Why do you think this?
What do you mean by intelligent?
I see the probability being something more like bacteria. It took 1.5 billion years on Earth for more complex cells to form that can actually eventually obtain some sort of nervous system that might identify itself as an individual among others? Why so damn long? And natural selection does not necessarily have to have an end product with the intelligence to identify as self.
How long do planets last to hold together biological molecules that can self replicate. The vast majority are way too hot or way too cold. They don’t even necessarily last long enough in any proper temperature to form any type of atoms that can combine to form life as we know.
I can see why there is NOT intelligent life (having a sense of self; asking what the am I?) anywhere else. And It does not mean we took a miracle to produce either. For me it’s just too easy to say well based on probability and the size of the universe.., this is a physicist way of looking at “intelligent” life. I see something, anything like us, based on time for conditions to stay proper, and then the fact it took so damn long to produce the simplest of the beginning of complex cells here. 1.5 billion years for SINGLE CELL Eukaryotes... why?
And I could be dead wrong, but based on what we know right now... I can see a No.

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