The Spurs' Draft Going Forward: Theory and Practice

[Mr. Body]

With our lottery position beginning to firm and a year nearly over of pain but some promise, I thought to put some thoughts together on this draft and those to come, along with the roster. These are intended as meta-level thoughts, not on a 'what specific player should we pick' level.

There are three major problems the team faces in its rebuild toward relevance. These overlap a bit, and these are generally good problems to have, but mark some minefields:

1. Handling player salaries
2. Player development
3. Too many draft picks?

Back in the day, there was discussion about whether the Spurs might be more interested in early second round picks rather than late first round picks. Reason why? With international players in that era often requiring buyouts, the SRP lack of salary structure gave more room to work with.

We often get caught up in acquiring players but not in how much they cost.

The problem with rookie salaries. A hidden thing that kills a lot of struggling and bad franchises is how much top draft picks cost. Here is a rundown of how much each pick generally costs once they are signed. You can immediately see how a whiff on a high pick starts screwing a team pretty quickly. Add another couple of non-top pick stars and you're in a heap of trouble. Houston already pay Jalen Green and Jabari Smith, Jr., nearly $9,000,000 a year. Soon they'll need to decide whether to pay out their next contracts. (Sengun, at pick 16, makes a third of that.)

We saw how Phoenix struggled with paying Deandre Ayton what he was 'due' as a #1 pick. It's hard to say he's worth the chunk of the cap he receives. Also wonder if drafting a center that high makes sense at all.

Off-the-wall query: I kinda wonder if the Spurs are going to take their 12%-14% chance at Wemby/Henderson and, failing to get them, would actually be happier drafting at 5-7 than 3-4. For this theory to be true, they would have to feel confident they can get one of their Tier 2 guys and won't be on the hook for as much seasonally for them.

Managing salaries overall. There's been talk about how good Derrick White is (in the WSJ?) and how Poeltl is turning out for the Raptors. Inevitably, there's going to be grief that we gave up on these players. The frustration is fair, but I think misses the point of the trades wasn't only to gain future assets for these players, but to get off their salaries. White makes something like $17.5 million a year. Poeltl will make over $20 million.

Those are fine for contending teams, but costly for players that don't enable a struggling team to win. Again, like the cost of rookie wages, these are things the front office really seems to care about in detail.

I'd say it's open whether Keldon will be moved, and I think so. He's not quite on the same development curve and doesn't appear to be a first/leader guy, although he would be killer on a team like Denver or Boston, etc., where he could feast on the gravity of other players. I think the Spurs understand this; their philosophy seems to get these guys paid, and be overjoyed when someone else is paying them.

Too many puppies? A major issue coming up is who of these bustling little creatures to feed. Already we saw it in a win against Indiana -- Tre and Vassell coming back causes immediate issues with who gets the ball, where players are expecting shots, how they fit in. After an awful 2021 draft, with Primo nor Wieskamp even on the team, they seemed to have three promising rooks in Sochan, Branham, and Wesley this year. Then they signed undrafted Dominic Barlow and signed Philly's castoff Charles Bassey. All five players look pretty good!

And then we have three draft picks this year, and next year they may have five!!

This is clearly a problem, albeit a good problem to have. One, I might mention, OKC is facing. They were gifted a lot of picks by trades that fell into their lap, have loads of picks upcoming, and a lot of young players already. They burned three FRPs just to get Ousmane Dieng alone.

When mismanaged, these picks appear to lead to an unproductive churn. The Thunder are barely better than they were last year. Granted, they've been without their top pick from this draft, but even the absurd FT advantages their one superior player in SGA receives cannot push them into the playoffs. They will have to decide about players like Pokushevski and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Guys who -- okay, Pokushevski kind of sucks, but JRE seems like one of those workmanlike guys who can be in the league for a while.

While I wouldn't resist trading the Spurs' cache of picks for the Thunders', I truly don't know what they're going to do. Packaging players and picks for a star is an obvious strategy, but does Presti have the guts to pull the trigger? Picking in the draft is fairly easy, building a team is hard.

Strategies with too many picks: What are different approaches to handling gobs of picks? Well...

1. Respect the churn. Draft players, see how they work, draft other players, get rid of the first players. This seems... okay? Obviously you want to move on from players who aren't working out, but you don't want to do this because you don't have room for decent players.
2. Consolidate picks. This seems harder than you'd think, but you can package picks and move up. In fact, this may become easier now that fewer teams are controlling more picks.
3. Trade picks for players. Not even the star player, but the near-star, a Mikel Bridges type who can cement a good, young team. But then you'd have to change from a fancy-pants drafter into an actual team builder.
4. Start picking for need. Possibly an unintentional result of logjams at guard or suchlike, you start drafting for positions of need. For example, the Spurs drafting purely wings this draft because they only have Keita Bates-Diop.
5. Kick picks down the road. To me a great idea, even for surplus FRPs. If you have players coming along, you don't want to take too many swings to pile new guys on top of them. If the Spurs become a playoff team in three to five years, for example, then getting more picks along to help out is a massive boost. Adding talent to near-contending teams is remarkably hard.

The Spurs' current surplus dudes: By now it feels like we're seeing the near future of the roster. Putting Keldon and Devin aside, and Graham is someone who is fitting in, the near bit is Sochan, Branham, Wesley, Bassey, and possibly Barlow, plus the new rook(s). See what they can do. Dougie, who knows. But Langford and Roby are likely gone. What is important is to retain a veteran host to help out.

tl/dr: we have to consider salary in the Tetris-game of assembling a near-contender, and this plays a role in our drafts, and having too many picks needs to be addressed because it's a powerful, but easily squandered position.

[heyheymymy]

Great point how the same grim market outlook that prob cost SA FRPs this deadline may then boost SAs chances at a pick bundle trade pack on the draft night. Who else has the assets? Spurs could very well tilt the leverage back in their favor?

Would rather load up with players from picks vs. trading picks for players to get a mid-tier established value contributor/ near star like a Bridges. SA has already shed established guys like JR and Poeltl so I don't see them going back that route unless they just need some meat on the bones experience wise to balance off all the newer 1-3 year guys. You need *some* established guys to keep the play tight enough to positively develop new kids. SA has been getting results with 1-3 year new kids so far, touches = results enough for me to say let's keep trying that instead imo.

[The Truth #6]

Nice work.

[cjw]

The rookie scale thing is real - especially in year four. The fifteenth pick makes half of what the fifth pick does.

Unless they have a must-draft grade in someone outside of the top two, I’d be perfectly happy trading back and keeping flexibility. They already have significant draft capital, but that’s not all that can be obtained trading back. Top two this year, and you obviously stay put.

Punting picks down the road has some risk, but also avoids the salary / roster spots and has massive upside if a team you trade with ends up stinking. If you can turn a late lottery pick into a pick in the 20s and a future first? You have to consider it.

[JuneJive]

Good stuff.

[tonight...you]

Wow. Great post OP. Very thoughtful and insightful.

[scott]

Excellent ST 20th Anniversary Post

[intlspurshk]

Once Spurs drafts it’s cornerstone player, it can trade some picks plus existing player to get the second star like Lamello Ball or Scottie Banes or whoever not happy with his current team. Spurs can then sign the 3rd star in FA market to form the core big 3.

[CGD]

Good post.

Re draft: for the late picks, it’s the churn and turn game for the foreseeable future + more Kennedy Chandler type trades to kick the can down the road and improve the quality of later picks. On the decent picks, you gotta trust the quality of the spurs team.

Current players: Keldon is on the clock; his deal feels designed to be traded. Question soon will be what comes of Devon.

[scott]

Looking more and more like trading out of pick 3-5 might be a viable option. Maybe someone emerges during March Madness to change that, but I'm not even feeling that excited about anyone after Wemby.

[CGD]

Looking more and more like trading out of pick 3-5 might be a viable option. Maybe someone emerges during March Madness to change that, but I'm not even feeling that excited about anyone after Wemby.

Yeah, right now it feels like the 3rd pick is the tiest pick to have if 3-7 are all at the same level.

[BackHome]

Yea will see if any new players jump out during playoffs but not really excited about anyone in the 3 to 6 range. I wood not mind trading back if we could pick up Black or Wallace or and grab another late mid first.

For other pick would look at Bilal Coulibaly SG, Azuolas Tubelis PF, Leonard Miller SF, Jordan Hawkins SG

[exstatic]

Once Spurs drafts it’s cornerstone player, it can trade some picks plus existing player to get the second star like Lamello Ball or Scottie Banes or whoever not happy with his current team. Spurs can then sign the 3rd star in FA market to form the core big 3.

LaMelo Ball is a clown, and his family is a circus.

[BackHome]

Yeah Spurs are not building through free agency - Maybe if we get Wimb. or Scoot we could try adding pieces in two years but if we do not land them we going to need to tank easily two more years to add cornerstone players. Our turn around is not going to be easy or painless

[Stump]

Yeah, right now it feels like the 3rd pick is the tiest pick to have if 3-7 are all at the same level.

I get that you have to pay more money with the 3rd pick, but you still get to scout and interview all five of those guys at that tier and decide which one is most likely to develop into a leader and All-Star. If you're a competent organization, it's worth the extra money.

[CGD]

I get that you have to pay more money with the 3rd pick, but you still get to scout and interview all five of those guys at that tier and decide which one is most likely to develop into a leader and All-Star. If you're a competent organization, it's worth the extra money.

Fair. I would just be open to trade it and hope that someone at 5 ends up falling in love with someone to the point they want to deal.

[JPB]

Yeah, right now it feels like the 3rd pick is the tiest pick to have if 3-7 are all at the same level.

That's possible but I'm not sure we really have that great of a perception of that draft right now. I'm sure of the opposite actually... We're mainy guessing or rehashing vague media opinions on players most of us never even saw play and taking for granted posters (respectful) takes as if it was facts or common knowledge.

We just don't know honestly and I won't have the pretention to affirm for example that we should trade down because a few pundits said in February and we take for granted that there's no difference between 3-7 or there's a huge cliff after 2 with players we barely know or properly judge...

I'm sure comes draft day that there WILL be a difference, as there is every year. Tournament hasn't even started. There's no doubt players will emerge and 3-7 or so will clear until up the draft, the cliff maybe not being that big after 2 (we agree after 1)...

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, I have no idea how the Spurs will regard the lottery pick. Doesn't matter until the lottery really.

I'm as curious about the two SRPs. The one will be somewhere like 33 or 34, which has some value. And then that Toronto pick will be around 44, which isn't terrific.

[John B]

Nice read and a good problem for the PATFO. Making #9 pick Sochan even more great with more bang for the money. Hopefully Spurs get either Wemby or Scoot who are potentially All-NBA, then fairly high SRP’s are very ideal salary wise. Next year will be potential two lottery picks with Spurs own and a rebuilding Raptors’s pick, will most likely trade McD, Graham to make room. Then I think Spurs get compe ive after next season, but will get Hawks’ FRP who I’m hoping will be lottery (I see Hawks moving either Tre/Murray). I think Spurs picks situations are ideal, plus a dash of future lotteries in Hawks and Bulls. If Spurs get Wemby, I’d consider trading those picks in acquiring disgruntled AS players to run with.

[Ocotillo]

Good write up Body, and a fresh thread. I had been wanting to do something like this as well but while your's is a bit different from the direction I would have done, you did a better job than I would have.

Anyway, one thing that sticks in my craw is when someone says such and such player is not in the timeline (DJ, Jak, etc..) A team is not ideally all the same age. Once we get "the" player(s), you will want a mix of age/experience and salary levels to be compe ive. Everyone being the same age is churn and burn because if you were to hit on most of them, you end up not being able to keep them all salary wise unless Holt Cat is changing their behavior and luxury tax be damned.

Another thing is it appears a lot of these posters are approaching this rebuild like an old Soviet era 10 year plan. Depsite Wemby being available this draft, losing like this is miserable and a long term fix is not going to cut it. We don't have the fan base to be consistent lottery players.

[cjw]

Teams that go through ten year rebuilds aren’t actually going through ten year rebuilds. They just have no plan and are incompetent.

This is the first year the Spurs have outright tanked (they made play in last two years, and were part of bubble in 2020). They’ll come out of this draft with either a possible generational player, or a pretty darn good talent. I would put money on this year being the absolute depth of the rebuild, and part of that has been due to injuries + trading away guys for future assets. They’ll be back in the play-in mix before too long, and playoff mix soon enough too. Too many west teams have outright mortgaged their futures for it not to come back around.

[Dejounte]

Good write up Body, and a fresh thread. I had been wanting to do something like this as well but while your's is a bit different from the direction I would have done, you did a better job than I would have.

Anyway, one thing that sticks in my craw is when someone says such and such player is not in the timeline (DJ, Jak, etc..) A team is not ideally all the same age. Once we get "the" player(s), you will want a mix of age/experience and salary levels to be compe ive. Everyone being the same age is churn and burn because if you were to hit on most of them, you end up not being able to keep them all salary wise unless Holt Cat is changing their behavior and luxury tax be damned.

Another thing is it appears a lot of these posters are approaching this rebuild like an old Soviet era 10 year plan. Depsite Wemby being available this draft, losing like this is miserable and a long term fix is not going to cut it. We don't have the fan base to be consistent lottery players.

Make your thread. This board needs fresh takes and I appreciate Body for making this thread even though I give him for being a wild character sometimes. But that’s what makes him him. So kudos to you, Body.

[mo7888]

Good stuff... we need more thoughtful things like this..

[Sugus]

Teams that go through ten year rebuilds aren’t actually going through ten year rebuilds. They just have no plan and are incompetent.

This is the first year the Spurs have outright tanked (they made play in last two years, and were part of bubble in 2020). They’ll come out of this draft with either a possible generational player, or a pretty darn good talent. I would put money on this year being the absolute depth of the rebuild, and part of that has been due to injuries + trading away guys for future assets. They’ll be back in the play-in mix before too long, and playoff mix soon enough too. Too many west teams have outright mortgaged their futures for it not to come back around.

I'm of this thinking, too. Especially if they get Wemby, but Scoot as well. The tanking mindset that the Spurs have shown this season likely won't be there in those scenarios next season, which is a big difference. This year's team perfectly could've won 5-10 more games if they weren't actively sabotaged.

Then you look for that Kyrie, Porzingis, KD type of player and situation, and capitalize, or try to. The ATL picks, plus our own if need be, are more than enough for a disgruntled star. Throw in Keldon or some other player as well and...

I'd like to see what a Vassell, Sochan, Wemby, Star player + complimentary pieces team could get to do.

[K...]

if we do it right, are lowest result would be utah, a series of short tanks and pretender playoff teams. High point is memhis, a young hungry team that can grow into a 5 year window. The odds of having a star drag you to a chip are too low to care about. You have to plan for these abortive cycles and rebuilds and steadily churn through prospects and psuedo stars.