is pretty small...all my experience in test engineering tells me that the data is incomplete and the sample size needs to be from MORE games

but I guess people who are only into stats and don't consider intangables love numbers like above

[Brodels]

well have to agree to disagree on this guy.

Nice jumper, shotblocker, rebounder..


Hed become an All Star next to Duncan.

Rose/Rasho Manu for Mohammed?

Yeah, we will. I don't think he's a bad player, but to think he'd become an all-star when even David Robinson wasn't one in his last few years is crazy.

He hustles and has some athleticism, but he's certainly not worth what Manu is worth. If the Spurs really want him, they can probably get him without trading Manu.

In addition, the Knicks have enough swing players already.

[Uncle Donnie]

http://www.webimagestudios.com/betax/images/manu_timvp.jpg

[T Park]

get him without trading Manu.


Hes the only player of worth the Knicks would want.

[ChumpDumper]

I think Zeke would take Rasho for Kurt Thomas so he could play Nazr at the 4, but Nazr himself is pretty untouchable -- he's the only worthwhile thing to come out of the Van Horn trade.

[T Park]

I would not trade Nesterovic for Kurt Thomas.

Why would you need three undersized Center/PFs on this team.

[ChumpDumper]

I wasn't really advocating it -- just saying what Zeke would go for. But if you want consistency and offense up front, he's your man. My thoughts about shotblockers are well known and our defense would probably suffer without Rasho. It's a tradeoff.

[T Park]

Im not saying you were, but I agree, offense up front, maybe a shade bit better rebounding, he is your man.


But defensively and blocking shots, and someone who can fill the lane and drive out cutters to the lane, he is not your guy..


And with the Spurs, if the defense suffers, they lose, that simple.

[Marcus Bryant]

http://www.webimagestudios.com/betax/images/manu_timvp.jpg


http://www.scapenotes.com/notes/econs/applaud.gif

I must come out of retirement to recognize this.

-MB
FSP Poster Emeritus

[Nikos]

I'm more in favor of keeping Manu, but I'm on board with at least considering bringing him off the bench. If Tony is playing well and Tim is getting lots of touches, Manu sometimes struggles to be involved in the offense. If he came off the bench, he could be the offensive focal point. I think it's worth considering. It would give the first unit a pure perimeter shooter (Barry) to go along with a post player and a slasher, and it would give the second unit some serious energy and offensive punch.

I don't really see the difference in putting him on the bench. He comes out of the game with 6 min to go usually anyways in the 1st Q. Even if he is feeling it sometimes he is taken out. A lot of times he comes in when Beno relieves TP a bit. I don't see what the big deal about him running the second unit is. Sometimes he does it anyway, its not like he exclusively plays with Parker.

If Barry is infinetely better as a starter, I would honestly replace Bowen then. If the Spurs need the offense that much from Barry, then just take Bowen out (the defense surely can't be POOR EVER with Duncan and Rasho in). And Barry could make the offense damn near perfect.

I just don't see the need to bench Manu at this point. Maybe if he was playing really poorly, and Barry played 6-7 games as a starter and was on FIRE.

No need to bench him. Pop regularly subs Manu in and out, and again gives him minutes when Parker is not on the floor. He usually does a solid job of being the psuedo floor general/playmaker in that case.

Right now Parker has the ball only a few more possesions per game that Manu (as far as making something happen, a shot, assist, TO etc...). I'm sure Manu sees the ball a little more if hes feeling it, or if TP is out. I think it levels out. They both get it a good amount of times with or without each other.

[travis2]

travis...

you need to get one of these for the next time you feel compelled to whip out the statistical calculations, so you know...you don't ever have to leave your chair 'n stuff..... :lol


http://www.joe-ks.com/archives_mar2003/Leak.jpg

I wish I could see the pic...

Besides...don't hate me because I'm beautiful... :nerd

:lol

[Solid D]

I must come out of retirement to recognize this.

-MB
FSP Poster Emeritus


Glad you checked in, Marcus. This topic has A.D.D.

[timvp]

Bump.


well have to agree to disagree on this guy.

Nice jumper, shotblocker, rebounder..


Hed become an All Star next to Duncan.

Rose/Rasho Manu for Mohammed?

I knew I remembered T Park loving Nazr. He was willing to trade Rose AND Manu for him.

It's an early Christmas for T Park.

:wow

[nacho estrada]

TPARK must have been hitting that blueberry yum yum thinking that mess... Rose/Rasho and MANU for Nazr Mohammed??!! Laughable...

[ShoogarBear]

Hmm, this presents a conflict for the TParkster:

Rasho or Nazr?

Why not both? Get rid of that Duncan clown.

[ALVAREZ6]

Why has the thread been brought back, honostly.

Last night Manu had a few steals, a block, and only missed 1 shot from what I was watching, and it was a 3.

I agree though, the Spurs would be 10 times better without Manu.

[timvp]

Read.

[whottt]

Nazr himself is pretty untouchable

^^^Loves suck ass players. As I have always said.

[ChumpDumper]

At the time -- under Wilkens and averaging a double-double and the only good thing that came out of the Van Horn trade -- he was untouchable, and show me where i say I love him. You've officially written off the season, so why are you still here?

[whottt]

Some of us don't have to eat shit to know we won't like it. Others...walk around in a dense fog of ignorance, lacking foresight and hindsight.

[whottt]

And BTW, I haven't seen you make jack shit of a prediction for this season you fence straddling bitch...don't be calling me out on what you think I might have done, twister..

[dcole50]

I'm just sayin'.

Do we need to contact the proper authorities to change the old addage that numbers never lie?
you're comparing two games to the whole season. if we had great stats against the bobcats without duncan, would you want to trade him? same logic, nearly.

[ChumpDumper]

And BTW, I haven't seen you make jack shit of a prediction for this season you fence straddling bitch.Thanks, but I told you about Philly and the Spurs last night, and I was completely right about both. You never realize when school is in session, do you?

What would you like a prediction for?

What's your prediction for the rest of the Spurs' season?

For Malik's and Nazr's stats for their new teams?

Step up.

[ShoogarBear]

you're comparing two games to the whole season. if we had great stats against the bobcats without duncan, would you want to trade him? same logic, nearly.

:lmao :lmao

I knew somebody would start back in on the original argument.

[whottt]

Thanks, but I told you about Philly and the Spurs last night, and I was completely right about both. You never realize when school is in session, do you?

STFU you are wrong so often. You are fucking owned beyond all comprehension. Just cuz TimVP has a redass over AJ don't get forget how wrong you are all the time.


What happend to your prediction that Nazr was untradeable? Huh? What happened scrublover?

Yeah...


What would you like a prediction for?

Don't be sitting here calling me out for quitting on the team when you haven't even made a prediction about what the team will do this this season, performance wise...and don't change the subject...I was responding to you saying I gave up the season.

You didn't even make a prediction for this season...you are too much of a fence straddling pussy to even bet Vbucks...



What's your prediction for the rest of the Spurs' season?

For Malik's and Nazr's stats for their new teams?

My prediction is not going to change. I already made my predictions for W-L record, and our eventual finish.

As for Malik VS Nazr...it's stupid to predict stats, much like it is fucking stupid to try and predict set minutes and it also has no bearing on team performance.

But I made my big predictions...

Where are yours?



Step up.

Fuck off.

[ChumpDumper]

What happend to your prediction that Nazr was untradeable? RIF.
My prediction is not going to change. I already made my predictions for W-L record, and our eventual finish. I'm sure you have the link. And if Nazr is so awful, how come your predictions won't change? Why are your panties in a bunch over this trade? Explain.

I think Seattle, Houston, Miami and Detroit could still own us in the playoffs. Otherwise we should be fine.

[SequSpur]

Now, who said Manu was an allstar?

[ChumpDumper]

As for Malik VS Nazr...it's stupid to predict statsScurred. I understand.

Funny you just predicted what Malik would do in the East in another thread.

Does that not count?

I own you because you help me.

[whottt]

RIF.

No Chump, for you dumbass is fundamental.



I'm sure you have the link.

Always with the links...motherfucker I'm not the one that needs to back my stuff up, because I didn't try and hide the one time I was wrong.

Unlike you who is wrong 99% of the time.

But since you asked for links...

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=172018&posted=1#post172018

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5305&page=2&pp=26





And if Nazr is so awful, how come your predictions won't change?

It's not that he's awful...he's just mediocre.

How hard is it to understand that someone has got to put up numbers on every team...no matter how shitty a team someone is going to put up some kind of high numbers...

You'd think you dumbasses would have learned this after the Charlie Ward debacle.



Why are your panties in a bunch over this trade? Explain.

Because the Spurs fucked with the chemistry of this team and made the road to a title more difficult...for financial reasons.

[ChumpDumper]

Because the Spurs fucked with the chemistry of this team and made the road to a title more difficult.But your prediction isn't changing. So there's no effect at all.

Or is there?

Make up your mind.

[whottt]

But your prediction isn't changing. So there's no effect at all.

Or is there?

Make up your mind.

Geez you are fucking stupid...I never said my prediction changed, you did. And now you are saying it changed again...this is one of those dances of stupidity you do with yourself.

[ChumpDumper]

I never said my prediction changedSo Nazr doesn't really make anything more difficult. The result is the same according to your unwavering prediction, so all your whining is for naught.

Again.

I asked you if Nazr changes anything.

You say no.

OK.

Or would you like to change your prediction to suit this argument?

[whottt]

Are you too stupid to differentiate between changing my prediction and Nazr making a difference?

Scratch that, I already know the answer.

Let me spell it out for you...it will be harder to win a title with Nazr instead of Malik...but no I am not changing my prediction.

[ChumpDumper]

Let me spell it out for you...it will be harder to win a title with Nazr instead of Malik...but no I am not changing my prediction.So 63+ wins and a title, no matter if it's Rose or Nazr.

There you have it.

Several pages of nonargument for no change.