Official 2022 NBA Draft thread

[exstatic]

Keegan Murray might go top 5 by draft day if he keeps this up.

The one thing working against him is that he will be very close to 22 on draft night. The history of 22 and lottery crossover isn’t good. He’s also only a sop re. We got two years of college experience from 19 YO Devin Vassell 2 years ago. What folks need to keep in mind is that a more finished product has less room for growth and improvement. If his physical profile isn’t eye popping, he’ll probably stay where he is.

[mo7888]

Another thing to keep in mind is that are a few teams that 'could' trade their picks in the top 10....

Indiana- is Carlise going to want a protracted rebuild or would he trade that pick for a player that can play between Haliburton and Turner next year?

Portland- if they keep Dame then they are probably trading the pick for more immediate help...if they trade him they keep the pick..

Sacramento- the Sabonis trade was a win now move in their minds...they badly want to make the playoffs and a 5-8 pick won't help there...Something like Josh + our 2nd 1st might get us their pick.

[ace3g]

[Mr. Body]

The one thing working against him is that he will be very close to 22 on draft night. The history of 22 and lottery crossover isn’t good. He’s also only a sop re. We got two years of college experience from 19 YO Devin Vassell 2 years ago. What folks need to keep in mind is that a more finished product has less room for growth and improvement. If his physical profile isn’t eye popping, he’ll probably stay where he is.

You keep saying this but it's not true.

[Mr. Body]

1. Watch out for Iowa in your brackets. They're playing well down stretches of games.

2. As for who Iowa just beat, Indiana... Trayce Jackson-Davis may not even get drafted -- he has no jumpshot -- but he's worth a look at some point. He's very athletic and a great weakside shot blocker. If he develops a J, he's an NBA player at least off the bench.

[duncan2150]

You keep saying this but it's not true.

they are so little example of 22 yrs old in the lottery that we can't make a generality. I have Mitc , Duarte last year, Toppin in 2020, Cam Johnson and Hachimura ( 21) in 2019, Kennard (21) in 2017. They were all late lottery and they don't dominate like Murray in College imo ( toppin maybe but in a weak division).

The other thing for Murray is that it's only his second year of NCAA and he made a massive improvement from yr 1 to 2, still i think it's maybe too high to take him at 5 but 9 or 10 he could be a really good.

[exstatic]

You keep saying this but it's not true.

Give me a list of the successful one and done era lottery picks that were 22. I’ll go first with the busts.

2006
Ike Diogo
2007
Al Thornton
Acie Law
2008
Joe Alexander
2009
Hasheem Thabeet
2010
Ekpe Udoh
Wesley Johnson
2011
JIMMER
2012
John Henson
2013
MCW
2014
None
2015
None
2016
Kris Dunn
Taurean Prince
Denzel Valentine
2017
Malik Monk

It got harder to find them as time went on, because TEAMS STOPPED DRAFTING THEM.

Now, you put together your list of really good 22+ YO lottery picks in the one and done era, 2006 to present.

[Mr. Body]

Give me a list of the successful one and done era lottery picks that were 22. I’ll go first with the busts.

2006
Ike Diogo
2007
Al Thornton
Acie Law
2008
Joe Alexander
2009
Hasheem Thabeet
2010
Ekpe Udoh
Wesley Johnson
2011
JIMMER
2012
John Henson
2013
MCW
2014
None
2015
None
2016
Kris Dunn
Taurean Prince
Denzel Valentine
2017
Malik Monk

It got harder to find them as time went on, because TEAMS STOPPED DRAFTING THEM.

Now, you put together your list of really good 22+ YO lottery picks in the one and done era, 2006 to present.

You said the history of the draft, which is hilariously wrong.

And none of this has to do with Keegan Murray as a player.

[Mr. Body]

Chris Duarte was 24 when was picked last year in the lottery and he's good.

Derrick White should have been a lottery pick. There are a number of older players who weren't lottery picks that should hav been.

Basically, this is wrong thinking on your part. There's such a lousy sample size that it confuses what you're actually looking at. First, you got to realize most lottery picks turn out to be . Then you've got to realize a number of older players are good in this league, and should have been lottery picks.

The next step is questioning what teams are actually doing with their picks in the lottery. The fact that some seniors have been picked in that range and haven't been great isn't necessarily a sign of anything. It definitely doesn't mean anything about whetherh Keegan Murray will be good or not.

[exstatic]

You said the history of the draft, which is hilariously wrong.

And none of this has to do with Keegan Murray as a player.

We live and breathe in the one and done era. Bringing up players from the 80s or 90s isn’t germaine to current or recent drafts. So, you’ve got nothing, then…

If we’re looking at 22YO PFs, I’m on team Jalen Smith. He’s 2” taller, has a 3.25” wider span, and is killing it with Indy, shooting 68% from 2 and 42% from 3 in 11 games with Indy. Those are numbers in the NBA.

[PhantomDashCam]

I didn’t know Keegan was capable of that kind of volume, 3 point shooting. Just absurd play with this guy.

In an age of drafts dominated by Guard selections, genuinely refreshing to see 4 legit FC players potentially picked in the top 5 or 6…

[PhantomDashCam]

I believe he can go #5 as well...i think 5-8 is his range...

I asl think there's a pretty big drop off after pick #8....

My top 8 are Smith, Chet, Banchero, Ivey, Sharpe, Murray, Duren, and Griffin ...in that order..

Griffin will be an interesting one to watch on draft day. I’ve read that teams are very interested in seeing his medical due to the litany of injuries for such a young player through his career to date…
I like the list though.

[RC_Drunkford]

would love to get Keegan Murray. Basically the perfect role player we need at the 4. He just doesn't have much iso scoring potential, but you never know

[rankingtear]

Keegan looked better for a translation stand point in that Indiana game. More threes off different actions, played more like an NBA 4 than a college 5.

[BackHome]

I like Murray but let’s realistic he is 6’8 PF he is not going to be able to do a lot of what he does in the NBA still like him but not a top 6 for me.

[mystargtr34]

I like Murray but let’s realistic he is 6’8 PF he is not going to be able to do a lot of what he does in the NBA still like him but not a top 6 for me.

Very few teams in the modern NBA have the old traditional 4's who are 6'10 or 6'11 and play in the post that would render a 6'8 PF like Murray undersized. Besides, most 4's shoot threes and drive to the rim, as opposed to playing in the post. Murray's game would cause problems for a lot of the bigger 4's due to his ability to space the floor and drive to the basket.

[Mr. Body]

I don't think Murray is a top option in the NBA, but he'll be a Malcolm Brogdan type who just gets done.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Most of you don't like to talk about second rounders, but... Johnny Juzang. Just do it.

[Thomas82]

If we are in the 8-11 range he could be the BPA left on the board..

I would love it!!

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

My top 8 are Smith, Chet, Banchero, Ivey, Sharpe, Murray, Duren, and Griffin ...in that order..

Good list. I'd add Johnny Davis and probably remove Duren. Don't see him as more than a rim running big, say someone like Richaun Holmes. Not great value imo. If he's taken in the 14-20 range where the Spurs second first projects to be then it'd be fine but I suppose some team like Portland will reach for him earlier.

I'm also somewhat skeptical of Griffin as well. He has a long injury history and seems quite stiff athletically or more like no functional athleticism, although this might be cause of Duke's poor spacing due to playing Banchero and Williams clogging the paint all the time. He also has a good % from 3 but has a weird, wide frame when shooting it. I think there will be teams higher on Mathurin than Griffin.

[exstatic]

Good list. I'd add Johnny Davis and probably remove Duren. Don't see him as more than a rim running big, say someone like Richaun Holmes. Not great value imo. If he's taken in the 14-20 range where the Spurs second first projects to be then it'd be fine but I suppose some team like Portland will reach for him earlier.

I'm also somewhat skeptical of Griffin as well. He has a long injury history and seems quite stiff athletically or more like no functional athleticism, although this might be cause of Duke's poor spacing due to playing Banchero and Williams clogging the paint all the time. He also has a good % from 3 but has a weird, wide frame when shooting it. I think there will be teams higher on Mathurin than Griffin.

Duren is almost as young as Primo was last year, about 1 month older. He a freakish athlete with great defensive instincts. I’m glad he hasn’t shown a lot yet. He might still be there if we pick 9-10. The Stepien has an article on various types of rim protectors that may interest some of you, and Duren is mentioned in several categories.

[CGD]

Another thing to keep in mind is that are a few teams that 'could' trade their picks in the top 10....

Indiana- is Carlise going to want a protracted rebuild or would he trade that pick for a player that can play between Haliburton and Turner next year?

Portland- if they keep Dame then they are probably trading the pick for more immediate help...if they trade him they keep the pick..

Sacramento- the Sabonis trade was a win now move in their minds...they badly want to make the playoffs and a 5-8 pick won't help there...Something like Josh + our 2nd 1st might get us their pick.

Of those, i only really think Portland is in play since they own the NOLA pick. That would give them potentially 2 top ten picks to play with.

I could maybe see it with Indy, but can also see them targeting Kegan Murray. Like Duarte, an older, plug and play rookie that would fit perfect with Halliburton, Duarte, and Turner.

[R. DeMurre]

If Obi Toppin and Chris Duarte are examples of older draft lottery "successes," then the bar is being set pretty low. Toppin plays 15 mpg for a terrible Knicks team whose starting PF is having a terrible year. Duarte, after a relatively strong start, has leveled off as a slightly net negative impact player on a weak 23-45 Indiana team. Both guys might improve a little over their current showings, and outliers always exist, but I don't think either guy is a very good example of why drafting older players makes sense generally.

[jjspur]

would love to get Keegan Murray. Basically the perfect role player we need at the 4. He just doesn't have much iso scoring potential, but you never know

Totally agree. We probably won't get in the top 5 (odds are against us), so Murray would be be a pretty good pick. I'm just not so confident that the spurs would select him since they tend to pick more for potential than actual talent. Sometimes that strategy works but more often than no it doesn't.

[BatManu20]

Most of you don't like to talk about second rounders, but... Johnny Juzang. Just do it.

Juzang should’ve gone pro after last season. He was a projected mid-1st round pick, maybe mid-20’s at the latest. He came back this season and absolutely tanked his draft stock. Now he’s a mid-to-late 2nd round pick.