Nature: Five Reasons Why Herd Immunity Is Probably Impossible

[Winehole23]

That threshold is generally achievable only with high vaccination rates, and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal. Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60–70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, the thinking has begun to shift. In February, independent data scientist Youyang Gu changed the name of his popular COVID-19 forecasting model from ‘Path to Herd Immunity’ to ‘Path to Normality’. He said that reaching a herd-immunity threshold was looking unlikely because of factors such as vaccine hesitancy, the emergence of new variants and the delayed arrival of vaccinations for children.


Gu is a data scientist, but his thinking aligns with that of many in the epidemiology community. “We’re moving away from the idea that we’ll hit the herd-immunity threshold and then the pandemic will go away for good,” says epidemiologist Lauren Ancel Meyers, executive director of the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. This shift reflects the complexities and challenges of the pandemic, and shouldn’t overshadow the fact that vaccination is helping. “The vaccine will mean that the virus will start to dissipate on its own,” Meyers says. But as new variants arise and immunity from infections potentially wanes, “we may find ourselves months or a year down the road still battling the threat, and having to deal with future surges”.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

[Winehole23]

But it’s going to be hard to stop people reverting to pre-pandemic behaviour. Texas and some other US state governments are already lifting mask mandates, even though substantial proportions of their populations remain unprotected. It’s frustrating to see people easing off these protective behaviours right now, Scarpino says, because continuing with measures that seem to be working, such as limiting indoor gatherings, could go a long way to helping end the pandemic. The herd-immunity threshold is “not a ‘we’re safe’ threshold, it’s a ‘we’re safer’ threshold”, Scarpino says. Even after the threshold has been passed, isolated outbreaks will still occur.

[SnakeBoy]

We'll have herd immunity when we become a herd

[hater]

This will go away like magic by april

[Spurtacular]

I love how they changed herd immunity from eradication (for Trump) to a threshold (for Biden).

[Spurtacular]

This will go away like magic by april

You don't get out of this sh**. You sperm shielded for the scamdemic for a year.

[Leetonidas]

I love how they changed herd immunity from eradication (for Trump) to a threshold (for Biden).

Who are "they"?



inb4 deflection attempt

[Spurtacular]

Who are "they"?

Your lords and masters.

[Leetonidas]

inb4 deflection attempt

Called it. Derp folds

[Winehole23]

Who are "they"?



inb4 deflection attempt

derp be derpin. he has no idea what he's talking about.

if you doubt it, just ask him.

[Leetonidas]

I have no lords or masters unlike you Trump fellators

[Spurtacular]

Called it.

You called jack sh** with your gimmick.
Quite frankly, it's likely you don't know who all your lords and masters are, tbh.

[Spurtacular]

I have no lords or masters unlike you Trump fellators

Called it.

[Leetonidas]

Derp blathering incoherently, per par.

[ChumpDumper]

I love how they changed herd immunity from eradication (for Trump) to a threshold (for Biden).

No one ever said it was eradication, derp.

No one.

[Rummpd]

Public health doctor here who has giving hundreds of Moderna vaccines and overseen vaccine campaigns other diseases. The OP article is a fair one, and honestly it is probably too early to tell about the level of herd immunity with variants involved and a mul ude of other factors. Herd immunity can be enough to shut down transmission but there can also be relative herd immunity which decreases spread but not stop it. I have friends modeling this stuff and incredibly complicated.

[DarrinS]

Just have NIH and FDA approve Ivermectin already.

[DarrinS]

So whinehole can unclench his butt cheeks. Must be exhausting.

[Winehole23]

So whinehole can unclench his butt cheeks. Must be exhausting.

I'm doing fine, but I do worry about others. Navel-gazers like you don't get it.

[DarrinS]

I'm doing fine, but I do worry about others. Navel-gazers like you don't get it.

Everything you post (not even necessarily covid-related) is pessimism.

[Rummpd]

Just have NIH and FDA approve Ivermectin already.

That is a whole other discussion I know a respected pulmonary and critical care expert pushing hard use of that drug. It can be used off label. A danger is that some people are taking the drug made for horses - not a good idea. An issue human form can only be given by a pill in what is normally available. I know a doctor tried to get for a ventilator patient and could not find it in a form to give.

[DarrinS]

That is a whole other discussion I know a respected pulmonary and critical care expert pushing hard use of that drug. It can be used off label. A danger is that some people are taking the drug made for horses - not a good idea. An issue human form can only be given by a pill in what is normally available. I know a doctor tried to get for a ventilator patient and could not find it in a form to give.

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't take veterinary version of that drug.


Here's an international panel discussion released today

[Winehole23]

Everything you post (not even necessarily covid-related) is pessimism.

That's a lazy generalization.

If you read through caredully, you'll see that I've posted news that's good, bad and indifferent.

If you want to blame the trend of ominous/bad new on me, fine, but Occam's razor might suggest a simpler answer: COVID-19. In a pandemic like this one the bad news chases us, not the other way around.

[baseline bum]

Everything you post (not even necessarily covid-related) is pessimism.

And you're posting nothing but unfounded rosy optimism constantly. Have been doing it for a year now.

[ChumpDumper]

Why didn't New York City get a e in cases?

So many already had it there. No fuel.