Spurs Youth Bias in the Draft

[Mr. Body]

Black’s stepfather is a hugely successful Texas HS basketball coach (who won like 4 state les in a row) and he is from San Antonio.

Cool to know. Aside from Vic, Anthony Black is 100% my pick. I'd love having multi-dimensional disruptive guys who really read the game well -- if they have flaws to work on -- who are young, have high motors, and are just gamers in Black and Sochan. They could be a menace together and slot in at a range of positions making roster construction very flexible.

[KingKev]

Could the Patty Coffee Gang have helped Primo?

Not trolling. Just wondering if having some peers to rap with on a regular basis could have helped?

Or was the flashing too deep seated, wasn't going to be conversed with any of the Coffee Gang.

Barista: Hey Patty, my sincere apologies but we have run out of stir sticks

Primo: I got yall

[JeffDuncan]

ESPN shows Anthony Black as being from, wait for it, Duncanville. Hm

[rjv]

I think the Spurs tend towards youthful picks, but that’s pretty much the norm. It also helps me to sleep at night, knowing we won’t pick AND keep either of the 20 YO Thompson twins.

hopefully we don't have to find out what the spurs think of the thompsons.

[rankingtear]

Has anyone noticed how the last two years the Spurs took the youngest (or almost youngest) available player at their spot in the 1st Round of the draft?

The Spurs took Josh Primo at #12 in 2021. He was literally the youngest player taken in the 1st Round.

The Spurs took Jeremy Sochan at #9 in 2022. Of the 22 1st Round picks available only 4 were younger than Sochan.

In other words, of the 41 1st Round picks available when the Spurs picked those two, only 4 of those 41 were younger than the players the Spurs chose. (Those younger players were all in the 2022 Draft, Ousmane Dieng (one day younger than Sochan) at 11, Jalen Duren at 13, AJ Griffin at 16 and Nikola Jovic at 27.)

Drilling down a little deeper, the Spurs picked again at 20 in the 2022 1st Round and took Malaki Branham. He was the youngest of the 11 remaining 1st Round picks taken in the draft (except for Nikola Jovic, by 20 days, taken at 27).

The Spurs picked again at 25 and took Blake Wesley. He was the youngest of the 6 remaining 1st Round picks taken in the draft (except again for Jovic taken at 27).

If you add those two results in, for the Spurs’ 4 1st Round picks over the last two years, of the 58 available players when the Spurs picked, only 6 (counting Jovic three times) of those 58 were younger than the player the Spurs actually chose. It bears repeating -- of the 58 available players when the Spurs picked, only 6 of those 58 were younger than the player the Spurs actually chose. That’s a pretty striking number – 6 in 58. It surprised me.

Does this show a strategy (or at least a bias) or is this just a statistical aberration? Small sample size, for example.

If it’s an actual bias, does it lead to reaches? Certainly that can be argued in the case of Primo.

More to the point, does this give us a clue about the Spurs potential choices in the upcoming draft? If the trend continues, it may have implications for the next draft in regard to specific players some of us here are interested in. Some who otherwise seem like perfect fits may be more (or less) likely to be chosen. The ages of those next draftees are out there.

(I think my research is correct, I tried at least to double check, but even assuming some mistakes the overall picture seems pretty clear.)

Standing reach for smaller players, Primo, Wesley and Branham are all 8'6.5 at the combine.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Could Anthony Black be a PG? Some of the scouting reports I've seen on him have suggested as much.

[mo7888]

Good analysis. I think there are other factors or tendencies in their draft choices, at least post Luka when Brian seemingly took more control. I do think Brian prefers players come from a stable family, appear happy and cordial, smile often, and still have some skills and show potential.

To me, it’s a lot of filters in their player search, so to speak. That’s why I think they’ll go for Anthony Black if we are outside the top 2 and he’s still available. But I’m still learning about some of these other players so obviously a lot can change and there’s more to consider.

I like Black but I think his ceiling in the draft is barely inside the top 10..

[mo7888]

Could Anthony Black be a PG? Some of the scouting reports I've seen on him have suggested as much.

Yep...that's what he'll be ..

[The Truth #6]

I like Black but I think his ceiling in the draft is barely inside the top 10..

Very possible. I’m just expecting the Spurs to reach if other more talented players don’t meet all their criteria. But this is just me guessing.

[mo7888]

Very possible. I’m just expecting the Spurs to reach if other more talented players don’t meet all their criteria. But this is just me guessing.

It's possible but, I think we'd trade back and get him picking up extra assets if we're that high on him..

[Russ]

If we were out to just pick the youngest player available, they would have drafted Duren at 9.

It's just a bias not a rigid explanation of every pick. The bias emerges over a larger number of picks.

I think the Spurs tend towards youthful picks, but that’s pretty much the norm. It also helps me to sleep at night, knowing we won’t pick AND keep either of the 20 YO Thompson twins.

Youthful picks may be the norm, but if so, other teams should also be subject to that norm.

A norm that governs all teams can't explain why the Spurs are such an outlier -- of the 58 available players when the Spurs picked, only 6 of those 58 were younger than the player the Spurs actually chose. The other 29 teams in the league were very involved in that outcome.

[stnick2261]

Teams that are competing for a championship most likely lean towards older draft picks who can contribute immediately. Teams that are tanking tend to lean towards "unproven, but loaded with potential" young prospects. It just so happens that tanking teams also draft earlier so younger players get drafted earlier.