Why the Spurs probably shouldn't draft a center in the lottery

[Chinook]

that's a pretty bad example tbh. The Raptors were clearly interested in a Poeltl trade since the deadline and he has played there before so an extension would basically be guaranteed. Also OG is not the best player on the Raptors roster and the Spurs don't have 3 starting level PGs

OG and Murray have similar value (both higher than Poeltl). Grant and Poeltl have similar value. The gap is real. Toronto wanted a center just like you think the Spurs want a PF. The Spurs don't have three starting PGs, but they are invested in their guards and could easily draft another. OG and Barnes play SF and even C, so it's not like there isn't room for all three in a rotation.

Also, Poeltl would almost certainly refuse a max extension. The debate isn't whether he's worth it but whether anyone could convince him to sign it. It would be a surprise if he didn't just play the market.

[SAGirl]

Jak is our second most important player and he is on 9 million a year . The dude does winning things that don’t show up on the stat sheet. KAT was the lead dog on a losing team. They are only winning bc of Ant not bc of Towns. Jak does all the things Towns refuses to do, he sets hard screens, guards on both the post and the perimeter, and gets dirty. Towns is a pansy of a big man who just wants to jack up jumpers all day. In a vacuum Towns is the better player but in reality, Jak plays winning basketball and Towns plays like a wuss.

JJJ is injured all the time and is more focused on a twitter beef with Klay Thompson than winning games. Plus they are paying him $26 million dollars a year to score 4 more points a game and rebound at a lesser rate than Jak. Both are plus defenders but 4 more points, more shots while giving less rebounds and assists isn’t enough to say he is a better player than Jak.

KAT was the best player in a team that made the playoffs with a 46-36 record, that is a much better record than the Spurs. I do think Edwards has the potential to be the better player and looks like it sometimes. If anything KAT having a legit costar in Edwards (or vice versa) -- the two together has given rise to that team. Does anyone else in that team looked like a legit costar for KAT, or for Edwards? Certainly not, and he was not great in his series against the Grizzlies, but he gave them a lot of trouble, as he's a very difficult player to defend. He beats himself more often than not, which is why I am not fan but if you are saying Jakob --the second best player in a team that missed the playoffs with a record of 34-48 -- is better than KAT leading a team to a 46-36 record, you have something to sell that I am not buying. What's more KAT forces adjustments to other team's defenses because you need a guy that can guard him. It's often overlooked how he made the Grizzlies starting center, Adams unplayable, completely. He's a very tough player to defend and even then, he still went off. Look at KAT stats both regular season and playoffs. Can Jakob win a series for you honestly? Can he even get you in the playoffs? Is he a multiple time all star? Does he have that potential? Can he win you a series against KAT? Noooo. Not against KAT, not against VAlanciunas, not against the Grizzlies, and not against anybody... not in this team anyway.

I am not even a KAT fan tbh, not at all, but you are just ridiculous with your homer glasses.

[The Truth #6]

I’m curious how Yak’s camp/posse sees his future with the Spurs. Were feelings hurt about draft rumors? Has he grown tired of picking up tourists at The Pearl? Seems like he chose to stay in SA. Seems doubtful he’d want to leave, but that’s the only logical factor I can think of for pursuing a center, but even then, he wanting to leave would make a potential trade easier. Seems weird all around. And if CHA is in need of a center, I don’t see them trading with us unless Duren goes early, but if that were the case someone would fall to us, so why would we trade.

Yeah. Draft night will be fun.

[Thomas82]

just watched some too and he's def my guy. Love his atlheticism, energy and fire. Dude is an alley-oop machine, Murray would love him. He'll quickly give you 10 & 10 plus a couple blocks a game. Totally different player than Jak. he's stil a bit raw but only 18 and Im' sure he could develop some post up game, shoot mechanics are OK. Spurs need that contagious energy, you know guys who dunk like they wanted to hurt you.

Cosign!! If this kid is still available at 9, we should sprint to the podium.

[Spurs Homer]

Watching Durens highlight video is actually one of the very few that excite me -

I would hope the Spurs pick him...

and conversely -
Duren looks like the guy that a HATED team will land - and we will be pissed every time the Spurs play that team.

[tim_duncan_fan]

Watching Durens highlight video is actually one of the very few that excite me -

I would hope the Spurs pick him...

and conversely -
Duren looks like the guy that a HATED team will land - and we will be pissed every time the Spurs play that team.

I am pre-emptively laughing at the ferocious oops we will be helpless to stop.

[SAGirl]

Can‘t wait for the meltdown if this happens

I'd absolutely support this tbh. I am on board. Thanks for sharing btw.

[rjv]

KAT was the best player in a team that made the playoffs with a 46-36 record, that is a much better record than the Spurs. I do think Edwards has the potential to be the better player and looks like it sometimes. If anything KAT having a legit costar in Edwards (or vice versa) -- the two together has given rise to that team. Does anyone else in that team looked like a legit costar for KAT, or for Edwards? Certainly not, and he was not great in his series against the Grizzlies, but he gave them a lot of trouble, as he's a very difficult player to defend. He beats himself more often than not, which is why I am not fan but if you are saying Jakob --the second best player in a team that missed the playoffs with a record of 34-48 -- is better than KAT leading a team to a 46-36 record, you have something to sell that I am not buying. What's more KAT forces adjustments to other team's defenses because you need a guy that can guard him. It's often overlooked how he made the Grizzlies starting center, Adams unplayable, completely. He's a very tough player to defend and even then, he still went off. Look at KAT stats both regular season and playoffs. Can Jakob win a series for you honestly? Can he even get you in the playoffs? Is he a multiple time all star? Does he have that potential? Can he win you a series against KAT? Noooo. Not against KAT, not against VAlanciunas, not against the Grizzlies, and not against anybody... not in this team anyway.

I am not even a KAT fan tbh, not at all, but you are just ridiculous with your homer glasses.

that's not what i got from the post. in fact, KA specifically wrote that KAT is the better player. what i got from the post was that Jakob is a better value. i think that's undebatable.

[KobesAchilles]

KAT was the best player in a team that made the playoffs with a 46-36 record, that is a much better record than the Spurs. I do think Edwards has the potential to be the better player and looks like it sometimes. If anything KAT having a legit costar in Edwards (or vice versa) -- the two together has given rise to that team. Does anyone else in that team looked like a legit costar for KAT, or for Edwards? Certainly not, and he was not great in his series against the Grizzlies, but he gave them a lot of trouble, as he's a very difficult player to defend. He beats himself more often than not, which is why I am not fan but if you are saying Jakob --the second best player in a team that missed the playoffs with a record of 34-48 -- is better than KAT leading a team to a 46-36 record, you have something to sell that I am not buying. What's more KAT forces adjustments to other team's defenses because you need a guy that can guard him. It's often overlooked how he made the Grizzlies starting center, Adams unplayable, completely. He's a very tough player to defend and even then, he still went off. Look at KAT stats both regular season and playoffs. Can Jakob win a series for you honestly? Can he even get you in the playoffs? Is he a multiple time all star? Does he have that potential? Can he win you a series against KAT? Noooo. Not against KAT, not against VAlanciunas, not against the Grizzlies, and not against anybody... not in this team anyway.

I am not even a KAT fan tbh, not at all, but you are just ridiculous with your homer glasses.

id rather have Jak on my team than Towns. With all things being equal then of course you take Towns but they aren’t. Towns is immature. He doesn’t play a lick of defense. If KG AND Jimmy Butler say he’s soft on that end then I take their word for it. What propelled the Wolves wasn’t that Towns got any better it’s that Ant got better. He is a culture changer along side the Somalian Pirate. Towns has talent. But his mindset sucks and his lack of work ethic is legendary. The dude doesn’t even get in stance half the time he plays defense. Seriously look at Towns and all of his skills and his God given athletic ability and ask yourself why isn’t he ever mentioned as a rim protector? Why isn’t he ever mentioned as someone who puts fear into people coming into the paint. The Wolves gave up on Towns ever being a good defender and big man defense is very very important. They decided they needed defense everywhere else and it was smart.

They are going to regress next year and it will all be Towns fault. They won’t even make the playoffs next year and it’s bc he’s a leader. And the wolves are paying max money to a leader who plays no defense, does no winning plays other than shooting the ball. if I ran the wolves, I would trade him away. You could get a massive haul for him atm and his stock is never going to be higher.

[SAGirl]

that's not what i got from the post. in fact, KA specifically wrote that KAT is the better player. what i got from the post was that Jakob is a better value. i think that's undebatable.

You pointed me to a missed point he made, but the entirety of his context is difficult to take seriously. It's better to pay for better talent, otherwise you will end up paying a ton for McDermott types, so the better guys get paid a premium, that is how the league is.

He is singing praises to Jakob now, but wait until he is paid market value and still can't hit FT and the Spurs are still in limbo. It's really not the money for me, at least, though I know that's something that others fixate on. Is about trying to get better, and Jakob is not someone that you hold on to dear life because you can't replace. You don't give him away without a fair return, but there are possibly upgrades to be had at that position and I want the Spurs to be looking.

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And that is without mentioning trades proposed by others like RC Drunkford who are looking for trades that improve other spots using Jakob and then replacing Jakob, who honestly Timvp premise is that center production is easier to replace, so you do that.

[TD 21]

I've said all along that I don't buy it and it's probably just draftniks putting two and two together (excepting Samanic, team has went guard/wing heavy for a while and are thin with 4/5 youth).

Probably the best/most likely course of action is to pick shot creation at 9, then presuming Williams makes it to 13/15, attempt to trade for him at that point.

Disagree on a number of points though. Center is a long term position of need and the position is and will remain valuable (Warriors are unique and R. Williams, on one leg, was the highest impact player on a Finals team), just in different ways.

I wouldn't be concerned with whether a certain type can play a major role deep in the playoffs for a franchise that seems content to be a treadmill team.

[SAGirl]

I've said all along that I don't buy it and it's probably just draftniks putting two and two together (excepting Samanic, team has went guard/wing heavy for a while and are thin with 4/5 youth).

Probably the best/most likely course of action is to pick shot creation at 9, then presuming Williams makes it to 13/15, attempt to trade for him at that point.

Disagree on a number of points though. Center is a long term position of need and the position is and will remain valuable (Warriors are unique and R. Williams, on one leg, was the highest impact player on a Finals team), just in different ways.

I wouldn't be concerned with whether a certain type can play a major role deep in the playoffs for a franchise that seems content to be a treadmill team.

I mean, the Spurs thing to do is to extend Jakob at market value and look for the spursy high character wing/guard types, very young, with a shot that still needs to develop and who we won't really be able to count on until year 3... that's kind of a given.

Maybe the surprise this season is going against their perceived trend, but your post just brought me back to Spurs Earth.

[Mr. Body]

I can also see taking a hopefully superior guard at #9 -- let's say Johnny Davis -- and assuming no trade up with the rest, going for Minott at 20 or 25. I don't think there are quick hit solutions to the PF crisis, and this is why we will see Landale and possibly Zollins there in certain sets. I do wonder at the team's interest in Liddell, but he doesn't seem like the solution there, either. A guy like LaRavia to me is more of a temporary patch on a threadbare elbow than anything.

[rjv]

You pointed me to a missed point he made, but the entirety of his context is difficult to take seriously. It's better to pay for better talent, otherwise you will end up paying a ton for McDermott types, so the better guys get paid a premium, that is how the league is.

He is singing praises to Jakob now, but wait until he is paid market value and still can't hit FT and the Spurs are still in limbo. It's really not the money for me, at least, though I know that's something that others fixate on. Is about trying to get better, and Jakob is not someone that you hold on to dear life because you can't replace. You don't give him away without a fair return, but there are possibly upgrades to be had at that position and I want the Spurs to be looking.

----------------

And that is without mentioning trades proposed by others like RC Drunkford who are looking for trades that improve other spots using Jakob and then replacing Jakob, who honestly Timvp premise is that center production is easier to replace, so you do that.

if the spurs can resign jakob and still get him at a bargain rate, i'm perfectly fine with that. if he asks for more then it would become more of an issue if he asks for an unreasonable amount. but here in ST too many posters seem to equate Jakob's value to be the equivalent to a 13th or 15th selection in this draft and i just don't get that at all. jakob has flaws but he does a lot of things very well. i'd rather keep poeltl and get a better PF than just take on any center or draft another center with just as many flaws if not more, and one that will take a couple of years to develop at that (unless, drafting such a player takes the place of the value that jakob currently affords the spurs).

[TD 21]

if the spurs can resign jakob and still get him at a bargain rate, i'm perfectly fine with that. if he asks for more then it would become more of an issue if he asks for an unreasonable amount. but here in ST too many posters seem to equate Jakob's value to be the equivalent to a 13th or 15th selection in this draft and i just don't get that at all. jakob has flaws but he does a lot of things very well. i'd rather keep poeltl and get a better PF than just take on any center or draft another center with just as many flaws if not more, and one that will take a couple of years to develop at that (unless, drafting such a player takes the place of the value that jakob currently affords the spurs).

Wrong. He'll be almost 28 when his next contract kicks in and is a high floor/low ceiling type, who lacks versatility (not a vertical spacer, terrible free throw shooter, mostly a drop/up to the level p-n-r defender).

Williams is a similar archetype, only he can do the first two things and is 6 years younger. Doesn't mean he'll necessarily be as good or better, but I like his chances of at least being close and if they can get Washington Jr. as well, they'd at least have a credible stopgap four instead of reaching on a non shooter like Sochan who can't play alongside a rim runner.

[SAGirl]

if the spurs can resign jakob and still get him at a bargain rate, i'm perfectly fine with that. if he asks for more then it would become more of an issue if he asks for an unreasonable amount. but here in ST too many posters seem to equate Jakob's value to be the equivalent to a 13th or 15th selection in this draft and i just don't get that at all. jakob has flaws but he does a lot of things very well. i'd rather keep poeltl and get a better PF than just take on any center or draft another center with just as many flaws if not more, and one that will take a couple of years to develop at that (unless, drafting such a player takes the place of the value that jakob currently affords the spurs).

Other posters have argued the PF point better than me, and look for avenues to improve there that involve trades, but overall I think Jakob signs at market value. It's what the Spurs offered White, and Murray (who was coming off an injury year, and didn't have yet the sustained production he has achieved).

Market value for him is minimum $15 mill/year... and that is his minimum. Possibly goes as high as $17-$20/yr and I am going there by the contract Adams has, who is a comparable player and signed a 2 yr/$35 mill year in 2020. I'd argue Jakob is better and needs to get the higher end there, but I am not the best cap person/trade machine person so I am open to dissenting opinions. Is he worth it? Yea, IMO specially if the Spurs are a compe ive team. If they aren't, then the team really just needs to be aware for opportunities to improve, which includes him being again in the trade market. It's precisely because of this uncertainty --the possibility the Spurs need to reset the clock-- which IMO means Jakob goes at a market value deal.

[KingKev]

Other posters have argued the PF point better than me, and look for avenues to improve there that involve trades, but overall I think Jakob signs at market value. It's what the Spurs offered White, and Murray (who was coming off an injury year, and didn't have yet the sustained production he has achieved).

Market value for him is minimum $15 mill/year... and that is his minimum. Possibly goes as high as $17-$20/yr and I am going there by the contract Adams has, who is a comparable player and signed a 2 yr/$35 mill year in 2020. I'd argue Jakob is better and needs to get the higher end there, but I am not the best cap person/trade machine person so I am open to dissenting opinions. Is he worth it? Yea, IMO specially if the Spurs are a compe ive team. If they aren't, then the team really just needs to be aware for opportunities to improve, which includes him being again in the trade market. It's precisely because of this uncertainty --the possibility the Spurs need to reset the clock-- which IMO means Jakob goes at a market value deal.

I concur. We saw a passing of the guard this last year regarding general management and I think this is how Wright will continue to operate going forward.

[SAGirl]

Also, Poeltl would almost certainly refuse a max extension. The debate isn't whether he's worth it but whether anyone could convince him to sign it. It would be a surprise if he didn't just play the market.

I have a question about this statement Chinook. I think this is tied to some obscure capology knowledge I am ignorant of, like him being eligible for a smaller extension than he is worth. Like he can get more as an UFA next season.

If I understand you right.... the chances are Jakob is going into next summer as an UFA. Honestly it makes sense to me that he does that, bc he can play the market and see where he can get more, and there is no incentive to give discounts to the Spurs, quite simply because their future is uncertain, including having to reset the clock on this version and trade what veterans they have to pick up prospects if they underachieve, and he would be one of those veterans to be on the trade market again.

[KingKev]

I have a question about this statement Chinook. I think this is tied to some obscure capology knowledge I am ignorant of, like him being eligible for a smaller extension than he is worth. Like he can get more as an UFA next season.

If I understand you right.... the chances are Jakob is going into next summer as an UFA. Honestly it makes sense to me that he does that, bc he can play the market and see where he can get more, and there is no incentive to give discounts to the Spurs, quite simply because their future is uncertain, including having to reset the clock on this version and trade what veterans they have to pick up prospects if they underachieve, and he would be one of those veterans to be on the trade market again.

His max on an extension is 4yrs 50ish this offseason.

[spurraider21]

Didn't realize Poeltl was unrestricted next summer. If they can't get an extension worked out by September I'd prolly trade him.

people were pretty mad when he signed for 3/27 or whatever it was but its turned out to be a of a deal for us.

[Robz4000]

people were pretty mad when he signed for 3/27 or whatever it was but its turned out to be a of a deal for us.

Never understood that tbh. He prolly could've gotten $30mil+ but took a minor discount to stay, albeit he forced the Spurs' hand when he said he was gonna sign an offer sheet with Atlanta.

[Mr. Body]

people were pretty mad when he signed for 3/27 or whatever it was but its turned out to be a of a deal for us.

Including timvp. Posted an article about how it was a mistake, iirc.

[KobesAchilles]

You pointed me to a missed point he made, but the entirety of his context is difficult to take seriously. It's better to pay for better talent, otherwise you will end up paying a ton for McDermott types, so the better guys get paid a premium, that is how the league is.

He is singing praises to Jakob now, but wait until he is paid market value and still can't hit FT and the Spurs are still in limbo. It's really not the money for me, at least, though I know that's something that others fixate on. Is about trying to get better, and Jakob is not someone that you hold on to dear life because you can't replace. You don't give him away without a fair return, but there are possibly upgrades to be had at that position and I want the Spurs to be looking.

----------------

And that is without mentioning trades proposed by others like RC Drunkford who are looking for trades that improve other spots using Jakob and then replacing Jakob, who honestly Timvp premise is that center production is easier to replace, so you do that.

As a franchise player or a basketball player skills wise, Towns is far above Poeltl. But for our team I would rather have Poeltl than Towns. There’s a number of reasons for it. The first is at ude. Poeltl isn’t a malcontent at all and is no longer a lazy POS. Pop got that coached out of him by not playing him or starting him. It humbled him to a degree. You can’t do that with Towns. He would whine and then ask for a trade and demand to be treated differently bc he’s a #1 pick. It’s why the Wolves have been ty with him, it’s why they brought in KG his last year to try and mold him when he was young and show him what he needed. It’s why they brought in Jimmy Butler. The whole franchise knows that Towns doesn’t put any effort into half of the floor. It’s not that he’s a bad defender or slow or incapable of it, he flat out refuses to do it.

What Towns does significantly better than Poeltl is score the basketball. He posts better and has a much much better shot. He has worked his tail off in that aspect of his game. There’s zero comparison here between the two. Poeltl has so many flaws offensively that it’s ridiculous. BUT he has learned something extremely important and id argue that if Towns would do this one thing then the Wolves would be a better team

Poeltl creates space for others like nobody else’s business. When his man clogs the paint, Poeltl will literally grab them and shove them out of the way to create space for DJ or whoever. The refs will call it maybe once a game but it changes the whole flow of the offense. Towns creates nothing for any of his teammates when he doesn’t have the ball.

The reason why the Wolves are good has way more to do with Ant than it does Towns. Towns has literally put up the same numbers for like 5 straight years. It’s not like he just upped his production. Ant plays defense. The pirate plays defense. Ant can break down defenses. Ant pushes the ball like crazy and gets the tempo up. The fact that the media chose KAT over Ant doesn’t mean to me. He is a winner and KAT is a loser. And he isn’t worth $40 million a year. He just isn’t. If I had to chooses between over paying Jak by 3 million and overpaying KAT by 20 million then I’m gonna choose Jak.

Jak also doesn’t whine about touches. He isn’t a reason why a top 5 playoff performer left the team in Jimmy Butler. Jak won’t get a coach fired 5 times. KAT thinks of himself as a guard now and just shoots jumpers ever since he won the 3 point contest. The dude also had a 4 point playoff performance not too long ago. KAT has talent but he doesn’t have the right at ude. Next year this wolves team will miss the playoffs unless Ant to shoot better by next year.

Now Vale is better than Poeltl. The Pels have a playoff team next year with a healthy Zion.

[KingKev]

Including timvp. Posted an article about how it was a mistake, iirc.

timvp just put that deal at the higher end of where he saw reasonable value at the time.

[SAGirl]

His max on an extension is 4yrs 50ish this offseason.

Then, yea I agree with Chinook, he's not signing that.

His situation is really interesting, and definitely influences what the Spurs do. I think even if he's not traded on draft night, the Spurs have to consider the possibility he leaves next season as an UFA, so drafting a center, and one that promises to be a quality one is a real possibility. Frankly not having rumors of them interviewing and working out Duren and Williams actually makes it likely they are looking at them intently.

Two things to consider here, they like the younger guys as of late, because of their higher potential which makes sense. As good as Williams is now, Duren at 18, may even be growing still (those growth plates!). Him keeping the interest secret and keeping mum on workouts is already a good sign of character right? Brown singing him praises. Do they risk him? He won't be there at 20. If they want him (or Williams) they have to take him at 9.