Draft Strategy: Trading Down With Charlotte

[rascal]

That’s not even remotely true. There’s a “level” that extends 12-14 picks from the top 4. Somewhere around 18 is where the talent drops off.

Disagree after Sharpe, Mathurin and Murray the draft drops off. Those guys are at a higher tier than what comes after.

[mo7888]

Disagree after Sharpe, Mathurin and Murray the draft drops off. Those guys are at a higher tier than what comes after.

I agree that there's a bit of a drop-off after #8 as that's where me 2nd tier ends but, I'm curious who you have in that top 8...

[rascal]

I agree that there's a bit of a drop-off after #8 as that's where me 2nd tier ends but, I'm curious who you have in that top 8...

Drop off is about at 8. There might be a team that reaches for a player and either Mathurin, Sharpe or Murray falls to pick 8.

The Spurs will need two reaches(Griffin, Duren, Daniels etc) which is unlikely to get Mathurin, Murray or Sharpe.

[CGD]

I agree that there's a bit of a drop-off after #8 as that's where me 2nd tier ends but, I'm curious who you have in that top 8...

Davis, Duren, Sochan, Griffin, and Williams feel like the tier 3 guys spanning 9-13.

Then it’s an eye of the beholder thing, but probably a group lead by Deing and Eason.

[Mr. Body]

Davis, Duren, Sochan, Griffin, and Williams feel like the tier 3 guys spanning 9-13.

Then it’s an eye of the beholder thing, but probably a group lead by Deing and Eason.

Tier 2 is really rather large. Including those you mentioned, it also is some above 9 -- Mathurin, Sharpe, Dyson Daniels. You can't really make a case that any of them are much higher than any of the others. I would put Ivey and Keegan Murray as a sort of 1b. This doesn't account for guys like Branham who we've tended to ignore on this board but who may be highly regarded.

[Ariel]

Drop off is about at 8. There might be a team that reaches for a player and either Mathurin, Sharpe or Murray falls to pick 8.

The Spurs will need two reaches(Griffin, Duren, Daniels etc) which is unlikely to get Mathurin, Murray or Sharpe.

There's not such a huge drop off from you proposed top 8, at Mathurin's position you have Dyson Daniels, Johnny Davis, Malaki Branham and Jalen Williams who are about the same caliber prospect as Mathurin, plus Sochan, Eason and Duren who fit our roster better. Also further down the board you have Dalen Terry, Blake Wesley, Jaden Hardy, Bryce McGowens, many players who could reasonably end up being really good players. I like Mathurin, but I don't think he's that far apart from those other guys to warrant grossly overpaying to get him... in fact I'm more in favor or trading down from 9 to the late lottery to get 2 of those, like Sochan/Eason + Jalen Williams/Branham. That seems like a better plan in my eyes, when you have a glut of guys who don't stand out that much from each other, being flexible and doubling your chances seems like a good plan.

[rascal]

There's not such a huge drop off from you proposed top 8, at Mathurin's position you have Dyson Daniels, Johnny Davis, Malaki Branham and Jalen Williams who are about the same caliber prospect as Mathurin, plus Sochan, Eason and Duren who fit our roster better. Also further down the board you have Dalen Terry, Blake Wesley, Jaden Hardy, Bryce McGowens, many players who could reasonably end up being really good players. I like Mathurin, but I don't think he's that far apart from those other guys to warrant grossly overpaying to get him... in fact I'm more in favor or trading down from 9 to the late lottery to get 2 of those, like Sochan/Eason + Jalen Williams/Branham. That seems like a better plan in my eyes, when you have a glut of guys who don't stand out that much from each other, being flexible and doubling your chances seems like a good plan.

Mathurin stands out to me as having a higher upside than those other guys. He isn't going to be there at 9.

The guys you want are not any better than the level of players the Spurs currently have on the roster.

[Ariel]

Mathurin stands out to me as having a higher upside than those other guys. He isn't going to be there at 9.

The guys you want are not any better than the level of players the Spurs currently have on the roster.

Oh please. Other than Murray, Vassell, KJ, Richardson and Poeltl, on a contender everyone else we have would be either a fringe rotation player or straight trash.
Pretty much any top 20 pick would be an upgrade over that. And Poeltl and Richardson may be on the way out. WE ARE NOT ONE GUY AWAY... and MATHURIN IS NOT A SURE FIRE STAR EITHER.

[mo7888]

Davis, Duren, Sochan, Griffin, and Williams feel like the tier 3 guys spanning 9-13.

Then it’s an eye of the beholder thing, but probably a group lead by Deing and Eason.

This is my top 2 tiers- I also think two or three guys from there 3 will go in the top 8 and knock a couple of these down to 9

Tier 1
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
Tier 2
5. Keegan Murray
6. Benedict Mathurin
7. Shaedon Sharpe
8. Jalen Duren

[rascal]

Oh please. Other than Murray, Vassell, KJ, Richardson and Poeltl, on a contender everyone else we have would be either a fringe rotation player or straight trash.
Pretty much any top 20 pick would be an upgrade over that. And Poeltl and Richardson may be on the way out. WE ARE NOT ONE GUY AWAY... and MATHURIN IS NOT A SURE FIRE STAR EITHER.

That's what I'm talking about, those draft picks you want are similar to the top players and core of the current roster.

The Spurs need to add a couple of players with higher star power than what is currently on the roster.

[JPB]

"Not such a great difference" is already enough of a difference to value #9 over 13 and 15 to me. That's what can separate top players from good/great players, and a guy who'll win games and elevate you, or not, thanks to the 2-3 pt more /game or the 2-3% best at shooting/game he'll offer every night, and thanks to that even oh so slightly superior amount of talent he'll have over others.

I think we might tend to overevaluate that draft and start to see talent everywhere these last few days, falling in love with new guys every day... It's not. Beware of overexcitment and future disillusions... Let's stay real, objective and stick to what we really know about these players, and let's not suc b to hypes or pimping of all kinds.

Not like we are gonna make the picks anyway, right?

[Mr. Body]

This draft has the Trailblazers at 7 doing the trade-down with Charlotte for the 13 and 15. So at least some substantiation that the terms of the trade are about right.

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