Spurs Big Board 3.0: The Post-Combine Update

[R. DeMurre]

Jaylin Williams is such an odd character. He's 6'10" with a 7'1" wingspan, and at the combine had a below average lane agility time, an above average shuttle run, a slowish 3/4 court sprint, and shorter than average hand length but wider than average hand width. The thing I keep seeing with his impact stats is that he's repeatedly ranked above Robert Williams in career SEC categories like defensive rebounding percentage, defensive rating, defensive box +/-. Robert Williams is a much better leaper with a longer wingspan, but their two names consistently come up close together in most categories, with Jaylin always having a slight edge. He was the most impactful player on an Arkansas team that went 28-9, where all of his scoring & rebound totals were dramatically better in the second half of the season compared to the first, and he rebounded & defended especially well in big games against LSU, Gonzaga, and Duke. Such an interesting prospect and potential pick if still around at #38.

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Jaylin Williams is such an odd character. He's 6'10" with a 7'1" wingspan, and at the combine had a below average lane agility time, an above average shuttle run, a slowish 3/4 court sprint, and shorter than average hand length but wider than average hand width. The thing I keep seeing with his impact stats is that he's repeatedly ranked above Robert Williams in career SEC categories like defensive rebounding percentage, defensive rating, defensive box +/-. Robert Williams is a much better leaper with a longer wingspan, but their two names consistently come up close together in most categories, with Jaylin always having a slight edge. He was the most impactful player on an Arkansas team that went 28-9, where all of his scoring & rebound totals were dramatically better in the second half of the season compared to the first, and he rebounded & defended especially well in big games against LSU, Gonzaga, and Duke. Such an interesting prospect and potential pick if still around at #38.

Rumor: Arkansas’ Jaylin Williams has received NBA draft promise (usatoday.com)

[Ariel]

This would be awesome but I'm really afraid of the possibility none of your guys at 20 (except for maybe Liddell or Jovic) are there for that pick, let alone 25. Might end up more like:

9) Mathurin/Daniels/Sochan/Eason/Dieng/Williams
20) Porcida/Minott/Smith/Liddell/Jovic
25) Porcida/Minott/Smith

Here you've got 15 guys who are pretty much guaranteed to go top 20:
99% chance: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey, Shaedon Sharpe, Keegan Murray, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, Jeremy Sochan, Johnny Davis, Jalen Duren
95% chance: AJ Griffin, Mark Williams, Ochai Agbaji, Malaki Branham

There's only 4 extra picks before us at 20, and a lot of guys could slide in there as well: Jaden Hardy, Walker Kessler, TyTy Washington, Kennedy Chandler, MarJon Beauchamp, Kendall Brown, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Bryce McGowens

So even if only one of those are taken (more likely 2), that means only three players from my 20/25 list (Tari Eason, Ousmane Dieng, Jalen Williams, Blake Wesley, Nikola Jovic, EJ Liddell) will likely be taken by 20, leaving 3 available. So I think it's over 95% Jalen Williams or Blake Wesley are still on the board and if they're not it means someone got pushed back (like Branham).

By 25 I think some of them will still be on the board, because teams picking 21-24 are contenders with specific needs (Denver, Memphis, Brooklyn/Philly, Milwaukee) chances are good at least 2 of those are there by 25. Also different teams have different boards, so quite a few surprises will jump into the top 24. All in all, I believe there is a lot of value to be had, and it's on us if we blow it.

[Dejounte]

Putting stock into how players are projected is proven silly when you feel like a player like Branham gets pushed down and consider a guy like him any better than the guys who will be available there anyway. It’s exactly why teams miss out on great players and why fans always get this wrong.

[Ariel]

Putting stock into how players are projected is proven silly when you feel like a player like Branham gets pushed down and consider a guy like him any better than the guys who will be available there anyway. It’s exactly why teams miss out on great players and why fans always get this wrong.

It's a simplified scenario based on reasonable assumptions, because you can't lay out a 10 page algorithm contemplating every possible cir stance (including trades up/down, picks switching hands, etc). So I'm trying to make an assessment of, AT THE VERY LEAST, what we can hope to get. If someone assumed to be picked before is there and you like him, you take him. If you don't, you go ahead as planned. Duh.

PS: If we go with a forward at no. 9 and my preferred options are unavailable at 20 and he is there, yes, I'd consider him a viable option.

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FWIW, I tried putting Banchero on the Spurs in NBA 2K22 and simulating a game with him in the starting lineup. It was a lot of fun making that pipe dream a reality, at least virtually.

The Rockets could be scary good in 3 years, assuming that's who they take.

[scott]

Here you've got 15 guys who are pretty much guaranteed to go top 20:
99% chance: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey, Shaedon Sharpe, Keegan Murray, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, Jeremy Sochan, Johnny Davis, Jalen Duren
95% chance: AJ Griffin, Mark Williams, Ochai Agbaji, Malaki Branham

There's only 4 extra picks before us at 20, and a lot of guys could slide in there as well: Jaden Hardy, Walker Kessler, TyTy Washington, Kennedy Chandler, MarJon Beauchamp, Kendall Brown, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Bryce McGowens

So even if only one of those are taken (more likely 2), that means only three players from my 20/25 list (Tari Eason, Ousmane Dieng, Jalen Williams, Blake Wesley, Nikola Jovic, EJ Liddell) will likely be taken by 20, leaving 3 available. So I think it's over 95% Jalen Williams or Blake Wesley are still on the board and if they're not it means someone got pushed back (like Branham).

By 25 I think some of them will still be on the board, because teams picking 21-24 are contenders with specific needs (Denver, Memphis, Brooklyn/Philly, Milwaukee) chances are good at least 2 of those are there by 25. Also different teams have different boards, so quite a few surprises will jump into the top 24. All in all, I believe there is a lot of value to be had, and it's on us if we blow it.

I definitely understand - my fear is that the two I'm only meh on (Liddell and Jovic) will be the ones there at 20. I don't know much about Wesley, so my reaction to taking him at 20 would be based largely on the reaction of this message board on draft day, lol.

[scott]

The Rockets could be scary good in 3 years, assuming that's who they take.

That would require some degree in confidence in their management and coaching staff. For now, I'm not too worried about them. They've quickly evolved into OKC/SAC level forever terrible.

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That would require some degree in confidence in their management and coaching staff. For now, I'm not too worried about them. They've quickly evolved into OKC/SAC level forever terrible.

True. But based on the picks they have, the talent they have, and the trade pieces they have, they're gonna have lots of chances to up. Plus, I really like Coach Silas. Think he's the right guy for them to continue developing some good talent. Patient yet firm. Good basketball pedigree.

[Ariel]

I definitely understand - my fear is that the two I'm only meh on (Liddell and Jovic) will be the ones there at 20. I don't know much about Wesley, so my reaction to taking him at 20 would be based largely on the reaction of this message board on draft day, lol.

Raw but athletic combo guard with high scoring potential:



I think there's a good chance he could fill Lonnie's role for cheaper and with higher potential.