Out of 29 teams, 11 teams have a franchise player.
Out of those 11 teams, nine of them attained their franchise player through the draft. It took an average closer to
one lottery season (sum of 12 divided by nine) for these teams to find their franchise player.
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Out of 29 teams, 19 teams have a borderline franchise player.
Out of those 19 teams, 15 teams attained their borderline franchise player through the draft. It took an average of
three lottery seasons. Though it is more seasons, these types of players were more abundant as more teams have them. Honestly, this would be a lot lower without the T-Wolves and the Kings screwing it up.
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Serious tanking (top 3 pick) gives you a
61.5% chance to attain a True Franchise Player.
Sub-par tanking (#5 to #10 range) gives you a
15.4% chance to attain a True Franchise Player.
Compe ive tanking (#11 to #15 range) gives you a
15.4% chance to attain a True Franchise Player.
Not tanking at all (#16 and onwards) gives you a
7.7% chance to attain a True Franchise Player.
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Serious tanking (top 3 pick) gives you a
34.8% chance to attain a Borderline Franchise Player.
Sub-par tanking (#5 to #10 range) gives you a
17.3% chance to attain a Borderline Franchise Player.
Compe ive tanking (#11 to #15 range) gives you a
30.4% chance to attain a Borderline Franchise Player.
Not tanking at all (#16 and onwards) gives you a
21.7% chance to attain a Borderline Franchise Player.
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Combining both odds...
Serious tanking (top 3 pick) gives you a
69.6% chance to attain a Franchise Player OR Borderline Franchise Player.
Sub-par tanking (#5 to #10 range) gives you a
16.7% chance to attain a Franchise Player OR Borderline Franchise Player.
Compe ive tanking (#11 to #15 range) gives you a
22.2% chance to attain a Franchise Player OR Borderline Franchise Player.
Not tanking at all (#16 and onwards) gives you a
16.7% chance to attain a Franchise Player OR Borderline Franchise Player.
Bottom-line:
Expect one to three seasons of being in the lottery for the Spurs to find their Franchise Player (or Borderline Franchise Player*).
Not a long wait, if you ask me.
*Assuming one is not on the roster already.
The T-Wolves, Wizards, Kings, Knicks, and the Suns (well, they're better now) are the league's worst franchises by far.