[Statistical Analysis] 2020 Draft Prospects - WINGS ONLY

[Dejounte]

The purpose of this post is to focus on the shot tendencies of each player. Player tendencies are important because players hardly change their game unless there is a league wide shift in playing the game *cough* small ball *cough*. So from this data, we will be able to tell what the player will look like in the NBA.

FTA rate is what I look for in most prospects. I believe it is a major indicator of if the player is tough (on offense) or if they aren't. If their FTA rate is low, it tells me they avoid physical contact. I do not want any more soft players. We lost a lot of games because when our shooters shots don't go in, no one aside from Keldon knew how to be physical, draw fouls, and gain rhythm from free throws.


Below I've organized data on the relevant wings in the draft and compared them to each other.

Red = Least
Yellow = Middle ground
Green = Greatest

--- DISCLAIMER --- It is important to use the numbers in context. Some wings didn't get as many shot attempts as others, so simply looking at the color coding can mislead people. Look at all categories first before making assumptions.

TABLE 1: SORTED BY 3 POINT ATTEMPTS



Notes:
-We may be able to use and interpret the wings with highest AST% as wings who can only shoot those 3's at a standstill/ catch and shoot. Saddiq Bey, Cassius Stanley, Josh Green, Robert Woodard, and Tyler Bey are those players who needs playmakers in order for them to generate their 3’s.
-Best players who can shoot 3’s on their own: Anthony Edwards, Mason Jones, Isaac Okoro (although Isaac didn’t shoot many 3’s, so he probably shouldn’t be counted here). Now this could mean two things: These guys are either 3 point chuckers or they’re not. All you have to look at is their 3 pt FG%... For the volume that he shot, Mason Jones is the stand out here.


TABLE 2: SORTED BY CLOSE 2 ATTEMPTS


Notes:
-From "% of Dunks Attempted over Total Close 2's Attempted" we can kind of see which wings have hops… I see that Woodard, Devin Vassell, and Patrick Williams win this category. But we have to be careful and look at FTA rate in conjunction with this. Devin falls under the “Obi category” where he has the athleticism and appears to avoid contact with the poor FTA rate. Too bad Devin isn’t as efficient as Obi in every other area.
-Most physical players: Isaac Okoro, Mason Jones, Tyler Bey. These are guys you can probably count on to play hard on offense. None of that soft . However, as we all know Isaac and Tyler are poor on offense in other areas.




TABLE 3: SORTED BY FAR 2 POINT ATTEMPTS


Notes:
-Haven’t watched Woodard much, but surprised he likes to shoot far 2’s.
-Not surprised seeing Devin as having a shot selection that consisted of a lot of far 2’s…. he made them at a decent rate, I’ll give him that. We don’t need any more DeMar type shooters though, and we all know Devin isn’t on his level
-Pat enjoyed the mid-range much like his idol Kawhi Leonard. Is he super efficient? Not really. Not yet at least.

[Dejounte]

Saddiq Bey

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-47% likely to attempt a 3 than a 2 pointer on the court, meaning 47% of the time on offense he is on the perimeter (very simplified)
-He creates 1 three point shot on his own out of 13 three point attempts, he needs to be surrounded by playmakers to generate 3's. Otherwise, has little to no moves when shooting 3's.
-Great at 3 point making compared to his peers
-Ranks well with unassisted close 2's. "Only three possible answers: offensive rebounds, good at driving to the basket, and/or good postup game." - DAF86. Doesn't dunk it much, but he may have a nice layup package.
-Poor FTA Rate. Avoids physical contact on offense. What will he do if the shots don't go in and players are being physical with him?
-Middle ground "% dunk attempts over close 2's" tells me he has average hops.
-Didn't attempt many far 2's. He's a clear 3 and D player. When he did attempt far 2's, the chance to go in was below average.

[Dejounte]

Due to Pat's minutes and the amount of shots he took, it's harder to paint a picture for him. It's more theoretical and honestly the only takeaway we can probably look at from his numbers is where he'll like to shoot on the court in the NBA.

Patrick Williams

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-He didn't shoot 3's as much as a modern wing does (1 in every 4 attempts was a 3), and shot them at a rate a modern big would
-High "3 pt ast %" points to him needing a playmaker to generate those 3's. If we're dreaming him to be a Kawhi type, he's going to have to learn more moves on the perimeter to get his shots up.
-Ranks high among his peers in "dunks over total close 2's", this just confirms he is fairly athletic (or has good hops) relative to his peers
-Created most of his shots near the rim by himself (60%). A good sign that he has some versatility as a modern forward instead of one that gets spoon fed most times
-Fair number for FTA rate. He's not soft.
-As we all know, he likes taking mid-range shots. He made them at an average rate.

[mo7888]

Woodard looks better and better to me looking at those numbers... I wouldn't spend #11 on him but he's going to have a long career playing D and knocking down 3's. I see him as a more powerful Bruce Bowen. He'll be a very valuable role player who won't break the bank.

[Dejounte]

Woodard looks better and better to me looking at those numbers... I wouldn't spend #11 on him but he's going to have a long career playing D and knocking down 3's. I see him as a more powerful Bruce Bowen. He'll be a very valuable role player who won't break the bank.

Robert Woodard II

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-Similar to Pat, Robert didn't choose to shoot 3's as much as he did 2's. This is surprising for me.
-On majority of his 3 point attempts, he needs playmakers to shoot them (which is what we all knew, he is a 3 and D player). He was a good 3 point shooter.
-He was assisted for much of his points near the rim. This could be a product of good passing on his team, but he did make them at a good rate. He's a good finisher.
-He dunked the ball a lot. He has hops.
-Low FTA Rate. Either does not know how to draw fouls (where to put his arms) or avoided contact altogether. What will he do if he's not making shots or the opposing players are being physical?
-Chooses to shoot a lot of far 2's. The high "far 2 ast%" tells me that these may be mid-range jumpers similar to someone like David West.

[pad300]

A proposed rule of thumb: 0 in game dunks means not able to dunk in a real setting, and thus insufficiently athletic to draft. This would rule out Desmond Bane from the wings, and several of the Guards (Winston, Pritchard, Dotson, Jones).

[Dejounte]

A proposed rule of thumb: 0 in game dunks means not able to dunk in a real setting, and thus insufficiently athletic to draft. This would rule out Desmond Bane from the wings, and several of the Guards (Winston, Pritchard, Dotson, Jones).

That's if your draft philosophy / emphasis is centered around athleticism. I don't think it's big deal if you're a playmaker or 3 point threat. For example, Derrick White barely dunks in-game but he still has a lot of utility. Anyways, I think athleticism can be broken down to different categories... if you're weak in leaping ability, it doesn't mean you're unathletic. Like Gerald Green can dunk a lot but he's easily pushed over.

[phxspurfan]

You left off the best wing, Honey BBQ


*sees self out*

[pad300]

That's if your draft philosophy / emphasis is centered around athleticism. I don't think it's big deal if you're a playmaker or 3 point threat. For example, Derrick White barely dunks in-game but he still has a lot of utility. Anyways, I think athleticism can be broken down to different categories... if you're weak in leaping ability, it doesn't mean you're unathletic. Like Gerald Green can dunk a lot but he's easily pushed over.

I don't center my philosophy around athleticism, but I certainly think there is a minimum threshold of athleticism needed to be effective in the NBA. I don't know where you are getting this data from, but if it has Derrick's last year in college, go see if he had zero in game dunks - I would bet a lot that he had several...

[Dejounte]

I don't center my philosophy around athleticism, but I certainly think there is a minimum threshold of athleticism needed to be effective in the NBA. I don't know where you are getting this data from, but if it has Derrick's last year in college, go see if he had zero in game dunks - I would bet a lot that he had several...

Dunks don't equal athleticism. It only means they have leaping ability. Now if you're saying there should be a minimum threshold for how high you can jump in order to be effective in the NBA...then I disagree.

[Seventyniner]

A proposed rule of thumb: 0 in game dunks means not able to dunk in a real setting, and thus insufficiently athletic to draft. This would rule out Desmond Bane from the wings, and several of the Guards (Winston, Pritchard, Dotson, Jones).

...and Tony Parker, right? Though I don't know how many he had with Paris Basket Racing before he came to the Spurs. It was probably a handful at most.

[dbestpro]

The beautiful game moved past the idea of a playmaker and focused on moving the ball from a good shot to a great shot. Saddiq would flourish in that format. He also plays better defense than most give him credit. He got where he got because of hard work. He has proven that he can elevate his game and play within a system. Some of the others need the ball most the time and want to play isolation.

[ZeusWillJudge]

That's pretty good work. AST% is a stat that almost never gets talked about on fan sites. But it says a lot about whether a guy can create his own shot. Personally, I'm not crazy about a guy who shoots a lot of unassisted 3's, but shoots 29% (Anthony Edwards). I agree with you about Mason Jones' stats looking good.

You have to be cautious using AST% too much with college players, because of the big difference in strength of schedules. (A lot of guys can create their own shot in the G-League, too, who can't in the NBA.) But it's still valuable to look at.

Most guys who take a lot of long 2's think they are creating their own shots. A lot of the time the defense is giving them those shots, and daring them to take them.

Look at the overall picture, and you'll see why I like Jordan Nwora. He had a couple of not-great games, and fell hard on a lot of mock drafts. But he's a damn good 3P shooter, and he's got good balance to the rest of his game. On the other hand, I see Cassius Stanley on that list. He's been showing up in a lot of articles and mocks, like he's a rising star. That boy doesn't play a lick of defense. Unless he changes drastically, he'd be worse to have on a roster than Bryn Forbes.

[DAF86]

Saddiq Bey

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-47% likely to attempt a 3 than a 2 pointer on the court, meaning 47% of the time on offense he is on the perimeter (very simplified)
-He creates 1 three point shot on his own out of 13 three point attempts, he needs to be surrounded by playmakers to generate 3's. Otherwise, has little to no moves when shooting 3's.
-Great at 3 point making compared to his peers
-Ranks well with unassisted close 2's. Tells me he's a good cutter. Doesn't dunk it much, but he may have a nice layup package.
-Poor FTA Rate. Avoids physical contact on offense. What will he do if the shots don't go in and players are being physical with him?
-Middle ground "% dunk attempts over close 2's" tells me he has average hops.
-Didn't attempt many far 2's. He's a clear 3 and D player. When he did attempt far 2's, the chance to go in was below average.

Cuts tend to lead to assisted 2's, tbh.

[Dejounte]

Cuts tend to lead to assisted 2's, tbh.

True, maybe he's really good at finding openings for drives. Not sure about this one.

[DAF86]

True, maybe he's really good at finding openings for drives. Not sure about this one.

Only three possible answers: offensive rebounds, good at driving to the basket, and/or good postup game.

[Dejounte]

Only three possible answers: offensive rebounds, good at driving to the basket, and/or good postup game.

I edited the original post.

I'm leaning towards close 2's from offensive rebounds or maybe some post up game. I really didn't see much explosiveness for him when he drove to the basket and he's not a good ball handler, which is why I don't think it is the "driving to the basket" option.

[DAF86]

I edited the original post.

I'm leaning towards close 2's from offensive rebounds or maybe some post up game. I really didn't see much explosiveness for him when he drove to the basket and he's not a good ball handler, which is why I don't think it is the "driving to the basket" option.

Another possible (most likely) explanation is that he's not particularly good ay any of those things but since he played as a primary offensive option, he got more unassisted close 2 opportunities and that's why he ranks well there. A matter of quan y over quality.

[Dejounte]

Another possible (most likely) explanation is that he's not particularly good ay any of those things but since he played as a primary offensive option, he got more unassisted close 2 opportunities and that's why he ranks well there. A matter of quan y over quality.

Not sure if being the first option on offense or not addresses how he scored those close 2's though. Having a higher volume of shots only increases the confidence level in the data, it doesn't change what kind of shots he liked and if he was efficient at it. If he was the first option, he could have shot the ball instead from mid-range or more shots at the 3 point line, but he took 105 shots near the rim and was somewhat successful at it. As an example, Jordan Nwora shot 60 more times than Saddiq (and had the same amount of shots near the rim) so he was one of the primary options on offense but he doesn't "rank well" there.

[Dejounte]

Devin Vassell

Shot Tendencies By The Numbers

Summary:
-36% likely to attempt a 3 than a 2 pointer on the court, meaning 36% of the time on offense he is on the perimeter (very simplified)
-He creates 1 three point shot on his own out of 7 three point attempts. Needs playmakers to help him generate his shots
-Good at 3 point making compared to his peers
-Takes a quarter of his shots near the rim. Assisted on most of these shots. Not very good at driving to the basket. Needs open lanes.
-Poor FTA Rate. Avoids physical contact on offense. What will he do if the shots don't go in and players are being physical with him?
-High "% dunk attempts over close 2's" tells me he has great hops.
-Takes a lot of long 2's and makes them at a good rate. Think DeMar DeRozan-style.