Spurs Trade Rumor Thread (Spurs eyeing Collins, Osman? Fielding calls on Jak?)

[exstatic]

If he impacted winning that much, we wouldn't be 14 games under .500. Of course that is not all on him, but when you impact winning then you usually aren't one of the 5 worst teams in the nba

Then DeJounte isn’t an All Star. How can you be one on one of the 5 worst teams?

[R. DeMurre]

If he impacted winning that much, we wouldn't be 14 games under .500. Of course that is not all on him, but when you impact winning then you usually aren't one of the 5 worst teams in the nba

The Spurs have three players that are solidly in the net positive category: Murray, Poeltl, and White. That's it. No other player on this team can claim that. Vassell and KJ are flirting with being net neutral, and the rest-- McDermott, Eubanks, etc.-- are pretty solidly in the negative. Another way to look at it: Murray, Poeltl, and White are the only three Spurs with a VORP above 1.0., while the rest of the team is below 1.0. Most winning teams have four or more players in this category. White isn't near a Jokic, Giannis, or Curry in terms of impact. He's not even at the level of a Jimmy Butler or Jayson Tatum-- that's the level of player it would take to counterbalance the Spurs' current lack of depth and experience and make them a winning team. It's not White's fault that his team's two starting forwards are consistently out-rebounded by the two starting guards and often by the starting PG by himself. But if next year, Vassell and KJ can step up even slightly into positive territory and the Spurs can replace a chunk of minutes currently filled by McDermott, Eubanks, & Walker with more impactful guys, I think the Spurs can easily be above .500.

[KingKev]

The Spurs have three players that are solidly in the net positive category: Murray, Poeltl, and White. That's it. No other player on this team can claim that. Vassell and KJ are flirting with being net neutral, and the rest-- McDermott, Eubanks, etc.-- are pretty solidly in the negative. Another way to look at it: Murray, Poeltl, and White are the only three Spurs with a VORP above 1.0., while the rest of the team is below 1.0. Most winning teams have four or more players in this category. White isn't near a Jokic, Giannis, or Curry in terms of impact. He's not even at the level of a Jimmy Butler or Jayson Tatum-- that's the level of player it would take to counterbalance the Spurs' current lack of depth and experience and make them a winning team. It's not White's fault that his team's two starting forwards are consistently out-rebounded by the two starting guards and often by the starting PG by himself. But if next year, Vassell and KJ can step up even slightly into positive territory and the Spurs can replace a chunk of minutes currently filled by McDermott, Eubanks, & Walker with more impactful guys, I think the Spurs can easily be above .500.

I know there are alot of optimists on this board but when Murray, White and Jak are your top 3 you have alot to be worried about. Individually those guys could be very important pieces to a winning team, don’t get me wrong but they are all your 3-5th best player on almost every other NBA team.

Vassell and KJ still have the ability to develop into solid bench players and potential starters given a fitting role but will never be the solution.

I don’t think Spurs fans realize just how bad Walker, McDermott and especially Eubanks are.

We have a real lack of talent. It’s undeniable. Take Jak/White out of the equation and we are absolutely a bottom 5 team. They are both very valuable (and replaceable) trade chips however.

[Chinook]

I also think people shouldn't fall too in love with impact stats. That's how you end up believing the Bulls were going to be worse moving Thad's high impact for DeRozan. Until there's a way to control for role, the impact stats can't be your only way to measure a player's importance. They shouldn't even be considered the strongest evidence.

Obviously, though, it doesn't make sense to use the Spurs' record this year as a way of downplaying White. Better players than Derrick are also unable to drag their teams to good records.

[The Truth #6]

I know there are alot of optimists on this board but when Murray, White and Jak are your top 3 you have alot to be worried about. Individually those guys could be very important pieces to a winning team, don’t get me wrong but they are all your 3-5th best player on almost every other NBA team.

Vassell and KJ still have the ability to develop into solid bench players and potential starters given a fitting role but will never be the solution.

I don’t think Spurs dans realize just how bad Walker, McDermott and especially Eubanks are.

We have a real lack of talent. It’s undeniable. Take Jak/White out of the equation and we are absokutely a bottom 5 team. They are both very valuable (and replaceable) trade chips however.

Harsh truth. But I agreed with this.

[KingKev]

The parity across the NBA means guys like Jak, White and Thad potentially fetch good return. This a great year to upgrade your roster at the deadline. Alot of other solid role players probably on the block though: think T Ross, Robert Covington, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Dragic, TJ Warren, Eric Gordon to name a few.

[exstatic]

I also think people shouldn't fall too in love with impact stats. That's how you end up believing the Bulls were going to be worse moving Thad's high impact for DeRozan. Until there's a way to control for role, the impact stats can't be your only way to measure a player's importance. They shouldn't even be considered the strongest evidence.

Obviously, though, it doesn't make sense to use the Spurs' record this year as a way of downplaying White. Better players than Derrick are also unable to drag their teams to good records.

Haliburton, perhaps?

[KingKev]

Something else to consider ahead of the trade deadline is that the projected revenue from the estimated ~10 or so luxury tax payers is going to be like 500-600mm. That is double the next highest year. Something like 50% of that gets paid to non tax payers.

That’s 10+ milly per team. Anyone at or near the luxury tax are highly motivated to get that pay cheque. We can facilitate that with Thad and Juancho if compensated appropriately.

Is Brian Wright capable?

[exstatic]

Something else to consider ahead of the trade deadline is that the projected revenue from the estimated ~10 or so luxury tax payers is going to be like 500-600mm. That is double the next highest year. Something like 50% of that gets paid to non tax payers.

That’s 10+ milly per team. Anyone at or near the luxury tax are highly motivated to get that pay cheque. We can facilitate that with Thad and Juancho if compensated appropriately.

Is Brian Wright capable?

Portland is a candidate. They’re only $4.5M into the tax.

[R. DeMurre]

I also think people shouldn't fall too in love with impact stats. That's how you end up believing the Bulls were going to be worse moving Thad's high impact for DeRozan. Until there's a way to control for role, the impact stats can't be your only way to measure a player's importance. They shouldn't even be considered the strongest evidence.

Obviously, though, it doesn't make sense to use the Spurs' record this year as a way of downplaying White. Better players than Derrick are also unable to drag their teams to good records.

I wouldn't call the Chicago situation a strong case here. They added Lonzo, Caruso, and DeRozan, and had more time to incorporate Vucevic, who only played 26 games with them last year. Of their top 5 leaders in minutes played, four are different from the top 5 of last season, so they're essentially a completely different team. They also eliminated minutes for Coby White and Patrick Williams, who were two of their biggest net negatives last season. Coby White was #1 on the Bulls in minutes played last year-- this year he's 6th, and widely considered to be on the trading block. Williams was #3 last year, and not in the top 13 this year. So again, a completely different team. Their record didn't improve simply because they swapped Thad for DeRozan.

[KingKev]

Portland is a candidate. They’re only $4.5M into the tax.

Agreed but we’ve had this debate. Nurk and RoCo are coveted players on expiring contracts and probably not in the Blazers future. They will not have any trouble finding a team to make that worm and do not need to pay up to do it.

Grizzlies could take one of those two outright.

[R. DeMurre]

Haliburton, perhaps?

Absolutely. Some had Golden State in that draft pulling the surprise move of trading the #2 pick and grabbing him with a lottery pick a few slots down. I bet they'd do that now, if given a redo.

[Thomas82]

I know there are alot of optimists on this board but when Murray, White and Jak are your top 3 you have alot to be worried about. Individually those guys could be very important pieces to a winning team, don’t get me wrong but they are all your 3-5th best player on almost every other NBA team.

Vassell and KJ still have the ability to develop into solid bench players and potential starters given a fitting role but will never be the solution.

I don’t think Spurs fans realize just how bad Walker, McDermott and especially Eubanks are.

We have a real lack of talent. It’s undeniable. Take Jak/White out of the equation and we are absolutely a bottom 5 team. They are both very valuable (and replaceable) trade chips however.

[Chinook]

I wouldn't call the Chicago situation a strong case here. They added Lonzo, Caruso, and DeRozan, and had more time to incorporate Vucevic, who only played 26 games with them last year. Of their top 5 leaders in minutes played, four are different from the top 5 of last season, so they're essentially a completely different team. They also eliminated minutes for Coby White and Patrick Williams, who were two of their biggest net negatives last season. Coby White was #1 on the Bulls in minutes played last year-- this year he's 6th, and widely considered to be on the trading block. Their record didn't improve simply because they swapped Thad for DeRozan.

Their record didn't just improve a little though. They went from solid lottery team to a dark-horse contender. DeRozan on aggregate has been their most impactful player this season, and per minute he's been the second-most impactful player. You can't slice this to take away credit from him. His stats aren't even better than they were last year, either, so it's not actually that he's playing better now than he did before. He's the same guy, but he's in a different situation now. But here's the thing: Even with everything I just said, Thad last year STILL had better impact that's than DeRozan this year -- both per-minute and aggregate (they've played about the same number of minutes).

So the example I brought up gets stronger with context, not weaker.

[R. DeMurre]

Their record didn't just improve a little though. They went from solid lottery team to a dark-horse contender. DeRozan on aggregate has been their most impactful player this season, and per minute he's been the second-most impactful player. You can't slice this to take away credit from him. His stats aren't even better than they were last year, either, so it's not actually that he's playing better now than he did before. He's the same guy, but he's in a different situation now. But here's the thing: Even with everything I just said, Thad last year STILL had better impact that's than DeRozan this year -- both per-minute and aggregate (they've played about the same number of minutes).

So the example I brought up gets stronger with context, not weaker.

They're essentially a completely different team, so I don't think the comparison makes sense. The reason they "didn't just improve a little" is because they're a completely different team, with multiple added pluses and numerous subtracted minuses. You might as well be comparing the Bulls to the '18 Raptors... both teams featured DeRozan... that's about how similar they are to last year's Bulls.

[exstatic]

Agreed but we’ve had this debate. Nurk and RoCo are coveted players on expiring contracts and probably not in the Blazers future. They will not have any trouble finding a team to make that worm and do not need to pay up to do it.

Grizzlies could take one of those two outright.

Grizzlies have capnroom? Right now?

[B1gduff]

a few question that I think need to be addressed.

1. Does Collings really move the needle for this team? At the moment he's playing on a team, with a much better roster than us, yet while being the second or 3rd option, they are 10th. So does Collings actually move the needle for us? Most people see Colling, Vassel, Primo and collins (if we acquire him) as the future....But does he acttually improve the team and is he actually worth the cost and price that we have to pay?


2. Alot of people are talking about the time-line, and how Jak and a few other do not fit it? So what is this timeline? Personally I feel like in 2 years, we'll be a playoff team and Jak will only be 28..

[JeffDuncan]

Their record didn't just improve a little though. They went from solid lottery team to a dark-horse contender. DeRozan on aggregate has been their most impactful player this season, and per minute he's been the second-most impactful player. You can't slice this to take away credit from him. His stats aren't even better than they were last year, either, so it's not actually that he's playing better now than he did before. He's the same guy, but he's in a different situation now. But here's the thing: Even with everything I just said, Thad last year STILL had better impact that's than DeRozan this year -- both per-minute and aggregate (they've played about the same number of minutes).
…

The main take-away, is that if the Spurs fail to make a good trade with Thad it will be a mark against the FO. They really do need to get that done.

[KingKev]

Grizzlies have capnroom? Right now?

10-15mm currently with Culver and Anderson off the books this offseason. Dump Adams last year of 2023 and they will have more than us this offseason.

They are a sleeper free agent destination.

I don’t think pp realize how good they are set up Ex. They are in a VERY good place. The Grindhouse is back.

Oh and 3 future FRPs from LA, Utah and Gs plus own all of their own. This year they have 3 including Lakers (probs mid teens) and Utah’s (probs low to mid 20s).

[exstatic]

10-15mm currently with Culver and Anderson off the books this offseason. Dump Adams last year of 2023 and they will have more than us this offseason.

They are a sleeper free agent destination.

I don’t think pp realize how good they are set up Ex. They are in a VERY good place. The Grindhouse is back.

Oh and 3 future FRPs from LA, Utah and Gs plus own all of their own. This year they have 3 including Lakers (probs mid teens) and Utah’s (probs low to mid 20s).

THIS MINUTE, they have -$3.5M. Cap room in the off-season doesn’t help Portland get under the tax. Only a trade BEFORE the deadline can do that.

[MannyIsGod]

The Spurs likely gathered Thad to facilitate in part of a larger trade - IE Ben Simmons. Now that DJM has emerged there's almost no way he's going to be included in any deal for Ben Simmons. It just wouldn't make sense to trade DJM for him at this point, so the chances of any Ben Simmons deal go way down and Thads utility goes way down as a trade piece. I don't think there was ever a huge market for Thad on his own. The Phoenix rumor has been around but does Thad really strike anyone as commanding a first round pick? I don't believe the Spurs playing him this season would have changed that. I think at this point the Spurs aren't going to take any salary back unless its at least a first round pick. Otherwise they'll probably buyout Thad after next Thursday. I don't think a 2nd rounder moves the needle, but I do think that they might try to use Thad as part of some larger trade.

[Chinook]

They're essentially a completely different team, so the comparison makes no sense. The reason they "didn't just improve a little" is because they're a completely different team, with multiple added pluses and numerous subtracted minuses. You might as well be comparing the Bulls to the '18 Raptors... both teams featured DeRozan... that's about how similar they are to last year's Bulls.

No, you're making my point for me. If context matters so much that you can't just look at impact stats and judge who's a good player ... then that fits into what I said. You can't defend how well impact stats tell the story by claiming that you can't use impact stats to compare players unless the players are in the exact same contexts.

Also, the Bulls aren't a "completely different team". They have the same stars they had last year plus DeRozan. Their highest-impact player hasn't even played 1000 minutes yet. The actual sample sizes between Thad last year and DeRozan this year are nearly equal. So DeMar, whose basic stats are slightly worse than last year, goes from a net-negative on a bad team to the highest aggregate impact player on a very good team yet still doesn't have the impact stats of a role-player on a bad team, yet that still doesn't speak to the limitations of impact stats? It doesn't make sense. I'm not saying impact stats are useless or wrong. I'm saying that people can't use them to make judgments on how much a player really contributes to winning. You can't compare role-players to stars. You can't compare high-usage starters to low-usage bench players. , you can't even compare players on good teams to players on bad teams. Your post agrees with that, so as far as I can tell, you agree with the point I was making.

If you were a person who thought the Spurs would get better (not be in a better long-term position from tanking, but be better immediately) from DeRozan leaving or thought that the Bulls would be better off not doing the DeRozan trade, hopefully you've seen enough to change your mind. If you didn't think that, then that's cool. But there are certainly people who look at impact stats and make those types of conclusions, and that leads to them being wrong. In the same vein, using those stats to stay White has been however important comes with the same weaknesses to criticism. I've liked White a lot for years and still have hope for him, but I also wouldn't look at his RAPTOR and say he's been playing well this year.

[JeffDuncan]

a few question that I think need to be addressed.

1. Does Collings really move the needle for this team?

You mean John Collins on the Hawks? Properly used, he should be significant. His scoring is good, his shooting is good, his rebounding is good, he has low turnovers, and he’s a positive player at both ends of the court, altho moreso on offense. His contract price is somewhat high, but probably not out of line with current NBA prices for good players.

2. Alot of people are talking about the time-line, and how Jak and a few other do not fit it? So what is this timeline? Personally I feel like in 2 years, we'll be a playoff team and Jak will only be 28..

I think that much of the timeline talk around here comes from a distaste for signing older vets.

[KingKev]

THIS MINUTE, they have $3.5M. Cap room in the off-season doesn’t help Portland get under the tax. Only a trade BEFORE the deadline can do that.

My bad, missed the dead cap. Didn’t realize Rondo, Kris Dunn and Gasol were still on the books. They still have movable expiring contracts to be buyers at the deadline.

[exstatic]

The Spurs likely gathered Thad to facilitate in part of a larger trade - IE Ben Simmons. Now that DJM has emerged there's almost no way he's going to be included in any deal for Ben Simmons. It just wouldn't make sense to trade DJM for him at this point, so the chances of any Ben Simmons deal go way down and Thads utility goes way down as a trade piece. I don't think there was ever a huge market for Thad on his own. The Phoenix rumor has been around but does Thad really strike anyone as commanding a first round pick? I don't believe the Spurs playing him this season would have changed that. I think at this point the Spurs aren't going to take any salary back unless its at least a first round pick. Otherwise they'll probably buyout Thad after next Thursday. I don't think a 2nd rounder moves the needle, but I do think that they might try to use Thad as part of some larger trade.

The Phoenix FRP would have been for both value for Thad and eating two years of Saric’s contract, one of which would have been valueless to us because he was injured.