Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[midnightpulp]

Based on what? IMHE models keep getting revised downward.

That model has a range. The 60K projected is just the median bound. The upper-bound is 130K. I think we'll be nearer to the upper bound based on the trends of how this virus seems to ride its plateau. Check out Italy. They hit 793 deaths on March 21st (their first big peak). Nearly a month later, they're still reporting daily deaths in excess of 500, about a 30 percent decrease. And they've collectively locked down harder than us.

Even if we average a 40 percent drop in daily deaths from here on out over the next 30 days, that'll put us at 80K deaths. And deaths just won't flatline to zero. It'll be a gradual descent. So over this month long gradual descent, we could easily see another 20K deaths.

The only factor that could keep us under 100K is if the New York situation "burns itself out" because we vastly underestimated the true case rate count. If it's by something like a factor of 50, that means 10 million have already been infected in NY, and hopefully many of those cases were mild. In this case, the virus will obviously have fewer "virgins" to infect and the death rate should fall like a rock.

[boutons_deux]

US intel on threat of coronavirus shared with Israel and NATO in November: report

"The US knew":

Report says American intel on the threat of coronavirus was dismissed by President Trump

he smoking gun has arrived."

An Israeli news report on Thursday revealed that

the country was told in November by U.S. intelligence about the potential threat of the coronavirus—

warnings that were also made to NATO and to the White House—

a clear contradiction of Pentagon claims last week that no such report existed.

"The smoking gun has arrived," tweeted Joel Rubin, a former aide to the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The information reportedly came from U.S. intelligence monitoring of internal Chinese communications that revealed the potential danger of the outbreak before it was publicly known.

The Times of Israel reported that U.S. intelligence agencies were aware of the disease as early as the second week of November

and shared the information with President Donald Trump's White House, NATO, and Israel.

"The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images.

It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia—forces that depend on the NCMI's work.

And it paints a picture of an American government that

could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts

far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home."

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/17/us-...eport_partner/

Of course, Trash's Esperanto toadie would make sure the DoD would not agree to information that makes Trash looks even worse.

[midnightpulp]

Which media outlets are "on the path"?

Pure facts with no editorialization or "opinion."

[Reck]

That model has a range. The 60K projected is just the median bound. The upper-bound is 130K. I think we'll be nearer to the upper bound based on the trends of how this virus seems to ride its plateau. Check out Italy. They hit 793 deaths on March 21st (their first big peak). Nearly a month later, they're still reporting daily deaths in excess of 500, about a 30 percent decrease. And they've collectively locked down harder than us.

Even if we average a 40 percent drop in daily deaths from here on out over the next 30 days, that'll put us at 80K deaths. And deaths just won't flatline to zero. It'll be a gradual descent. So over this month long gradual descent, we could easily see another 20K deaths.

The only factor that could keep us under 100K is if the New York situation "burns itself out" because we vastly underestimated the true case rate count. If it's by something like a factor of 50, that means 10 million have already been infected in NY, and hopefully many of those cases were mild. In this case, the virus will obviously have fewer "virgins" to infect and the death rate should fall like a rock.

LOL to whoever thinks we'll only get roughly 15k more death from now til August. That new model is BS.

At the clip we're going, we'll add 15k in probably 3 weeks.

[apalisoc_9]

we've had like 10 cases in total the last 5 days

And the province just announced a mandatory self quarantine for anyone doing interprovincial travel. Travel to northern areas has been banned and travil to outside of province by manitobans is also banned.

Alhamdulilah I leave in a good country.

Prime Minister Trudeau also doing work in Canada.

I don't qualify for any because I'm getting paid, but still that 2k a month benefit for unemployed canadians is huge and was announced very early.

[ducks]

https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...c2&oe=5EBFE2DD

Truth bomb

[baseline bum]

That model has a range. The 60K projected is just the median bound. The upper-bound is 130K. I think we'll be nearer to the upper bound based on the trends of how this virus seems to ride its plateau. Check out Italy. They hit 793 deaths on March 21st (their first big peak). Nearly a month later, they're still reporting daily deaths in excess of 500, about a 30 percent decrease. And they've collectively locked down harder than us.

Even if we average a 40 percent drop in daily deaths from here on out over the next 30 days, that'll put us at 80K deaths. And deaths just won't flatline to zero. It'll be a gradual descent. So over this month long gradual descent, we could easily see another 20K deaths.

The only factor that could keep us under 100K is if the New York situation "burns itself out" because we vastly underestimated the true case rate count. If it's by something like a factor of 50, that means 10 million have already been infected in NY, and hopefully many of those cases were mild. In this case, the virus will obviously have fewer "virgins" to infect and the death rate should fall like a rock.

Our hospitals are in much better shape right now than their's though. At least better than their's were when they were peaking. I don't know if they're still denying ventilators to people over 60.

[apalisoc_9]

Prime Minsiter Trudeau >>>>>>> TRUMP.

No wonder why prime minister was making fun of trump a few months ago. Dude was probably mocking his stupidity

[DarrinS]

That model has a range. The 60K projected is just the median bound. The upper-bound is 130K. I think we'll be nearer to the upper bound based on the trends of how this virus seems to ride its plateau. Check out Italy. They hit 793 deaths on March 21st (their first big peak). Nearly a month later, they're still reporting daily deaths in excess of 500, about a 30 percent decrease. And they've collectively locked down harder than us.

Even if we average a 40 percent drop in daily deaths from here on out over the next 30 days, that'll put us at 80K deaths. And deaths just won't flatline to zero. It'll be a gradual descent. So over this month long gradual descent, we could easily see another 20K deaths.

The only factor that could keep us under 100K is if the New York situation "burns itself out" because we vastly underestimated the true case rate count. If it's by something like a factor of 50, that means 10 million have already been infected in NY, and hopefully many of those cases were mild. In this case, the virus will obviously have fewer "virgins" to infect and the death rate should fall like a rock.

We're at 30k and around the peak. Unless the curve is highly asymmetrical, I don't see how we get to 130k.

[TimDunkem]

Darrin thinks we'll be the only country in the world that won't have peaks and valleys during the pandemic. It's going to be one, nice, symmetrical curve for sure. Definitely one big drop off soon - no plateauing. Mhmm!

[midnightpulp]

https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...c2&oe=5EBFE2DD

Truth bomb

Don't know why republicans are bringing border security into this? It was travelling American citizens or Chinese tourists who brought the virus into the country. In other worlds, "LEGAL" travelers.

And Dear Leader's actions against China were toothless. If you don't tariff a big corporation like Apple, you're just paying lip service. Apple was EXEMPT. So all Trump's tariffs really did was hurt small business owners.

[MannyIsGod]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...1#post10122850

Why didn't you post the full original post instead of taking the part you wanted to take out of context? I mean its not much more, why did you leave it out?

Because you're a dishonest who's not interested in an actual discussion but rather just spewing nonsense.

Sad.

[DarrinS]

Darrin thinks we'll be the only country in the world that won't have peaks and valleys during the pandemic. It's going to be one, nice, symmetrical curve for sure. Definitely one big drop off soon - no plateauing. Mhmm!

Uhhh, ok

[TimDunkem]

Uhhh, ok

You realize there will be more than one peak, right? You know these things happen in waves, right?

[GAustex]

Which media outlets are "on the path"?

None of the cable news channels

[DarrinS]

You realize there will be more than one peak, right? You know these things happen in waves, right?

We aren't going to be oblivious, like we were in February and half of March.

[Chris]

Pure facts with no editorialization or "opinion."

None of the cable news channels

two non-answers

cool...

[Reck]

We aren't going to be oblivious, like we were in February and half of March.

That's the point. Because we acted too late it's why we're not done with this.

I like your positivity but you're edging too close to delusional territory.

[phxspurfan]

Covid flu?

0.1% death rate with 50x the number of people having it, and it having been in the country for at least 2 months before we recorded a case?

antibody test results in silicon valley say, maybe. Lots of people didn't know they ever got it, and by extrapolation, it could be 50x the # of detected, tested cases.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/healt...udy/index.html

[boutons_deux]

90% of US COVID-19 deaths may have been prevented if social distancing began sooner: epidemiologists

If social distancing policies gone into effect two weeks earlier, many more would have been saved

The U.S. recorded its first thousand COVID-19 deaths between Feb. 26 and March 26.

It has reported more than 34,000 since then, or the equivalent of nearly a dozen 9/11 attacks in the span of three weeks.

epidemiologists estimated that 90% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. might have been prevented if social distancing policies went into effect two weeks earlier.

If the policies were in place even one week earlier, on March 9, deaths could have been reduced by up to 60 percent, the the experts said.

the virus' logarithmic spread works both ways: possible exponential growth but also possible exponential reduction.

Kentucky issued social distancing policies March 26, but Tennessee waited until March 31.

As of last Friday, Kentucky had 1,693 confirmed cases (379 per million population) and Tennessee had 4,862 (712 per million).

some CEOs on Trump's newly-announced economic council said they had not yet been briefed on any plan to reopen the economy.

experts say testing capacity must double or triple before the country can safely begin to relax social distancing guidelines.

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/17/90-...idemiologists/

[midnightpulp]

two non-answers

cool...

Not an non-answer, Chris. All news outlets have biases and take facts out of context to suit their politics. You can bypass this slant yourself by just looking at the facts yourself and forming your own conclusions. You don't need CNN man or FOX man to tell you what to think.

[Chris]

Not an non-answer, Chris. All news outlets have biases and take facts out of context to suit their politics. You can bypass this slant yourself by just looking at the facts yourself and forming your own conclusions. You don't need CNN man or FOX man to tell you what to think.

I don't watch either.

Just getting real tired of the ad hominem when no one can back it up.

[TimDunkem]

Covid flu?

0.1% death rate with 50x the number of people having it, and it having been in the country for at least 2 months before we recorded a case?

antibody test results in silicon valley say, maybe. Lots of people didn't know they ever got it, and by extrapolation, it could be 50x the # of detected, tested cases.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/healt...udy/index.html

Maybe in Queens or New Orleans. Most places have been locked down too long to have that kind of rate. Many are likely still vulnerable.

[midnightpulp]

We're at 30k and around the peak. Unless the curve is highly asymmetrical. I don't see how we get to 130k.

Another problem with the Murray Model is that it basically stops counting at June 1st. I don't see how it's possible we'll be at 8 deaths per day by June? That's why I expect a lengthy gradual descent until August.

Keep in mind, I'm not "doomsdaying." 100K deaths over our first wave is actually "not bad" considering all the bungling early on. The early projections from the likes of Imperial College were forecasting a lot more deaths. And Fauci even put the number at 200K a couple of weeks ago.

[pgardn]

Which media outlets are "on the path"?

All writing and not editorials I'll take

NY Times
WSJ
Wa Po
The Guardian
Der Spiegel
The Economist

So I got a list of 6

Give me your 6...
I dare you.

Left leaning NY Times, WSJ, The Guardian
Middle Der Spiegel,
Further Right WSJ The Economist