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They don't own their own pick this year.
Gonna suck when the lakers end up getting a better pick than us
They don't own their own pick this year.
Pelicans with McCollum, Ingram, Big V and some good role players are not a ty team at all. Westbrook and LeBron were twin turnover factories out there. They're a mess, but I still think they get a play-in.
Pacers beat the Celtics, but they're still a few behind in the win column and likely won't drop. The real risk factors are those behind the Spurs and tumbling.
I also think the Lakers will make the play in.
Agreed about teams like Blazers( pretty sure they will be behind us), Knicks and Wizards ( 4 games ahead of us). If the Spurs don't make the play in, they will have a top 10 pick so it's a good thing that NO beat the Lakers.
NO is the team to watch imo.
Spurs will end up where the picked the last 2 years, around 9-11 range.
Yeah, haven't really looked at the remaining schedule until now. Unlike last year, which seemed brutal, the remainder is really easy, including three against the Trailblazers. I'd be stunned if the Spurs don't either 1) make the play-in, or 2) drop to the last third of the lottery.
The next five games will give us some idea. For the play in i'm not sure, they have the same kind of schedule with the Pels ( 19 th strongest and 21th strongest for the Pels) so they can miss it.
Spurs and Pels will also match up two time.
Not only do the Lakers not have their first round pick this year the Spurs own the Lakers 2nd round pick. It could end up in the 30s if they keep this up.
I didn't think it was possible but LA is in worse shape than the 2012-2013 all-star team with Nash and a semi-prime Dwight.
I'd imagine James will be shutting it down with a sore knee in the next couple weeks.
In the their last 22 games, I count 4 games they'd be favor to win - Washington x2, Minnesota, OKC. I'd imagine San Antonio will beat them a week from today but maybe Pop will be charitable.
I'm not ashamed to admit I'm taking extreme pleasure in their catapult to the bottom of the standings. Except unlike 2005 and 2014-2017, there's no top 10 pick to lessen the blow from a disaster of a season. It's pretty epic for Lakers haters
Wait… is LA’s pick protected next year? Tankathon lists it as a top 10 protected pick. If so, that would be a disaster for the Spurs IMO
If Lebron wants out this summer they should trade him away for assets. Ride it one more year with the horrible Westbrook contract and enter 2023 free agency with a ton of cap space and AD to draw free agents. Its the Lakers and players always want to sign with them so it will all probably work out for them.
Their pick conveys to New Orleans if it falls 1-10 and to Memphis if it falls 11-30. Jokes on them.
We don’t have a Lakers first rounder, this year, next, or ever.
Kiss the top 10 goodbye
It's not a huge surprise. The Spurs' point differential is much better than their record indicates.
Our pick:
RAPTOR expected record
34-48
Tied 9th worst record with Lakers
Expected draft odds:
20.2% Top 4
4.5% First
50.7% 9th
29.1% pick is worse than 9th
Toronto FRP
RAPTOR Expected record
45-37
7th in the East
13th overall
In the play in tournament
Pick Conveys at #18 assuming play in goes chalk.
RAPTOR Playoff chance: 73%
So 27% chance it does not convey currently.
Boston FRP
RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
3rd in the East
9th overall
Pick Conveys at #22
Raptor Playoff Chance: 99%
So <1% chance it does not convey.
Raptors playoff chances have taken a substantial hit. Obviously still overwhelming favorites, but a ~10% drop is significant. That 10% drop does equal a pick that is 2 picks earlier, so the increased risk does come with a slight value increase.
Our playoff odds have remained about the same at 7% but the team is playing as well as they have at any point this season and I expect that with a lot of winnable games coming up and the Lakers in free fall these odds will likely increase. The tank is on life support if not fully dead at the moment.
Haven’t looked into any of the math behind this but surely the odds take into account some form
of momentum and the remaining schedule?
The model runs a monte carlo simulation of all the remaining games with the odds their system uses based on the players on the team (accounts for injuries as of today). The strength of your team is based on the strength of individual players based on stats up to this point in the year. If players overperform their previous stats and stature in the model, then you're likely to overperform the models expectations. Given how well Lonnie and Devin have played since the deadline, I'm pretty sure this is likely for the Spurs. Even if they just perform to the same level they have all year then the Spurs will still go close to .500 the rest of the way. One weak point is that these models are slow to catch onto trends so things like the Spurs playing well and the Lakers playing poorly aren't fully realized into the model.
The Spurs point differential does indicate they are a better team than their record, but outliers happen. There is a place in the distribution where you underperform the PD just like there's a place where you do the opposite. Spurs have also just had trouble beating teams in the fourth which is likely due to inexperience (although I think Pop playes a fairly large role in this as well - he is NOT a good fourth quarter coach anymore) so this likely makes them more prone to underperform their PD.
The play-in confuses the out of me in terms of understanding draft slotting. This Raptors pick is 1-14 protected, but does that mean if Raptors get a play-in slot of 9th or 10th, and make the playoffs, do they get bumped down in draft order (below 14), and Spurs get that pick?
If not, if they get the 10th seed, which is currently the 13th worst record, they keep the 1st and make the playoffs. That would suck bigtime.
If the Raptors make the playoffs, whether they are the 8th, 9th, or 10th, position recordwise it won't matter, the pick will convey. The best pick we can get from them is going to be the 15th. If the Raptors are the 7th or 8th seed, but fail in the play in, then we won't get their pick and they will have a top 14 pick. Teams that make the playoffs pick 15-30 based on their records. Teams that do not make the playoffs pick 1-14 based on the lottery whose odds are based on their record. No team who makes the playoffs can get a pick before a team who does not make the playoffs regardless of their record.
Does that make it clear?
Right, we have a second. I was referring to the fear of them getting a higher draft pick than us. To me that would be a disaster since this team desperately needs a franchise player and the possibility that they would be closer to one with a higher draft pick.
I see your other post that clarifies if it falls within the ranges of 1-10 it still doesn’t stay with the Lakers. So that gives me so peace of mind. Let the Lakers burn.
Spurs point differential: When they get on top of teams, they can blow them out. Other side, they have struggled to close out a ton of games. Quite a lot of them. They have no closer and as a team don't know how to crank up things on both sides of the ball.
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