Official 2022 NBA Draft thread

[mo7888]

I don't recall seeing any mocks where he is going anywhere near that high. Not that they're infallible, because some are just awful, but there is something to be read there, and I would be shocked if he breaks into the top 20. He would seem like a perfect draft and stash kind of guy, ideal for the 20s pick.

https://nbl.com.au/news/projected-20...-with-breakers

"Dieng is one of France’s most promising young stars and is ranked at number 11 in ESPN’s 2022 NBA mock draft."

Obviously there's a wide range right now....there's one much higher than you suggest...BR has him at 20....so he's already risen past what you're thinking and things will change more after individual workouts (either up or down but with his skill set I'm betting on the up).

[Ariel]

It's not true that there is more chance the Spurs get a top four pick then another team below them jumping into the top four.

20% for the Spurs to land a top four pick and if you add all the odds of all the teams below the Spurs to get into the top 4 picks it comes out to 37.6%.

This is correct. As per Tankathon:
1-4: 20.2%
9: 50.7%
10: 25.9%
11: 3%
12: 0.1%
So basically it's a coin toss whether we pick at 9 or not, and if we don't, it's 40% we pick top 4 and 60% we pick 10 or lower
However, it should be noted that in 90% of the cases where we fall, it's only 1 spot (from 9 to 10), so it's not that significant, whereas when we climb, we climb big.
So all in all there's much more to win than there is to lose in the lottery.

[Ariel]

https://nbl.com.au/news/projected-20...-with-breakers

"Dieng is one of France’s most promising young stars and is ranked at number 11 in ESPN’s 2022 NBA mock draft."

Obviously there's a wide range right now....there's one much higher than you suggest...BR has him at 20....so he's already risen past what you're thinking and things will change more after individual workouts (either up or down but with his skill set I'm betting on the up).

That article is almost a year old (june 2021). Guys projected at top 5 last year are second rounders by now. That makes it irrelevant.

[TD 21]

None of the players I'm interested in I would qualify as scrawny. They're thin, because they're very long and young, and at that age most young guys who grow rapidly need to gain muscle mass. But they've got the frame to put on the weight, I'm not the slightest bit concerned with Daniels or Sochan in that regard, like I'm with Chet for instance (who I think will always be pushed around and prone to be injured).
The shooting I will concede, but again, I think it's easier to improve your shooting that to make a selfish guy pass, a stupid guy think, or an untalented player gain skills. So given that every guy in that range is lacking something (that's why they're there after all), I'd rather target the guys that have those traits you can't teach and bet on them adding the shooting that's missing. If they become even adequate, they're going to be really good pros.

Sochan is the exception. The rest, I'm not concerned insofar as whether it'll prevent them from lasting in the league, but for a team that seems to be attempting to prioritize defense, they need some stout/switchable bodies and most of these types are more in the mold of Murray, Poeltl, Vassell.

They also need shooting and most players who can't shoot to begin with don't become good/versatile shooters. They keep picking projected average or worse ones and they've had a team severely lacking in it for years.

[mo7888]

That article is almost a year old (june 2021). Guys projected at top 5 last year are second rounders by now. That makes it irrelevant.

I believe it was updated (hence the 2022 mock draft reference that would have been in the original 2022 article)...either way the Bleacher report has him higher than you suggest..and espn's best available has him at #18 overall...all of those ate higher than they were a month ago...the kids rising and he won't be there at 20...

[Ariel]

I believe it was updated (hence the 2022 mock draft reference that would have been in the original 2022 article)...

I think they mean the projections for the 2022 draft... which could have been made at any time, not necessarily now. And since the date reads june 2021 and it doesn't reflect any current views, that's what would seem reasonable to interpret.

[mo7888]

I think they mean the projections for the 2022 draft... which could have been made at any time, not necessarily now. And since the date reads june 2021 and it doesn't reflect any current views, that's what would seem reasonable to interpret.

Ok, I'll cede that point since you make a reasonable argument there. It doesn't change the fact though that the Bleacher report has him higher than you suggest..and espn's best available has him at #18 overall...and all of those ate higher than they were a month ago...the kids rising and he won't be there at 20... he's trending in the right direction...

[Ariel]

Ok, I'll cede that point since you make a reasonable argument there. It doesn't change the fact though that the Bleacher report has him higher than you suggest..and espn's best available has him at #18 overall...and all of those ate higher than they were a month ago...the kids rising and he won't be there at 20... he's trending in the right direction...

That may be the case. But even so, I would argue it would make much more sense to trade up a few spots from the Toronto pick (20/21), than to pick 10 spots ahead all the way to 9. I'm not that impressed with what I've seen that I'd be that desperate to snatch him that high.

[mo7888]

That may be the case. But even so, I would argue it would make much more sense to trade up a few spots from the Toronto pick (20/21), than to pick 10 spots ahead all the way to 9. I'm not that impressed with what I've seen that I'd be that desperate to snatch him that high.

I'm not suggesting we select him at 9 right now (workouts and real measurables could change that)...

My top 9 are:

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Keegan Murray
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Benedict Mathurin
8. AJ Griffin
9. Jalen Duren

I'd have all those (and a few more higher than Dieng right now)...all of that is subject to change as we get more information...I think Dieng has a real chance to improve his stock and could go top 10....that could be to us if he impresses in his workout/interview or to someone else that pushes one of my preferred guys a little lower and gives us more options.

[rascal]

This is correct. As per Tankathon:
1-4: 20.2%
9: 50.7%
10: 25.9%
11: 3%
12: 0.1%
So basically it's a coin toss whether we pick at 9 or not, and if we don't, it's 40% we pick top 4 and 60% we pick 10 or lower
However, it should be noted that in 90% of the cases where we fall, it's only 1 spot (from 9 to 10), so it's not that significant, whereas when we climb, we climb big.
So all in all there's much more to win than there is to lose in the lottery.

Nice breakdown but I think your numbers are off.

Spurs pick

1-4 is 20.3%
10 will be the % of all the teams below them added up to get into the top 4 and that's 37.6 % chance that one will get into the top 4
11 and 12 and 13 will be small %s and will take two teams below the spurs to fall into the top 4 or three teams to fall into the top 4 for 12 or four teams jump them for the spurs to land 13
so approximately add 37.6% + 20.3% = 57.9% then 100% - 57.9% = 42.1 %(will be a little lower in the cases that two or three or four teams jump the spurs and fall into the top 4) the Spurs pick 9th.

[duncan2150]

Daniels is apparently up to 6'8'' in shoes, 200 pounds with a reported 7'0'' wingspan and he hit 45% of his 3's in his last 9 G-League Ignite games (obviously small sample size though). He should eventually be able to guard 1-4.

Barring an unexpected fall from someone in the projected top 8, I suspect there's a strong chance it's either Dieng or Daniels. The former appears higher ceiling/lower floor, so I'd lean slightly towards him for now.

This guy is growing up every year lol

i just saw that he was 6'4 in 2020 with a 6'7 wingspan, actually he's like you said at 6'7 or 6'8 with shoes, terrific defender and good feel for the game, he will be on spurs radar for sure.

[Ariel]

Nice breakdown but I think your numbers are off.

1-4 is 20.3%
10 will be the % of all the teams below them added up to get into the top 4 and that's 37.6 % chance that one will get into the top 4
11 and 12 and 13 will be small %s and will take two teams below the spurs to fall into the top 4 or three teams to fall into the top 4 for 12 or four teams jump them for the spurs to land 13
so approximately add 37.6% + 20.3% = 57.9% then 100% - 57.9% = 42.1 %(will be a little lower in the cases that two or three or four teams jump the spurs and fall into the top 4) the Spurs pick 9th.

No. There are three mutually exclusive scenarios (events), which make the full range of possibilities (ergo they add up to 100%):
1) E1: You go up. That's in turn comprised of 4 subscenarios, all of which mutually exclusive and add up to the full 1-4 range. So by adding each probability you get 20.2%
2) E2: You stay at 9. That comes directly from the chart, and it's at 50.7%
3) E3: You drop. Since the three scenarios amount to 100% and cannot occur simultaneously, P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) = 1 => P(E3) = 1 - P(E1) - P(E2) = 1 - 0.202 - 0.507 = 0.291 = 29.1%
Mathematically, you have to be careful when adding probabilities, because the probability of two events happening is the sum of the probabilities of each event happening only if those events are mutually exclusive. In your case, all teams below us going up are not (no. 10 and no. 11 could both rise), therefore you can't simply add them.

[rascal]

Where do you see the Spurs have 50.7% chance at staying at 9?

[Ariel]

Where do you see the Spurs have 50.7% chance at staying at 9?

https://tankathon.com/pick_odds

[exstatic]

Every clip I’ve seen of Jalen, be it college or the pros, appears to show him playing the 5. Even when he is paired with Isaiah Jackson situationally in Indy, it’s the fleeter of foot Jackson that slides onto the perimeter to guard opposition 4s.

I’m happy to be wrong on this but can you show some clips of him actively guarding the perimeter as a 4 for a sequence of game film? Or are we dealing with a Zach Collins hype train situation?

Could be any number of reasons. Maybe Smith protects the paint better. Maybe they didn’t want Jackson to move from his normal place in their defense, so that two people were learning new spots. Maybe they know they won’t be able to keep him, as the holder of that toxic contract.

[mo7888]

Could be any number of reasons. Maybe Smith protects the paint better. Maybe they didn’t want Jackson to move from his normal place in their defense, so that two people were learning new spots. Maybe they know they won’t be able to keep him, as the holder of that toxic contract.

Or maybe he doesn't move well enough to play the 4 or guard on the perimeter?

I'd still gamble on him if the contract isn't unreasonable though...even as a 5 he has some value..

[exstatic]

Or maybe he doesn't move well enough to play the 4 or guard on the perimeter?

I'd still gamble on him if the contract isn't unreasonable though...even as a 5 he has some value..

TaT listed him as a 4. BBref lists him as a 4, and they actually bake some analysis into it. He’s young, springy, light, and has a7’3” wingspan. I don’t think the concept of perimeter defense is foreign to him, but as a perimeter defender, he would have to know/learn the Indy rotations, which would be more difficult than just sticking him in the paint.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, Dieng is likely hitting top 10. At worst he gets scooped up by OKC or similar like Charlotte with the late lottery picks. Who care what mock drafts say right now. They're mostly heads who have no idea what's going on.

[duncan2150]

TaT listed him as a 4. BBref lists him as a 4, and they actually bake some analysis into it. He’s young, springy, light, and has a7’3” wingspan. I don’t think the concept of perimeter defense is foreign to him, but as a perimeter defender, he would have to know/learn the Indy rotations, which would be more difficult than just sticking him in the paint.

Smith can defend the perimeter but he's not the best at it. We talked a lot about him predraft in 2020, was one prospect spurstalk like. Imo he's a C but he can play some PF like Collins, tough the switching will be a little bit difficult with them.

[duncan2150]

Yeah, Dieng is likely hitting top 10. At worst he gets scooped up by OKC or similar like Charlotte with the late lottery picks. Who care what mock drafts say right now. They're mostly heads who have no idea what's going on.

+1000 on that, people will be surprise as the consensusin mock drafts is rarely what nba teams think. Barnes climbing last year for example while kuminga sliding ( he was a top 5 pick 90% of the year)...

That's why i don't buy Keegan Murray as a lock at 5 or 6. Time will tell.

[rascal]

+1000 on that, people will be surprise as the consensusin mock drafts is rarely what nba teams think. Barnes climbing last year for example while kuminga sliding ( he was a top 5 pick 90% of the year)...

That's why i don't buy Keegan Murray as a lock at 5 or 6. Time will tell.

There can be one or two surprise picks but usually the top rated guys will go high near where they should get drafted on the draft board.

[Ariel]

Well... whatever may be the case, I'm sure with their French connections the Spurs' would be better positioned that just about anybody else to know what this kid's game is worth.

[Mr. Body]

There can be one or two surprise picks but usually the top rated guys will go high near where they should get drafted on the draft board.

What draft board? Rated by who? What does this even mean?

[tonight...you]

Could be any number of reasons. Maybe Smith protects the paint better. Maybe they didn’t want Jackson to move from his normal place in their defense, so that two people were learning new spots. Maybe they know they won’t be able to keep him, as the holder of that toxic contract.

All true. Also maybe Jalen just can't play the 4 effectively.

[BatManu20]

Hottest name in the draft right now. He’s going top-15 for sure. Maybe even top-12.