There are 6 teams with 31-33 losses and 6 more with 28-29.
CLE, MIN (33)
TOR, CHI (32)
UTA, DEN (31)
PHI, BOS, DAL (29)
MIL, MIA, GSW (28)
If the Celtics go on a late season swoon without Williams, though it seems unlikely, they could fall behind one or more of the teams with 31-33 losses and be in the #21 or #22 draft slot. Alternately, if they continue their hot streak through the end of the season they could finish as the East #1 seed and ahead of the West #3, then the Spurs would get the 28th pick. Lots of variability here.
Naturally we should be rooting against the Celtics and for every other team in that 28-33 loss group, especially the other 28-29 loss teams. Boston finishing at the bottom of that group of 6 would give the Spurs the #23 pick.
The Celtics finishing schedule is vs MIA, vs IND, vs WAS, @CHI, @MIL, @MEM.
Memphis will almost certainly be locked into the #2 seed by that last game and there is a very good chance the Celtics will be still fighting for seeding. Indiana is most likely going to try and tank the rest of the way to drop past the Thunder. Washington is at least trying to win right now but so are the Celtics.
The other three games (vs MIA, @CHI, @MIL) should be hard-fought because all four teams (those three plus Boston) are fighting for seeding. I think Boston's most likely record in the last 6 games is 4-2, putting them at 51-31. That would put them ahead of the entire 31-33 loss group because I doubt Utah or Denver wins out, and probably ahead of around 3 teams in the 28-29 loss group. That would give the Spurs the #26 pick so I will use that as my baseline expectation for now.
Last edited by Seventyniner; 03-30-2022 at 06:27 PM.
It’s a good question. If they do, roster limits wise they’ll have tough choices on folks like Keita, Jock, Romeo and Tre. My hope is that they consolidate 2 into 1, or find a way to roll over the BOS pick to next year (stash, or trade for Top-18 protected 2023).
Theoretically that’s the upshot of the 4 picks (including the improving LAL one too). If they really want a guy at 7 for example, they should have the amo to move up from a 10-12 range of their natural pick.
I would sign that draft right now, but the chance that happens is very slim IMO. I was hoping for the chance at a top 4 pick to get Ivey or Banchero, or at least a top 8 pick and getting Mathurin, Johnny Davis or Shaedon Sharpe, but since the chances of that happening are slimmer by the minute (thanks to the ing Lakers, whom I want to win for the first time ever and they are going down in flames). So there's a real chance we pick at 15, 19/20 and 24/25... and in that case, I think all three might be gone by the first pick, very likely by the second, and almost certainly by the third. But getting 2 of those + Kendall Brown or Jovic would be a pretty good draft given the cir stances, IMO.
This draft's star potential certainly appears to go down steeply after the first 5 picks, but since that seems to be a pipe dream by now, Eason sounds pretty good.
Thats it ill be at the game Friday.
I think Johnny Davis slips some, maybe even to late lottery.
Top 4 looks locked (barring injury in pre-draft process), then you have a bunch of guys - Griffin, Murray, Sharpe, Duren, Mathurin, Dyson Daniels, Johnny Davis and perhaps a few more who are probably jockeying for position.
Out of those listed, for me it’s easy to envision at least a role to be played, initially when they enter the NBA.
With Davis, I’m not so sure…
What his position coming into the NBA? If he’s a SG, it means he’ll have to guard some 1s and 3s. Can he be a consistent perimeter shooter?
He’s had some terrific games and a great year overall but these questions may linger…
I think he might slip a bit from his highest projected spot (no. 5 a while ago), but I don't see him slipping past the first 10 picks. He sure needs to extend his range to the 3 pt line, but he's a good FT shooter and he can hit the midrange, I'd be willing to gamble on him getting there. He's smart and crafty, seems like a level headed guy. He's 6'4"/6'5", that's not great but adequate SG size... all prospects at that range have uncertainties and he's not the exception, but if he succeeds at addressing those areas his potential is pretty high and a worthy gamble.
Regarding the rest or your shortlist, I like it quite a bit, but AJ Griffin's injury history is very concerning and I'm not all that impressed with the rest of his game, Duren is raw and born in the wrong era, and Mathurin is unlikely to go much lower than 5-7 IMO. So depending on where the Spurs end up picking, he's one of the guys I'd be happy to take.
Yeah, he might slip but I don’t think he gets past 9 he gets you points and he can defend and rebound pretty good for someone his size only thing he needs to work on his 3 pointer which he should be able to do.
So that probably leaves:
Jalen Duren - C
Shaedon Sharpe - SG
Tari Eason - SF/PF
Dyson Daniels - SG
Johnny Davis's 3 point shot is fine. His shooting percentages are a bit misleading because he's the only good player on a bad team, so every defense keys on him and a huge number of his shot attempts are difficult, contested, off the dribble. In a different role and playing with better players I believe he'll shoot just fine. There's one caveat, though - a part of this might be because he simply cannot create enough separation for himself, which is worrying. I suppose this is what the scouts should evaluate and would determine his draft position.
Banchero is my top option as a player who I feel would fit in as an alpha dog go-to scorer the Spurs sorely need
but since that is becoming more and more unrealistic,
I can’t help but feel that Liddell is the next best thing to provide that, yes, even moreso than Keegan Murray…
Liddell’s scoring prowess and advanced skillset in the post while not needing to handle the ball for more than a few seconds at a time makes me easily envision him fit in flawlessly in the “second big” role Landale is playing right now. Liddell is a great shot blocker and can shoot 3’s as well.
With Keldon’s newfound versatile scoring ability, there’s no redundancy there either if he and Liddell were to share time on the court together.
if Liddell is who I think he is and can become a cross between a LaMarcus Aldridge-lite and Julius Randle, then it would add a new layer to the Spurs’ offense and make them much more deadly. There’s nobody quite like Liddell that has come out in several years.
I have some doubts about him but i hope you're right
One thing i don't agree is that sometimes he needs the ball a lot in the post, like 4-5 dribbles before a shoot. Not a fan of a pair with Johnson, they are not similar but having two 6'6/ 6'7 at the 3/4 is not that good imo tough they can rebound and Liddel can block.
After all that, i think Liddel could be an efficient nba player but i don't totally see the fit.
High praise. But I’ll say, your evaluations are usually spot on.
I'm pretty high on him as well but, not as high as I am on Keegan... I have Liddell in the 10-15 range... I think Randle is a natural comp...hopefully his shooting from 3 is better than Randle though... have you seen anything on Liddell's wingspan/ measurements as compared to Randle?
I couldn't find too much specific breakdown on EJ Liddel but found something here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y53KnyFxskw
This analyst mentions a wingspan of 7', among other interesting details.
Liddell had a 6’11.75” wingspan at the 2021 NBA Draft Combine.
Randle was 6'11" in 2013.
Dark Horse picks (if Brian Wright wants to go "Josh Primo" again and surprise us, so to speak)
1. Blake Wesley (Notre Dame)
2. Josh Minott (Memphis)
Both young and raw with tantalizing physical gifts.
Not saying this will happen, but looking at oddball choices, and these two could fit the profile. Just saying.
As long as its not another 6'4 shooting guard im good
Liddel reminds me of two fairly recent OSU draft picks -- Jared Sullinger and our own Deshaun Thomas. I just don't think Big Ten players translate even to the NCAAT much less the NBA much and especially these undersize guys.
I wouldn't hate Liddell. I was high on Malaki Branham as a bargain pick (still am), but Liddell carried that team without question and Branham may get taken too high to be a bargain now. He's not soem flash in the pan guy who strings together some good games against weak compe ion. He's gotten significantly better each season, at pretty much everything, which doesn't usually happen with a guy who doesn't work hard. He's bigger and stronger than Keegan Murray, and he's fearless. And as important as everything on that list, he can shoot the 3 at a high enough clip to force defenses to honor it.
I'm not sure I buy the alpha dog, first option part, but he would be a solid puzzle piece. I don't know if he's got the handles to put the ball on the floor more than once at the next level, which for me is sort of important for an alpha. Bit he at least has the mentality to put a team in his shoulders.
One more thing about Liddell that I don't see people mentioning. He was 18 in the nation for blocks. I think he had 3 or more blocks in half of Ohio State's games this year. He's 6'8" with a 7'+ wingspan, but he also has good footwork and knows how to use his size to his advantage. I was really watching for Branham, but the more I saw from Liddell, the more I liked him. I sort of expected him to come back for a fourth year, and I don't really know why.
Yeah, I agree with you Dejounte. I'm not sure I would pick him if the Spurs luck into a Top 4. But anywhere else they're likely to draft I would think he should at least be a contender.
Blake Wesley is a 6'5" shooting guard, so I guess we're good!
The progress on blocks are legit, i think He has a really good IQ. Still not that high on him, about the height he's 6'7 with shoes not 6'8.
One thing about liddel is the rebouding. Numbers are not that high.
I'm Ok with him with one of our late pick, imo we could find more upside with a pick 9/11.
Wesley is more advanced than Minnot. He showed really Nice things this year with Notre Dame.
Imo he could be really good
I Ok with using our second or third pick but I am trying to stay away from players that are undersized at positions like Keldon at PF with our first pick.
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