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  1. #1101
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    No reason to think Murray won't still go 5 or 6. The demand/scarcity of modern fours plus the post '14 Spurs' putrid luck and longstanding inability to competently fill that position will conspire to make sure he doesn't fall to them at 8 or 9.

    Trading up is now conceivable, but if they're going to do that, it needs to be for someone with projected star upside.

  2. #1102
    Believe. PhantomDashCam's Avatar
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    Murray's stock has little do with Iowa failing to advance (there's ample tape on him already), and everything to do with the young guys behind him and their performances/declarations.

    Sharpe, Duren, Mathurin, Wesley, Sochan, perhaps even more; could all leap frog him based on versatility, age, upside and a case of recency bias. Keegan has no control of that. Most GMs aren't looking for the safe pick when in the lottery.

    Most teams aren't as depleted at the '4' as the Spurs either, especially when arguably 3 of the top 4 picks are likely to be able to play it...

  3. #1103
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    If Gonzaga get through this game they’ll play Memphis. Chet and Duren going at it would be good to see.
    Ask and you shall receive. Looks like coach got to his player in the second part of second half. Zags and Chet woke up.

  4. #1104
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    Maybe one of them leapfrogs him (I did leave wiggle room); I'd be shocked if more did. Every year recently, a modern four shot up between now at the draft (Hunter, Williams, Barnes).

    Wrong. Most GM's are looking for safe in the lottery because it's a happy medium where blame can generally be minimized.

    Not as depleted as the Spurs at the 4, but in need all the same or even if they're not, looking for reinforcements. Granted, Murray is a true 4 as opposed to the preferred type who'd have played 3 a generation ago, but still.

  5. #1105
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    Murray's stock has little do with Iowa failing to advance (there's ample tape on him already), and everything to do with the young guys behind him and their performances/declarations.

    Sharpe, Duren, Mathurin, Wesley, Sochan, perhaps even more; could all leap frog him based on versatility, age, upside and a case of recency bias. Keegan has no control of that. Most GMs aren't looking for the safe pick when in the lottery.

    Most teams aren't as depleted at the '4' as the Spurs either, especially when arguably 3 of the top 4 picks are likely to be able to play it...
    I think Sharpe is already ahead of him and Duren is right there with him...

  6. #1106
    Believe. PhantomDashCam's Avatar
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    I preface this by saying I personally like Keegan, and would be happy taking him 5-6, however...

    Going back to the 2015 draft, 5.4% of lottery picks have been sop res - 18 picks in total. The numbers get even lower for Juniors and Seniors.

    Obi Toppin was considered "safe" and has looked far from it in close to his first two seasons. He is sometimes cited in relation to Keegan.
    I personally think they're completely different players but it may give some GMs pause.

    If you go to Keegan's first year tape, some scouts thought he would have to play "well" to simply compete for a first round spot. Some of that doubt may carry over...

    Is a seasoned Keegan Murray a safer player than a current raw Jalen Duren, even at this stage of development, when heading to the NBA? What about AJ Griffin, (assuming no injury red-flags of course)?
    The answers may surprise...

  7. #1107
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    My top 8 are still Smith, Chet, Banchero, Ivey, Sharpe, Murray, Duren, and Griffin ...in that order..

    Now that I've reiterated that I'll add...I'd be fine taking Duren or maybe Griffin ahead of Murray if we are high on a darkhorse 4 for our 2nd 1st...

  8. #1108
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    I preface this by saying I personally like Keegan, and would be happy taking him 5-6, however...

    Going back to the 2015 draft, 5.4% of lottery picks have been sop res - 18 picks in total. The numbers get even lower for Juniors and Seniors.

    Obi Toppin was considered "safe" and has looked far from it in close to his first two seasons. He is sometimes cited in relation to Keegan.
    I personally think they're completely different players but it may give some GMs pause.

    If you go to Keegan's first year tape, some scouts thought he would have to play "well" to simply compete for a first round spot. Some of that doubt may carry over...

    Is a seasoned Keegan Murray a safer player than a current raw Jalen Duren, even at this stage of development, when heading to the NBA? What about AJ Griffin, (assuming no injury red-flags of course)?
    The answers may surprise...
    This has come up before, but in my view there are flaws in this approach. Basically, it's this: for a good number of years, the draft culls any young players that are likely to be drafted by the time they were juniors or seniors much earlier than those years. It usually wasn't that case, but now it is. A player like Josh Primo goes in the lottery, or a Duren, and so on; teams are likely to grab them very early and spend money/years training them.

    Good enough. The problem, now, is in assuming that any player that gets through this gauntlet, i.e. is a senior by the time hits the draft, is therefore not very good or cannot improve. Basically, because he has not been drafted yet.

    That makes sense, but in this case, this is actually only Keegan Murray's second year of playing college basketball. And he made a terrific leap between years.

    So... we're (potentially) punishing him for his age, but not recognizing his experience. He can definitely not pan out, but my point is that he's more like an older sop re in college than a senior.

  9. #1109
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    This has come up before, but in my view there are flaws in this approach. Basically, it's this: for a good number of years, the draft culls any young players that are likely to be drafted by the time they were juniors or seniors much earlier than those years. It usually wasn't that case, but now it is. A player like Josh Primo goes in the lottery, or a Duren, and so on; teams are likely to grab them very early and spend money/years training them.

    Good enough. The problem, now, is in assuming that any player that gets through this gauntlet, i.e. is a senior by the time hits the draft, is therefore not very good or cannot improve. Basically, because he has not been drafted yet.

    That makes sense, but in this case, this is actually only Keegan Murray's second year of playing college basketball. And he made a terrific leap between years.

    So... we're (potentially) punishing him for his age, but not recognizing his experience. He can definitely not pan out, but my point is that he's more like an older sop re in college than a senior.
    That makes sense if teams are judging him on his experience. If however, teams are looking at it from the perspective of how old he'd be at the end of his first contract (after his rookie contract) then you're evaluating on how many years you control him while he's in his prime. In some cases players may be towards the end of their prime at that point. Now, in Murray's case I don't necessarily think it's a big knock on him because he doesn't rely on athleticism as much as some players. For instance, if Duren were 22 he'd be knocked much harder because his athleticism is such a large part of his game.

  10. #1110
    Believe. PhantomDashCam's Avatar
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    This has come up before, but in my view there are flaws in this approach. Basically, it's this: for a good number of years, the draft culls any young players that are likely to be drafted by the time they were juniors or seniors much earlier than those years. It usually wasn't that case, but now it is. A player like Josh Primo goes in the lottery, or a Duren, and so on; teams are likely to grab them very early and spend money/years training them.

    Good enough. The problem, now, is in assuming that any player that gets through this gauntlet, i.e. is a senior by the time hits the draft, is therefore not very good or cannot improve. Basically, because he has not been drafted yet.

    That makes sense, but in this case, this is actually only Keegan Murray's second year of playing college basketball. And he made a terrific leap between years.

    So... we're (potentially) punishing him for his age, but not recognizing his experience. He can definitely not pan out, but my point is that he's more like an older sop re in college than a senior.
    I agree with this and that is flawed. But Keegan took such a massive leap already, is it unreasonable to think another is likely required to justify a 5th-6th selection on a draft revision in a few years?

    The data seems to show that Sop res are on the rise in regards to lottery prognostications most likely for the reasons you have sighted. (2019, 2020 accounted for 50% of Sop res taken in that time and there maybe another 4-6 taken this year).

    I wouldn’t want to penalise him but I think his selected position is still extremely fluid based on the reasons I’ve cited.

  11. #1111
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    Keegan reminds me of Channing Frye. So the question I have is how good would Channing Frye be in todays NBA. And I have no idea lol

  12. #1112
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    The problem with most juniors and seniors is that the players who would have been their junior or senior quality compe ion are gone already, so they’re playing against meh upperclassman and players who are younger and less physically developed, so they can usually physically dominate them. They won’t be able to do that in the NBA. It leads to, in most cases, a false evaluation of value. Most draft analysts, starting way back with Chad Ford like 15 years ago, assess a penalty for age.

  13. #1113
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    Yet another touted prospect, TyTy Washington, also had a pretty lousy game. But then I'm not even sure why he's been suggestd as a top 10 pick other than going to UK and being pretty much the only PG in the draft.

  14. #1114
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Yet another touted prospect, TyTy Washington, also had a pretty lousy game. But then I'm not even sure why he's been suggestd as a top 10 pick other than going to UK and being pretty much the only PG in the draft.

    I absolutely hate TyTy Washington as a draft pick. Always have. His performance doesn't surprise me.

    Gonzaga played against a very weak 4.24 SOS this season. There are a lot of guys in the D-League who could look like potential Top 5 picks, if they got to play against weak college compe ion. I think Holmgren has very little to gain, and a lot to lose. If he comes up weak against the better teams that are in the tourney, I could see him slipping as low as 5, depending on how the other top guys play.

    Iowa played a much better SOS, compared to Zaga, and Murray was consistently good for the last month and a half. He had another good game, even though they lost. The early exit only means that he doesn't have any more chances to wow scouts. If the Spurs get the ping pong ball, I would be happy to hear them call his name. I think he is probably the best that the Spurs can reasonably hope to get out of their pick. (And that's only if last night's stupid win didn't mess it up.)

  15. #1115
    Dyna5ty BatManu20's Avatar
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    My top 8 are still Smith, Chet, Banchero, Ivey, Sharpe, Murray, Duren, and Griffin ...in that order..

    Now that I've reiterated that I'll add...I'd be fine taking Duren or maybe Griffin ahead of Murray if we are high on a darkhorse 4 for our 2nd 1st...
    Spurs aren’t going to have a shot at any of these dudes tbh.

  16. #1116
    Dyna5ty BatManu20's Avatar
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    Yea Chet will go #1.





  17. #1117
    44-50-21-1 Biggems's Avatar
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    latest NBADraftRoom mock

    7 - PF Keegan Murray
    17 - SF Kendall Brown
    20 - C Walker Kessler
    45 - SF Caleb Houston

    IMO, that would be a pretty nice haul.

  18. #1118
    44-50-21-1 Biggems's Avatar
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    PF Oscar Tshiebwe - Kentucky

    I want him in the 2nd Round.....his rebounding numbers remind me of Dennis Rodman.....I don't care if he is only 6'9, he has had 5 games of over 20 rebounds, maxing out at 28. He only had 2 games of less than 10 rebounds and in those he had 7 and 8.

  19. #1119
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    latest NBADraftRoom mock

    7 - PF Keegan Murray
    17 - SF Kendall Brown
    20 - C Walker Kessler
    45 - SF Caleb Houston

    IMO, that would be a pretty nice haul.
    Yeah, that would be next to ideal.

    I just know the Spurs will do something wild and unexpected. If they get a top 4 pick it wouldn't surprise me if they traded it away.

  20. #1120
    "The ball don't lie." dbestpro's Avatar
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    Big ten players for the most part are over rated. The tournament proves this.

  21. #1121
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    Spurs aren’t going to have a shot at any of these dudes tbh.
    Possibly....but I think we stay in the top 8 so we'd be able to get in of them..

  22. #1122
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    Yeah, that would be next to ideal.

    I just know the Spurs will do something wild and unexpected. If they get a top 4 pick it wouldn't surprise me if they traded it away.
    Interesting. They will pass on Banchero or Ivey for you ? don't see a team drafting Murray with a pick 4 to 6.

  23. #1123
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    Murray should not go before 7 if the spurs move up. You take the younger Griffin or Sharpe ahead of him.

  24. #1124
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    Spurs aren’t going to have a shot at any of these dudes tbh.
    If they don’t let Lonnie mess it up. The guy is playing for his next contract, while Murray has a shot at MIP. J-Rich is auditioning for a permanent gig . Spurs have players like Zollins and Landale who are hungry for the NBA. While Keldon is Keldon. It’s difficult to tank with these guys tbh

  25. #1125
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Interesting artical on the distribution of players who could be drafted. The etch-a-Sketch art is pretty awful, but his point is good.

    https://www.thestepien.com/2018/02/1...-talent-curve/

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