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funny if you go to
http://www.kingsfans.com/ they pick the spurs to win the series though
Round 1 Preview
Written by Mr. S£im Citrus
Thursday, 20 April 2006
(1) San Antonio Spurs versus (8) Sacramento Kings
Two teams that are no strangers to the playoffs will face each other in the postseason for the very first time, as the San Antonio Spurs will begin their quest for a fourth NBA Championship when they face the Sacramento Kings in the first round of the playoffs. San Antonio (63-19) is competing in the playoffs for the ninth consecutive season. They have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs for the ninth consecutive season. Sacramento (44-38) is competing in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season. They are opening the playoffs on the road for the second consecutive season.
COMPARISON
GUARDS: Sacramento’s starting guards and San Antonio’s starting guards are fairly evenly matched: their starting point guards, Mike Bibby and Tony Parker, respectively, have remarkably similar numbers, for the most part, with Parker shooting a higher percentage from two-point range, and Bibby shooting a higher percentage from all other aspects. While Bibby is effective at getting into the lane to score or create opportunities for his teammates, the advantage in this aspect goes to Parker, who is perhaps the most proficient in the NBA at scoring in the paint from the guard position, whereas Bibby is much more dangerous from eighteen feet and beyond than Parker. Neither player is particularly threatening defensively, but Parker appears to be a slightly better team defender.
The starting shooting guards for each team are just as similarly matched: Manu Ginobili and Bonzi Wells both spent considerable portions of the regular season plagued by injuries, with Ginobili missing eighteen games and Wells missing thirty. While neither man is primarily considered a perimeter threat, Ginobili is much more comfortable outside, shooting a substantially higher percentage from the three-point line. Both players are perhaps better known for inside scoring, but they score in very different ways, with Ginobili using his quickness to beat defenders off the dribble, while Wells uses his strength to score inside. Both men are solid defensively, and their defensive strengths reflect their offensive strengths: Ginobili is a good perimeter defender, who is effective at denying penetration, whereas Wells is better at defending inside the paint. Wells is also a far superior rebounder.
Advantage: Push
Forwards: Two of the best man-to-man defenders in the league are matched up against each other at the small forward position. But, while Bruce Bowen and Ron Artest are both excellent defensively, Artest is clearly a more complete player offensively, and can score from inside and outside. Artest is most effective offensively when isolated against a defender down in the post, whereas Bowen’s primary contribution offensively is to capitalize on scoring opportunities created by his teammates, particularly Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. However, Artest’s superior offensive abilities occasionally works to the detriment of his team, as he has been known to disrupt the team’s offense with his at-times single-minded determination to score, whereas Bowen is the consummate teammate offensively, and will never disrupt his team’s offensive flow to get his own shot. Both men are intense defensively, and are highly effective at disrupting their defensive assignment without excessive fouling. Bowen is often of singular focus on defense, and will follow his defensive assignment wherever he goes, whereas Artest is a better help defender, who is highly effective at forcing steals. Artest is also a slightly better rebounder.
Tim Duncan set career lows in scoring, rebounding, blocked shots and field goal percentage this season, while playing through injuries. Nevertheless, he has a clear advantage over Kenny Thomas. Offensively, Duncan will be able to post up over the much shorter Thomas and score without impediment, and he will also be able to score easily outside the paint, where Thomas will not be able to prevent him from using his trademark bank shot. Thomas’ sole advantage will be in his ability to beat Duncan off the dribble, but even that may be negated by Duncan’s superior reach. Defensively, Duncan is a far superior rebounder and shot blocker, and will often dissuade offensive players from attacking the basket, whereas Thomas is largely ineffective at denying penetration inside the lane, or at blocking shots.
Advantage: Spurs
Centers: Neither Nazr Mohammed nor Brad Miller are particularly good rebounders at the center position, but Miller has a slight strength advantage, and averages a few more rebounds than his counterpart. Miller is far superior offensively, and has a range that extends out to the three-point line. He is also better at creating opportunites for his teammates, and is highly effective at passing out of the high post. Mohammed is rarely considered to be a scoring option, and usually scores only within the flow of the Spurs’ offense. Defensively, neither man is particularly effective at denying post position, but Mohammed’s athleticism makes him a better weak-side shot blocker.
Advantage: Kings
Bench: The strength of San Antonio’s bench is in their back court, as they are three deep at every position, including experienced veterans Nick Van Exel, Michael Finley and Brent Barry, all of whom have had big moments in the postseason. Their reserve frontcourt is much less imposing, consisting primarily of former starter Rasho Nesterovic and playoff legend Robert Horry. The two most dangerous players on San Antonio’s bench are clearly Horry and Van Exel, whose respective career postseason scoring averages exceed their career regular season scoring averages, and always seem to be able to make the big play in a timely manner come playoff time.
Sacramento’s reserves, by comparison, have virtually no playoff experience. In fact, Sacramento’s key reserves, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia will all be making their first playoff appearances. In fact, only Jason Hart, the seldom-used Corliss Williamson and the unused Vitaly Potapenko have any kind of playoff experience off the Kings bench.
Advantage: Spurs
Coaching: On paper, this matchup would appear to favor San Antonio, as Gregg Popovich (518-252, 69-41 postseason) is highly effective at motivating his team to play aggressive defense, and likes to control offensive possessions. Rick Adelman (752-481, 68-64 postseason), however, has historically been able to motivate the Kings to put forth a maximum effort in the playoffs; only twice in eight seasons have the Kings failed to force a series-deciding game in being eliminated from the playoffs, whereas the Spurs have only played in a series-deciding game twice in their last twenty-two playoff series. Under Adelman’s leadership, the Kings have been an effective offensive team, and have played defense with an intensity that exceeds their perceived limitations. However, Popovich is a meticulous game-planner, and is much better at getting his team to establish the tempo of the game.
Advantage: Spurs
Intangibles: The Kings have no pressure on them, and will very likely play free and loose, compared to the Spurs, who are expected to at least return to the Finals. Since the acquisition of Ron Artest, they play with an intensity that San Antonio has had little opportunity to play against. However, the Spurs are a vastly more experienced team, and are not likely to suc b to the pressure of the playoffs, at least not in the opening round. The Kings are also a poor road team, and home court advantage could very well be the deciding factor in this matchup.
Advantage: Spurs
Prediction: Spurs in 7
