1.9 million ICU admissions over two months.
320K free beds.
Assume hospitalization requirement is one week for urgent care.
1.9M people divided by eight weeks, implies a need of roughly 237,000 hospital beds. IF that 1.9M were infected at an even pace. IF "hospital bed" = 100% respirator and specialized care fore every hospital bed.
Neither of those "ifs" represent reality. The need for ventilator support will be one in five, per the graph. Not sure what the ratio of beds to support is right now, but my recent visit to the hospital last week didn't note that much equipment in the rooms. Probably some in storage, but that means at the peak, we will be facing the same problems as Italy, i.e. shortage of equipment.
Given bell shaped curves, let's assume that about 1/3 of the infections will occur simultaneously at the peak. 32,000,000 * .05 = Peak need around 1,600,000, or five times capacity.
Cases requiring ventilatory support is one percent, or 320,000. Assume that ratio of ventilators to beds is roughly 1:5. of these 320,000, there will only be 62,000 ventilators.
Assume lack of ventilator is 50% fatal. My gut says this figure is too low, but for the sake of walkthrough.
320000-62000= 256000 * .5 = 125000 extra deaths from shortage of equipment.
Given the recent superspreading event, going to guess the peak is going to be a bit taller.
The delays in testing, and delays in implementing measures due to the delays in testing will cause that peak to be higher than it would have been otherwise as virus spreads undetected.
Trump's incompetence can argued to cause at hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
already in Lombardy, a triage selecting against those very sick to let die and for those less sick saveable
The Capitalists who bought up old peoples' home for the (Medicare, Medicaid) cash flow are worried their old golden geese will die off
3,000 plus dead in Rico.
59 dead of Corona.
Will you move the goalpost when the number passes 3000?
Does not compute
1. Trump was put into office by Russia
2. Trump can coerce the entire nation of people who don't want him in office by saying "no big deal"
3. That drives everyone to act like idiots and flood stores as if the zombie apocalypse is upon us.
4. Congress, especially the left, was tied up for years on an impeachment witch hunt power move by the left that overlapped the virus introduction.
Is Pelosi handing out Coronavirus pens now?
You said Trump has handled this situation well.
He did
We didn't
Don't be jealous of 59, Dumps. It's unbecoming.
D M C
forever blameless
Did Trump make any false or misleading statements about this situation in the past six weeks?
You going to keep dissecting my responses to create the narrative you want? (speaking of false and misleading)
Did Trump make any false or misleading statements about this situation in the past six weeks?
I said
He did
We didn't
All politicians make false and misleading statements.
What statements did Trump make that led to people panicking?
Oh hey a fallacy
All the misleading statements made in the past two months then swerving into national emergency certainly contributed to the current panic.
Again, did Trump make any false or misleading statements about this situation in the past six weeks?
Not every politician did and only Trump is president.
Just answer. It's not a trick question.
Neat. Good catch.
Just trying to help the crazy old fella out
I bet 100s, or more, of Krugman's American "zombie companies" kept alive by low interest loans will now fail.
Last edited by boutons_deux; 03-15-2020 at 12:18 PM.
Give an example of a misleading statement that led to panic.
Of course he did. How did they lead to panic?Again, did Trump make any false or misleading statements about this situation in the past six weeks?
Interesting that everything he said about the Ukraine and Russia relationship was dismissed by the left but suddenly you expected him, a day out of impeachment turmoil, to steadily guide the nation? Maybe stop trying to back a coup and let the guy do his job. Otherwise you deserve what you get.Not every politician did and only Trump is president.
We saw even worse panicking after the 2016 election. Was that because of misleading statements by Trump?
I have answered and unlike you, I don't dissect your response to just things I think I can pin you down on, because unlike you I am an honest broker.
Just answer. It's not a trick question.
Trump clean
Trudeau, not so much
It's actually more murders than he listed but it's Chicago and mostly black on black crime so it cannot be a talking point.
It's called Reductio ad Blackium
Oh hey a fallacy
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