Looking at how flu case frequency correlates with Corvid case frequency in our most populus states.

[midnightpulp]

(confirmed cases from the 2018-19 flu season and confirmed Corvid cases):

New York: 107,805, Current Covid-19 cases: 12,324, Tests performed: 45,000

Texas: 31,296, Covid-19: 559, Tests performed: 6500. Prorated case number if Texas tested 45000: 3879

California: 19,590, Covid-19: 1519, Tests performed: 12500. Prorated Corvid case number: 5361

Confirmed prorated Corvid cases relative to population:

NY: .00063 per 1000 people
TX: .00013/1000
CA: .00014/1000

So New York's frequency of Corvid cases is about 4.2x higher than Texas and California together. Let's see how that correlates to the flu's frequency.

NY: .0055/1000
TX: .0010/1000
CA: .0005/1000

New York's flu frequency is about 7.5x higher than both together.

The correlations aren't perfect, but "Corvid season" isn't over yet, and each state saw their own "patient zeroes" pop up at different times.

First confirmed cases: NY: 3/1, TX: 3/4, CA: 1/26.

California's first case showed up about a month-and-half before Texas and New York, which explains why California's Corvid case number is higher than Texas's, while their flu case number is lower. In addition, California has more Chinese immigrants coming to-and-from LA (two from Wuhan were patient zeros in the city) and San Francisco vs. Texas. And yet, well before Corona hysteria gripped the nation, before Newson locked down the state, during a time when Trump was handwaving away the virus as nothing but a flu, the virus didn't spread like wildfire in the country's most populous state (and those were the perfect conditions for it do so). I expect the same slow rate of progression to happen in Texas.

This virus isn't "magical" and pretty much spreads like the flu. I think the R0 (1 person is expected to infect 2.3 persons, vs. the 1/1.3 ratio of the flu) has been a bit inflated because that number was extrapolated from Wuhan, a much more densely populated city, uses mass transit, etc.

And from this, we see another reason why Corvid spread has been rather slow in states with 40 and 30 million people vs. what is happening in New York:



The green bands is the temps Corvid (or any virus) likes the most. Texas is warming up, as is most of California aside from northern California, which not incidentally has been the hardest hit region in the state.

Not to mention California and Texas have lower population density and don't use mass transit to anywhere the same level.

I'm writing this to assuage fears that the California and Texas are "destined" to become the next New Yorks because they are also states with millions and millions of people. This is good news because it means resources won't be strained nearly as much in these states, meaning more resources to spread around the country's most hardest hit regions. The "doom and gloomers" often make 1 to 1 comparison between states and countries when the variables aren't the same, making projections based on what happened in Wuhan, Italy, etc.

, we even have a "worse case scenario" example with the Diamond Princess cruise line.

The Diamond Princess was the worst case scenario, according to Levitt. “If you compare the ship to a country—we are talking 250,000 people crowded into one square kilometer, which is horribly crowded. It is four times the crowding in Hong Kong. It is as if the entire Isaeli population was crammed into 30 square kilometers.” Furthermore, he said, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system and a communal dining room. “Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu.”

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/a...800632,00.html

Oh, forgot about Florida, which is actually the 3rd most populous state. Yeah, Corvid frequency is low there, too. 763 confirmed and over 8000 tested. Let's look at Florida's flu rate real quick. Couldn't find a total case count for Florida, but they're well below the national average in flu/pneumonia related deaths: https://www.livestories.com/statisti...aths-mortality

CA is at about the national average, and Texas is a click below. So Florida shouldn't get hit hard, all things considered.

I'm obviously not an epidemiologist nor statistician, just piecing together the work of those epidemiologists and statisticians with logic, which seems to imply the US isn't going to become the next Italy, as the doom and gloom media wants us to believe. It's also encouraging, because California, Texas, and Florida should be able to flatten the curve relatively quickly, which means we won't have to fight the virus on multiple fronts and can potentially aid NY in the coming weeks. It also means life should return to some semblance of normal in states with the largest economies (as what has happened in South Korea after they "flattened"), which will hopefully perk up the national economy.


Sources:
https://covidtracking.com/data/
https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/c...flu_report.pdf
https://www.dshs.texas.gov/flu/surveillance.aspx
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID...ual2018-19.pdf

[vy65]

solid post. This subject was hit on in the main thread. Of note is how Italy, South Korea, SF, and NYC fall squarely within the band. Also, while I haven’t seen them in a few days, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam’s numbers were quite low. These countries didn’t have the infrastructure of Singapore and so I think lend a better example of what to expect in hotter climates.

It’s not just heat, but humidity. The virus doesn’t interact well with water vapor. I’m hoping that adds a further layer of protection in places like South Texas and Florida.

[SnakeBoy]

Thanks for the excellent post

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

is the confirmed covid numbers the result of actual covid numbers or actual covid testing? hard to say with any certainty how much or little covid there is (outside s korea) bc testing has been so meager

[midnightpulp]

is the confirmed covid numbers the result of actual covid numbers or actual covid testing? hard to say with any certainty how much or little covid there is (outside s korea) bc testing has been so meager

Just testing. My intuition tells me this virus is probably 5x-10x more prevalent, with many mild cases going unreported. And many states and countries are only testing people with obvious systems. This fact overstates the virus's lethality.

[vy65]

Just testing. My intuition tells me this virus is probably 5x-10x more prevalent, with many mild cases going unreported. And many states and countries are only testing people with obvious systems. This fact overstates the virus's lethality.

I agree with you, but devil’s advocate: how do you know that coronavirus caused deaths aren’t being underreported? Germany has come right out and said they don’t test the dead.

[midnightpulp]

solid post. This subject was hit on in the main thread. Of note is how Italy, South Korea, SF, and NYC fall squarely within the band. Also, while I haven’t seen them in a few days, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam’s numbers were quite low. These countries didn’t have the infrastructure of Singapore and so I think lend a better example of what to expect in hotter climates.

It’s not just heat, but humidity. The virus doesn’t interact well with water vapor. I’m hoping that adds a further layer of protection in places like South Texas and Florida.

Kind of funny how the media is just Italy, Italy, Italy and doesn't balance the coverage by looking at Singapore. They've had under 500 cases and only 2 deaths, despite being the 3rd most densely populated country in the world. They're an international business hub, had their first case in January, and yet the virus didn't sweep the country. And they didn't lock down the country or anything. Compelling case that shows this virus doesn't like warmth and humidity. Australia, as well. First death 20 days ago. Only 7 currently. Italy's deaths went from 1 to 827 in 20 days. Australia has 25 million people vs. Italy's 60 million, so accounting for per capita, Italy saw their death rate climb 350x vs. Australia's 7x.

[Thread]

Just testing. My intuition tells me this virus is probably 5x-10x more prevalent, with many mild cases going unreported. And many states and countries are only testing people with obvious systems. This fact overstates the virus's lethality.

...Florida spring breakers withstanding. Quite a few are in in their '70's & '80's.

[midnightpulp]

I agree with you, but devil’s advocate: how do you know that coronavirus caused deaths aren’t being underreported? Germany has come right out and said they don’t test the dead.

I'm sure that's happening, but I would guess there's probably many more underreported cases than deaths. We can only guess the factor, though. Hopefully it'll be something around 200 to 1.

[SnakeBoy]

Just testing. My intuition tells me this virus is probably 5x-10x more prevalent, with many mild cases going unreported. And many states and countries are only testing people with obvious systems. This fact overstates the virus's lethality.

I think so too. South Korea is held as the model for testing (rightfully) but still as of yesterday they have tested .4% of the population so a great number must be getting missed.

[vy65]

Kind of funny how the media is just Italy, Italy, Italy and doesn't balance the coverage by looking at Singapore. They've had under 500 cases and only 2 deaths, despite being the 3rd most densely populated country in the world. They're an international business hub, had their first case in January, and yet the virus didn't sweep the country. And they didn't lock down the country or anything. Compelling case that shows this virus doesn't like warmth and humidity. Australia, as well. First death 20 days ago. Only 7 currently. Italy's deaths went from 1 to 827 in 20 days. Australia has 25 million people vs. Italy's 60 million, so accounting for per capita, Italy saw their death rate climb 350x vs. Australia's 7x.

I thought the same as you, but Singapore’s precautions and readiness for this make South Korea look like The UK

[vy65]

I'm sure that's happening, but I would guess there's probably many more underreported cases than deaths. We can only guess the factor, though. Hopefully it'll be something around 200 to 1.

This sort of how I rationalize it: we’re not hearing a 1-3% increase in deaths nationwide - something you’d expect to see if deaths weren’t being tested. So even if there is underreporting of deaths, it’s nowhere near the anticipated death rate

[midnightpulp]

I thought the same as you, but Singapore’s precautions and readiness for this make South Korea look like The UK

No disagreement on their preparedness being a factor, but I also think the Singapore situation also illustrates that this virus is unlikely to sweep through climates not conducive to it. As a counterpoint to Singapore, Australia was still filling their beaches like 3 days ago, and the virus hasn't taken off. But what's obviously helping Australia is their low population density. Italy is like the perfect host for the virus. UK, too. I fear what their situation is going to look like in a week.

[Splits]

Great post Mid, but curious why you didn't look into India which is over a sixth of global population, extremely dense, ty services, disgusting hygiene, etc an are basically unscathed at this point.

[midnightpulp]

Great post Mid, but curious why you didn't look into India which is over a sixth of global population, extremely dense, ty services, disgusting hygiene, etc an are basically unscathed at this point.

Forgot about them.

I'm sure there's some underreporting going on, but we'd know if India were in chaos. Doesn't seem to be the case. 400 cases, 7 deaths.

[vy65]

No disagreement on their preparedness being a factor, but I also think the Singapore situation also illustrates that this virus is unlikely to sweep through climates not conducive to it. As a counterpoint to Singapore, Australia was still filling their beaches like 3 days ago, and the virus hasn't taken off. But what's obviously helping Australia is their low population density. Italy is like the perfect host for the virus. UK, too. I fear what their situation is going to look like in a week.

Agreed

[vy65]

India also had a high level of precautions too. I think they down flights from Wuhan early on.

[midnightpulp]

India also had a high level of precautions too. I think they down flights from Wuhan early on.

I think we're a good case study of a state that was lax until the hysteria began. Two Patient Zeros arrived Jan. 26th in LA. Didn't register much of a blip in the media. Sporting events were still packed, the local Casinos jammed (and local casinos are teeming with Asians), bars, clubs, restaurants full. And the virus didn't propagate much, only a bit in San Fran, which is a better environment for it. I think if this virus had the legs as perceived, California would've been swamped by March 1st. Seems it takes a good month for it to ramp up (New York had its patient zero on March 1st).

So yeah, just lending credence to the climate hypothesis, and we're not even optimal in that regard yet, but we will be soon and it'll last to about October. We don't even get winter or even really a fall anymore here. It's like Spring/Summer all year around, parts of Northern and Central Cali aside.

[vy65]

I think we're a good case study of a state that was lax until the hysteria began. Two Patient Zeros arrived Jan. 26th in LA. Didn't register much of a blip in the media. Sporting events were still packed, the local Casinos jammed (and local casinos are teeming with Asians), bars, clubs, restaurants full. And the virus didn't propagate much, only a bit in San Fran, which is a better environment for it. I think if this virus had the legs as perceived, California would've been swamped by March 1st. Seems it takes a good month for it to ramp up (New York had its patient zero on March 1st).

So yeah, just lending credence to the climate hypothesis, and we're not even optimal in that regard yet, but we will be soon and it'll last to about October. We don't even get winter or even really a fall anymore here. It's like Spring/Summer all year around, parts of Northern and Central Cali aside.

To your point, the diamond princess is perhaps the best reason for optimism. More so than the coming summer. You had a great opportunity for viral spread amongst a really susceptible population. Lax hygiene, central air, and the demographics of your typical cruise line vacationer. Even under those cir stances, you only had only 5% propagation

[vy65]

While I normally hate Houston’s weather, I’m pretty pumped for 90 and humid starting next week ...

[RandomGuy]

Just testing. My intuition tells me this virus is probably 5x-10x more prevalent, with many mild cases going unreported. And many states and countries are only testing people with obvious systems. This fact overstates the virus's lethality.

Eyup.

But also means that it will spread a lot farther than it might otherwise.

[Winehole23]

solid post. This subject was hit on in the main thread. Of note is how Italy, South Korea, SF, and NYC fall squarely within the band. Also, while I haven’t seen them in a few days, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam’s numbers were quite low. These countries didn’t have the infrastructure of Singapore and so I think lend a better example of what to expect in hotter climates.

It’s not just heat, but humidity. The virus doesn’t interact well with water vapor. I’m hoping that adds a further layer of protection in places like South Texas and Florida.

There's also the fact that SE Asia was hit hard by SARS and MERS. Singapore, Laos and Vietnam were likely better prepared than we are as a result.

[midnightpulp]

There's also the fact that SE Asia was hit hard by SARS and MERS. Singapore, Laos and Vietnam were likely better prepared than we are as a result.

Australia was grossly underprepared and their case progression is similar to Singapore's. Not trying to suggest that Singapore should've done nothing and just relied on their climate. As you said, they were prepared and probably figure with their population density, the virus has a stronger chance of transmission. Australia was saved by their low pop. density.

[Winehole23]

Australia was grossly underprepared and their case progression is similar to Singapore's. Not trying to suggest that Singapore should've done nothing and just relied on their climate. As you said, they were prepared and probably figure with their population density, the virus has a stronger chance of transmission. Australia was saved by their low pop. density.

If by saved, you mean saved from a worse result, then yeah.

Australia's winter is coming up soon. When ours comes around we'll get another round of COVID-19. It's doubtful there will be an effective, universal vaccine/treatment by then.

[spurraider21]

covid, not corvid