14,14,14
It's correct. You can think of it like this:
#2 & #3 have equal odds at 1-4
Then, #2 has 27.8% @5 and 20% @6
Meanwhile, #3 has a 14.8% @5. That 13% difference against #3 gets split: 6% gets demoted one place (which is why @6 you have 26% -20% + 6%-) and 7% gets demoted 2 spots (hence 7% @7). So basically 87% of the time they're equally good, 6% of the time #3 is one spot down, and 7% of the time #3 is two spots down. Which is always better for #2.
So is that
14 Detroit
14 Houston
14 San Antonio?
^ I'm just messing with you.
While i agree 99% of the seasons main goal has been accomplished, I still think Pop should have finished and made a final run at Houston.
Having a hot Dougie McD in to swing the win was a horrible strategy move.
No, no contender is going to up Dougies stock by seeing a Game 77 hot streak. The entire NBA knows he is a defensive traffic cone.
We saw all the offers he got at the deadline, right?
Only way he is moved is next year when a team needs cap relief and takes him in his final year contract.
That is if Popped doesn't buy him out.
With how many times this has been discussed this year, everyone on this board should have the draft odds memorized by now. Yet, here we are.
It's because of Covid
i couldn't help but find myself happy for the young ones after this win even it it means we likely won't drop to 2n worst records. there is value in a young team learning how to win and this game was a perfect example of that.
It had to be soul crushing during the 1-16 and 0-16 streaks.
It changes everything with his expiring contract. I also wanted the L as it would’ve gotten them tied with HOU and a toss-of-coin chance at 2. (I know ALL about the same 14% chance for 3 worst teams, but the possibility of sliding all the way to 7th pick instead of 6th could be a pick shy of drafting a Cam Whitmore, just an example.^ I'm just messing with you.
While i agree 99% of the seasons main goal has been accomplished, I still think Pop should have finished and made a final run at Houston.
Having a hot Dougie McD in to swing the win was a horrible strategy move.
No, no contender is going to up Dougies stock by seeing a Game 77 hot streak. The entire NBA knows he is a defensive traffic cone.
We saw all the offers he got at the deadline, right?
Only way he is moved is next year when a team needs cap relief and takes him in his final year contract.
That is if Popped doesn't buy him out.
Doug wasn’t the only one who had a good game. Trey got his first triple-double, Champagnie got his career high. Honestly with the exception of Blake, everybody played well against a playoff bound team. They competed and Pop coached them hard at the end to help reward them with a win. I think Pop chose to teach vs getting a % of getting the 6th/7th pick. At the end, Pop chose to coach. I guess we don’t have 5 rings to question his decision what’s best for the team.
I agree with you, but like Mr Body pointed out somewhere, the difference between #2 and #3 only matters when they're both out of the top 4. And in such a scenario, given Houston's needs (playmaking and defense) and track record (going all or nothing) I think they'd target one of the Thompson twins (playmaking and perceived upside -whether real or not-) or hometown boy Jarace Walker (defense to make up for Sengun). So if we end up missing on Cam Whitmore, IMO it's unlikely it'll be because we end up #3 instead of #2.
Houston won tonight so Spurs back in with a chance to tie and a coin flip in the end.
Damn and over the Nuggets. Don’t worry Spurs are not winning over Sun, down a lot.
rascal could you explain that to exstatic?
And it's not just by tie and coinflip. Spurs can now also pass Houston in losses.
3 games left for Spurs.
2 games left for Houston.
20-62 Spurs lose out
21-61 Houston with one more miracle win like tonight vs Denver.
Last edited by MultiTroll; 04-04-2023 at 11:34 PM. Reason: got distracted by superb nachos
The only scenario where Houston would pick 6th is to have four other teams that finished with a better record than them get the first four picks, which is not as likely as the spurs picking 6th, which only require three teams with a better record leap frogging the spurs and either one of Houston or Detroit getting one of the first four picks.
Yes there is a difference. At 2nd the Spurs will have the pick that they like other than Wemby or even the option to trade that pick. 2 is better than 3 or lower.
I'll increase the size of the part you ignored or failed to read. Regarding picking #1 overall, both 2 and 3 have a 1/7 chance. NO DIFFERENCE.
It can be taken either way. The draft can be called the Wembystakes.
Saying there is no difference in 2nd or 3rd can either mean no difference in probability between getting the 2nd pick or third pick but it can also mean you see no difference if the Spurs get 2nd or 3rd pick.
Most people know about the odds in getting 2nd or 3rd now but still many are saying outside of the top pick it doesn't matter where the Spurs pick.
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