Official 2022 NBA Draft thread

[Dejounte]

that's one thing where he and DJ could become a great duo. On the other hand I'm scared that his ceiling is Tobias Harris

worth a gamble tbh. There’s very few players in this draft that have the look of a legitimate go-to scorer, which the Spurs BADLY need

[mo7888]

Someone posted this on reddit, I thought it was a good read:

TL;DR: 6th+18th+20th+Filler could get us to #4, but based on precedent we'd need something else of real substance to get into the top 3.


I'll look at this two ways: precedent and analytics.


Precedent:


The 2018 Draft's Mavs-Hawks trade is a good precedent for moving up a couple of spots in the top 10.


Mavs received: 3rd pick (Luka)


Hawks received: 5th pick (Trae) and future first rounder (top-5 protected 2019, top-5 protected 2020, top-3 protected 2021, top-3 protected 2022, unprotected 2023 [ended up being #10 in 2019, Hawks picked Cam Reddish])


Vegas had the Mavs with the 9th lowest win-total (34.5) heading into the 2018-19 season, so let's say that to move up 2 spots, the Mavs had to offer a pick with an expected value of ~9.


So, what are our 18th+20th picks worth compared to the ~9th pick? The 2014 Draft's Denver-Chicago trade is good precedent for the worth of our 18th+20th picks.


Denver received: 16th (Nurkic) and 19th (Gary Harris), 2015 2nd rounder


Chicago received: 11th (McDermott), Anthony Randolph


So 18th and 20th would be around the ~11th pick value, less than the ~9th pick value of that Mavs pick. So in order to move up 3 spots to #3, we probably have to add something of real value other than 6+18+20 (the Bulls pick... Keldon?).


Analytics:


Kevin Pelton of ESPN and Jacob Goldstein (now works for the Wizards) both formulated values for each pick of the NBA Draft based on historical data. Interesting, both of them value 6+18+20 as better value than that of the #2 pick: see chart.


I can't imagine any team that made it into the top 2 actually trading down though for 6+18+20. It seems like a huge PR hit to land a top-2 pick and trade down all the way to #6, and I doubt many fan bases (or ownership groups) would be very excited about the 18th and 20th picks when they could have had a hyped #2 pick. Moving 3 spots up to #3, however, might be more feasible based on the precedent above.


Overall Thoughts:


In order to trade up, we would need a situation similar to the Luka-Trae trade. The Hawks evaluated Trae and Luka the same, so they felt fine trading down and getting an estimated value of the 9th pick next year.


Orlando might be a good trade partner if Jonathan Isaac could actually stay healthy. The consensus top 3, Jabari/Chet/Paolo, are all big men, and a guard like Jaden Ivey or Johnny Davis might be a better fit for the Magic. So something like 6, 18, 20, and the Bulls pick might be enough.


I do think that this year's trade deadline shows the Spurs really do want to trade up though, and are gathering picks to do so. I believe this season has the most in-season trades in franchise history so there does seem to be a real sense of urgency. Plus, it's hard to see us trying to develop 3 first-rounders next year while we still have all these guys who need playing time like Murray, Jakob, Keldon, Vassell, and Primo. I suppose we could just draft 3 first-rounders and then do our usual G-League development, but then at some point the minutes in the big squad would get really hard to come by.

Good find... When it comes to trading up I agree the Spurs will at least explore it but, I think it's more likely (assuming we're at 6, 18, and 20) that we either 1) package 18 and 20 to move up than packaging it all to move into the top 4 or 2) trade 20 to acquire a future 1st + assets to balance out how many and when we bring in rookies.

We can all see that the Spurs have finally chosen a direction (rebuild) but the timeline of that rebuild hasn't revealed itself yet. Is it a slow rebuild or a shorter term one. A long rebuild doesn't fit with DJ and if we choose that route we probably trade him for draft capital too however, if we want a shorter rebuild using our #6 makes sense and trading back one of the other picks for future assets from a team we expect to be worse than us in upcoming years makes sense too. That leaves the other pick and a couple of our young guys to trade for a player the FO believes can be a ceiling lifter. You mentioned Jonathan Issac...many have mentioned John Collins (I'm not endorsing anyone myself) but if the FO believes in one of those then DJ + JC/JI etc +#6 pick + future 1st looks pretty good and interests me personally more than a long rebuild.

[exstatic]

With no more White, we definitely have a shot at 4th or 5th pick. It's going to be such a fun draft for us.

If we land in the 5,6,7 range, that will be good. Worst spot is actually 4. Every year, at least two teams have jumped into the top 4, meaning 4 is always SOL, and gets bumped.

[stnick2261]

Murray
Primo
Vassell / Johnson
(no PF)
Poeltl

Just going by Tankathon's Big Board (and I know there'll be a lot of movement before the draft), the available PFs are currently: 2 of the top 3 spots, #8 and then a huge gap before the next one at #28. If we somehow win the lottery, we really need to target one of the PFs (even though I'd love to have Ivey). There are a number of Cs in the middle of the first round to help with big man depth (Mark Williams & Walker Kessler look great on paper). There's only 3-4 PGs but 9 SG's expected in the first round. But when it comes down to it, I'm trusting the Spurs scouts.

[DesignatedT]

Right now my big board probably goes

Smith
Banchero
Ivey

Unsure about the Holmgren kid from Gonzaga. Very thin and small frame.

[cjw]

If we land in the 5,6,7 range, that will be good. Worst spot is actually 4. Every year, at least two teams have jumped into the top 4, meaning 4 is always SOL, and gets bumped.

But 4 also has a higher chance of jumping into the top three (36.6%, just below the 40.2% of the three worst teams). And nearly a 70% chance of being top five. If you’re 5th, only 65% of top five. At 6th, it drops off substantially as only way into top five is for your ball to come up (basically 27%).

[stnick2261]

I wonder if we are able to get Ivey with our natural pick... would we be able to trade our other picks to reach for Keegan Murray as well?

[R. DeMurre]

You mentioned Jonathan Issac...many have mentioned John Collins (I'm not endorsing anyone myself) but if the FO believes in one of those then DJ + JC/JI etc +#6 pick + future 1st looks pretty good and interests me personally more than a long rebuild.

I've been following Jonathan Isaac pretty closely for a while and he's such an interesting player, but also full of contradictions and some red flags. I think he has DPOY potential. He's unvaccinated-- that hasn't been an issue, because he hasn't been playing due to knee surgery. He's extremely religious, but when he informed his teammates that he'd be preaching at a local church, not a single one showed up to support him. He was the only guy on his team in the bubble to not take a knee during the national anthem. He seems at least relatively reasonable in interviews, but I wonder if he'll be a locker room problem going forward. That, plus staying healthy has been an issue. Without the issues, I think he really is the perfect trade target, but the more I've looked at him, the more worried I've gotten about his fit in terms of temperament & personality.

[Chinook]

If we land in the 5,6,7 range, that will be good. Worst spot is actually 4. Every year, at least two teams have jumped into the top 4, meaning 4 is always SOL, and gets bumped.

wut?

The fourth spot is objectively better than the 5-7 spots. They not only have a better chance of moving into the top three picks, but they have a better chance at both the fourth and fifth spots than the other teams. I discussed this math in a different post, but the fourth slot's chances of getting a top-five pick are about .55, while the chances of the fifth slot getting a top-five pick are only .44. That's a 25-percent increase in odds by being in a higher slot.

The fifth slot has a higher chance of "moving up" than the fourth slot because they have an additional spot they can move up into. But if you change the question to "not moving down", the actual value difference is apparent. There's a 98-percent chance at least one team jumps into the top-four from fifth or lower, but that does not necessitate it coming at the expense of any of the team's individually. The sixth-slot Kings might hop up to the fourth pick while the fourth-slot Thunder hop into the third pick while the third-slot Rockets fall to the fifth pick and the fifth-slot Pacers drop to the sixth pick. That's a fair bit of movement, but the fourth slot actually made out better.

I think what you're noticing is that the higher up you go, the more dramatic the variance of the lottery is likely to be. With the flattening, the downside looks to be artificially magnified on the fourth pick, but if you look at a lottery chart to see the odds of a team keeping their pick slot, you'll see that the fifth and sixth picks are the ones who have the worst chances while in general the lower teams are the ones who get stability in return for less total expected return.

[lmbebo]

Good find... When it comes to trading up I agree the Spurs will at least explore it but, I think it's more likely (assuming we're at 6, 18, and 20) that we either 1) package 18 and 20 to move up than packaging it all to move into the top 4 or 2) trade 20 to acquire a future 1st + assets to balance out how many and when we bring in rookies.

We can all see that the Spurs have finally chosen a direction (rebuild) but the timeline of that rebuild hasn't revealed itself yet. Is it a slow rebuild or a shorter term one. A long rebuild doesn't fit with DJ and if we choose that route we probably trade him for draft capital too however, if we want a shorter rebuild using our #6 makes sense and trading back one of the other picks for future assets from a team we expect to be worse than us in upcoming years makes sense too. That leaves the other pick and a couple of our young guys to trade for a player the FO believes can be a ceiling lifter. You mentioned Jonathan Issac...many have mentioned John Collins (I'm not endorsing anyone myself) but if the FO believes in one of those then DJ + JC/JI etc +#6 pick + future 1st looks pretty good and interests me personally more than a long rebuild.

I think timeline is fluid. Is it natural with picks, how do those picks pan out? Do we get a franchise cornerstone or another piece of the puzzle, but missing that one part that makes it all work?

Do we try and trade pics and young parts for a known star?

[mystargtr34]

If the Spurs don't get a top 5 pick and end up in the 6-8 range, perhaps they take Jalen Duren and trade Jakob for a 4. That obviously depends if they think Duren will be a player.

[CGD]

Good find... When it comes to trading up I agree the Spurs will at least explore it but, I think it's more likely (assuming we're at 6, 18, and 20) that we either 1) package 18 and 20 to move up than packaging it all to move into the top 4 or 2) trade 20 to acquire a future 1st + assets to balance out how many and when we bring in rookies.

We can all see that the Spurs have finally chosen a direction (rebuild) but the timeline of that rebuild hasn't revealed itself yet. Is it a slow rebuild or a shorter term one. A long rebuild doesn't fit with DJ and if we choose that route we probably trade him for draft capital too however, if we want a shorter rebuild using our #6 makes sense and trading back one of the other picks for future assets from a team we expect to be worse than us in upcoming years makes sense too. That leaves the other pick and a couple of our young guys to trade for a player the FO believes can be a ceiling lifter. You mentioned Jonathan Issac...many have mentioned John Collins (I'm not endorsing anyone myself) but if the FO believes in one of those then DJ + JC/JI etc +#6 pick + future 1st looks pretty good and interests me personally more than a long rebuild.

The other scenario that is interesting is that after the deadline yesterday Portland got a nice NOLA pick, which means they could well have something like 8 & 9. Is there a world where Spurs with 6 move back to nab 8 and another asset?

[Mr. Body]

The other scenario that is interesting is that after the deadline yesterday Portland got a nice NOLA pick, which means they could well have something like 8 & 9. Is there a world where Spurs with 6 move back to nab 8 and another asset?

Yes.

[mo7888]

The other scenario that is interesting is that after the deadline yesterday Portland got a nice NOLA pick, which means they could well have something like 8 & 9. Is there a world where Spurs with 6 move back to nab 8 and another asset?

I don't expect the Nola pick to be that high but, if it is, it's certainly possible...

[BatManu20]

If the Spurs don't get a top 5 pick and end up in the 6-8 range, perhaps they take Jalen Duren and trade Jakob for a 4. That obviously depends if they think Duren will be a player.

Think if that happened then Keegan Murray would be the pick. Just a gut feeling, given our needs and how the Spurs rate players.

[CGD]

If the Spurs don't get a top 5 pick and end up in the 6-8 range, perhaps they take Jalen Duren and trade Jakob for a 4. That obviously depends if they think Duren will be a player.

Gotta think that after this trade deadline, Jakob + one of our picks is in play.

If they don’t move him by the start of the next season spurs arent really recovering any value for him.

[dbestpro]

I think that Ivey and Ty Ty Washington will be top 3 picks along with Smith by draft night. The big position is too marginalized for the top three to be bigs.

[BatManu20]

Another big game for Murray. Doesn’t have the upside some of the other prospects do, but he’s going to be a good two-way player, me thinks.

[Thomas82]

Gotta think that after this trade deadline, Jakob + one of our picks is in play.

If they don’t move him by the start of the next season spurs arent really recovering any value for him.

I can easily see him being traded on draft day.

[talkspurs]

I really like Kessler and he has been slowly moving up the draft boards he is an athletic 7'1 who is a shot blocking machine and is starting to show off a little on the offensive side. Just go and watch the game Aubrun vs. LSU he killed them I mean he destroyed them with block and rebounds I was impressed

Is he pretty athletic? aka could he guard some (switches) on the wings and decently against a PF or is he more of your traditional big center?

[talkspurs]

If we land in the 5,6,7 range, that will be good. Worst spot is actually 4. Every year, at least two teams have jumped into the top 4, meaning 4 is always SOL, and gets bumped.

stocks use this but I think it works here.

"past results are not indicative of future results"

[BatManu20]

Jabari Smith playing against Texas A&M right now on ESPN. Love his shooting ability and his length defensively, but he’s gotta be more aggressive offensively. Hard to really judge anything in this game where auburn’s blowing them out by 20 and he’s playing less minutes, but I’m definitely noticing in his more recent games that he’s too timid offensively. He lets the game come to him which can be good at times, but he disappears for too long of stretches. Needs to be more aggressive on that end. Too unselfish for my liking.

[Mr. Body]

Jabari Smith playing against Texas A&M right now on ESPN. Love his shooting ability and his length defensively, but he’s gotta be more aggressive offensively. Hard to really judge anything in this game where auburn’s blowing them out by 20 and he’s playing less minutes, but I’m definitely noticing in his more recent games that he’s too timid offensively. He lets the game come to him which can be good at times, but he disappears for too long of stretches. Needs to be more aggressive on that end. Too unselfish for my liking.

Jabar Smith has an incredible frame and great shooting and what appears to be good defense. He just plays like a role-player to me, a spot-up guy. A very good one, but I don't really see a star, just a very high-end starter.

[Mr. Body]

Another big game for Murray. Doesn’t have the upside some of the other prospects do, but he’s going to be a good two-way player, me thinks.

Keegan Murray is the player or type of player I hope the Spurs get, as I see them slipping down several spots in the draft. He is limited in ways, but is aggressive and fills a huge need.

[BatManu20]

Jabar Smith has an incredible frame and great shooting and what appears to be good defense. He just plays like a role-player to me, a spot-up guy. A very good one, but I don't really see a star, just a very high-end starter.

Agreed. Admittedly I was a bit enamored with a few of his early and mid season performances where he looked like a potential two-way star. And his shooting ability is legit. But his scoring and %’s have both gone down lately. Still think he’s a good prospect, but probably won’t ever be a star. I think Jaden Ivey has the most star potential of the top 4 prospects so far. He’s my pet cat right now, despite our glaring need for a PF.