The Spurs' Draft Going Forward: Theory and Practice

[Silverheart80]

These generational type of players do not typically come in and march their new NBA team to a championship. Duncan pulled it off pretty quickly but he had a strong line up around him that had been injured the year he was drafted. Lebron took quite a bit of time. Curry did not turn them around right away. If Wemby lands on the Spurs or say Charlotte, Detroit or Houston, he isn't ringing his first season. Maybe if a team like New Orleans lucks into winning the lottery with the LA pick swap, they might pull something off if Zion can play a full season.

All this is saying, however good a rook is, it still takes time unless there are extraordinary cir stances.

Yeah, I don't think he's ringing upon his first season either. But player movement is so much more fluid now that it used to be. Even back in the day, Charlotte drafts Kobe Bryant with the 13th pick and he never plays a day as a Hornet, despite the team wanting him. His agent forced a trade to the Lakers and the league allowed it to happen. I can see those player demands happening even more in today's climate, especially in favor of bigger media markets. Wherever he goes, I can see major free agent vets wanting to join up with him, especially if it's a major market OR if it's a team that's well-constructed and has a savvy GM. It wouldn't take long in today's NBA to build a championship team around him, if he's in the right scenario.

So back to my point, if we have to compete against him, what I'm suggesting can't be accomplished in one season, nor does it need to be. But what I'm seeing is the long-term effect he's gonna have, if he stays healthy, and what the Spurs would need to do in the draft going forward, if we wanna compete for championships.

[wildbill2u]

To Silverhart90: You bring up an interesting point(s). The league, advertisers and possibly the player and his agents may well be against him signing with the Spurs or any city perceived to be less than optimal for their own selfish desires. What then? If we get him, are we going to be pressured from all sides to give him up? If not early (after the draft) or after one season? I can see that happening.

The problem is evident. Any team that would meet the approval from the above interests either doesn't have current assets we'd want in a trade or would run into a problem giving up multiple first round drafts choices that would be acceptable to us, if for no other reason than his new team would likely improve to the point where their FRPs would progressively get worse as he moves them up in the standings. We can get screwed even if our unicorn dreams come true.

[exstatic]

From everything I’ve read, all of the conjecture and speculation, SA would be a very desirable landing spot for Wemby. Let’s not buy trouble before we’ve even won the lottery. Euros tend to be less large market oriented, most of today’s contenders are aging out and out of draft picks, besides which any team he goes to will be a contender in a few years.

[slick'81]

Kawhi giving spur fans ptsd with yama

[Silverheart80]

To Silverhart90: You bring up an interesting point(s). The league, advertisers and possibly the player and his agents may well be against him signing with the Spurs or any city perceived to be less than optimal for their own selfish desires. What then? If we get him, are we going to be pressured from all sides to give him up? If not early (after the draft) or after one season? I can see that happening.

The problem is evident. Any team that would meet the approval from the above interests either doesn't have current assets we'd want in a trade or would run into a problem giving up multiple first round drafts choices that would be acceptable to us, if for no other reason than his new team would likely improve to the point where their FRPs would progressively get worse as he moves them up in the standings. We can get screwed even if our unicorn dreams come true.

We're all so focused on the draft odds, but in the end, no one knows what happens with those ping pong balls, behind closed doors. I can't imagine the league isn't gonna be heavily wanting Wembanyama to go to a major media market, such as Chicago. I'm hoping the lottery isn't rigged, but in the end, none of us really know, do we?

Thankfully, I haven't seen or heard anything yet from Wembanyama's camp that indicates he wouldn't play in a small market like SA. I guess we'll know shortly after May 16th, if the Spurs were to score the #1.

[Silverheart80]

From everything I’ve read, all of the conjecture and speculation, SA would be a very desirable landing spot for Wemby. Let’s not buy trouble before we’ve even won the lottery. Euros tend to be less large market oriented, most of today’s contenders are aging out and out of draft picks, besides which any team he goes to will be a contender in a few years.

From what info is out there so far -- I would agree. No firm indication he wouldn't play for a small market, as of yet. And definitely agree that wherever he goes, that team is on the fast track toward ring contention.

[exstatic]

We're all so focused on the draft odds, but in the end, no one knows what happens with those ping pong balls, behind closed doors. I can't imagine the league isn't gonna be heavily wanting Wembanyama to go to a major media market, such as Chicago. I'm hoping the lottery isn't rigged, but in the end, none of us really know, do we?

Thankfully, I haven't seen or heard anything yet from Wembanyama's camp that indicates he wouldn't play in a small market like SA. I guess we'll know shortly after May 16th, if the Spurs were to score the #1.

It’s run by one of the BigX accounting firms, and each team has an observer in the draw room. It’s not ping pong balls, either. It’s groups of number sequences randomly assigned to the teams.

[Silverheart80]

It’s run by one of the BigX accounting firms, and each team has an observer in the draw room. It’s not ping pong balls, either. It’s groups of number sequences randomly assigned to the teams.

I've never heard about in-room observers. Good one, if true. Also didn't know it's now groups of number sequences. Nice. Thanks.

[Mr. Body]

It’s run by one of the BigX accounting firms, and each team has an observer in the draw room. It’s not ping pong balls, either. It’s groups of number sequences randomly assigned to the teams.

Why are we thinking accounting firms are on the level? Like, there's literally no accreditation for 'ensuring drafts are free and fairly conducted for these sports cartels.'

I'm not saying they aren't honest, but their presence is pure theater. They're the same industry where Bear Stars imploded for fraud and there have been many other examples of high profile fraud throughout the business.

[exstatic]

Why are we thinking accounting firms are on the level? Like, there's literally no accreditation for 'ensuring drafts are free and fairly conducted for these sports cartels.'

I'm not saying they aren't honest, but their presence is pure theater. They're the same industry where Bear Stars imploded for fraud and there have been many other examples of high profile fraud throughout the business.

Bear Stearns was an investment/hedge firm, not an accounting firm. Accounting is one of the few industries that haven’t been deregulated to , and is operating pretty much as it did 100 years ago. Not perfect, but not as bad as you paint it.

[ambchang]

Arthur Andersen. Auditing is not as fool proof as people make it out to be.

That said, I’m quite confident the nba draft is conducted fairly.

[exstatic]

Arthur Andersen. Auditing is not as fool proof as people make it out to be.

That said, I’m quite confident the nba draft is conducted fairly.

Right, but their involvement in Enron’s downfall, and their own subsequent downfall is a cautionary tale for other accounting firms not to around, or they’ll find out. AA primarily failed because no one trusted them from that point.

[ambchang]

Right, but their involvement in Enron’s downfall, and their own subsequent downfall is a cautionary tale for other accounting firms not to around, or they’ll find out. AA primarily failed because no one trusted them from that point.

I felt bad for the other partners, one rogue guy and the entire practice crumbled overnight.

[Mr. Body]

Updating this with needless further thoughts. This came up in another thread, about who owns their own picks late in first round.

https://www.tankathon.com/

Cleveland
Denver
Philly
Boston
Milwaukee

Their picks belong to Indiana, Charlotte, Utah, etc. Only Milwaukee's belongs to a LAC, another playoff-oriented/non-rebuilding team.

Sacramento and Memphis do own their own picks.

The thought was that moving into the late first round using one or both of our SRPs or future capital might be good. I agree, but think it will be very hard. Maybe one of those teams wants to kick out -- Indiana has two of those late FRPs plus their lottery pick -- but if anything they'd likely want to leave the draft at that point rather than move into the SRP.

So, the Spurs have a tasty SRP with their own, currently 33, and an iffy one with Toronto's. It's hard to see the Spurs using both SRPs on themselves.

My feeling, based on nothing whatsoever, is that the Spurs will come out of the draft with two players. One, obviously, will be their lottery pick. The other is up for question. Say, if they traded their top pick to Orlando for their two later lottery picks (just saying), then those will be the two rookies and they'll move the last two SRPs. Or, if the Spurs select their lottery, then they'll look to only use one later pick, whether they combine the SRPs to move up somehow or use one, deal the other.

I just don't see three rookies given how many squawling baby chicks they have already.

[scott]

To the point above, the Spurs have so many upcoming draft picks that they are going to quickly run into the point where there is not enough developmental bandwidth for all this youth, and perhaps not even enough roster spots, assuming you’ll want to pair this youth with a veteran core and not go full OKC/HOU mode where it is all youth (this has worked out better for OKC than it has HOU).

So to that end, we must assume the developmental leash gets shorter, and the window for a player to show something is condensed before they must be moved to make way for the next promising talent. No longer will the Spurs be able to extend the kind of developmental timeline that, say, Lonnie Walker got. It’s going to have to be 1-2 year looks for some of these guys before you move on.

So given that… I wonder if Blake Wesley has shown enough to continue on the development path, or if it already time to think of him as an asset that can sweeten other deals. Branham is likely just beyond the event horizon of this point (but by no means would you not move him for the right deal as well).

[scott]

Of all the bad takes rascal has preferred on this board, I liked his idea of looking at that TOR pick from next year and using it to perhaps get MIN’s pick from UTA (If MIN falls into the lottery. I’m not interested if MIN is the #6 seed). Ainge would likely prefer one less pick next year to get one for next year. Sure, the TOR could be as high as #7, but it could theoretically be as low as #30. Say MIN ends up around #12-14, that is probably pretty fair value for that TOR pick.

[exstatic]

Of all the bad takes rascal has preferred on this board, I liked his idea of looking at that TOR pick from next year and using it to perhaps get MIN’s pick from UTA (If MIN falls into the lottery. I’m not interested if MIN is the #6 seed). Ainge would likely prefer one less pick next year to get one for next year. Sure, the TOR could be as high as #7, but it could theoretically be as low as #30. Say MIN ends up around #12-14, that is probably pretty fair value for that TOR pick.

On the face of it, I don't like it, but I'll wait to see where they finish this year. My feeling is that Toronto is headed for the abyss. I think they've taken the remnants of their 'chip team plus a few picks as far as they can. I also want to see where Orlando, Chicago, and the Spurs end up, post lottery. We may be able to finagle a second lottery pick without depleting future assets.

Blake seems to be rounding back into his pre-injury form. He had a real stat suffer last night, 11p/6a/4r/3st. He's the fastest player we've had since TP9.

[Mr. Body]

To the point above, the Spurs have so many upcoming draft picks that they are going to quickly run into the point where there is not enough developmental bandwidth for all this youth, and perhaps not even enough roster spots, assuming you’ll want to pair this youth with a veteran core and not go full OKC/HOU mode where it is all youth (this has worked out better for OKC than it has HOU).

So to that end, we must assume the developmental leash gets shorter, and the window for a player to show something is condensed before they must be moved to make way for the next promising talent. No longer will the Spurs be able to extend the kind of developmental timeline that, say, Lonnie Walker got. It’s going to have to be 1-2 year looks for some of these guys before you move on.

So given that… I wonder if Blake Wesley has shown enough to continue on the development path, or if it already time to think of him as an asset that can sweeten other deals. Branham is likely just beyond the event horizon of this point (but by no means would you not move him for the right deal as well).

OKC has trouble with the churn of players. Ousmane Dieng sort of replaces Pokushevski, who has been hurt (but has been lousy, so just pull the plug). Isaih Roby was cut to make room for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who might get replaced by Jaylin Williams. At some point you're just picking guys to replace guys you already have.

They have three studs (SGA, who was gifted to them, Giddey, Jalen Williams), a probable stud in Holmgren, some nice role players like Dort, and they still can't get out of the lottery in one of the easiest years to get out of the lottery -- all you had to do was not be mediocre.

They still get tons of picks, but at some point they're just drafting over the same types of players. The Spurs could be in a similar situation, but seem to be better (so far) at sending players on their way when they don't fit.

I definitely think Wesley has shown enough to keep going. He won't gain anything in trade, though.

[XDT76]

OKC has trouble with the churn of players. Ousmane Dieng sort of replaces Pokushevski, who has been hurt (but has been lousy, so just pull the plug). Isaih Roby was cut to make room for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who might get replaced by Jaylin Williams. At some point you're just picking guys to replace guys you already have.

They have three studs (SGA, who was gifted to them, Giddey, Jalen Williams), a probable stud in Holmgren, some nice role players like Dort, and they still can't get out of the lottery in one of the easiest years to get out of the lottery -- all you had to do was not be mediocre.

They still get tons of picks, but at some point they're just drafting over the same types of players. The Spurs could be in a similar situation, but seem to be better (so far) at sending players on their way when they don't fit.

I definitely think Wesley has shown enough to keep going. He won't gain anything in trade, though.

Spurs need to stop drafting players who needs the ball in their hands, with some many picks they need to look at players who fights for rebounds, play defend and do catch and shoot.

[Mr. Body]

Spurs need to stop drafting players who needs the ball in their hands, with some many picks they need to look at players who fights for rebounds, play defend and do catch and shoot.

That gets into questions of selecting best player available or drafting more for fit.

But, yeah, high usage players don't seem like a Spursy thing, especially as guards.

[heyheymymy]

Realistically I see the Spurs selling that TOR 2RP much like they outbounded K. Chandler to MEM last draft. Love any idea to bundle the 2RPs and possibly future draft capital for a late first though.

Just hard to find who would be a willing trade partner and I'm not really enamored with many likely late first talents enough to justify the deal. But it would be awesome to bundle say Doug while trading up and use the deal to move up, plus dump Doug/open a roster slot in the process, plus boost the selection value of SAs second choice(s) after the lottery pick. Doug + #33 + #41 for someone's late FRP + a future unprotected second?

But realistically I agree with taking two picks, the lottery and the #33 as a catch net for any first round fallers.

[heyheymymy]

Tough finding a team that needs Dougs established shooting, has been toggled into win-now mode by virtue of a top talent from the 23 draft and doesn't have "development bandwidth" to take on a new baby bird vs. using that slot for a reliable established player that requires no training resources really.

Someone like DET if they land Wemby and don't keep Diallo, and already have Wemby/Duren/Jade and to a lesser extent Cade still in the oven so to speak, would they bring on Doug for the #31 swap to #41 (plus another future 2RP)? Helps to show they were serious about keeping the new talent loyal. Doug is 2 years younger than Bojan in a similar player template so it resets the clock on the established wing shooter and Doug is a hawkeye who will no doubt feast in a system where other players are filling the plate on opposing defenses. Plus Wemby/Duren would create so many fast breaks with blocks, affecting shots, and Rebs that Doug would get lots of looks from that.

Plus #41 brings a less expectant of mins player to DET and could even be a draft stash to retain the rights of and next year cycle off whatever they don't need anymore to be replaced by the stash rights. Terrible idea but just trying to crack the facade of mutual interest in a deal here.

[rankingtear]

Our rebuild would look a lot like OKC, building the team of the future with large humans with guard/wing skills.

[exstatic]

Spurs need to stop drafting players who needs the ball in their hands, with some many picks they need to look at players who fights for rebounds, play defend and do catch and shoot.

Nope. We don’t have our franchise guy yet. You have to keep rolling the dice.

[exstatic]

That gets into questions of selecting best player available or drafting more for fit.

But, yeah, high usage players don't seem like a Spursy thing, especially as guards.

Devin: 20, 20.2
Keldon: 22.7
Jeremy 19.6
Malaki 24.1
Blake 31.3

Of those, only Blake would be considered high usage.