Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[baseline bum]

I'm giving all the caveats of not knowing the math behind the graphing or being an epidemiologist, but:

Day 1 (meaning 1 death).
Italy: Feb. 21
US: Feb. 29.

So they're 8 days ahead of us. As of March 8th (where Italy was compared to where we are today), Italy had 366 deaths. We've had 97. So they're over 3x worse from that vantage point.

I suspect you'll say that it's the day over day rise that shows how exponential we are compared to Italy, and the exponential rise is what matters.

Say X(t) = number of deaths at time t. Those are graphs of log X(t) which are nearly linear, eg log X(t) = at + b for some numbers a,b, so that X(t) = e^(at + b) = e^b e^(at). The US's "a" coefficient is larger than Italy's in that graph from deaths up until 3/12 in those those two graphs since a gives the slope of the graphs and the US's is steeper. Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down.

[vy65]

Say X(t) = number of deaths at time t. Those are graphs of log X(t) which are nearly linear, eg log X(t) = at + b for some numbers a,b, so that X(t) = e^(at + b) = e^b e^(at). The US's "a" coefficient is larger than Italy's in that graph from deaths up until 3/12 in those those two graphs since a gives the slope of the graphs and the US's is steeper. Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down.

You lost me at "Say X(t)"

[TimDunkem]

You lost me at "Say X(t)"

[redzero]

Chinese Virus is really bugging me. I lost $4000 in a blink of an eye.

[boutons_deux]

"Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down."

Repug pols and rightwinghatemedia are still downplaying the risk, so the gullibles who believe them, the entire Trash cult mob could end up being the vectors of infection into the rest of us who are scared less and truly "social distancing"

On nextdoor, I read a lot of msgs in SA from people who think Trash walks on water and has done a great job containing covid-19 while the Dems did nothing except the impeachment hoax. such mother ing idiot Repug sheeple now endanger us all

[spurraider21]

Chinese Virus is really bugging me. I lost $4000 in a blink of an eye.

[picnroll]

"Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down."

Repug pols and rightwinghatemedia are still downplaying the risk, so the gullibles who believe them, the entire Trash cult mob could end up being the vectors of infection into the rest of us who are scared less and truly "social distancing"

On nextdoor, I read a lot of msgs in SA from people who think Trash walks on water and has done a great job containing covid-19 while the Dems did nothing except the impeachment hoax. such mother ing idiot Repug sheeple now endanger us all

So fewer Trump voters. That’s probably what has him scared less now.

[RandomGuy]

Say X(t) = number of deaths at time t. Those are graphs of log X(t) which are nearly linear, eg log X(t) = at + b for some numbers a,b, so that X(t) = e^(at + b) = e^b e^(at). The US's "a" coefficient is larger than Italy's in that graph from deaths up until 3/12 in those those two graphs since a gives the slope of the graphs and the US's is steeper. Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down.

I actually understood that. Not sure that having a large part of the country say this is a hoax/hysteria is going to bring it "way" down.

[RandomGuy]

You lost me at "Say X(t)"

Log is just a way of putting exponential growth (a curved upwards line) into a straight line. the rise over run (steepness of line) just denotes a larger exponential growth.

"a coefficient" just being the mathematical expression of the slope.

[Blake]

from reddit:

January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

February 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”

February 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”

February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”

February 25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”

February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

February 26: “We're going very substantially down, not up.”

February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

February 28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”

February 28: “Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus, you know that, right? Coronavirus, they’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa.” “They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything. They tried it over and over. They’d been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning. They lost. It’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”

March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”

March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”

March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”

March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”

March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”

March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”

March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”

March 6: "You know, my uncle was a great person. He was at MIT. He taught at MIT for, I think, like a record number of years. He was a great super genius. Dr. John Trump. I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, 'How do you know so much about this? ' Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president."

March 6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”

March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”

March 9: “This blindsided the world.”

March 9: "The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant.”

March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

March 10: "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

March 13: National Emergency Declaration

March 13: “I don't take responsibility at all”

March 13: "For decades the @CDCgov looked at, and studied, its testing system, but did nothing about it. It would always be inadequate and slow for a large scale pandemic, but a pandemic would never happen, they hoped. President Obama made changes that only complicated things further"

March 14: "SOCIAL DISTANCING!"

March 15: "TODAY IS A NATIONAL DAY OF PRAYER. GOD BLESS EVERYONE!"

March 15: “This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”

March 16: “If you’re talking about the virus, no, that’s not under control for any place in the world. ... I was talking about what we’re doing is under control, but I’m not talking about the virus."

March 16: "I'd rate it a 10" (in response to how he rate his handling of the situation)

What's more unbelievable than that is the number of people that still believe his every word.

Or they excuse his performance because "Hillary wouldn't have done any better"

[RandomGuy]

So fewer Trump voters. That’s probably what has him scared less now.

"this could impact MY voters"

Sad that is where we are.

[Trill Clinton]

Say X(t) = number of deaths at time t. Those are graphs of log X(t) which are nearly linear, eg log X(t) = at + b for some numbers a,b, so that X(t) = e^(at + b) = e^b e^(at). The US's "a" coefficient is larger than Italy's in that graph from deaths up until 3/12 in those those two graphs since a gives the slope of the graphs and the US's is steeper. Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down.

[vy65]

Log is just a way of putting exponential growth (a curved upwards line) into a straight line. the rise over run (steepness of line) just denotes a larger exponential growth.

"a coefficient" just being the mathematical expression of the slope.

Thanks (I'm not a re , I swear).

[boutons_deux]

What's more unbelievable than that is the number of people that still believe his every word.

Or they excuse his performance because "Hillary wouldn't have done any better"

that's as scary as the virus itself

these people who "Devin Nunes" the virus will function as vectors of infection for all the people who are scared less

Repugs and rightwinghatemedia STILL downplaying the virus.

10Ms of their ignorant demograhpic believe that

That demographic is 65+ years old and prime killing ground for the virus, as was reported from China.

[boutons_deux]

All the airlines bankrupt by end of May.

[boutons_deux]

covid-19 and its aftermath will make 9/11 look like slipping on a banana

[RandomGuy]

Agreed. The response to this has been clearly and deeply ed.

One other thing I forgot to mention is that we're entering spring and some experts say that the warm weather will slow down virus spread. So you can thank global warming for that ...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...nt-bank-summer

They haven't really figured out if that is the case yet. Not even going to guess at this point, given the conflicting science.

[picnroll]

Log is just a way of putting exponential growth (a curved upwards line) into a straight line. the rise over run (steepness of line) just denotes a larger exponential growth.

"a coefficient" just being the mathematical expression of the slope.

Missing piece I believe is what are the testing criteria in the two populations. Same? Different? If different how does that influence the results.

[Reck]

Amazon is partially shutting down their warehouses. Will only ship the essentials.

[RandomGuy]

Thanks (I'm not a re , I swear).

Never took you for one. Math isn't everybody's forte.

[RandomGuy]

I'm giving all the caveats of not knowing the math behind the graphing or being an epidemiologist, but:

Day 1 (meaning 1 death).
Italy: Feb. 21
US: Feb. 29.

So they're 8 days ahead of us. As of March 8th (where Italy was compared to where we are today), Italy had 366 deaths. We've had 97. So they're over 3x worse from that vantage point.

I suspect you'll say that it's the day over day rise that shows how exponential we are compared to Italy, and the exponential rise is what matters.

Hmm.

Not sure you can exactly compare the number of deaths, given the relative populations. A lot of factors go into morbidity, such as age as well. Italy is a bit older all things considered, than the US. If their slope is lower, that would imply ours is currently on a very dangerous trajectory. yikes.

Wait until this hits Britain, where the response has been... nothing yet. Seriously. Johnson is ing up worse than Trump.

[RandomGuy]

Missing piece I believe is what are the testing criteria in the two populations. Same? Different? If different how does that influence the results.

That's the scary part. We can't really know. The testing isn't really ramped up even now. They will get that way in a couple of weeks.

Two more weeks for this thing to spread undetected in most places in the US.

We can't really trust the overall "reported cases" numbers. They are vastly too low, in all likelihood.

We can probably more closely trust the "death" numbers, because deaths are almost certainly tested. Those figures are a lot more accurate.

Given that our deaths are increasing faster than Italy's, this strongly implies our infection rate is a lot faster. we have slightly more hospital beds per capita, but I don't think that will make a spits worth of difference.

[picnroll]

That's the scary part. We can't really know. The testing isn't really ramped up even now. They will get that way in a couple of weeks.

Two more weeks for this thing to spread undetected in most places in the US.

We can't really trust the overall "reported cases" numbers. They are vastly too low, in all likelihood.

We can probably more closely trust the "death" numbers, because deaths are almost certainly tested. Those figures are a lot more accurate.

Given that our deaths are increasing faster than Italy's, this strongly implies our infection rate is a lot faster. we have slightly more hospital beds per capita, but I don't think that will make a spits worth of difference.

Testing capability at this time is way less than we’ve been led to believe. Even for healthcare workers getting tested involves jumping through hoops

[baseline bum]

Amazon is partially shutting down their warehouses. Will only ship the essentials.

8 weeks? That's fantasy talk. We're not getting past this in 8 weeks. Maybe 8 months.

[Splits]

We can probably more closely trust the "death" numbers, because deaths are almost certainly tested.

Are you sure? Maybe once the tests are/will be readily available. But over the past weeks?