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No need to run simulations when you know the odds.
No need to run simulations when you know the odds.
Brilliant. Andy Kauffman-esque. Or not.
Looks to be higher than 14% though if my eye is guesstimating this properly. Looks to be closer to 16% or 17%. Not sure I understand the statistics behind that.
Yama is ours!!
don't matter where the pick lands the spurs will pick someone to shock everyone and we draft a clown!
10k simulations is still not big enough of a sample size.
I always wondered how do they actually do it.
Is it 15th to 1st pick or 1st to 15th?
I think they reveal 4th to 1st, and then open the rest of the envelopes. They used to do 14th to 1st, and you KNEW when someone jumped into the (then) top three. I guess it took longer, and the analysts didn't have enough blab time.
OK, to remove doubts, this simulation is a one liner on Matlab:sum(rand(1, 1000000000) < 0.14) / 1000000000That's one BILLION runs. Results a few seconds later:
- 0.139993920
- 0.140003561
Conclusions: 14% means 14 F'ING PERCENT!!!!
I think offset formation meant the particular 10,000 run and bar graph that PB did, not that the ACTUAL odds aren't 14%.
There's no way they use the envelopes, right?...right?
Envelopes are there just for the drama, a group of NBA people does the draft and puts corresponding team cards in envelopes when it's done.
Since odds have one decimal in them, that would mean there should be a thousand units of whatever they're using, assuming it's not just ran through an algorithm and done in physical form.
I can't imagine someone diving into a thousand envelopes to decide who gets the pick.
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer
The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday, May 16. ESPN will air the results live at 8 p.m. ET. The 38th annual NBA Draft Lottery will determine the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the 2023 NBA Draft. Drawings will be conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2022-23 regular-season records.
The actual lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just before ESPN’s national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings.
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.
The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.
If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.
A representative from Ernst & Young oversees the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the broadcast. The announcement of the lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum. A second representative from each participating team will be seated on stage. Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the lottery results before the envelopes are opened. The team whose logo is in the last envelope opened will have the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, which will be held on Thursday, June 22 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.
Exactly.
It's done with random groups of numbers assigned proportionally to each team within the draw system. Once they draw the first four draft pick number groups, offstage with representatives of all 30 teams witnessing, they stuff all 14 envelopes, and bring them to the stage.
If that guy who runs tankathon got one cent for each time someone pressed the SIM LOTTERY button on the site, he'd be able to retire. , i'd probably owe him $75 myself.
Thanks for clarification, assigning combinations to draft balls is the best thing to do, didn't think about that possibility.
One time I was bored I wrote a small program to calculate the exact odds, to double check on Tankathon. Their odds check out, here with a little extra precision (per row, red -hot- to blue -cold- for most likely to least likely positions per record):
also did a small program to generate a large number of batches, because Tankathon was not giving me accurate results. Simulating this is pretty fast and cheap, Tankathon adds a lot of effects and delay for dramatic purposes.
Or about 14%
Maybe I missed something but that doesn't explain how they guarantee bottom 3 teams to be no lower than 5,6 or 7. I suppose if spurs finish 3rd worst and their lower possible pick is 7, then if no spurs combination has been drawn yet and it's time to attribute the 7th pick, they automatically get it...
i ran it againOr about 14%
do u approve of my new sig
i ran it again
is it u?i ran it again
lol
I have Madam Silver arranging the #1 pick to land in Portland.
Only 1 through 4 are assigned randomly, then 5-14 are assigned according to record, worst to best.
That means a given lottery team can land 1-4, keep their current slot, or go back one slot for each team with a better record that leapfrogs them.
Say you have the best record and you don't get top 4, you're the worst of the remaining teams thus you land no. 5 (and no worse).
If you have 2nd worst and you don't get top 4, you can get no. 5 if the worst record landed a top 4 place and thus you're the worst of the bunch, or no. 6 if neither you nor the worst record landed a top 4 spot which means you're still 2nd worst among remaining teams.
In general, for a team with the nth worst record, they can pick 1-4 (lottery), n, or go back up one spot for every team better than you that leapfrogged you.
For instance
if you're the 7th worst record and top 4 is 4,1,3,2, then the rest of the lottery proceeds 5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14
If top 4 is 8,1,5,2 then one team with a better record than you leapfrogged you, so you're pushed back one spot to 8
if top 4 is 9,3,2,10, then 2 teams with a better record leapfrogged you, so you're pushed back 2 spots to 9
Worst case scenario is all 4 spots are awarded to teams with better records than you, say top 4 is 13,11,8,10 then there are still 6 teams with a worst record than yours so you pick 7 + 4 = 11
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