So Let's Talk Whole Offseason

[Ariel]

Who will be tanking next year for Victor?

OKC & Houston for sure. Maybe Orlando or Indiana. I don't think Detroit plans to tank. Blazers and Knicks might blow it all up if this season goes awry.

And the Lakers might still suck, so it'd be fun to see them land the top pick and have NO exercise the right to swap (it's unprotected as far as I read).

[BatManu20]

Spurs have a better chance of dropping from 9 to 10 or 11 than they do moving up into the top-4, so I’m letting that dream scenario go. If we make the playoffs (hopefully not), then we drop out of the lottery entirely, which is worst case scenario of course.

Trading up into the top-4 of the draft ain’t happening. Costs way too much and I don’t think Spurs are willing to part with Keldon or Vassell anyways. The 3 big men at the top of the draft are a pipe dream. Only way I see us trading up is if we make the playoffs. Then I could see us trading 15 + 20 or 21 to move up 3 or 4 spots to get our guy. Again, this is worst case scenario and would really suck. Let’s just hope we don’t make the playoffs and save ourselves the trouble.


Either way, Tari Eason or Jeremy Sochan will likely be our first pick if they’re available. We need a 4 badly and I’m sure they will be our targets. Then BPA with the TOR pick. I really hope we trade the Boston pick for a future FRP. Or even the TOR one if it’s for a minimally-protected FRP. We don’t need 3 Rookies. Jokic is a potential target for a Draft-and-stash, though I’m not as high on him as some are here.

Zach LaVine is gonna get paid this off-season, probably by Chicago. They can’t afford to let him walk, so they’ll prob Max him or something near it. Either way, if he does leave, it won’t be for San Antonio.

Sign Lonnie to a team-friendly deal. If he gets a bigger offer elsewhere, wish him the best and move on. I personally think he returns though.

Please stay away from Fat head. We don’t need to revisit that again. And he doesn’t fit with our new uptempo brand of basketball anyways. Bring back LMA on a cheap deal (lol) if he’s interested or sign another cheap PF rental for a year like PJ Tucker, Paul Milsap, Jeff Green, etc. Then call if an off-season.

[Ariel]

Spurs have a better chance of dropping from 9 to 10 or 11 than they do moving up into the top-4, so I’m letting that dream scenario go.

If they go into the lottery at 9, the Spurs have a 20.2% chance at a top 4 pick. It's a better than 1 in 5 chance. That may make it unlikely, but not a dream by any means.

[BatManu20]

If they go into the lottery at 9, the Spurs have a 20.2% chance at a top 4 pick. It's a better than 1 in 5 chance. That may make it unlikely, but not a dream by any means.

Yea not impossible but don’t hold your breath. Much more likely to pick 9-15.

[mo7888]

I don't like looking at things in a vacuum. Instead of just looking at who you want in the Top 4, or with the Spurs' own 9th pick, try and look at the whole offseason. The Spurs have 3 FRP, and loads of cap space to go after a top FA, or facilitate deals. But if they go small-ish in the draft, they would almost have to be thinking about using that cap space for a bigger PF or a more dynamic C. How would you coordinate all that? I've got a few pretty specific questions to start:

I assume most people agree that if the Spurs hit the lottery, they would pick one of the 3 PF's at the top? But what if the Spurs got the 4th pick from the lottery, and Banchero, Holmgren, and Smith are gone? Would you take the 6'4" Ivey, or the 6'8" Keegan Murray?

What if they don't hit the lottery? I don't think they could trade up enough to get one of the Big 3 without including a player. I assume DJ and Keldon are off the table. So would you trade Vassell and the 9th pick to get up to one of those guys? Would you trade Vassell and the 9th, plus Toronto's 21 pick to get up to one of those 3 PF's at the top?

Okay, so let's just assume the Spurs stick with their own 9th pick. Another wing, if that's BPA? Or do they swing for a more dynamic big man? The mocks have been calling for the Spurs to draft Duren for months. Would you take Duren, the C, or Tari Eason the PF, or do you really love Sochan at the 9th pick?

Finally, would you try to go after a free agent big man with the cap space? I don't see anyone outside of DeAndre Ayton, and he's restricted, plus that still leaves the 4 position small. Ayton did decide to test free agency, rather than taking an extension from Phoenix. Would you take a throw at him, knowing that it would take something approaching a max deal - even if you used a player or future pick to sweeten a sign and trade?

Excellent thread..

Take Ivey over Keegan..

I would trade 9 + 21 + (any player except DJ) for a top 3 pick in this draft. More controversial, I'd trade DJ by himself for a top 3 pick in this draft.

If I stick at 9 I'd take the BPA. Of the 3 players you mentioned I'd have Duren first then Eason...I'm not a fan of Sochan.

I don't see any FA big men on the market that really move the needle. Maybe Jalen Smith if he came cheap but, I would probably get outbid because I wouldn't pay much. That leaves two other options- 1) packaging players for a trade that brings in a difference maker knowing I'd just have to be opportunistic if it happens to come up or 2) use cap space and a contract (McDermott? ) to bring in a bad contract along with assets.

I also don't see us drafting 4 players. As exstatic likes to point out, kicking one pick down the road could be a good route here. I'd say kicking two down the road makes sense IF a team will give us a future 1st for our laker pick.

[Mr. Body]

1. Draft two good prospects who will be on the roster next year. With the lottery pick, there will be at least a couple good PF prospects available (Eason, Sochan). Try to move up with the Toronto/Boston picks or use one, trade off the other, same with the Lakers SRP. With the T/B pick, keep going for size, probably a center. I wouldn't be opposed to looking for a bargain with the later two picks (Boston, LA), someone like Trayce Jackson-Davis. There's a problem with too many players, though, and I'm not sure the team wants to have three rookies especially with Primo and Wieskamp still needing development.

2. Don't splurge on free agents. The team is trying to stay lean and flexible with its money. Buying a guy like Ayton or trying to get John Collins doesn't make much sense. In the first case, you already get that sort of production for much cheaper in Poeltl. In the second, well, Collins is too expensive, his fit is completely unclear, and this franchise just doesn't gamble lke that. You fail, it kills everything.

3. Really think about the cases of McDermott, Walker, and Richardson. McDermott should probably be moved, especially if Richardson stays. And I want to keep Richardson. Walker is a big question mark, but I would sign him to a reasonable contract. He's improving and a reasonable contract can be moved if he no longer fits. My guess is McDermott is gone, Langford is gone. KBD is a question mark but he's a good dude and neutral on the floor. Keep him if there's room.

4. Use the cap space to buy draft assets. They did pretty well last summer absorbing bad-ish contracts for some draft capital. They should keep it rolling both by moving any draft picks they don't want this year and helping teams pare down bad contracts and/or facilitate larger trades.

Overall: This team is pretty compe ive. We're seeing players push into their next levels. The roster is much more balanced than it was at the beginning of the year. It's much leaner, meaning there is less dead weight. The biggest team needs are 1) size and capability at PF, and 2) ability to close out games. The draft won't fix the PF issue straightaway, but it might help. Otherwise it'll be PF by committee with Landale hopefully getting comfortable there in certain sets. The ability to close out games depends on growth of what's already there.

[Uriel]

Just draft Banchero and call it an offseason.

[exstatic]

Yea not impossible but don’t hold your breath. Much more likely to pick 9-15.

We literally cannot pick 14th. Five teams cannot jump over us into only four spots. Picking 13th is listed as >0.0, meaning a tiny fraction of a percent. Picking 12th is 1/10th of a percent. For someone who can't see us jumping into the top four with 20% odds, you're sure entertaining all of the the fraction percentage doomsday scenarios. Here's the 411:

9th 50.7%
10th 25.9%
somewhere in the top 4 20.2%
11th 3%
12,13 0.2%

Houston and Orlando's highest odds are pick #5. Detroit and OKC's highest odds are for pick #6.

[KingKev]

It almost feels like he is out of the league now. I almost feel like he is done and will not be any sort of factor going forward.

Wishful thinking. He’ll be a top 10 player next year.

[bluebellmaniac]

We literally cannot pick 14th. Five teams cannot jump over us into only four spots. Picking 13th is listed as >0.0, meaning a tiny fraction of a percent. Picking 12th is 1/10th of a percent. For someone who can't see us jumping into the top four with 20% odds, you're sure entertaining all of the the fraction percentage doomsday scenarios. Here's the 411:

9th 50.7%
10th 25.9%
somewhere in the top 4 20.2%
11th 3%
12,13 0.2%

Houston and Orlando's highest odds are pick #5. Detroit and OKC's highest odds are for pick #6.

+1

[ZeusWillJudge]

Spurs have a better chance of dropping from 9 to 10 or 11 than they do moving up into the top-4, so I’m letting that dream scenario go. If we make the playoffs (hopefully not), then we drop out of the lottery entirely, which is worst case scenario of course.

So the only way the Spurs move down in the draft is if one of the teams from 10-14 moves up to the Top 4 with a lottery pick. If anyone from 5-8 moves up, the Spurs are unaffected. The only way the Spurs could get moved back two slots to 11 would be if two teams from 10-14 got Top 4 picks through the lottery.

My question about trading up to the Top 4 was mostly to see how many people think Vassell is off the table for other trades. Mo7888 actually said that he would put Murray up for grabs to get one of those PF's at the top. I don't think even that could really happen, but it does say that nobody on this team is off the table. But if it was going to happen, a young guy who puts up triple-doubles and has been on an All Star team (plus picks) would be needed. Vassell wouldn't get it done.

It looks like most people here don't beleive in Keegan Murray. I think the Spurs actually might be able to put together a deal to get from 9 to 5 and take him. I think he would be a good addition to this team, but I don't think he's a guy you build a team around, so trading a player to get him would probably be self-defeating. But I still think he's going to be a good use of the #5 pick for whoever lands there.

I agree that the Spurs will probably wind up renting out cap space for future pick(s). The problem with that is that teams who do that usually wind up with lottery-protected picks that wind up somewhere around where the Raptor/Celtic picks are. Those are still first round picks, but we have two of those this season, and the chance of getting a franchise player with one of them is less than the chance of getting the lucky ping pong ball.

Now some of you are seeing why I've been so twisted about the Spurs not playing young guys and dropping just 3-4 more games. It wasn't just about a possible Top-4 pick. It's that there are three top tier, potentially-franchise players that would perfectly complement this roster, without counterfeiting what they already have. The Spurs aren't likely to get this close to that kind of opportunity again.

[Ariel]

I would take Keegan Murray at 9 (don't think he'll be there though), but I wouldn't give up significant assets to trade up for him as I don't see him as a franchise player. Would rather take Eason or Sohan at 9 than that. I might do it for Banchero or Ivey though.

[stnick2261]

It looks like most people here don't beleive in Keegan Murray. I think the Spurs actually might be able to put together a deal to get from 9 to 5 and take him. I think he would be a good addition to this team, but I don't think he's a guy you build a team around, so trading a player to get him would probably be self-defeating. But I still think he's going to be a good use of the #5 pick for whoever lands there.

I'm not a draft expert... I would LOVE Keegan Murray. I just don't know if the difference between Murray and Tari Eason justifies what you would have to give up to draft that much higher.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Bottom line, my focus would be on landing a stretch 4 with at least 6'8" height at the top of the draft. Pinning down that single need would give the Spurs tremendous flexibility with their cap space and remaining picks.

If the Spurs stand pat and pick 9th? Looking at who is likely to be on the board, I would have to take Eason. He's got serious potential to make an impact on both ends that could turn some close L's into W's. I don't want to see the Spurs pick anyone who isn't at least somewhat of a 3P threat, so Duren wouldn't make my list unless they also got a stretch 4. Dyson Daniels has a lot of plusses, but he's 6'6" and a 25% 3P shooter. And I just think Sochan is more of a placeholder than a possible standout.

There are a couple of guys that I might consider trading both the Rap's and Celt's picks to get to in the late teens - Malaki Branham and EJ Liddell. The Spurs aren't going to want to keep 3 rookies anyway, and those guys would be solid additions to the bench.


No way to move two for one with the Rap's and Celt's picks? I would make sure to get one of Jabari Walker, or Trevion Williams (check out Williams' advanced stats before booing), or Walker Kessler (mostly for interior defense and to have a big body when needed). All three of those are likely to be available with the Celtic's pick.

To me, McBuckets is a tall Bryn Forbes - positionless, designated 3P shooter. So getting a legit backup 4 seems like a good thing:


I know I go on about Jabari Walker a lot, and pretty much nobody here picks up on it. He's a solid 6'9" and strong. He lost his 3P stroke in the first half of the season, but he got it together in the second half. For the last month and a half, he shot right at 50% from the arc. He's a legit 3P threat, and he's strong on the boards. I'm not saying he should be in the lottery, but he's going to be one of the bargains of this draft, and he fits the Spurs' needs.


And Patrick Baldwin jr. just got caught up in a bad situation. He had a chance to go to Duke and play for Coach K. He would have had a much better season, I'm convinced of it. If his extra firepower had given Duke that few extra points to put Duke over the top for a le? People would be talking about him as a lottery pick for sure. He's 6'9", some claim 6'10", and he's said that he wants to play the 4.

[exstatic]

So the only way the Spurs move down in the draft is if one of the teams from 10-14 moves up to the Top 4 with a lottery pick. If anyone from 5-8 moves up, the Spurs are unaffected. The only way the Spurs could get moved back two slots to 11 would be if two teams from 10-14 got Top 4 picks through the lottery.

My question about trading up to the Top 4 was mostly to see how many people think Vassell is off the table for other trades. Mo7888 actually said that he would put Murray up for grabs to get one of those PF's at the top. I don't think even that could really happen, but it does say that nobody on this team is off the table. But if it was going to happen, a young guy who puts up triple-doubles and has been on an All Star team (plus picks) would be needed. Vassell wouldn't get it done.

It looks like most people here don't beleive in Keegan Murray. I think the Spurs actually might be able to put together a deal to get from 9 to 5 and take him. I think he would be a good addition to this team, but I don't think he's a guy you build a team around, so trading a player to get him would probably be self-defeating. But I still think he's going to be a good use of the #5 pick for whoever lands there.

I agree that the Spurs will probably wind up renting out cap space for future pick(s). The problem with that is that teams who do that usually wind up with lottery-protected picks that wind up somewhere around where the Raptor/Celtic picks are. Those are still first round picks, but we have two of those this season, and the chance of getting a franchise player with one of them is less than the chance of getting the lucky ping pong ball.

Now some of you are seeing why I've been so twisted about the Spurs not playing young guys and dropping just 3-4 more games. It wasn't just about a possible Top-4 pick. It's that there are three top tier, potentially-franchise players that would perfectly complement this roster, without counterfeiting what they already have. The Spurs aren't likely to get this close to that kind of opportunity again.

2028 could happen.

[JPB]

I would take Keegan Murray at 9 (don't think he'll be there though), but I wouldn't give up significant assets to trade up for him as I don't see him as a franchise player. Would rather take Eason or Sohan at 9 than that. I might do it for Banchero or Ivey though.

This. You know what you have, you're never exactly sure what you get with rookies. Sacrifying quality players and picks for a star is one thing, for a college player that's another, unless you'd get a Lebron but no none would deal to miss out on a Lebron.

[Silverheart80]

I don't like looking at things in a vacuum. Instead of just looking at who you want in the Top 4, or with the Spurs' own 9th pick, try and look at the whole offseason. The Spurs have 3 FRP, and loads of cap space to go after a top FA, or facilitate deals. But if they go small-ish in the draft, they would almost have to be thinking about using that cap space for a bigger PF or a more dynamic C. How would you coordinate all that? I've got a few pretty specific questions to start:

I assume most people agree that if the Spurs hit the lottery, they would pick one of the 3 PF's at the top? But what if the Spurs got the 4th pick from the lottery, and Banchero, Holmgren, and Smith are gone? Would you take the 6'4" Ivey, or the 6'8" Keegan Murray?

What if they don't hit the lottery? I don't think they could trade up enough to get one of the Big 3 without including a player. I assume DJ and Keldon are off the table. So would you trade Vassell and the 9th pick to get up to one of those guys? Would you trade Vassell and the 9th, plus Toronto's 21 pick to get up to one of those 3 PF's at the top?

Okay, so let's just assume the Spurs stick with their own 9th pick. Another wing, if that's BPA? Or do they swing for a more dynamic big man? The mocks have been calling for the Spurs to draft Duren for months. Would you take Duren, the C, or Tari Eason the PF, or do you really love Sochan at the 9th pick?

Finally, would you try to go after a free agent big man with the cap space? I don't see anyone outside of DeAndre Ayton, and he's restricted, plus that still leaves the 4 position small. Ayton did decide to test free agency, rather than taking an extension from Phoenix. Would you take a throw at him, knowing that it would take something approaching a max deal - even if you used a player or future pick to sweeten a sign and trade?

1) Jaden Ivey over Keegan Murray. Murray fills a vacancy in the short term. Ivey will be a more potent pro.

2) No trades to move up. This year's top PFs don't justify the investment.

3) If the Spurs hold on to the 9th -- it's Sochan. His defensive switchability on all five positions is too good to pass up. At age 18, his timeline matches the Josh Primo timeline. (Remember this one from Brian Wright last summer? "Josh's development timeline will be Josh's development timeline. There's no pressure from us." More on that later.) Duren is younger, but again Sochan's switchability and IQ fits best.

4) No, I wouldn't go for a free agent big man with this summer's cap space. If I look at the moves the Spurs have made in the last year -- drafting another 6'5" guard in spite of redundancy, not fixing the problem at PF, seemingly not caring about where they slot in the lottery chase -- I would guess they have their eyes on 2023 rather than 2022.

Winning rings requires at least one, if not two players, that create relentless mismatches. Current Spurs roster has no one even close to that. Nice role players, but none of these current guys is going to turn into a dominant top-10-level mismatch on both ends, night after night. Not happening. I don't see Holmgren, Smith, or Banchero as being MVP-level game changers either. So no reason to trade up.

But I do think there's at least one in the 2023 draft and that's Victor Wembanyama. Spurs won't outright tank for a shot at him, but I think they stand pat this summer and 'kick the can' to next year's draft as much as possible. My guess is they move two picks out of this year's first round to hopefully acquire picks for next year's first round.

That comment from Wright last summer seemed odd at the time, but looking at what the Spurs have done -- I don't think they're focused on trying to win a championship with DJ, Keldon, and Devin as a 'Big Three'. I think they're biding their time 'til they have a shot at a generational player. I think Wembanyama has a real shot to be the next one and it doesn't hurt that he plays for the same French pro team that Tony Parker owns (although that means nothing come draft time….still cool though). Meanwhile, that would explain why the Spurs feel 'no pressure'. So they keep developing a beta lineup of role players. No need to rock that boat this summer. Hopefully sooner rather than later, they'll catch a generational big fish to match the much-younger timeline Wright seems to be eyeing.

[Dejounte]

Unless Murray suffers a major injury next season, I don’t see how the Spurs could be a worse team next year. Murray didn’t start off playing at a star-level this season, Keldon played much better at the end of the season, and Vassell looks like he’s figuring it out. Tre is slowly looking like he can run the backup point, Collins didn’t show up until the last quarter of this season, JRich being a great role player. So many indicators of a much improved team next year. Very small chance they’ll have a shot at a top 10 pick next year.

[Dverde]

Anyone in here like James Wiseman on the Spurs? Stock at an all time low, GSW might selling with his contract getting bigger next year.

[mo7888]

Anyone in here like James Wiseman on the Spurs? Stock at an all time low, GSW might selling with his contract getting bigger next year.

As with most things the question is, what's the price? How do you define them selling low?

[Mr. Body]

Anyone in here like James Wiseman on the Spurs? Stock at an all time low, GSW might selling with his contract getting bigger next year.

Injury prone and not ready to even play college ball. High salary due to where he was drafted, so expensive to extend him. No thanks.

[exstatic]

Injury prone and not ready to even play college ball. High salary due to where he was drafted, so expensive to extend him. No thanks.

He's had literally one injury, a meniscus tear. He put up 11.5/5.8 as a rookie in 21.4 minutes, essentially coming straight out of HS. I don't think they're going to trade him, but I'd be in line if they were.

[KingKev]

He'll be a regular season factor, but he can only play 75% of the games, and that doesn't work in the playoffs. When he doesn't get that rest, he's much less effective. He'll be 31 before next season starts.

Did you watch the playoff game he went down with his last injury? Get him to the playoffs healthy, in rhythm and he is a top 10 player of all time.

[KingKev]

Injury prone and not ready to even play college ball. High salary due to where he was drafted, so expensive to extend him. No thanks.

The GS Warriors are astute in EVERYTHING. If Wiseman on the block which he assuredly is not i’m staying the fk away.

[Ariel]

As with most things the question is, what's the price? How do you define them selling low?

Exactly. I actually like Wiseman and would be willing to gamble on him, if the price is right... but that's a HUGE if.
I personally think GS will hold on to him, they seemed content with his progress until his season was derailed by injuries.
7 footers with his athleticism don't grow on trees. He's also skilled. I just wonder if his injury history is an indication of something worse that's bound to happen time and again.