Fetterman has a degree from Harvard dip . If you have ever seen a Harvard class, they're ing difficult as .Oz was not a great candidate.
But we are talking about a guy in Fetterman that appears to be mentally incapacitated, now heading to the US senate.
You guys love to slam Walker for being a dumb jock with a luke warm IQ, but are perfectly ok with Sloth from the Goonies, aka Fetterman, because he is on the left.
U mad.Oz was not a great candidate.
But we are talking about a guy in Fetterman that appears to be mentally incapacitated, now heading to the US senate.
You guys love to slam Walker for being a dumb jock with a luke warm IQ, but are perfectly ok with Sloth from the Goonies, aka Fetterman, because he is on the left.
**Reposting because I'm not gonna let my essay wallow at the bottom of the page**
For me, I think the most surprising thing about these elections was how well Dems performed in state legislature races. These have historically been our weak point and the performance was massive
-Dems held all of the state legislature chambers they controlled (I think that's the only time a party has done that in a midterm election when their party is in the White House)
-prevented a super majority in Wisconsin so Evers still has veto power (doesn't seem like much but that required winning Trump districts given how hyper gerrymandered Wisconsin's map is)
-prevented a super majority in North Carolina so Cooper still has veto power (again doesn't sound like much, but the NC GOP was expecting to have a super majority in both houses)
-took the Minnesota state senate (this is huge because it gives them a trifecta to legalize marijuana and make the Minnesota legalize weed party irrelevant)
-won the PA state house outright
-picked up seats in the PA state senate (would have won the PA state senate if more state senate districts were up this year)
-won BOTH the state house and state senate in Michigan (this is the biggest one...they can now repeal right to work, pass a bunch of election laws to improve turnout in Detroit, join the NPVIC, pass a $15 min wage, etc.)
-came within a seat of tying in the New Hampshire state house
-picked up seats in the GA state leg despite how well Kemp did statewide
-still have an outside chance of tying or winning one or both chambers of the AZ state leg (if/when they get a trifecta in AZ, the Dems are gonna go sicko mode)
Was ceding all of this state level control to the Democrats REALLY worth it just so the GOP could overturn Roe and "save" a bunch of (predominantly black) fetuses they won't give a about after they're born
Sadly the math for a house majority isn't there for Dems.
Here's how I'd rate the races where I'm not 90+% sure if the winner yet:
AZ-01: toss-up/tilt D
AZ-06: likely R
WA-03: lean D
CO-03: likely R
CA-03: likely R
CA-22: toss-up
CA-27: toss-up/tilt R
CA-41: tilt R
CA-45: lean R
The GOP has 213 seats without these. I'm not 90+% sure they'll win CO-03, CA-03, and AZ-06 but I'm probably 75+% sure, that gets them to 216. Seats left:
AZ-01: toss-up/tilt D
WA-03: lean D
CA-22: toss-up
CA-27: toss-up/tilt R
CA-41: tilt R
CA-45: lean R
My best guess as to what happens:
-Dems win AZ-01 and WA-03
-Steel holds her seat (CA-45 stays red)
-Calvert barely loses his seat (CA-41 goes blue; surprising but my read there is that Calvert did the same thing that Chabot and Schweikert did getting put in a bluer district and not even pretending to moderate themselves)
At that point the GOP has 217 seats and the Dems have 216. They'd need to beat both Valadao and Garcia to win, and I think that's unlikely.
End result: The GOP wins a house majority, but by the skin of its teeth, and relying a lot on Rs in NY/CA districts that Biden won by 10+% who are never going to go along with McCarthy bringing a sledgehammer to the debt ceiling fight.
Yeah but have you ever tried to run a football against the Bama defense?
Yeah, didn't think so
I'd seriously vote for OJ Simpson over Herschel Walker.
Both of them tried to murder their wife, but OJ was actually competent enough to get the job done.
If I have to choose between two murderous psychopaths, I want a US senator who's competent enough to murder his wife and get away with it.
Imagine unhiding a post from someone you're "ignoring" when they're not even replying to you.You are in here quite often so I would bet you click on all of them
Ok, now back on the ignore list you go
Don't know why these guys try to pretend it's about anything but the (R). They're voting for Walker because he can be relied upon to fall in line with establishment Republicans on all of their votes. Frankly if he was running as a Dem most Dems would do the same thing. If they voted at all.
I’m hoping Dems never run a candidate as brain dead as Walker no matter how he votes
.
Last edited by Will Hunting; 11-12-2022 at 12:14 PM.
Imagine unhiding a post from someone you're "ignoring" when they're not even replying to you.
A thug like Walker couldn't win a Democratic senate primary.
Long answer but I think it's pretty clear why once you think about it.
25+ years of Fox News and right wing AM radio has turned modern day conservatism in America into a contest of who can act like the biggest parody level re and trigger the libs. This started way before Trump and it's going to keep happening after Trump's fatass is dead. It's not about governance anymore for the GOP. For awhile it was about at least pretending to be interested in governing so the GOP could hold onto suburban voters, now it's a literal contest of who can demonstrate the strongest disinterest in governing.
And that's why Republicans can't just admit they think Herschel Walker is a severely flawed and troubled person who they're holding their nose and voting for just because he's an R - because it wouldn't be true.
Herschel being a parody level hypocrite who talks about black men needing to be better fathers while he's a deadbeat dad who pays for his girlfriends to get abortions, makes up about working in law enforcement when all he has is an honorary badge that 8 year olds get going on a field trip to the police station, etc. is precisely what people like Chris, Derptacular, Millenniall_Messiah, Dirk's Finale, etc. like about Herschel Walker. That's why they don't just admit they're voting for him despite all of his flaws - it's because they don't view those things as flaws. They view those things as characteristics that make Herschel a real conservative patriot.
It's the same reason why candidates like Herschel, JR Majewski, Doug Mastriano, Kari Lake, etc. win primaries by saying the most insanely re ed imaginable. It's what conservatives want now.
Lol at the righties whining about mentally incapable candidates when they backed literal re s like Trump and CTE brain damaged candidates like Walker
Fetterman wasn't even the most incapacitated statewide candidate in Pennsylvania this year
For governor, the PA GOP nominated a Christian nationalist bible thumping sack (Mastriano) who thought that by going on a "campaign fast" it would make god intervene and ensure he won the race for governor.
Mastriano is still retweeting stuff about how people need to go out and vote for Mastriano as recently as this morning. I'm not joking...he's so ing stupid that he doesn't understand the election is over and that you can't go vote for Mastriano anymore
Yeah it's Trumps all the way down in the GOP now. Trump and those like him are what right wing radio has been priming its audience to want since the mid 90s. It's hilarious hearing Glen Beck start crying about his outrage of the day in the morning, then Rush Limbaugh would throw an anger fit on the same outrage of the day topic in the lunchtime time slot, then Hannity starts whining about the same outrage of the day topic in the early afternoon, back to back to back beating the drum to evoke emotional responses from their listeners. At least that fat tub of Limbaugh is in a better place now.
It's like this mother er wants people to think he's a serial killer
The GOP will lose a few seats in NY and CA but it will be more than made up by seats won back in the upper Midwest if Trump is on the ballot.
Also don't forget that the NC Supreme Court got flipped like we expected, and one of their first measures next year will be to redraw the map, probably picking up 3-4 seats in the process (Bo Hines lost unexpectedly, and they'll also crack the Winston-Salem and Greensboro blue seats big time).
If we have a recession by 2024 if Trump/DeSantis is on the ballot I fully expect to take back senate seats in not just WV, MT, OH but also WI, MI, AZ, NV and others are in play. VA in play in it's Youngkin vs. Kaine. NJ in play depending on who the candidates are. PA... who knows. Casey is stronger than Fetterman but we'll have to see. MN... Klobuchar likely to overperform Biden so likely not. But we'll see. Plenty of room for a very solid Senate majority but it will be hard to get to 60.
GOP will be playing defense in zero senate seats in '24 assuming Ted Cruz retires which all signs point to.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 11-12-2022 at 01:51 PM.
The GOP would lose NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, CA-45, CA-41, CA-22 and CA-27 with Trump on the ballot. That's 9 seats before you consider the seats Dems would gain in AZ, CO, OR and other anti-Trump states.
Name the upper Midwest seats that Dem in bents would lose with Trump on the ballot.
The fact you keep making predictions after hater-level failures is just adorable.
Holy your mom must have drank a lot when she was pregnant with you.
When was the last time we even had a compe ive senate race in New Jersey?
First of all, you counted 8 seats in NY and CA, not 9.
Colorado? I don't believe Boebert underperforms 2022 in 2024 if Trump's on the ballot. Trumpian district, in fact, despite a blue state. O'Dea underperformed both Trump and Cory Gardner (either time).
Oregon? There's only one seat there, OR-05, and we'll just have to see how good the new in bent will be; but it's hardly a blue seat.
AZ? The only one you might consider is Schweikert, assuming he wins this time, but I don't see him losing and underperforming in a presidential year.
I don't see both NY-03 and NY-04 flipping back; probably one of them, but the area has just gotten more conservative recently. The Hudson Valley seats without Zeldin on the ballot, probably. Valadao is toast and probably a couple others.
The Akron/Canton seat would flip back and if they get someone competent against Marcy Kaptur that is a Trump + seat and a red trending area. Now that the Cincinnati seat has a Democrat in bent, I don't see that one flipping back. For Michigan, same applies to the West Michigan Democrat seat, now that Meijer is out like Chabot it's not flipping back red. But unlike MI-03, MI-07 and MI-08 are trending redder and will flip. They actually had strong candidates for those two this year but the blue wave hit Michigan pretty hard to their demise.
NC will gain 3-4 GOP seats by redistricting alone.
A couple Democrat in bents in South Florida, including Wasserman, will be tested in '24. Not sure they'll actually flip but they are swinging hard to the right.
IN-01 could very well flip in '24 with a better national environment, no abortion on the ballot nationally and in many states etc.
Illinois could very well have 2-3 flips with a better national environment. Same for Pennsylvania, especially in NE PA.
If Youngkin wins or comes close in the Senate and the GOP performs better in VA in the general election year 2024, they could flip the Spanberger seat.
If Trump was on the ballot, Poliquin likely flips ME-02 instead of Golden winning again.
The redder of the two New Hampshire seats should flip, especially without a (D) senate in bent on the ballot.
The Appalachian Maryland seat (Trone) almost flipped this week and should flip with Trump on the ballot, even if MD is a safe blue state as a whole.
NM will almost certainly get 1-2 flips (Harrell lost this time). TX rio grande valley could get 1-2 flips. Nevada could get 1-3 flips depending on how Lombardo does and the national environment.
Oh and there's one other possible trinket - that SCOTUS could throw out the VRA applying to congressional seats as a whole, which means that states like LA, MS, AL, GA, SC lose their only Democrat in bent.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 11-12-2022 at 02:07 PM.
For me, I think the most surprising thing about these elections was how well Dems performed in state legislature races. These have historically been our weak point and the performance was massive
-Dems held all of the state legislature chambers they controlled (I think that's the only time a party has done that in a midterm election when their party is in the White House)
-prevented a super majority in Wisconsin so Evers still has veto power (doesn't seem like much but that required winning Trump districts given how hyper gerrymandered Wisconsin's map is)
-prevented a super majority in North Carolina so Cooper still has veto power (again doesn't sound like much, but the NC GOP was expecting to have a super majority in both houses)
-took the Minnesota state senate (this is huge because it gives them a trifecta to legalize marijuana and make the Minnesota legalize weed party irrelevant)
-won the PA state house outright
-picked up seats in the PA state senate (would have won the PA state senate if more state senate districts were up this year)
-won BOTH the state house and state senate in Michigan (this is the biggest one...they can now repeal right to work, pass a bunch of election laws to improve turnout in Detroit, join the NPVIC, pass a $15 min wage, etc.)
-came within a seat of tying in the New Hampshire state house
-picked up seats in the GA state leg despite how well Kemp did statewide
-still have an outside chance of tying or winning one or both chambers of the AZ state leg (if/when they get a trifecta in AZ, the Dems are gonna go sicko mode)
Was ceding all of this state level control to the Democrats REALLY worth it just so the GOP could overturn Roe and "save" a bunch of (predominantly black) fetuses they won't give a about after they're born
^ ing nailed it!
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