2020 Electoral Outlooks Thread

[baseline bum]

Somehow DeathSantis’s approval rating has gone up 9 points in the last 2 months. I don’t understand it, people who live in that state are ing crazy.

ing place is full of Florida Man and Cubans

[Spurtacular]

ing place is full of Florida Man and Cubans

ing Cubans, amirite?

[Ef-man]

Ride the copium derp, ride it like it owes you money!

[Spurtacular]

Any Democrat holding to Florida is in big denial.
You have better shots in GA, AZ, NC, MI, WI, PA if you're looking to chip at Trump's Red Firewall.

[ElNono]

ing place is full of Florida Man and Cubans

What do you expect? Under the pretense of fighting commies, Cubans have been getting full blown amnesty + citizenship since the Reagan days...

Also, Florida is full of retired boomers, tbh, basically a generation that has set this country back 30+ years...

[ElNono]

Any Democrat holding to Florida is in big denial.
You have better shots in GA, AZ, NC, MI, WI, PA if you're looking to chip at Trump's Red Firewall.

I think Biden has a solid shot in Florida. Gonna largely depend on Miami-Dade showing up to vote.

[Spurtacular]

I think Biden has a solid shot in Florida. Gonna largely depend on Miami-Dade showing up to vote.

Trump will win Florida by hundreds of thousands of votes.

In fact, add Iowa to the list of states Democrats have a better shot of winning.

Thought I think Trump will ultimately win Iowa by a larger percentage than he wins Florida.

[ElNono]

Trump will win Florida by hundreds of thousands of votes.

In fact, add Iowa to the list of states Democrats have a better shot of winning.

Thought I think Trump will ultimately win Iowa by a larger percentage than he wins Florida.

Based on what?

[Spurtacular]

Based on what?

Dude, I soak it all in. I could go back and reconstruct it; but it's not really what I want to do with my time.
Book it and watch if you don't believe me.

[ElNono]

Dude, I soak it all in. I could go back and reconstruct it; but it's not really what I want to do with my time.
Book it and watch if you don't believe me.

oh, it's pure faith.

I have no doubt Trump can win Florida. All I said is that Biden has a solid shot at it too.

[Spurtacular]

oh, it's pure faith.

I have no doubt Trump can win Florida. All I said is that Biden has a solid shot at it too.

Pure faith would imply I soak nothing of consequence in.

Throwing a tantrum maybe isn't the best way of convincing me to spend that kind of time reconstructing intel.

Nothing I'm seeing has me believing Biden has a "solid shot" of winning Florida. I would give him a faint shot for the sake of argument; but I'm not sure that's even in the case, tbh.

If I believed in fake polls as religiously as you do, I'd probably think that Biden had a "solid shot" though.

[ElNono]

Pure faith would imply I soak nothing of consequence in.

Throwing a tantrum maybe isn't the best way of convincing me to spend that kind of time reconstructing intel.

Nothing I'm seeing has me believing Biden has a "solid shot" of winning Florida. I would give him a faint shot for the sake of argument; but I'm not sure that's even in the case, tbh.

If I believed in fake polls as religiously as you do, I'd probably think that thouh.

I'm not here to convince you of anything. It's the other way around. You make a claim, you back it up.

I asked you very clearly what you were basing your hunch on. You can't explain it. Ok...

[Spurtacular]

I'm not here to convince you of anything. It's the other way around. You make a claim, you back it up.

I asked you very clearly what you were basing your hunch on. You can't explain it. Ok...

You're not trying to convince me; but I need to convince you somehow. K

No. I just say what I'm seeing. I may or may not make a case for your sake. I don't always take into consideration your feelings.

Again, a mini tantrum is not the best way to motivate me necessarily.

Saying I don't know and putting words into my mouth is Chumpian.

I take stuff in throughout the day(s). Some of it I retain; some of it I absorb but don't necessarily have a strong immediate recall.

You take for granted that making cases for your sake requires work on my part. I may or may not be in the mood or be willing to spend the time. We all have to prioritize our time.

[ElNono]

You're not trying to convince me; but I need to convince you somehow. K

No. I just say what I'm seeing. I may or may not make a case for your sake. I don't always take into consideration your feelings.

Again, a mini tantrum is not the best way to motivate me necessarily.

Saying I don't know and putting words into my mouth is Chumpian.

I take stuff in throughout the day(s). Some of it I retain; some of it I absorb but don't necessarily have a strong immediate recall.

You take for granted that making cases for your sake requires work on my part. I may or may not be in the mood or be willing to spend the time. We all have to prioritize our time.

This was my question, it's a couple posts up:

Based on what?

Just tell me it's a hunch, that's perfectly valid, tbh. No shame in that either.

[Spurtacular]

This was my question, it's a couple posts up:



Just tell me it's a hunch, that's perfectly valid, tbh. No shame in that either.

Early vote, Dems will be only 100K up or possibly less going into election day. The Repubs will win the day easily.
As well, minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics.
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. In fact, I was telling you that
I think many will be pleased with his lowering premiums by something like 43 percent.
You don't vote against something that is working. Colleges not in progress. The vote parties aren't there as much.
Furthermore, Democrats have zero ground game in Florida b/c they're being COVID snowflakes.
Yes, Dems may make compensation with mail-in voting; but I was seeing stuff about that not even being strong.
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility.
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places.

[ElNono]

Early vote, Dems will be only 100K up or possibly less going into election day. The Repubs will win the day easily.
As well, minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics.
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. In fact, I was telling you that
I think many will be pleased with his lowering premiums by something like 43 percent.
You don't vote against something that is working. Colleges not in progress. The vote parties aren't there as much.
Furthermore, Democrats have zero ground game in Florida b/c they're being COVID snowflakes.
Yes, Dems may make compensation with mail-in voting; but I was seeing stuff about that not even being strong.
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility.
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places.

This is you rationalizing your own opinion. This is a hunch. It's fine, but it's all it is.

[ElNono]

(BTW, I'm not mocking it or anything, don't take it the wrong way)

[ElNono]

I mean, even respectable polls are well within the margin of error, so Trump certainly has a solid chance here.

I know I've been giving States within the MoE to Trump.

[Spurtacular]

This is you rationalizing your own opinion. This is a hunch. It's fine, but it's all it is.

You're using loaded words like rationalizing even after I've present empirical data.
You're coping because the writing is on the wall and you don't want to admit it.
Frankly, I'd tell you if I thought Florida was in jeopardy. I did last time; but Trump won it fairly comfortably all the same.
This time, he has expanded his support in Florida greatly. I can't point to anything Biden has going for him other than mail-in voting, which is apparently not going very well after all.

[Spurtacular]

I mean, even respectable polls are well within the margin of error, so Trump certainly has a solid chance here.

I know I've been giving States within the MoE to Trump.

I think you're looking at 2016 and seeing that it was pretty close, and you think it's going to play out like that and anything can happen.
That's how I'd optimistically want to view it if I were a Democrat. But this state is reddening, realistically.
And as I've tried to explain, I've been following this and seeing a strong trend. Predic .org had Trump at 51/100 on 10/19. Today it's at 62/100. (The higher the number the more favorable). But I'm not trying to validate that site as a strong indicator at all. I'm just giving you yet another example.

[ElNono]

You're using loaded words like rationalizing even after I've present empirical data.
You're coping because the writing is on the wall and you don't want to admit it.
Frankly, I'd tell you if I thought Florida was in jeopardy. I did last time; but Trump won it fairly comfortably all the same.
This time, he has expanded his support in Florida greatly. I can't point to anything Biden has going for him other than mail-in voting, which is apparently not going very well after all.

Then you don't know what empirical means. What you stated is 100% opinion. And then in this post you post opinion again.

Empirical means it's verifiable by observation or experience. In other words, anybody should be able to observe or experience what you state, and that's clearly not the case.

There are actual statistical measures that are contrary to what you state. Or at least, the margins you state.

There's nothing wrong with having an opinion, but you can't pass that as evidence of anything. That doesn't mean your opinion isn't valid either, BTW, I think everybody is en led to one.

[ElNono]

For example, when I say I think Biden has a solid shot, it's absolutely an opinion. I do base it on the fact that, at least on the most reputable polls, it looks like the race is a tossup.

But I couldn't bring forth evidence outside of that.

[Spurtacular]

Then you don't know what empirical means.

100k bla bla 43 percent bla bla. You just trying to be difficult/snooty?

[ElNono]

100k bla bla 43 percent bla bla. You just trying to be difficult/snooty?

em·pir·i·cal
adjective
adjective: empirical

based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic. "they provided considerable empirical evidence to support their argument"

[Spurtacular]

Then you don't know what empirical means. What you stated is 100% opinion. And then in this post you post opinion again.

Empirical means it's verifiable by observation or experience. In other words, anybody should be able to observe or experience what you state, and that's clearly not the case.

There are actual statistical measures that are contrary to what you state. Or at least, the margins you state.

There's nothing wrong with having an opinion, but you can't pass that as evidence of anything. That doesn't mean your opinion isn't valid either, BTW, I think everybody is en led to one.

And then the grand lecture built on a false premise.

You're taking the Florida stuff too personally, bro.

I was frankly trying to steer you in a direction that would be fruitful cos Florida just ain't gonna happen. But apparently you'll be damned if I dash those hopes. I mean, I can see why; you've done the math and you probably think it's in the bag if you get Florida. But shooting the messenger isn't going to change anything.