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very well said ...
thank you for some common sense.
very well said ...
Looking at the Lakers remaining schedule, they very well could go 4-0. They'll face a GSW team without Steph, a Phoenix team who's resting all of their guys, and OKC who should be a gimme. The only challenge will be Denver. So the Spurs work isn't done yet for the play-in.
Tanking to move up a spot or two would have been a dumb strategy. Not really instilling a winning at ude with that approach. Battling the Lakers for the last play-in spot is actually a good learning experience for these guys.
I think Phoenix will at least try to win their game. There is some bad blood between the teams, including when LeBron said their record was only so good because they have been healthy (even though Phoenix has had plenty of injuries of their own).
We'll find out tonight if Phoenix wants to take it seriously, but I think it is going to take one more Spurs win and one more Lakers loss for them to be closed out and, while likely, that is not guaranteed.
The magic number is 2. They have to go 3-1 and we have to go 0-4 for LA to edge us out.
Crazy as it sounds, the Lakers are trying to win, they just can't.
The Lakers usually lead most of the game but just can't hold on, as the LA Times put it, like they're running "a 400 meter sprint with 300 meters' worth of stamina."
I think they would like to tie the Spurs so they could say they lost out on the playoffs (their word) due to a tiebreaker.
That could play into the Spurs' ideal scenario -- a tie with the Lakers.
LeBron is out tonight.
Yeah I think LeBron is going for the "injuries derailed us" mythology. They just sucked is all.
Just to be clear, I never advocated for tanking. I hoped the Spurs would get the best draft pick possible, but it's not like I wanted Pop to tell the guys to lose. My point was simply that people were making too much of the play-in, and I just don't think the development of the younger players is somehow going to be critically changed by whether or not this team makes the play-in.
Spurs and Lakers winning percentages according to 538's RAPTOR model:
Spurs at Denver - 17%
Spurs at Minny - 20%
Warriors at Spurs - 51%
Spurs @ Dallas - 17%
Assuming these are correct, obviously best chance is a fully healthy (sans McBuckets) lineup vs Warriors. That being said, Spurs are about a coinflip to win one of the other 3 games. 1-3 end to this season seems the most likely outcome. Spurs will go 0-4 27% of the time.
Lakers @ Suns - 15%
Lakers @ Warriors 26%
OKC @ Lakers - 91%
Lakers @ Den 17%
Almost a sure win against OKC, but Lakers HAVE to go 3-1 and hope the Spurs don't win anything in order to pass the Spurs.
According to these odds, the Lakers have a 0.6% chance go go undefeated on the final 4. Less than 1%. Assuming they win the OKC game, the odds are basically the exact same for them going 3-1, 0.066%
These numbers will change dramatically if the Lakers or the Spurs win one of the unlikely games, but as it stands right now Spurs are virtually in.
Who is out / resting for the Suns?
Unlikely for sure, but I don't completely think this group is ever out of the water until they're, well, out of the water.
When the magic number is zero I'll celebrate.
I’m not saying it’s outside of probability for us to go 0-4, but I don’t see any possibility of LA going 3-1.Unlikely for sure, but I don't completely think this group is ever out of the water until they're, well, out of the water.
When the magic number is zero I'll celebrate.
Looks like Phoenix is playing everyone against the Lakers.
Prolly limited minutes for the top dogs.
Unlikely, Paul and Booker still playing 30+ minutes a night. Most likely the last 2 games of the season they will limit minutes or sit out starters.
I don't like the idea of purposefully tanking, especially when the youngest players (the ones you expect to play the most in a tanking situation) are actually playing pretty well. But this is the time to do it. Only 5 games (last game plus the next 4) won't damage the team's psyche.
And if you don't tank now, you definitely do it once the play-in berth is clinched. There are zero reasons to win games after that.
Interesting. Hopefully that's good for the Spurs.
It definitely is. If the Spurs clinch a play-in berth tonight (Spurs win and Lakers lose), the Spurs can tank the last 3 games and get into the play-in while also not losing too much ground in the pick order.
LA staying in it so far
Next on the agenda: getting #9 from New Orleans.
What's the play-in format?
7 plays 8, winner gets the 7 seed.
9 plays 10, loser is out.
7/8 loser plays 9/10 winner, winner gets 8 seed and loser is out.
Higher seed is the home team in every game.
Isiah Thomas just called Murray "Dounte".
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