Oz was a huckster who pushed all kinds of pseudoscience on his show from easy weight loss pills to homeopathy to a never ending parade of worthless snake oil supplements that he'd always call miracle cures for everything. And his debate performance was horrific just based on his contention that abortion was between a woman and her local political leaders.
He was a goofy holistic doctor and a mediocre celebrity at that. It's not like they're running prime Clint Eastwood or Ronald Reagan out there. But Dr. Oz, for all his faults, should have still beaten Fetterbrain.
Conor Lamb would have beaten Dr. Oz by similar margin Shapiro beat Mastriano. Also, Lamb is young and healthy and would be a tough out going forward. At least the GOP has a nice juicy target in PA in 2028 if they find an actually experienced quality candidate.
Oz was a dangerous carnival huckster and it would have been a disaster letting a fraud like that write healthcare law. Plus he was a carpetbagger. Just a supremely ty senate candidate who only got as close as he did because of Fetterman's stroke.
Mike Lindell is the real huckster... lol I rest my case.
Oz being Muslim and Turkish hurt him more than him being a quack or even a carpetbagger. The race was lost outside of Philly. Look at all that low turnout in those blue left arrow counties on the trend map. Those are Trump 2016/McCormick 2022 (primary) voters that didn't turn out for Oz or Mastriano. Just very low GOP turnout outside of the Philly suburbs which were already largely trending a bit blue.
McCormick would have beaten Fettermoron
Cocaine Mitch spent money on Murkowski because if he didn’t and she still won, she’d have no reason to still caucus with the GOP. Alaska is trending blue and Murkowski relies on Dem voters to win, if the NRSC wasn’t helping her she’d be an independent who caucuses with the Dems.
McConnell also spent a lot on Herschel and Oz. He abandoned AZ because Masters focus grouped laughably badly and McConnell correctly knew he couldn’t win.
Also this new thing I’ve heard right wing commentators do where they blame McConnell for Herschel, Laxalt, etc. not having as much money as their opponent is bull . Candidates are responsible for fundraising, and the GOP’s senate candidates were terrible at fundraising this year such that they were relying on McConnell to raise money for them.
When Herschel came out for team werewolf, who could blame Count McConnell for slinking back into his coffin, tbh?
I still think Laxalt will beat out Rosen. Rosen is the weaker of the two in bents and wasn't expected to win but only won because of blue wave '18, while CCM was Harry Reid's hand-selected successor.
The rest of the 2022 senate losers and their ilk are goners. Laxalt is a strong candidate and NOT alt right, should not be lumped in with Walker/Masters/Oz... just needs to get the funding right and he'll beat Rosen by around 4-5%.
Rosen is definitely beatable with the right candidate and the right environment, but Laxalt isn't a good candidate at all.
Take a look at this Twitter thread. For context, Jon Ralston is the GOAT at Nevada election forecasting at this point. His final article before the election was more or less "My vibes say that CCM wins because Adam Laxalt is a terrible candidate and I'm ignoring EV data that says otherwise, but the data I'm ignoring for the senate race does actually show that Lombardo beats Sisolak. No I will not elaborate further as to why I'm using data for one prediction and ignoring it for the other." Everyone laughed at him but his prediction was pretty much dead on.
Clark County turnout was as bad as the EV data showed, but CCM won despite that because of how bad Laxalt did with Clark/Washoe independents. 69% of registered Rs voted statewide vs. only 60% of registered Ds. If Laxalt can't win with that much of a turnout disparity, then he's not going to win in a presidential year when Hispanic turnout in Clark (and these aren't RGV or South Florida Hispanics, these are pro-choice Hispanics who are more secular and are partisan D votes when they show up) will be much higher.
The fact Laxalt only raised $18 million vs. CCM's $66 million isn't McConnell's fault either; it just means Laxalt sucks at fundraising. If you're a purple state senate candidate fundraising isn't very hard. Laxalt is just a trust fund baby who's never had to work for anything in his life so he expected the fundraising to be done for him.
This CCM ad does a pretty good job at exposing Laxalt's flaws:
Also Rosen isn't as good of a candidate as CCM but she's definitely not a lightweight at all.
Beating er by 5% was no easy feat even in a wave year for Dems. er survived 2012, which was an even bigger wave election for Democrats & a year when Obama won his state by 7%. There's probably only 2 Republicans in Nevada capable of getting that many Obama ticket splitters, and the other one has said he's never running for senate. er was a strong in bent especially because he knew not to take a re ed stance on abortion in one of the most pro-life states in the country no matter how much heat he got from the right on it. Rosen had to beat him on local issues.
Laxalt meanwhile having such a re ed stance on abortion is one of the reasons why he's a bad candidate in Nevada. He signed Nevada onto multiple anti-abortion lawsuits as AG despite Sandoval (the wildly popular pro-choice Republican ex-governor in Nevada) being against it. If not for his weak relationship with Sandoval, he could have probably gotten Sandoval to endorse + campaign for him, and that would have easily been enough to put him over the top.
"Desantis Calls Trump 'A Moron Who Has No Business Running For President,' Former Staffers Say: Report"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...d=winp2fpswipe
lmao
10K+ covid deaths in FL,
Desantis pandering to the anti-vaxxers,
trying to criminalize vaccine operators
DeSantis’s request for COVID vaccine probe denounced by health experts
DeSantis’s pe ion for a grand jury investigation was approved by the Florida Supreme Court on Thursday,
clearing the way for what his office described as
a probe into “wrongdoing committed against Floridians related to the COVID-19 vaccine.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3786927-desantiss-request-for-covid-vaccine-probe-denounced-by-health-experts
FL, egregious Repug hole, peopled by bags
We'll see. Sheriff Lombardo being in may make a big difference and perhaps the NV GOP can take a few lessons in ballot harvesting, seems more likely than not. Laxalt got the margins he needed in Clark and Washoe but underperformed big time in the rural counties. Another example of needing to juice up the GOP early vote and vote by mail because there are a lot of senior citizens there that won't go vote on EDay. It's also a large reason why the GOP has consistently underperformed in polls in Nevada. What the GOP has in numbers in Nevada they lack in logistics in actually getting people to vote, whether it's in person early or by mail or both, to shorten the lines and make it easier for the rest to vote on EDay. I'm confident there's enough numbers for the GOP to pull very close or even roughly even in Clark County if they were to encourage the GOP to vote early and by mail. It's demographically and ideologically fairly similar to Miami except a lot less black.
Nevada is a pro-choice relatively libertarian agnostic and secular state, so your saying it's one of the more pro-life states doesn't make sense.
Also, Arizona is off to the right start already in the 2024 senate race by making Sheriff Mark Lamb the frontrunner for that seat already and not someone like Lake, Brnovich, or Masters. Law enforcement / military type of non-extremist but solid conservatives do well especially in the sun belt. Look at Lombardo, McCain, etc.
"it seems more likely than not because I say so"
You're just speaking in conclusory generalities that aren't backed up by the data. GOP turnout was 10% higher than Dem turnout in Nevada this year; this wasn't an issue of GOP "ballot harvesting." They got the turnout they needed, Laxalt just got slaughtered with independents.
In a neutral environment Dem turnout will be a lot better and the GOP would do even worse; not sure what "sheriff Lombardo" (really gay and corny to call him sheriff tbh) is going to do for the 2024 senate race but he isn't gonna be on the ballot like he was this year so your logic is flawed.
comparing Clark County to Miami-Dade.
Clark County has exponentially more union membership than M-D has, the Hispanics in Clark County are a lot more liberal and secular than the right wing filth Fidel Castro used M-D county as a trash can to offload into.
There are basically no comparisons between the two beyond the fact they both have a lot of Hispanics, but Mexicans in LV aren't remotely the same as Cubans/Venezuelans in M-D.
pro-life was a typo; the context makes it pretty clear I meant to say pro-choice. My entire post was about how Laxalt was a re on abortion which is why he was a bad candidate in Nevada.
This is the problem with the "non-extremist" Republicans. The candidates you think are mainstream and very electable are bat crazy.
You unironically think this knuckle would be a good senate candidate in Arizona
Well he's a police chief so it's not like he has zero experience with government like Lake and Masters did. And Lombardo is an ex police chief too so that's why I called him Sheriff. It's not gay it's just the facts of life. As long as he doesn't run as radical of a campaign on issues like abortion like Masters and even Laxalt did he should be fine. Look at JD Vance in Ohio, went a bit towards the center after Tim Ryan did the same, and it worked out well for Vance. Despite Vance having a history that would make people think he's in bed with QAnon. Mandel had a similar history but got s acked in 2018 and rightfully people got rid of him in the primary after him being the frontrunner again. IMO Tim Ryan would have defeated Mandel just as Brown did.
The only way an AZ Republican is going to get on the ballot in the first place is to go at least mostly re in the primary.
Nah. Karrin Taylor Robson got in the race like a week before the August 2nd primary was held and she damn near beat out Lake with minimal endorsements. Her top endorsement was Mike ing Pence. That just goes to show you that normies still like socially moderate, fiscally conservative candidates that aren't Lake, Trump, or Masters types.
JD Vance is an Ivy League educated never-Trumper who LARPed as a MAGA Republican to win a primary.
Mark Lamb is uneducated trailer trash who genuinely thinks Hillary Clinton was responsible for January 6th.
This comparison is re ed, even by your standards.
By January 2022, Robson had several million in the bank and was largely viewed as the establishment choice in the race (and she got all of the establishment support). She also had unlimited amounts of money due to her billionaire husband. It's not even possible to "get in the race" a week before the primary, there's signature gathering requirements that you need to get on the ballot.
She was endorsed by the two most recent Arizona governors; Lake was endorsed by Trump and several crazy people
jesus, that list of people endorsing Lake
Okay, but KTR wasn't even on the radar / on the news and not polling anything significant until a couple weeks before the primary election. All the polls were Lake +30 or better until Pence, Ducey and others held a last ditch rally for Robson warning that Lake was too extreme and too much of a conspiracy theorist to be electable. Then Lake plummeted in the polls to near even and it looked for a while on August 3-4 as if Robson was actually going to win.
If the GOP (outside of idiots like Trump and the pillow guy) pushed for KTR well in advance, well in advance of early and mail in voting start dates, KTR should have easily beaten Lake, by at least 10 percent. Unlike a state like Ohio, Arizona has far more normie GOP types than "Ultra MAGA" types. Even the old boomer military population which is big in AZ loved McCain/Ducey but doesn't like candidates like Lake/Masters. The main thing Ducey did wrong was promoting unelectable McSally... not once, but twice.
Poll from May 2022 where Robson is trailing by only 2% with >35% of all voters still undecided:
https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-...almon-trailing
Robson was considered the other frontrunner in the race for months prior to the primary. Try all you want to revise history and pretend that Robson was some underfunded upstart candidate who emerged at the last minute, it's simply not true.
Ducey endorsed Robson a full month before the primary, and the whole point of doing it when he did was so people would remember it (e.g., Clyburn endorsing Biden right before the SC primary). The endorsement was timed to have maximum effect.
Every Arizona GOP state senator (even the one in a district Biden won) voted in favor of the cyber ninja stop the steal audit last year. The head of the Arizona GOP believes in chemtrail conspiracy theories. Your belief that the Arizona GOP has an extremely moderate base isn't rooted in reality. McCain's Arizona GOP is dead and it's not coming back; Kelli Ward's Arizona GOP is here to stay.
You're really in denial about belonging to a party of re s that would prefer Kari Lake over Taylor Robson (heck, you think Mark Lamb would be a good senate candidate, so you're a lot more similar to the Lake supporting re s than you even realize).
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