San Antonio Spurs Big Board 1.0 for the 2022 NBA Draft

[TimDunkem]

They're going to pick a guard again, tbh.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I think the 2022 draft isn't very good. Not at the very top - no real tier 1 prospects, not in the lottery and probably not in the latter parts as well. Of course there will likely be some players surpassing expectations, but overall I don't feel good about the draft at all. I'll probably be way off on some, or most of these but here we go.

Tier 1
Chet Holmgren - still have him at 1, even though he doesn't project as a no. 1 offensive option. More of a 2nd/3rd banana. High ceiling though, because of his defense, feel and shooting. I think he can play a role similar to Jaren Jackson Jr
Paolo Banchero - not convinced with his shot and his defense especially but he's one of 3 players, who could become a 1st option. My comparison is NY Julius Randle
Jaden Ivey - another player who might be a 1st option but he has to improve in a lot of areas. What I don't like is that he's at his best being the primary ballhandler, but his passing, vision and ballhandling aren't great. If he plays off the ball his value drops. People like to compare him to Morant but I think he's closer to a Lavine, who took his time to get comfortable in the league
Jabari Smith - great shooting and better than you'd think at defense but he has a lot holes - can't get to the rim at all, can't create his own shot, etc. they're stated in all mocks. I think Jerami Grant with more upside is a good comparison
Shaedon Sharpe - the last one who could grow into a main banana, offensively at least. Super difficult to be evaluated by us armchair GMs, it'll depend on his workouts but he could be a Jalen Green/Anthony Edwards type. Not sure he could get to the rim as easily as these two though

Tier 2
Keegan Murray - he's skilled and good at a lot of things, not sure he'll be elite at anything. He overpowers players often and I'm not sure the way he scores receiving the ball on the block and creating for himself will work against NBA athletes. I could see him being a Marcus Morris if his shot translates, or similar to Obi Toppin. If he shatters expectations why not a Siakam even
Ben Mathurin - good scorer and shooter but doesn't project to be much of a ballhandler or a passer. Passable defense at best too. Maybe a Norm Powell
Johnny Davis - I think his shooting percentages are a bit lower due to being the only good player on a bad team, forced to create and shoot of the dribble a lot. Is it because of bad spacing or because he can't create enough separation? Probably both. I see some Caris Levert in his game, maybe he could grow to be a Khris Middleton? I think he has one of the highest upsides after tier 1

Tier 3
Jeremy Sochan - obvious positives but he hasn't shown a glimpse of hope for his shooting. Still, even if he grows to be an average shooter there's good value there because of his versatility and intangibles. Maybe he becomes what Chuma Okeke was going to be before his injury, or a better version of Joe Ingles. There's a lot of Bobo in his demeanor
AJ Griffin - he's super weird to me because I always have the expectation that he's a great athlete but he plays like a below average one, possibly because of his injuries or because of Duke's suspect spacing. Has a very wide frame when shooting but it goes in. Really not sure what to make of him... Gary Trent Jr..?
Jalen Duren - rim protection and rebounding will translate but can he be a switchable defender? Not sure. Will he ever be an OK shooter? Not sure. His passing and possibility to be able to guard on the perimeter would be his swing skills, other than that he's your average rim running athlete, a dime a dozen. Or he could be your Bam Adebayo.
Jaden Hardy - I like him more than most mocks and think his struggles in the gleague are understandable. Of course his flaws are clear as well but he has ballhandling, shooting and passing upside that most players in this draft lack. Not dissimilar to our Josh Primo
Dyson Daniels - he does many things well, except for shooting, a proper swiss army knife type of player. I don't see him as more than a glue guy but this is valuable as well. A taller Derrick White, if you will
Malaki Branham - there's so much to like about him and he has progressed so well as the season went on, game after game. By march he was a different player compared to his first games. Not great athleticism but he knows how to play
Patrick Baldwin Jr - his struggles have become notorious during the season but his shooting form is so awesome it's impossible that it won't translate. Biggest question mark is his motor. Looked disinterested a lot. If he can become a Cameron Johnson he'll be good value in the teens

Others I like :
Ousmane Dieng - was terrible at the beginning of the season but has progressed well, flashing a lot of skills but still with a ton of questions. What I don't like is that he doesn't have a bankable skill , everything is theoretical
Tari Eason - could be a plug and play kind of a rookie but I'm not convinced his defense will translate because he's not disciplined enough. His other skills aren't that enticing if he can't be a lockdown defender
Mark Williams - second best rim running center in the draft after Duren. Actually he could be better if Duren's upside proves disappointing. He's a what you see is what you get player, a lot like Poeltl
Bryce McGowans - inefficient but he looks the part of an NBA player. Looks a lot like DeJounte to me when he plays, not as a player comparison, just something about him reminds me of DJ. Better comparison is Jordan Poole
Kendall Brown - actually I don't like him too much, he's trended downwards as the season progressed and was unplayable in march madness, but he has shown enough flashes that if the Spurs actually draft him I'd be excited ( this is true for a few players )

Some players I don't like:
Ochai Agbaji - I might be very wrong about him and I definitely see him as immediately more impactful than most of the players above but there's something that seems off to me
EJ Liddell - similar to Agbaji
Blake Wesley - I see his theoretical upside and could compare him to McGowans who I like, but his shot doesn't look good to me
TyTy Washington - sure he can be the next Herro or Maxey. Or not. I tend to think not
Walker Kessler - worse Mark Williams, wouldn't hate him at the end of the 1st I guess. Really don't see him being even average as a switchable defender
Kennedy Chandler - I'm probably underestimating him because he's too small. He's feistier defender than you'd expect. Just don't see him as a fit on the Spurs
Jean Montero - similar to Chandler, but like him even less
Christian Braun - when a guy you like doesn't have an elite skill you call him a glue guy, when you don't like him you say he doesn't have a good NBA skill. I don't like Braun
Wendell Moore - similar to Braun
Marjon Beauchamp - great name, other than that...
Nikola Jovic - similar to Dieng in that all of his skills are theoretical. Dieng > Jovic imo, but I wouldn't hate it if he's a draft and stash with the Boston pick
Christian Koloko - the worst of the rim running bigs projected in the first round
Caleb Love - inefficient chucker, turnover machine, too small, just no

Players I like for draft and stash: Kamagate, Spagnolo and Procida - I expect some of these to rise up mock drafts

Pre-draft type of guys I'd like with Tor/Bos picks if they stay in the draft - John Butler, Max Christie, JD Davison, Josh Minott, Caleb Houstan, Peyton Watson

Players I like as 2nd round flyers - Jaylin Williams, Dalen Terry, Jake LaRavia, Justin Lewis

[Ariel]

Banchero is a pipe dream boys. We’ll likely be picking 9-11 and I still think Sochan will be the pick if he’s available.

We have a better chance at picking 4 (5.7%), 3 (5.2%), 2 (4.8%) or 1 (4.5%) that we do at 11 (3%).
If you want to make it simple, rounding up chances are this: 50% we stay at 9. 20% we pick 1-4. 25% (roughly) we go down one spot, 5% go do down 2 or more.
So 20% at picking 1-4 is very much a possibility, and if so it's a huge win no matter who we get.

[exstatic]

Yeah I really, really don't like rim-running centers in the lottery but I need to take a close look at Duren. He miiiiight be worth it at 9

A couple of articles from the Stepien….

https://www.thestepien.com/2021/12/2...im-protectors/

https://www.thestepien.com/2022/04/1...of-connectors/

[Silverheart80]

I had Sochan at 5 for a while but I dropped him after I couldn't find one instance of him shooting it straight on any level. I went back years and the guy is a sub-30% three-point shooter and sub-60% free throw shooter at every single stop. That's worrisome. It's also weird because his shot looks relatively smooth and he shoots with confidence. But, yeah, if Chip says Sochan's shot is fixable, I really like him at 9. In today's league, a guy who can play all five positions at a competent level is automatically super valuable.

Agree, Timvp. He's a Swiss Army knife. The other reason I like a high-IQ guy like him at 9 is he's not ready to plug-and-play at NBA level yet. He'll need lots of G-League time. Counter-intuitive, I know, but ideally, I'd like to see the Spurs have a lottery shot at Victor Wembanyama in 2023. So letting Sochan get seasoning in the G-League doesn't affect what I hope will happen in '22-'23. I'm all for the 'soft tank' approach, which means try to win every game with the unbalanced roster we have, keep seasoning the players we have, and take a swing for a true generational talent in Wembanyama.

My hope is the Spurs do whatever is possible with this draft to pass on it, with the aim of instead stockpiling 1st-rounders and assets for the '23 Draft. And if the Spurs can't trade up to get him in the Lottery or outright land the #1 ping-pong ball, the free-agency pool in the summer of '23 is MUCH better than it is this year.

Pending no catastrophic injuries for either, I think Wembanyama's NBA career will far eclipse Chet's. VW will create mismatches on a nightly basis, more than anyone in this current draft. Franchise-changer.

[duncan2150]

I like this big board

Top 4 is locked

After that i also don't have Murray that high, i'm fine with Sochan his defense could be elite, same for Daniels. Except Branham who i like but will be too high imo i like the group of guys for our first pick.

I think there's a good chance that the Spurs take a swing on Jovic or Dieng if they are there at 20

With the 25 take a Center if Koloko, Kamagate or Kessler are on the board.

[The Truth #6]

My guess is Duren goes top ten. Most likely before Spurs pick. He was a top five recruit, he's young, he's plug-and-play and he's a relatively safe pick. He could go as high as five, tbh.

I lean against taking him at nine in the Spurs situation but I've gotta do a deeper dive before I cross him off the list.

I'm curious what you see his ceiling as...Bam? The hope is that he was underutilized at Memphis I suppose. But specifically, I'm trying to understand what skills you might envision him improving. Or, do you see his benefit mostly as defense?

[The Truth #6]

Has a lot that's close to what I've been posting, clearly great minds think alike, right down to having Mathurin so high and declaring him to be what the hopes for Lonnie were.

I'm on the Mathurin-Duren hype train. Sochan is interesting, Daniels is promising. But give me all the swag. The greater the swag the bigger the target for swagger jacking when Pop goes big game swag hunting, but it's worth the risk.

I don't get everything you're saying here but, damn, I'm excited to find out. Ha.

[DPG21920]

My guess is Duren goes top ten. Most likely before Spurs pick. He was a top five recruit, he's young, he's plug-and-play and he's a relatively safe pick. He could go as high as five, tbh.

I lean against taking him at nine in the Spurs situation but I've gotta do a deeper dive before I cross him off the list.

Sure - we dont know exactly where he goes, just saying if SA has pick 13 as well for example, they can take Duren if he falls to 9 and still get one of their top 10 guys most likely. Makes him little to no risk at that point is all I am saying with regards to getting to double dip on the lottery picks (take the gamble on Duren if you can and still get a top 4 guy you were realistically targeting).

[DPG21920]

Do you think Duren will be better than Poeltl? I don't know college players, so I am genuinely asking.

Not sure - I would say defensively (even if slightly different on that end) he could be as valuable. I think its safe to say he would be a better all around version of Jakob in a few years though. It’s more about value. He will have more value due to his athletic tools and age, so turning Poeltl +25 into pick 13 allows SA to take Duren at 9 if he’s available, but still get someone they would have liked at 9 anyways. Gets SA younger, more upside and more versatile with little to no risk (losing Poeltl as good as he has been will not set SA back at all bigger picture IMO)

And to be clear - I am not really advocating doing these deals so you can get Duren. I am just saying that if you use Jakob to move up into lottery with CHA for example then he makes some sense. But I would still do the deal if it meant picking 9 and 13 with no Duren at all..

[rascal]

Not sure - I would say defensively (even if slightly different on that end) he could be as valuable. I think its safe to say he would be a better all around version of Jakob in a few years though. It’s more about value. He will have more value due to his athletic tools and age, so turning Poeltl +25 into pick 13 allows SA to take Duren at 9 if he’s available, but still get someone they would have liked at 9 anyways. Gets SA younger, more upside and more versatile with little to no risk (losing Poeltl as good as he has been will not set SA back at all bigger picture IMO)

Duren is better defensively than Poeltl. Is a better rim protector and intimidator and is more athletic and quicker defensively.

[DPG21920]

Duren is better defensively than Poeltl. Is a better rim protector and intimidator and is more athletic and quicker defensively.

I took the question to mean immediately. I dont think he would come in and be better in terms of winning games now than Jakob. Long term? Sure.

[rjv]

well, , ben simmons will never be able to shoot worth a damn and he's still a commodity because of his prowess on the defensive end. so i wouldn't be put off if the spurs went with sochan especially since the spurs are one of the best at player development.

[Dejounte]

well, , ben simmons will never be able to shoot worth a damn and he's still a commodity because of his prowess on the defensive end. so i wouldn't be put off if the spurs went with sochan especially since the spurs are one of the best at player development.

All things are not equal. Somehow Duren will take advantage of that player development more than others because *gasp* hE’s So YoUnG!

[CGD]

Interesting nugget, that the Spurs were rumored to like Mathurin last year.
Could mean back to back Canadian selections.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Just like last year, you put together a real big board. It's a little light on Spurs' priorities, IMO, and more BPA - but I get that. Taking them in pairs or 3's was a nice touch.

My only real cringe moment was about Sochan: "Sochan is a 6-foot-9 18-year-old who legitimately may be able to play all five positions on both offense and defense on the NBA level." At best, on the offensive end he would be a non-shooting version of those positions. At best.

Your take on Mathurin being a second bite of the LWIV apple makes some sense. It still means just an incremental improvement at that position, rather than shoring up the PF position, but if they've decided that Lonnie doesn't have a future here it at least fits. But I'm not a fan of piling up 6'5 - 6'6 prospects without some truly major differentiation. BPA only goes so far unless they have some specific trade targets in mind.

The writing heads have had Johnny Davis associated with the Spurs for months. I'm glad that you didn't indicate that he's one that the Spurs have been focused on. I like Keegan Murray more than you do, but it won't matter because I'm confident he won't be there past #6 anyway. But the combine has got to make some adjustments to big boards, especially near the middle of the draft.

Just curious - did you get to watch Jabari Walker play this season? And did you notice that even though his 3P shot wasn't falling early, he shot right at .500 from the arc over the last half? He checks a lot of boxes for the Spurs. And, IMO, on the BPA list once it gets that far down the board.

[JPB]

Holgrem is gonna bust hard tbh. Also not high on Duren like a lot here are. Think Duren will at least be an NBA-caliber bench player with the ability to start while Holgrem might be out of the league in 4-5 years.

Not judging your post in itself but this take is the reason why people calling this draft rich and full of game changers are just guessing, or eventually wishful thinking cos spurs happen to have 3 picks, including a high one, this year... Everyone has completely different opinion on players, from great to meh, which is perfectly fine but should invite one to moderation...

Over time, we'll see people radically change their mind about that player spurs should get but anymore cos he sucks finally and vice and versa... Let's at least wait for the combine and tryouts before making definitive conclusions, where we know mock drafts an player hypes may be very different.

[Mr. Body]

1. I'd be surprised to see the Spurs go with more than two rookies next year, mildly surprised if they go with only one. It's not a stretch to say they will try to package the second two picks and move up, or will target a stash prospect with one of them. I'm unsure what happens with the 2nd rounder. Trading one or two picks for future picks also works. I take little creedence in the rumors of Poeltl going to Charlotte; like the Aldridge-for-Wiseman swap, taken a life of their own.

2. It's a draft heavy in bigs, which is great. They're all flawed, which isn't. If we get a top pick, I favor Holmgren. Second is probably Banchero, although I despise watching Ratface's teams and didn't see him much. People are right to caution about Holmgren's weight and strength but seem to miss how skilled he is. I believe he'd be a high pick even several inches shorter, but then add to that being a mobile shotblocking monster.

3. Some players are streaking up boards already and the evaluations haven't even begun. These include Dyson, Branham, and Dieng. Because there are good prospects at needed positions there, I favor Keegan Murray, Jeremy Sochan, Tari Eason, possibly Duren. There are guards and wings that still intrigue, especially Mathurin, possibly Johnny Davis. The team badly needs a guy who can create buckets. Each of the bigs has question marks - Eason, for example, gets tunnel vision and is undisciplined in major ways, but is ridiculously productive - but the one who continues to intrigue me is Sochan. A dynamic, multi-dimensional defender with burgeoning playmaking skills although his shot is poor.

4. While I don't think there are many apparent 'stars'/'superstars' in this draft, I do think it has some legs, and value will be found into the twenties. If the first pick yields one of the above, the second pick is sort of gravy in terms of immediate impact. Mark Williams, Kessler, some of the wings like Jovic... there are still a ton of options laying around. One oddity of this draft is a lack of scoring guards, however, which last draft was very good at. A Blake Wesley or Patrick Baldwin, Jr., may be optimal here - guys who are projects but have intriguing tools. Agbaji with the 20 could be very good.

5. At this point, I feel like Walker is moving on, leaving a 'gap' for a scorer off the bench who is not Richardson. I can see Poeltl getting traded, I just doubt it right now. He's beyond valuable to the team and I feel letting him go sets everyone back. If the team manages to get into the teens with the later picks, I'd be pretty pumped, I just don't know what teams would have interest. Look at who is between picks 13 and 18. Maybe Atlanta? Would Charlotte want to move back with one of their picks, getting two? I'm unsure.

In sum, I hope to come away with a good big man (or strong swingman like Sochan), and a pretty good scoring guard or second tier among big men (Williams, Kessler). This seems well within the range of possibilities. Aside from this, either move the last FRP and/or the SRP for future draft capital or stashes.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Duren is better defensively than Poeltl. Is a better rim protector and intimidator and is more athletic and quicker defensively.

Duren plays, and will play with more aggression than Jakob. He'll get out and run more than Jakob. I think he would be a pretty good fit on a roster like GSW.

It's not that he's necessarily such a bad pick at 9 or 10. But he's a bad pick for THIS team there.

[Ariel]

My only real cringe moment was about Sochan: "Sochan is a 6-foot-9 18-year-old who legitimately may be able to play all five positions on both offense and defense on the NBA level." At best, on the offensive end he would be a non-shooting version of those positions. At best.

I do not agree with that at all. Lets acknowledge that he's an inefficient shooter as of now. Bad, frankly, nearing 30% on 3 pointers and 60% on FTs.
That said, he's actually quite skilled and can drive to the basket and finish, post up, pass, moves well without the ball, is smart at reading the plays... he's definitely not a go to scorer, but he's far from a liability on offense already. Also, he doesn't have a horrible shot that looks beyond salvation, and he is not afraid of taking them like Simmons.
If he manages to improve a reasonable amount, say getting to 33% - 35% on 3s and high 60s on FTs, he has no real flaws to be exploited and a very well rounded game. That's not unreasonable, given the Spurs track record on the matter and that he's about the same age as Primo and Duren (who are farther behind in their development I'd argue).
And given everything that he brings to the table, that's a reasonable gamble. Now if you'd tell me you're taking him top 4... yes, it's too much. But around 10, I think it's fair.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I do not agree with that at all. Lets acknowledge that he's an inefficient shooter as of now. Bad, frankly, nearing 30% on 3 pointers and 60% on FTs.
That said, he's actually quite skilled and can drive to the basket and finish, post up, pass, moves well without the ball, is smart at reading the plays... he's definitely not a go to scorer, but he's far from a liability on offense already. Also, he doesn't have a horrible shot that looks beyond salvation, and he is not afraid of taking them like Simmons.
If he manages to improve a reasonable amount, say getting to 33% - 35% on 3s and high 60s on FTs, he has no real flaws to be exploited and a very well rounded game. That's not unreasonable, given the Spurs track record on the matter and that he's about the same age as Primo and Duren (who are farther behind in their development I'd argue).
And given everything that he brings to the table, that's a reasonable gamble. Now if you'd tell me you're taking him top 4... yes, it's too much. But around 10, I think it's fair.

LOL. My arguing days are behind me (I hope). I'll just say this. If I just had a buck for every comment I've read over the years from people saying, "... if he can just learn to shoot 3's". I'd be more than happy to pay back double to all of those people for the ones who actually learned to shoot 3's.

Here's one clue that a guy doesn't have the stroke to be a consistent 3P shooter - his FT% was .585. I know, I know... Bruce Bowen. But stop and think. Bowen averaged about 6 points per game over his career, and not much more than that in his best seasons.

My response was about the idea of him playing all 5 positions. That's more than a bit hyperbolic. It gets a lot harder to stay objective thinking in those kinds of terms. If Sochan was really that much of a unicorn, he'd be in the discussion for Top 4.

9 points, 6.5 boards, and .8 3P per game. Taking him at 9 wouldn't be a value pick, it would be a leap of faith. Maybe he'll be worthy of that kind of leap.

[MultiTroll]

there's no way he can survive physically at the NBA level. , he struggled in the tournament against collegiate-level athletes.

11/14 w 2 blocks in only 24 minutes of an average scoring game is good. He also blocks in a way to give team possession of ball.
Zag guards and SFs were pathetic.

Would immediately improve Spurs.

[MultiTroll]

My response was about the idea of him playing all 5 positions. That's more than a bit hyperbolic. It gets a lot harder to stay objective thinking in those kinds of terms. If Sochan was really that much of a unicorn, he'd be in the discussion for Top 4.

Yep.

[rjv]

it'd be really interesting to see how many of these potential first and second rounders will participate in the combine

[Ariel]

LOL. My arguing days are behind me (I hope). I'll just say this. If I just had a buck for every comment I've read over the years from people saying, "... if he can just learn to shoot 3's". I'd be more than happy to pay back double to all of those people for the ones who actually learned to shoot 3's.

Here's one clue that a guy doesn't have the stroke to be a consistent 3P shooter - his FT% was .585. I know, I know... Bruce Bowen. But stop and think. Bowen averaged about 6 points per game over his career, and not much more than that in his best seasons.

My response was about the idea of him playing all 5 positions. That's more than a bit hyperbolic. It gets a lot harder to stay objective thinking in those kinds of terms. If Sochan was really that much of a unicorn, he'd be in the discussion for Top 4.

9 points, 6.5 boards, and .8 3P per game. Taking him at 9 wouldn't be a value pick, it would be a leap of faith. Maybe he'll be worthy of that kind of leap.

Well... let's just say I'm more confident in him improving his shooting than I am on Chet being able to hold his own in the paint with NBA level athletes. Time will tell.