2022 Draft Pick Watch

[ZeusWillJudge]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks."

Now that's just funny. If tanking, it's possible to counter 3 G-Leaguers with 1 Drew Eubanks.

[Ariel]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.)

Yeah, they've taken the term "tanking" to new heights... or lows in this case. It's so shameless the league should do something about it.

Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...

He's walking such a thin line that it's indeed hard to tell whether he's unrelenting stubborn in his desire to win, or a master in deception subtly tanking Probably both. If the Spurs end up in the 9th place and losing the play in, he would have pushed his team to it's potential thus avoiding damaging "the culture" and the value of his assets, while minimizing the costs of doing so (because getting a lower than 9 pick with the current state of affairs would have required very telling measures). Some of the latest moves (resting players today, the closing lineup vs Minnesota the final seconds, etc.) point towards the latter. Of course one game going right (wrong?) and it all goes to , since you make the playoffs and drop 6 spots and all talk is moot.

[exstatic]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.) Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...

The plan was always to flip Thad for assets, and if he gets injured, we get zilch.

[Mr. Body]

Wasn't it established Thad Young had a games played bonus that they weren't trying to hit? It would have been harder to trade him if he was more expensive.

[Ariel]

Picks watch after tonight's games:

In short:
* The Spurs' own pick is almost certainly coming at 9 (pre-lottery)
* Toronto's will be at 20-22 with a likely triple tie with Denver and Utah
* Boston's will be at 23-26 with 23 being the most likely scenario and 24 the next.
Now all we have to do is NOT make the playoffs, and hopefully get lucky in the lottery

[Mr. Body]

Dallas needs the game tomorrow night in case the Warriors beat New Orleans, I believe.

[rascal]

Spurs need to lose their next game and get lucky in the lottery and if things work out just right can get Ivey.

[Seventyniner]

Dallas needs the game tomorrow night in case the Warriors beat New Orleans, I believe.

The games happen at the same time so Dallas won't be able to know the result of the other game in advance.

[Mr. Body]

For all their shameless losing, I believe Portland only gained two spots in the last couple weeks. For striving for the play-in, the Spurs only slipped two spots in the same time.

[spurs1990]

Portland will get a cross between Sam Bowie and Brandon Roy as appreciation for so unabashedly punting on winning halfway through a season

[ZeusWillJudge]

For all their shameless losing, I believe Portland only gained two spots in the last couple weeks. For striving for the play-in, the Spurs only slipped two spots in the same time.

I trust you on Portland moving up "just" two spots. But those two spots are the difference between a 37% chance to move up, and a 26% chance to move up. I know a lot of people still insist that's not a big deal... but it's a big deal. Not only that, but they now have only a 4% chance of drafting worse than 8th. Two spots lower, and they would have had a 39% chance of picking worse than 8th. That's also a big deal if someone you really want gets picked 8th.

This was a big loss for the Spurs tonight. I wish they had stayed up at 7, but I'm over that. The way some of the other teams tanked, the Spurs would have had to lose 5 more games, at least, to finish as low as 7th lottery seed. But I still hope they lock up solo 9th tomorrow night, instead of in a tie.

But I would really like to see them in solo 9th after tomorrow night.

I know I called for the Spurs to play young roster players to not win those three last minute games. But when I first talked about the Spurs tanking, I said maybe 40-42. Before the play-in, that would almost always put you out of the playoffs and into the lottery. I think the play-in has made things worse instead of better.

The tanking has gotten so out of hand, I think the league is going to have to put some additional measures in place. Maybe if a team calls up g-league players in the last 10 games, force them to pay half a year's min contract and/or slap some cap hold on the team for those guys the next year, at least until they fill their roster. There needs to at least be some downside, even if it's just financial.

[FutureMan]

Portland really played their cards right IMO. They freed up cap space and put themselves in a position to get a top 4 pick.

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

In the same thought the Pelicans look good too with the Lakers pick and if Williamson comes back they could be looking at a starting 5 of Ivey, McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, & Valanciunes plus a bench of Nance Jr and Graham.

Spurs may not have to tank next year. They’ll just be one of the worst teams on their own if the ping pong balls fall this way.

[Sugus]

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

Yeah, crazy delusional... Lavine? What?

[MannyIsGod]

Portland really played their cards right IMO. They freed up cap space and put themselves in a position to get a top 4 pick.

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

In the same thought the Pelicans look good too with the Lakers pick and if Williamson comes back they could be looking at a starting 5 of Ivey, McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, & Valanciunes plus a bench of Nance Jr and Graham.

Spurs may not have to tank next year. They’ll just be one of the worst teams on their own if the ping pong balls fall this way.

The Spurs could run this exact same team back next year and they would improve their record from this year. With cap space and picks it's hard to envision them being worse than this year, quite frankly.

[PhantomDashCam]

May be an omen of things to come…

We’re picking 2 in this mock, based on moving up from 9 in a Tankathon sim.

[KingKev]

Wasn't it established Thad Young had a games played bonus that they weren't trying to hit? It would have been harder to trade him if he was more expensive.

That bonus was like 150k. Hardly relevant.

[CGD]

Only thing left that’s relevant to our picks is whether BOS ends in the 4th or 3rd seed. PHI and BOS tied record wise right now, though, it looks like BOS owns the tie breaker giving them 3rd seed for now.

In their last games, BOS has MEM, while PHI has DET. Pulling for MEM/DET tonight.

[exstatic]

Portland really played their cards right IMO. They freed up cap space and put themselves in a position to get a top 4 pick.

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

In the same thought the Pelicans look good too with the Lakers pick and if Williamson comes back they could be looking at a starting 5 of Ivey, McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, & Valanciunes plus a bench of Nance Jr and Graham.

Spurs may not have to tank next year. They’ll just be one of the worst teams on their own if the ping pong balls fall this way.

They could also lose one of those picks if NO jumps into the top4, or even get pushed back if several teams behind them jump in.

The bottom line is, we don’t know what their situation is, or will be, but they’re The Guests, so they’ll probably find a way to it up.

[BatManu20]

Only thing left that’s relevant to our picks is whether BOS ends in the 4th or 3rd seed. PHI and BOS tied record wise right now, though, it looks like BOS owns the tie breaker giving them 3rd seed for now.

In their last games, BOS has MEM, while PHI has DET. Pulling for MEM/DET tonight.

Not true. We need Denver and Utah to both win their games tonight and hope that TOR somehow loses to the Knicks. That would push the Raptors pick from 22 back up to 20, which is a big deal. Denver hosts the lakers and Utah plays @ Portland.

[CGD]

Not true. We need Denver and Utah to both win their games tonight and hope that TOR somehow loses to the Knicks. That would push the Raptors pick from 22 back up to 20, which is a big deal. Denver hosts the lakers and Utah plays @ Portland.

Thanks right, forgot to combine the conferences of course. Go Knicks, lol

[exstatic]

Not true. We need Denver and Utah to both win their games tonight and hope that TOR somehow loses to the Knicks. That would push the Raptors pick from 22 back up to 20, which is a big deal. Denver hosts the lakers and Utah plays @ Portland.

That’s actually not far fetched. Denver and Utah both want to win, and Toronto doesn’t own the pick, and can’t move up or down, they’ll probably rest guys.

[Big Empty]

Wright is going to trade Johnson and our 10th & 22nd pick to move up & draft Jabari Smith

[duncan2150]

Milwaukee resting everybody for tonight's game.

[Ariel]

Picks update, assuming Wizards lose (down 14 with 4' to go)

[duncan2150]

Raptors sitting Siakam and FVV tonight but bucks lose.

Taylor Jenkins said he's expecting to start De'Anthony Melton, Ziaire Williams, John Konchar, Kyle Anderson and Xavier Tillman for Sunday's regular-season finale vs. Boston.

So Boston with the win, at least a tie with the bucks. We'll see what Philly will do without Harden and Embiid vs Detroit less a lot of players too.