So my bet is Washington drops beneath the Spurs in the lottery, pushing the Spurs to #9. New Orleans stays above them. The questions are Los Angeles, who I think will eke out a play-in berth, and New York Knicks. I'm hoping New York has enough pride that they'll stick with it. So far they've been at least trying.
I agree Washington passes the Spurs and Spurs drop to 9. Wizards are going to mail it in completely now that they are out of the play-in race. I’m not worried about the Pelicans or the Lakers either.
The Knicks I am slightly concerned but as I’ve said before Thibs really is a moron imo and will continue to play his best players 40 minutes and they’ll win a couple more games and have more wins than the Spurs.
It's gonna be close...I only see 3 wins left on our schedule.. I'm gonna bet on us remaining at 8th...
Can you give me a summary of how picks stand as of now? I haven’t kept up to date with all their picks acquired through trades.
tankathon.com is a really good site
So far the Spurs have also been trying. I mentally have given up the hope for a top 4 pick. It may happen still but I am now not hoping for it bc it seems they aren’t either.
I’d rather they go all in the rest of the way fwiw. They may not be good enough to even make the play-in regardless but that should prompt an honest reassessment of where they are, players included. However, right now they are in a hot streak collectively so they may just catch fire at the right time. Should be fun to watch regardless.
Last edited by SAGirl; 03-24-2022 at 10:04 PM.
Will check it but I was looking more for clarification of whose picks they own. That wouldn’t be there right?
It's there. They own Boston's and Toronto essentially if Toronto makes the playoffs. In the 2nd round I believe they own Los Angeles's.
Toronto beating Cleveland was big. The Nets are 3 back with 9 to play. If Toronto wants to take that 6 spot, they've got a better chance now. But if the Nets manage to beat Miami and Milwaukee, they've got a good chance of finishing 9-0. And Toronto has three games that they're likely to lose. So even if everyone plays their best, not trying to tank, the Toronto pick could come down to the Raps vs. the T-Wolves.
Thanks completely answers my question. I didn’t know that was there!
I’m holding out some hope the Spurs can lose their next 3 @NO, @HOU, vs. MEM. Hopefully Ingram is back soon for NO, Houston’s young guys still play hard and they are almost a lock to be bottom 3, Morant is out for 2 weeks but that squad is like 17-2 without him.
Although the Spurs could easily go 3-0 also 😂
After the next 3 @NO, @HOU, vs MEM there's two games at home against Portland which are W's for sure. The remaining 4 games are all against good teams which should see the Spurs go 0-4 (@DEN, @MIN, @GS, @DAL). GS may be locked into the 3rd seed by that point and may just rest players which may make it tough to lose for the Spurs. Dallas should still be battling Utah for the 4-5 seed by the last game so that should be an L for the Spurs.
A 2-7 finish would be great, or even 3-6 should allow the Spurs to hold on to the 8th spot. 4-5 or better probably means the 9th or 10th draft spot.
Last edited by mystargtr34; 03-24-2022 at 10:18 PM.
When thinking of Spurs wins and what not consider that some good teams may be resting. I honestly don’t know whose seeding is already set, but it’s not uncommon to rest a star or two off the last game once seeding is clinched. It may factor in some of the last couple of games. Is there a point where the Spurs have no chance at the play in whatsoever?
^ man the Suns aren't phucking around.
Another win, @ Denver.
But ya when there is nothing to gain position wise we will see the smarter teams tanking.
CIA Pop playing Bryn Bryn early and now trying to stack wins vs Tankers. Asshat.
This is every pick owed by, or owed to every team.
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/dr...rafts/detailed
Last edited by exstatic; 03-25-2022 at 07:38 AM.
‘No chance’ is when they’re mathematically eliminated.
Before the Portland game, I had their remaining schedule at 4-6, which translates to 3-6 now. Spurs can really help their lotter chances by dropping the Saturday game in NO.
Losses are everything. Every loss firms up our grip on #8. Time is running out for teams like NY and Wash.
Thanks for this answer. When fans were hoping for the playoffs there used to be threads tracking their odds as the games went by. This year the interest is in the draft understandably. However, since the Spurs are trying to make this play in game I was wondering at what point they punch their ticket in or out mathematically as you say.
Maybe the site needs a thread to track that. I am a bad choice for creating it bc I don’t know… I’ll have to come back to this later.
Every team that makes the playoffs is out of the lottery. That's the dividing line, not getting into the play-in. The mechanics of the play-in are pretty simple:
7&8 play each other. The winner of that game becomes the 7 seed in the playoffs. They are out of the lottery.
The loser of 7&8 then plays the winner of the 9&10 game. (Obviously 9&10 have played each other.) The winner of that game becomes the 8 seed in the playoffs, and is also out of the lottery. The loser of that game is also out of the playoffs, and in the lottery. [Corrected 8&9 to read 9&10. Obviously we need some math refresher courses on Mount Olympus.]
So if the Spurs finish with the 10th worst record in the West, they would still have to win two games in a row to take the 8th seed in the playoffs, earning them the privelege of losing to Phoenix. That, apparently, would totally outweigh the benefit of having a shot at a Top 4 draft pick.
All the above applies to Toronto in the East, except that Toronto is sitting at 7. If they move to 6, they are automatically in the playoffs and we get their pick. If they finish 7, they would have to win a single game to make the playoffs, and we get their pick. Say all that backwards, and you see how we might not get their pick.
Last edited by ZeusWillJudge; 03-25-2022 at 10:17 AM.
This is the one that confuses the most.
2022 second round draft pick from L.A. Lakers
San Antonio will receive the L.A. Lakers' 2022 2nd round pick; Toronto will receive the more favorable of Chicago's 2022 2nd round pick and Detroit's 2022 2nd round pick and Sacramento will receive the less favorable of the two (via Chicago's right to swap for Detroit; via San Antonio's right to swap L.A. Lakers for Chicago or Detroit (via Washington); via Chicago to San Antonio; via San Antonio to Toronto; via Memphis to Sacramento) [Chicago-Detroit, 2/8/2018; Detroit-Memphis, 2/8/2018; L.A. Lakers-New Orleans-Washington, 7/6/2019; Chicago-Washington, 7/7/2019; Memphis-Sacramento, 11/19/2020; Brooklyn-Indiana-L.A. Lakers-San Antonio-Washington, 8/6/2021; Chicago-San Antonio, 8/11/2021; San Antonio-Toronto, 2/10/2022]
^ Toronto pick watch should be a thread imo.
That’s two trade transactions. The LA pick is free and clear and will convey. We traded that pick that is now listed as Torontos. Not sure why it would appear on our list any more.
Teams have been tossing in second round picks, and pick swaps, and then the next team makes them part of another deal, etc. The bottom line is this: Like Exstatic just said, the Spurs get LA's second round pick.
Toronto gets the better of Chicago's or Detroit's second round picks (obviously Detroit's). The Spurs were involved in that because of some of the re-trading of picks and swaps. The chain of events is spaghetti, but the outcome is that Toronto gets a REALLY good second round pick that could net a decent role player in this draft. Imagine the fun if Chicago's pick had been more desirable, since Chicago has to forfeit that pick.
LAL are 1.5 games up on the Spurs and their remaining schedule is a .
@NO
@DAL
@UTA
NO
DEN
@PHX
@GSW
OKC
DEN
Finishing above them would be such a bittersweet victory.
In reality, very bitter even though they are the Lakers.
You’re not taking into account the league fix factor. They want the Lakers in the post season, even if it’s just for a game.
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