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Ian Mahinmi likes this post.
He’s 18. He can be anything, at this point. I wouldn’t pick him as just a physical specimen as a 20 YO sop re, but yeah, I’d pick him top 10.
Ian Mahinmi likes this post.
The comp is something like Adebayo if we talk about actual nba so i think it's very important to have that kind of player. The real question imo is : Duren value with Poetl already there or Poetl value in general.
Mahinmi was never near what Duren is at the same age and i tell you that from France, i saw him playing in front of me.
I understand the debate about taking a C but i really think Duren is legit and have a good celling.
I didn't see Ian Mahinmi before the Spurs, but I remember the arguments about his physical tools, and I'm just wary whenever that's 90% of the arguments for picking a player.
I made a point of watching Duren's games during the NCAA tournament (watched as much as I could of the players that could be of interest to the Spurs) and came unimpressed with his game, for all the reasons mentioned. Sometimes a player surprises you and develops his game to where you didn't imagine, it's possible... but he'd have a long way to go from what I've seen to warrant the pick.
I think Poeltl’s going the way of White. There was a demand for him at the deadline, and I'm guessing most of those teams are still interested. Charlotte dropped like a rock after passing and signing ‘Trezz Harrell.
I think he does have glimpses of more, but, while 'low skill' centers might be least important, plain old useful centers must not grow on trees because the Spurs did not have 48 minutes of quality center play. Charlotte was desperate for a center.
He's raw. Even his supporters among draftniks with podcasts think he'll need time to develop, if he ever does.
People bring up Bam or post-injury Dwight Howard as a comparison, I'll go back to comparing him to Derrick Favors. There's not a lot of YouTube videos covering Favors in college, but the ones that do break down how raw he was, how he would only be a dunking threat to start his career, how he sometimes just didn't play hard or lost guys, he couldn't shoot ... I think Favors has had a decent career. He developed over time. Disappointing as a third pick, sure, reasonable. But as a 9th pick? Not bad.
You can also see Favors in college wasn't as built as Duren. You'll also have to see the ridiculous fashions of the 00s as Georgia Tech had those oversized crumping clown uniforms, it's hard to watch.
How much 'more' do I think I see or imagine? I don't know. But is getting a backup center at 9 who could become a starter really any different than getting a backup guard or forward at 9 who could eventually start? Is there really anyone at 9 who wouldn't begin as a bench player? Some of these guys would go straight to the g-league. Some of them would be third string. Maybe Keegan Murray would have the quickest path to starting but he's another guy who might measure out small, so maybe not.
It actually is different, and the bell curve is why. It’s MUCH harder to find a prospect with upside at 6’10” than at 6’5”, for the simple reason that the pool of prospects is smaller out at both ends of the curve. That’s why we keep drafting 6’5”/6’6” guys. That’s why we drafted Sammich.
To me, in my opinion, it also gets back to what type of player can get along with Pop and thrive in his style of play. If Pop is returning, I'm less interested in getting Duren because I don't think Pop works well with unskilled players. Maybe one dimensional players, but usually that's if they're already journeyman vets who've "gotten over themselves."
For me, avoiding unskilled players is a lesson of the Lonnie IV experiment. Nor does Pop like to work with players with questionable work ethic, i.e., Luka. So if his bbiq and feel for the game are sort of at a placental level at this point, he better be extremely hard working to make it with the Spurs. Having said all that, I'm not saying I'm in favor of this viewpoint, but I'm trying to objectively assess what type of players have succeeded and failed with the Spurs. I'd love for the Spurs to have a tough, defensive minded center who isn't all finesse. So, if the Spurs pick Duren I will hope that they saw enough to warrant the pick. I'm not against him. I'm just trying to state the challenges in drafting him.
Are you from France? If so, what's your opinion on another C prospect in Kamagate, who's also athletic and young (21), and could be had for much less (supposedly mid 20s).
If we need a young C, why don't we just try to sign J.Smith and use the 9th Pick to draft someone who could really play PF or someone who have a good handle to attack the rim.
Yeah. Wasting the #9 on the least important position in modern basketball when there are other options, not to mention Williams, Kessler, Koloko... available not too soon after, doesn't make sense to me.
I agree with this. Unless you're convinced that Duren is leaps and bounds above everyone else, it's much more efficient to draft an ok center with one of the latter picks (say Walker Kessler, Koloko or Kamagate) and sign Jalen Smith, and use the pick for something else.
Not so much over-hyping Scola as to showing how utterly poor Duncan's front court partners were from 2008-2011. An old washed Oberto, Matt Bonner, DeJuan Blair, Drew Gooden lol. If you use the old VORP (value over replacement player), Scola would have been a huge upgrade just because of how bad those guys were.
Maybe the Spurs thought Splitter was coming over in 2007 so they traded Scola. Even then Pop sat Splitter his entire first year until they were a game away from elimination.
But happy to leave the convo here cause it ing makes me angry thinking about it lol.
My guess is his measurements are similar to Favors, as you said. Hence "slightly", which meant good length/strength, but on the shorter side. I don't think it'll be much of an issue other than the obvious (Jokic, Embiid, maybe Valanciunas) but that goes for most.
True, but you could see immediately how driven Murray was. Not saying Duren necessarily isn't, just that it's been a knock.
Murray is the only recent pick who didn't seem like their type, but the opportunity was too good to pass up. They desperately needed a high ceiling prospect, especially guard, so to get a lottery caliber pick at 29, he'd have had to have really bombed the interview/background processes to overlook that.
I will be totally bummed if Duren is our pick. When you can’t even shoot a left-handed lay-up coming into the league the development mountain is just too high to climb to waste a lottery pick on.
He’s 18, and one of the, if not actually the youngest player in the draft. There’s a ton of room for development if he goes to the right situation. Think of all the things he CAN do as essentially a HS aged player.
Yes, i think Kamagate could be good to very good depends on his progression, he's showing some nice things. Imo the Spurs need another C, rim runner, shotblocker type and he's one of my target. He's at least imo a back up in the NBA actually.
Agreed on that tough i think Duren could develop very well, ceilling is high. I will be totally fine with Kessler, Williams, Koloko or Kamagate like i said higher.
I just don't think there's a high ceiling there. It's the least impactful position in the modern NBA unless you have a super-talent like Embiid or Jokic. If Duren projects to be a superb outside shooter, that's one thing, but there's only so much a center can do in this NBA.
Agree the C position is less impactful these days but don’t underestimate the impact of having a lob threat/vertical floor spacer. It’s a good relief valve for guys who can get into the paint like DeJounte to be able to lob it up next to the rim if the opposition C rotates to cut off the drive.
Jakob just doesn’t provide that although he has become pretty damn good at that short little shot put shot from about 5-10 feet.
In any case I’d be surprised if the Spurs took Duren or Williams with their first pick given Jakob is our second best/impactful player after Murray.
Can anyone share details why Duren's ceiling is high, other than being young and physically gifted? Is it playmaking? Shooting? The video clips I see are dunking and blocking shots.
Good comparisons for Duren are the following players.
Rob Williams
Clint Capela
Jarrett Allen
Mitc Robinson
Jaren Jackson
Dwight Powell
.............and every single one of these guys is very important to their team. The Cavs could not wait till Jarrett Allen got back into the lineup when he was out.
You’re only looking at one side of the ball. How many teams just kill us with lob after lob? What would it be like to have someone who can do what Poeltl does, WITH verticality?
Like you said being young and physically gifted is the main strenghts of Duren. The ceilling is on ( exactly what you said) the passing, who starts to be interesting and the shooting from 5-6 ft, he showed some flashes, not something unbelivable but that he can shoot the ball especially from the left and right elbow ( left side, beyond the paint and baseline).
here's the trad of the tweet. "We knew Jalen Duren for his powerful aerial finishes & his impressive circle protection at his age. But what I prefer this year are the pass & shoot flashes, which we saw this summer at EYBL. He has just turned 18, the potential is immense"
Last edited by duncan2150; 04-18-2022 at 09:11 AM.
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