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yea but id rather not fall a spot further if i didnt have to
Really the difference between finishing 2nd or 3rd only really impacts the odds of selecting 5th vs 6th and finishing 2nd to last guarantees we won't get the 7th pick. So yeah, not really an issue for me since the odds on those top 4 picks don't change regardless of the finish 1 through 3.
yea but id rather not fall a spot further if i didnt have to
Six or seven doesn’t matter in this draft. It’s three players, and a pretty steep cliff to the next level.
Manu was the Spurs best 2nd rounder at 57 and it was luck more than anything. In fact the Spurs took Giricek (same position) that very year, so if the FO had really known what they had in Manu, they wouldn't have gambled missing out on him by letting every team pick twice before grabbing him. Credit to RC Buford for using that last dollar on his wallet wisely, though. 2nd rounders are a crap shoot.
Last edited by Ariel; 04-07-2023 at 12:53 PM.
As we've proven with the Joshua Primo pick, once you get past the no-brainers, this team is willing to go off the path anyway. We can do that just as easily from the 5, 6 or 7 position.
I've said it elsewhere, but I actually see a dead spot between 4-6, maybe even including 3. To me it's Wembanyama, Scoot, and then possibly Miller, then a drop off of players I personally don't value and don't know if the team will value them. I'm saying Amen and Ausar Thompson and probably Cam Whittmore. We might see a guy like Jarace Walker get taken in the top six. We might see Taylor Hendricks go that high, but probably not both.
If you're drafting 4-6, you may be taking players who aren't ready and may never be ready, PLUS you're paying a premium for them.
It's counter-intuitive, but if I don't land 1 or 2, then I don't mind dropping several picks, UNLESS I'm sure I can trade down, OR I actually value one of those players mentioned above. Reason is that a player I like is likely going to be there at 6 or 7 and I get them at a better pay scale.
Again, this is ONLY if I miss out on the top 1 and 2. AND I can't get value out of 3-5 by trading them.
There’s risk to finishing 3rd vs 2nd but honestly I kind of prefer 3rd…..Only because if you survive not getting pick 6 or 7, then your odds IMPROVE on cracking into top 4 at that point. Ya, you have higher odds at pick 7 & 6 combined, but if you can clear those hurdles? Your pick 5 odds are less in position 3 and as many have said all that matters is getting as close to top 3 as possible.
It’s going to be gut wrenching hearing picks 7 & 6 called out - but if Spurs are still alive after that, odds of being in top 4 now go way up which is what matters (especially top 3)
Thinking ahead, obviously want a top 2 pick. But if Spurs land pick 3, would be sick if it was DET who landed pick 2. I wonder with Cade/Ivey already if they would take Miller and SA still ends up with Scoot or if SA could trade with DET to give them some extra value to do that.
Just a random scenario I’m thinking about.
Couple reminders for you "it doesn't matter" guys.
And I get your point 100%. However:
Greek Freak 12th or something like that.
Kwa Leonard 15th.
Even with improved scouting methods it's not a 100% accurate proposition.
We could have picked either of them with #7.
I simply don't believe that picks 4-7 are basically the same value like some people are trying to make them out to be, but it's a moot point because when Houston loses tonight, the Spurs will be locked in third anyways.
Just remember, there are plenty of times Spurs have scouted out great prospects just to have another team swoop in and grab them at the last second. Nic Batum immediately comes to mind, and he was way further down the draft.
The higher the Spurs are, the better chances they have to get THEIR guy in their range.
The point is how you put players in tiers. If you really dig the Thompsons and/or Whitmore, cool. I understand why. To me, they are in the same Tier of "athletic marvels with gaping holes in their games."
Now, I think those players are all going to go high, just after the top 2. Brandon Miller will probably go top 3 or 4. Another player might sneak in there. It's hard (right now) to see anyone jumping past these players. Maybe Jarace Walker or Taylor Hendricks. We'll see.
The Tier after those "athletic marvels" are players (to me) like Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Anthony Black, Gradey . Let's call them the 'more skilled' Tier. I would love to have any of those players on my team. Do I value them more than Wembanyama? Of course not. Do I value them more than Thompson/Thompson/Whitmore? Yes, I do.
Ergo, if I miss on those top 2 picks, I'm fine dropping, because I don't think anyone is going to pick all of those 'more skilled' Tier players before they get through the 'athletic marvels' Tier.
So, yes, because of how I'm reading the way things will fall out, I do see the 4-7 range as pretty flat. And I'd rather pick one of my 'more skilled' Tier players before an 'athletic marvel' Tier player. That's just how I am approaching this. The problem, honestly, to me? Is if we land at 4-5 and can't trade slightly down.
Even our own DPG21920 lamented on Twitter that if Houston lands #1 from the 2 spot, we'll be kicking ourselves, but that's also the wrong way to look at things. There are so many steps between the final seeding and the draft lotto, that you can't simply say "see, Houston got Wemby! Had we just lost 2 more games we'd be getting him!" Swapping positions in the standings does not translate directly to swapping spots in the lottery.
But then again, trying to explain probability to the average human being is like trying to hit a hole-in-one from the moon.
This win is meaningless, except for that 7% chance we land #7 or whatever 2nd rounder rascal loves that we might miss out on
Last edited by scott; 04-07-2023 at 02:47 PM.
To be clear, I added the context that the feeling of HOU landing Wemby from spot 2 has nothing to do with math. I said its how it will be “viewed” and it will be out of pure emotions/fate…but not math. So there’s some context to what I said…
#2 and #3 have the same odds at 1-4, and in practical terms the only difference is when they both land outside top 4, where #2 pushes #3 one pick back.
So unless there's a player you badly want you think Houston would take at 5/6, it makes no difference whatsoever. Even then, that scenario happens only 20% of the time.
And if a player like that is drafted 12th or 15th this year all the armchair GMs in here will wonder why the Spurs passed on this gem at 5,6 or 7.
Yeah, I figured you understand that and were just observing how others will view it, but that's not the correct way to look at it. Of course, there are Spurs fans who will think we should pick Wemby from #4, so expecting average people to understand the lottery is kind of futile.
Survive picks 7 & 6 and we can start to hope. Either way, chips fall where there may.
Dex
With the 2nd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage would be landing at #5 with a possibility of dropping to #6.
With the 3rd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage is landing at #6 and opens up the possibility of falling all the way to #7. As it stands, we have a 40% chance of finishing top 3, and a 33% chance of ending up with 6 or 7.
Basically, getting the 2nd worst record gives San Antonio a 13% higher percentage of NOT dropping out of the top 5....which, as stated is roughly the same percentage we have to nab Wendy.
The ship has basically already sailed, but when we are arguing percentage points then 13% is NOT insignificant.
Houston leading at halftime vs Charlotte.
Altho i fully expect Houston to tank the 4th qtr big time.
Unlucky that Spurs beat Kings AND Dallas game is now meaningless and Dallas is tanking. SMH…
Dallas just beat Sacto on Wednesday. That would have been an easy game to dump. They’re just mid.
Dallas has pivoted and it clearly tanking now. I though the win over the Kings signaled they wanted the Play-In, but someone somewhere made an executive decision.
This is the kind of Pop used to get fined for lol
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Apr 7
Tim Hardaway Jr.SF
StatusOut
Hardaway will miss Friday's game versus the Bulls due to left ankle soreness.
Maxi KleberPF
StatusOut
Kleber (hamstring) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Bulls.
Christian WoodF
StatusOut
Wood has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Bulls due to rest purposes.
Josh GreenSG
StatusOut
Green has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Bulls for rest purposes.
Kyrie IrvingPG
StatusOut
Irving (foot) has been ruled out for Friday's game against Chicago.
Ditto the Heat today.
100 Tanker, all starters out.
Rockets 99
Hornets 91
Can't wait to see these last 6 minutes.
Do You believe in Miracles? (Al Michaels voice).
No, i don't. I expect Houston to go full tank like last nights 119-110 lead vs the Spurs tanked away.
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