Official 2022 NBA Draft thread

[Mr. Body]

^ NCAAB is a relic of the past.

I can see a world in 5 years where the majority of top FRPs emerge from GLeague and/or Euro Pro leagues, with college picks fading into late FRPs and SRPs. The gulf between pro and college talent is so damn big now (it’s increasingly painful to watch the college product) that i can see the GLeague Ignite model carving out a nice niche

I'm not sure. The NIL has a chance to turn the NCAA into a wild west free for all where top talent gets paid way more than many rookies do. The head of the NCAA is stepping down. I mean, it's a organization to start, but they completely failed to lay any groundwork for a big situation.

[Mr. Body]

I think the image and likeness money will kill that momentum. The college product is painful to watch because of the 40 second shot clock, not the talent level, which is far better than the gleague. If they would cut the shot clock to 24 or 25 seconds, it would increase possessions and scoring. There is so much dead time spent not attacking or trying to score.

The shot clock has been 30 seconds in college since 2015. It was actually 35 since 1993. I do think the individual level of play in the NCAA is often pretty poor, with many teams not able to make jump shots or dribble up the court. They're incapable of making basketball reads in many situations. However, the team play is much better than in the G-League. Far better. So a player learns how to play within a team format, how to adjust to teammates and make them better, and perhaps most importantly, how opposing defenses will gear against them.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, I agree about the shot clock. But I don't know about the affect of image/likeness money. The change in transfer rules helps the big programs that bring in the big money to the system. And the image/likeness money will mean that these kids will be able to have an established brand before they complete 1 year of college. The really good ones will come into the league as congolmerates, and with leverage over the teams. "Do X,Y,Z or I'll take my entourage elsewhere." And that will REALLY make it tough on teams from small media markets.

Again, good or bad is pretty much beside the point. It just is. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're approaching a tipping point where the spectacle is bigger than the game itself.

I'm unsure how the transfer portal will affect things entirely. It could be good for mid-major and relatively smaller schools, where a player who wasn't quite ready or couldn't get time at a major program can go to develop. Tons of the best NBA players went to out of the way schools.

[rascal]

It goes much deeper than that. There are serious questions as to whether he actually graduated high school in time or not, at first it was reported he didn't and that's why he wasn't playing this year, now all of the sudden the paperwork appeared and he graduated on time, which makes you wonder why he didn't play in college in the first place... there are a lot of murky things surrounding him, a lot of coincidental events that sound extremely su ious.

If he handles himself this way now and you still invest heavily on him now (it would take a top 4 pick to get him, IMO), you don't get to play surprised when he turns on you a few years down the road.

Sharpe is too athletic for the Spurs.

And the Spurs tend to be very conservative and risk adversed although Sharpe isn't any type of risk to me. The Spurs lack athleticism overall as a team.

[Ariel]

The Spurs don’t think like that. They create an entire draft board of players, and at each pick, they just pick the highest remaining player on their board.

Every team has a big board. That doesn't mean you shouldn't weight in information from other teams' needs when you have multiple picks.

Say we get to 20 and players A, B, C are available, in that order of preference. But you have credible intel that teams picking at 21-24 are interested in B only.

One (conservative) strategy would be take A at 20 and worry at 25 when you get there. That will guarantee you land your first choice, but also that you'll lose your second.

Another (speculative) strategy would be take B at 20 and bet that A will still be there at 25. That means you maximize your chances of getting both A and B, at the expense of a small chance of having to go with C at 25 if you got your facts wrong.

If the gap between A and B is smaller than the gap between B and C, it'd be stupid to go with the conservative strategy without considering the alternative. And though the Spurs may be conservative, they sure aren't stupid. So I have to believe they take stuff like this into consideration before making a decision.

Actually... weren't you the one arguing they took Primo at 12 because they had info he'd be taken if they traded back?

[Ariel]

Sharpe is too athletic for the Spurs.

And the Spurs tend to be very conservative and risk adversed although Sharpe isn't any type of risk to me. The Spurs lack athleticism overall as a team.

Athleticism is part of the equation. But basketball is a team sport, and knowing how to play and having the work ethic to put in the effort required is even more important than freakish athleticism. So at this point it's all a matter of how you ponder it all. Given that info is he'll go very high, our only chance would be taking him top 4 if we're lucky in the lottery, and if we get there I have Banchero and Ivey over him by a landslide. That's not to say he's going to be a bust, but he's made sure that's all there is to judge him on, and in light of all other concerns, it's not enough for me to put him over more proven talent. I'd consider him later on, but not at that range.

[rascal]

Every team has a big board. That doesn't mean you shouldn't weight in information from other teams' needs when you have multiple picks.

Say we get to 20 and players A, B, C are available, in that order of preference. But you have credible intel that teams picking at 21-24 are interested in B only.

One (conservative) strategy would be take A at 20 and worry at 25 when you get there. That will guarantee you land your first choice, but also that you'll lose your second.

Another (speculative) strategy would be take B at 20 and bet that A will still be there at 25. That means you maximize your chances of getting both A and B, at the expense of a small chance of having to go with C at 25 if you got your facts wrong.

If the gap between A and B is smaller than the gap between B and C, it'd be stupid to go with the conservative strategy without considering the alternative. And though the Spurs may be conservative, they sure aren't stupid. So I have to believe they take stuff like this into consideration before making a decision.

Actually... weren't you the one arguing they took Primo at 12 because they had info he'd be taken if they traded back?

No doubt the smart thing to do is to be flexible with your draft board and try to maximize both picks when they are close. Try to get both of your targeted players. If you draft fantasy teams that's what you do if drafting on the ends of a snake draft. You see who the guy next to you might take depending on his roster needs then you draft according to what he might do to maximize both of your picks.

[pad300]

MPJ has a genetic condition that affects his connective tissue. His brother and sister have it, too. Not the same thing as recovering from a sprained knee.

I'm pretty sure that AJ Griffin has had a lot more than a sprained knee.

[duncan2150]

I'm pretty sure that AJ Griffin has had a lot more than a sprained knee.

he is coming from a sprained knee this year nothing more but in 2020 i believe he had a discloated knee injury.

[exstatic]

Yeah, I agree about the shot clock. But I don't know about the affect of image/likeness money. The change in transfer rules helps the big programs that bring in the big money to the system. And the image/likeness money will mean that these kids will be able to have an established brand before they complete 1 year of college. The really good ones will come into the league as congolmerates, and with leverage over the teams. "Do X,Y,Z or I'll take my entourage elsewhere." And that will REALLY make it tough on teams from small media markets.

Again, good or bad is pretty much beside the point. It just is. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're approaching a tipping point where the spectacle is bigger than the game itself.

I was just responding to CGD, who said that the NCAA was history, and would be replaced by the gleague. Their pampered show ponies the Ignite only play in the 15 game cup tournament, and then in early January, kind of drop off the map. With money now in the NCAA, and the hype and history of the big programs, NCAA mens basketball is going nowhere.

[buttsR4rebounding]

It goes much deeper than that. There are serious questions as to whether he actually graduated high school in time or not, at first it was reported he didn't and that's why he wasn't playing this year, now all of the sudden the paperwork appeared and he graduated on time, which makes you wonder why he didn't play in college in the first place... there are a lot of murky things surrounding him, a lot of coincidental events that sound extremely su ious.

If he handles himself this way now and you still invest heavily on him now (it would take a top 4 pick to get him, IMO), you don't get to play surprised when he turns on you a few years down the road.

His high school graduation is very suspect. In the end they said he graduated last May. If that was the case why wouldn't he just enroll at Kentucky in September. I would bet money some high school principal pocketed a nice payday for forging the do ents, but it doesn't matter in the final analysis. Nobody cares and there is too much money on the line. If he is a top 6 pick like everyone expects right now you are talking $20 million plus over 4 years. No one would pass that up and do whatever they needed to make it happen.

[Mr. Body]

I was just responding to CGD, who said that the NCAA was history, and would be replaced by the gleague. Their pampered show ponies the Ignite only play in the 15 game cup tournament, and then in early January, kind of drop off the map. With money now in the NCAA, and the hype and history of the big programs, NCAA mens basketball is going nowhere.

I agree. If anything, this could cement power in the NCAA even more. If a player makes good money in college, he may be more inclined to stay. Especially in football, where getting a million dollars playing for Alabama may beat non-guaranteed contracts playing for some franchise in the NFL. At least it's become an option.

Then you have massive college fanbases. I don't see those going anywhere. The exposure and just the money itself is huge in college sports and now you have boosters opening their huge wallets. No one gives a about the G-League and that's never going to change. And now the money a guy can make in the G-League will pale compared to what Kansas or UNC can give them.

[exstatic]

Every team has a big board. That doesn't mean you shouldn't weight in information from other teams' needs when you have multiple picks.

Say we get to 20 and players A, B, C are available, in that order of preference. But you have credible intel that teams picking at 21-24 are interested in B only.

One (conservative) strategy would be take A at 20 and worry at 25 when you get there. That will guarantee you land your first choice, but also that you'll lose your second.

Another (speculative) strategy would be take B at 20 and bet that A will still be there at 25. That means you maximize your chances of getting both A and B, at the expense of a small chance of having to go with C at 25 if you got your facts wrong.

If the gap between A and B is smaller than the gap between B and C, it'd be stupid to go with the conservative strategy without considering the alternative. And though the Spurs may be conservative, they sure aren't stupid. So I have to believe they take stuff like this into consideration before making a decision.

Actually... weren't you the one arguing they took Primo at 12 because they had info he'd be taken if they traded back?

That doesn’t contradict Primo being the player at the top of their board. In fact that supports the camp that says they pick player A in your scenario, and not around. When BW thinks he can leverage additional assets, he does. Otherwise, no.

It’s been said over and over through the years how the Spurs conduct their draft. Keep imagining it your way, though.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I'm unsure how the transfer portal will affect things entirely. It could be good for mid-major and relatively smaller schools, where a player who wasn't quite ready or couldn't get time at a major program can go to develop. Tons of the best NBA players went to out of the way schools.

I'm curious how that will help the smaller schools? Seriously, not arguing, just wondering what how you're looking at this. To me it seems like the players who weren't ready or were overlooked in high school will jump ship at their first chance to try and go to a major and improve their visibility for the draft. To me, that seems good for the big program, but not so much for the smaller ones.

Maybe when they start paying them, they can also ins ute some kind of salary cap and offset rules for trades. "Sorry, but you're being traded to Appalachia State." Now we're talking! Give 'em the full NBA experience.

[R. DeMurre]

I long for the days when I used to be nostalgic.

(nice turn of phrase)

[Mr. Body]

I'm curious how that will help the smaller schools? Seriously, not arguing, just wondering what how you're looking at this. To me it seems like the players who weren't ready or were overlooked in high school will jump ship at their first chance to try and go to a major and improve their visibility for the draft. To me, that seems good for the big program, but not so much for the smaller ones.

Maybe when they start paying them, they can also ins ute some kind of salary cap and offset rules for trades. "Sorry, but you're being traded to Appalachia State." Now we're talking! Give 'em the full NBA experience.

There will be players who can't get time at bigger programs or are getting recruited over. Those guys will look elsewhere. Walker Kessler didn't get time at UNC and went to Auburn. Keion Brooks is leaving Kentucky and will likely go to a smaller program. Khristian Lander was a five star who wasn't ready to play at Indiana and has gone to Western Kentucky. The transfer portal lets players go immediately, whereas sitting out a full year was prohibitive before. I honestly don't see top players leaving to big programs as much. It's too risky to leave good situations and often will find more compe ion at their positions. Of course they could simply leave to the pros once they're ready.

[Mr. Body]

I'm curious how that will help the smaller schools? Seriously, not arguing, just wondering what how you're looking at this. To me it seems like the players who weren't ready or were overlooked in high school will jump ship at their first chance to try and go to a major and improve their visibility for the draft. To me, that seems good for the big program, but not so much for the smaller ones.

Maybe when they start paying them, they can also ins ute some kind of salary cap and offset rules for trades. "Sorry, but you're being traded to Appalachia State." Now we're talking! Give 'em the full NBA experience.

And I don't think visibility at the draft is difficult for players at smaller schools. Stephen Curry went to Davidson. Damien Lillard went to Weber State. CJ McCollum went to Lehigh. Gordon Hayward went to Butler. They all went in the lottery. Going to bigger schools, they might not have been able to develop the same way they did.

[R. DeMurre]

His high school graduation is very suspect. In the end they said he graduated last May. If that was the case why wouldn't he just enroll at Kentucky in September. I would bet money some high school principal pocketed a nice payday for forging the do ents, but it doesn't matter in the final analysis. Nobody cares and there is too much money on the line. If he is a top 6 pick like everyone expects right now you are talking $20 million plus over 4 years. No one would pass that up and do whatever they needed to make it happen.

Let's be honest though, Primo's high school history is a bit odd too. He went to Huntington Prep in West Virginia, which ran into some mysterious troubles, transferred to Arizona, then left to return to a high school in Toronto. He reclassified at some point to graduate early so he could attend Alabama. Alabama has a history of being involved with players who reclassify in high school in order to attend college early, having also done that with Kira Lewis Jr and other players. It's a nice trick to grab prospects early, but I wonder how well it would hold up to serious scrutiny. A couple of articles I've read and Primo's wiki page don't mention the Compass Prep school in Arizona at all, but press releases from the school call Primo a "former senior and 2020 graduate," claiming him as an NBA draft pick who was a product of their program.


https://voiceofmotown.com/whats-real...tholic-school/
https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nba/...s1bzqn3e2jb6yy
https://azcompassprep.com/first-az-c...-in-nba-draft/

[KingKev]

^ haha not finishing HS only adds to the allure… he hasn’t even graduated HS yet!!!!

Imagine how good he’ll be when he gets his GED. BBIQ to the moon!

[R. DeMurre]

[ZeusWillJudge]

And I don't think visibility at the draft is difficult for players at smaller schools. Stephen Curry went to Davidson. Damien Lillard went to Weber State. CJ McCollum went to Lehigh. Gordon Hayward went to Butler. They all went in the lottery. Going to bigger schools, they might not have been able to develop the same way they did.

Yeah but those guys are outliers. And Hayward took Butler to the NCAA finals. I'm just saying that if there was an open door to switch schools, Steph and Dame (for instance) might have decided to go to a bigger program.

Look at it another way - I'm sure Duncan made a lot of money off endorsements, even playing in a small media market. But a lot of players, if they had his talent, would have decided that they could make a lot more off endorsements than salary, and moved to a bigger market. I think some of the same principle will hold with college players transferring. Keep an eye on it, and we'll compare notes in 5-6 years.

[BackHome]

So who we gonna draft?

[Mr. Body]

Yeah but those guys are outliers. And Hayward took Butler to the NCAA finals. I'm just saying that if there was an open door to switch schools, Steph and Dame (for instance) might have decided to go to a bigger program.

Look at it another way - I'm sure Duncan made a lot of money off endorsements, even playing in a small media market. But a lot of players, if they had his talent, would have decided that they could make a lot more off endorsements than salary, and moved to a bigger market. I think some of the same principle will hold with college players transferring. Keep an eye on it, and we'll compare notes in 5-6 years.

Yeah, I don't think you're really understanding, but that's okay.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Yeah, I don't think you're really understanding, but that's okay.

I just don't think there will be that many lesser players wanting to jump down a level when they get to be part of a top-tier program. A few, but not that many. But I do think that a lot of the best of the small-program players will jump to top-tier teams if they can. And that will weaken the smaller colleges, and strengthen the bigger ones. The ones that don't jump? Well they'll stay put just like they always have.

But the bit about them staying in a small program to develop? Most don't show much interest in staying in college an extra year to develop. Maybe I'm just too cynical.

Pretty sure I understand, I just don't see it your way. And, yeah, that's okay. We're pretty far off-topic.

[Mr. Body]

So who we gonna draft?

Josh Primo's brother.