Will Unemployment and Economic Shut Downs Kill More than Covid-19?

[ChumpDumper]

Says who ?
The great chump and liberal media
Lol

Sorry dude, your boy ed up.

[ChumpDumper]

dupe.

[ducks]

Sorry dude, your boy ed up.

Says who?
Why the does chump run for president
Oh that is right he is a dupe

[ChumpDumper]

Says who?
Why the does chump run for president

I know I'd suck at it.

Trump should have known how much he'd suck too.

[Winehole23]

If I had the answer I wouldn’t have posed the question. And what the does this have to with right wing Twitter when articles in the thread are from Reuters, NYT, and the Guardian?

Ah yes, just asking questions.

Carry on sea lion.

[midnightpulp]

I've seen this guy's tweets, too. Another Liber ian trying to cherry pick data and making magical thinking arguments in order to urge a reopening. Let's breakdown the common arguments:

"The number of suicides from economic hardship will exceed the number of Covid deaths!"

There were 45 thousand suicides in 2016. Covid is on pace to claim 100-150K deaths just during the first wave. Even during the Great Depression, the suicide rate only increased 25%. Do the math, and it would take about 12 years at that rate for a suicide rate increase correlated to Covid to exceed Covid's first wave death toll.
The people we might lose to suicide brought on by the pandemic might be offset by the potential car accident deaths we prevent. https://www.latimes.com/environment/...idents-by-half

"All the people who will die not choosing to have to elective surgeries right now."

No one can know what this number is, and states (like California) that have controlled their outbreak relatively well are allowing elective surgeries already. https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramen...itals-can.html

"Pandemic will cause millions to starve due to the shutdown."

The linked Reuters article never claimed the economic toll was primary due to the shutdown. Pandemics cause economic tolls all their own, with or without shutdowns. Pandemics naturally shut down the economy anyway. Even the favorite Sweden example shows reduced commerce not that much different from regions under mandatory stay-at-home orders. So I'm not sure what the reopeners expect? You're not just going to flip the switch and generate enough economic activity that will lead to recovery for those business already on the brink.

I don't know why anyone isn't talking about the actual solution? A larger safety net. During World War II, we taxed every dollar made over 200K at 96% to fund the war effort. And the "1 percent" were happy to do it because back then, even the uber-rich had pride in the country, unlike today's oligarchs who only pledge allegiance to their bank accounts and shareholders. This is a war effort, and the money has to come from somewhere. People shouldn't forced back into their barber or bartending job and risk health just to pay the rent during a pandemic. But we can't do this because it would be "evil socialism."

That said, I'm okay with a regional reopening. Places like Utah, Wyoming, and even Texas can try them soon. East Coast is going to have to be on lockdown for awhile, and the East Coast drives a great deal of our economy. California is doing well, but not well enough yet to reopen at large.

[DMC]

Testing and contact tracing... but yes, testing is super vital. It provides the actual data to make such decisions.

We lack the privacy invasion to do real contact tracing. Everything would only be what they recall or are willing to recall. Not nearly as effective as a billion cameras, face recognition, phone tracing, bamboo under the nails, etc...

[ChumpDumper]

We lack the privacy invasion to do real contact tracing. Everything would only be what they recall or are willing to recall. Not nearly as effective as a billion cameras, face recognition, phone tracing, bamboo under the nails, etc...

Eh, most people don't realize they're location history is being recorded on their phones all the time. Seems like half the battle right there.

[DMC]

I've seen this guy's tweets, too. Another Liber ian trying to cherry pick data and making magical thinking arguments in order to urge a reopening. Let's breakdown the common arguments:

"The number of suicides from economic hardship will exceed the number of Covid deaths!"

There were 45 thousand suicides in 2016. Covid is on pace to claim 100-150K deaths just during the first wave. Even during the Great Depression, the suicide rate only increased 25%. Do the math, and it would take about 12 years at that rate for a suicide rate increase correlated to Covid to exceed Covid's first wave death toll.
The people we might lose to suicide brought on by the pandemic might be offset by the potential car accident deaths we prevent. https://www.latimes.com/environment/...idents-by-half

The intestinal for ude of today's average American male is nowhere near where it was during the depression. Suicide is a more popular exit these days but I think suicide is a "freedom to choose" issue, just like abortion only it's just your life.

"All the people who will die not choosing to have to elective surgeries right now."

No one can know what this number is, and states (like California) that have controlled their outbreak relatively well are allowing elective surgeries already. https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramen...itals-can.html

It's not really about not choosing - maybe some. Elective surgeries have been but on indefinite hold. These include things like colonoscopies that are preventive measures. Oddly my PCP still wants me to come to their office, call so they can let me in to charge me for an office visit to say "so how have you been?".

no

"Pandemic will cause millions to starve due to the shutdown."

The linked Reuters article never claimed the economic toll was primary due to the shutdown. Pandemics cause economic tolls all their own, with or without shutdowns. Pandemics naturally shut down the economy anyway. Even the favorite Sweden example shows reduced commerce not that much different from regions under mandatory stay-at-home orders. So I'm not sure what the reopeners expect? You're not just going to flip the switch and generate enough economic activity that will lead to recovery for those business already on the brink.

I don't know why anyone isn't talking about the actual solution? A larger safety net. During World War II, we taxed every dollar made over 200K at 96% to fund the war effort. And the "1 percent" were happy to do it because back then, even the uber-rich had pride in the country, unlike today's oligarchs who only pledge allegiance to their bank accounts and shareholders. This is a war effort, and the money has to come from somewhere. People shouldn't forced back into their barber or bartending job and risk health just to pay the rent during a pandemic. But we can't do this because it would be "evil socialism."

That said, I'm okay with a regional reopening. Places like Utah, Wyoming, and even Texas can try them soon. East Coast is going to have to be on lockdown for awhile, and the East Coast drives a great deal of our economy. California is doing well, but not well enough yet to reopen at large.

the uber-rich had no more pride than they do today. That's all revisionist history written by the history revisers. They were so patriotic then, and prisoners are actually swashbuckling pirates who frown on child molestation even though half of them are being raped by the other half.

Just to play devil's advocate.

[DMC]

Eh, most people don't realize they're location history is being recorded on their phones all the time. Seems like half the battle right there.

Take some of these out of work folks and form teams of contact tracers with phones and notebooks. I'm thinking 500K of them. I don't think the authorities have the manpower to handle that many people and their exponential branches of contacts.

[ChumpDumper]

Take some of these out of work folks and form teams of contact tracers with phones and notebooks. I'm thinking 500K of them. I don't think the authorities have the manpower to handle that many people and their exponential branches of contacts.

Gonna have to do something like that eventually it seems.

[ElNono]

We lack the privacy invasion to do real contact tracing. Everything would only be what they recall or are willing to recall. Not nearly as effective as a billion cameras, face recognition, phone tracing, bamboo under the nails, etc...

The system I've seen proposed by Google/Apple sounds both privacy conscious and effective. You don't need to know who the person infected with COVID was, just that you were in contact with them recently.

[ElNono]

Specs here:
https://www.apple.com/covid19/contacttracing

[hater]

tbqh suiciding ppl would have suicided sooner or later or killed other ppl or just being a drag on society

dont get me wrong its a real problem but I dont think ir would kill even close to epidemic #s.

the virus will do damage eother way tbqh

[Winehole23]

The laser focus on mortality misses the point. Being unemployed doesn't cause temporary and permanent physical disabilities. In many cases, COVID-19 does.

There are strong economic reasons besides excess death for aggressive mitigation.

[midnightpulp]

The laser focus on mortality misses the point. Being unemployed doesn't cause temporary and permanent physical disabilities. In many cases, COVID-19 does. r

There are strong economic reasons besides excess death for aggressive mitigation.

Yep. And also, this virus comes with a suite of more severe symptoms than the flu. Even "mild" cases are reporting it's the worst they've ever felt in their lives. SnakeBoy in' collapsed. We're cool with going out and risking getting the flu because it's a known. If we get it, we know what to expect. We don't know how our bodies will react to this. Even if we don't die, risking battling a week long fever, worst body aches you ever felt, a persistent dry cough, and maybe shortness of breath isn't worth it to go get a haircut. This is what the reopeners don't grasp. You "reopen" and then what? People aren't going to flood industries that are centered on close contact, like your bars, movie theaters, and etc.

[TSA]

I've seen this guy's tweets, too. Another Liber ian trying to cherry pick data and making magical thinking arguments in order to urge a reopening. Let's breakdown the common arguments:

"The number of suicides from economic hardship will exceed the number of Covid deaths!"

There were 45 thousand suicides in 2016. Covid is on pace to claim 100-150K deaths just during the first wave. Even during the Great Depression, the suicide rate only increased 25%. Do the math, and it would take about 12 years at that rate for a suicide rate increase correlated to Covid to exceed Covid's first wave death toll.
The people we might lose to suicide brought on by the pandemic might be offset by the potential car accident deaths we prevent. https://www.latimes.com/environment/...idents-by-half

He never claimed that.

"All the people who will die not choosing to have to elective surgeries right now."

No one can know what this number is, and states (like California) that have controlled their outbreak relatively well are allowing elective surgeries already. https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramen...itals-can.html

He never claimed that.

"Pandemic will cause millions to starve due to the shutdown."

The linked Reuters article never claimed the economic toll was primary due to the shutdown. Pandemics cause economic tolls all their own, with or without shutdowns. Pandemics naturally shut down the economy anyway. Even the favorite Sweden example shows reduced commerce not that much different from regions under mandatory stay-at-home orders. So I'm not sure what the reopeners expect? You're not just going to flip the switch and generate enough economic activity that will lead to recovery for those business already on the brink.

With businesses shut down and more than a billion people told to stay home to avoid spreading the virus, the International Monetary Fund has predicted the world would this year suffer its steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The coronavirus pandemic has brought hunger to millions of people around the world. National lockdowns and social distancing measures are drying up work and incomes, and are likely to disrupt agricultural production and supply routes — leaving millions to worry how they will get enough to eat.

There is no shortage of food globally, or mass starvation from the pandemic — yet. But logistical problems in planting, harvesting and transporting food will leave poor countries exposed in the coming months, especially those reliant on imports, said Johan Swinnen, director general of the International Food Policy Research Ins ute in Washington.
While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organized and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labor intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to Covid-19 and social distancing regulations.”

The curfews and restrictions on movement are already devastating the meager incomes of displaced people in Uganda and Ethiopia, the delivery of seeds and farming tools in South Sudan and the distribution of food aid in the Central African Republic. Containment measures in Niger, which hosts almost 60,000 refugees fleeing conflict in Mali, have led to surges in the pricing of food, according to the International Rescue Committee.
The effects of the restrictions “may cause more suffering than the disease itself,” said Kurt Tjossem, regional vice president for East Africa at the International Rescue Committee.

[midnightpulp]

He never claimed that.

He never claimed that.

Those are common claims from that group on twitter.

Here's the key paragraph in the NY article:

While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organized and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labor intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to Covid-19 and social distancing regulations.”

Us being shutdown has no direct influence on the food production of those countries, since the supply chains aren't the same. Starvation vs. infection is a decision those countries have to weigh. Fortunately, we don't have that dilemma. To further clarify. The US being shutdown doesn't affect their situation, so there's no decision we can make in that regard that will "harm" or "help" those countries aside from aid. And I find it intellectually dishonest that Libertarian twitter is using "mass starvation around the world!" to try and sell the US reopening when the US doesn't have an effect on the situation.

[Winehole23]

Yep. And also, this virus comes with a suite of more severe symptoms than the flu. Even "mild" cases are reporting it's the worst they've ever felt in their lives. SnakeBoy in' collapsed. We're cool with going out and risking getting the flu because it's a known. If we get it, we know what to expect. We don't know how our bodies will react to this. Even if we don't die, risking battling a week long fever, worst body aches you ever felt, a persistent dry cough, and maybe shortness of breath isn't worth it to go get a haircut. This is what the reopeners don't grasp. You "reopen" and then what? People aren't going to flood industries that are centered on close contact, like your bars, movie theaters, and etc.

~3.5% of the hospitalized end up impaired (in a thing I read recently -- Mr Smarty Pants level of veracity.)

(Read somewhere, overheard at a party, saw on TV.)

https://www.austinchronicle.com/colu...y-pants-knows/

[Spurtacular]

What a stupid thread

Poor man's Chump.

[rascal]

They better be careful when they reopen because once they reopen they won't be closing again no matter how bad it gets in a 2nd wave.

[DMC]

They better be careful when they reopen because once they reopen they won't be closing again no matter how bad it gets in a 2nd wave.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more

[midnightpulp]

For everyone who thinks Sweden is business as usual and they're piling into restaurants and bars like before.

"Many people stay at home and have stopped travelling. Many businesses are collapsing. Unemployment is expected to rise dramatically," Linde said.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/17/...ish-government

[Winehole23]

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more

In the comprehensive post WWII study, the US Army calculated that orders to advance in Europe during WWII were obeyed by approximately 15-20% of the troops so ordered.

A similar rate of participation might be expected now.