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How many of the league's big stars are actually that athletic? Giannis? LeBron was huge and powerful, not a freak athlete. Westbrook was at one point. Who else? That's about it.
You might want to read this article. It cuts to just what a lot of analysts, and almost all fans get wrong in evaluating players.
BTW, KawhiLeonard, who developed into an absolute superstar, had a max vert of only 32”. It’s not about athleticism. If it were, Lonnie would be an All Star,but he isn’t, and never will be.
https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/t...ide-of-upside/
How many of the league's big stars are actually that athletic? Giannis? LeBron was huge and powerful, not a freak athlete. Westbrook was at one point. Who else? That's about it.
I would be disappointed if the Spurs pick Black at like #3, but for me personally, I like Black if we slip all the way back to like 6 or 7. Not saying he's my only consideration. But I do think when other people show interest in Black it's in the context of Spurs falling back in the lottery, and so if we are picking 6 or 7, is there a player with the high upside that you are thinking of?
I'm just curious, if Spurs are at say #6 or 7, would you pick Black or a Thompson twin? I think that is an interesting debate, and one the Spurs might find themselves in.
I think almost everyone here would pick a Thompson, but the Spurs would pick Black.
This is also why I don't stress about 6 or 7. The first three picks are pretty much set, with some debate over 2-3, and the Thompsons are likely to go 4,5, so if we're 6-7, that leaves Black and Hendricks on the board.
Yeah, you pick Black. He's far more likely to be an effective NBA player.
I think a lot of the rhetoric around Black is mistaken. He's not weak. He's not unathletic. He's actually pretty well-built for his position, not just a tall skinny dude. His lateral quickness and maneuverability is very high. He can jump, but yes, it takes some runway. But athleticism is not just jumping. I have no idea why people keep thinking it's just jumping. He's very nimble on the court. He scraps and drives into contact; he doesn't shy away from it.
It's engaging in a fallacy, I admit, by assuming the case in one situation transfers to another, but many were adamant that Sochan would never be a star, could only be a complementary piece. It turns out transferring his skill base and active skills into a wider-spaced NBA game caused him to start ringing a lot of bells. I do see similarities.
I feel like we're going around in circles about some of these players. I am less enthusiastic about Black than I was about Sochan last year, who was 100% my pick at the time. But then we're not picking at #9. I would 1000% pick Black at #9 this year! I just don't think Black's as good as a player coming out of his freshman year as Sochan and may never be. It's awkward drafting that guy after a rough year.
Black needs more coin flips, using Dean's terminology, to go his way than Sochan did. I don't see them as insurmountable, though. He needs to clean up his handle, although he was playing out of position (PG) because NSJ was injured most of the year. He needs to clean up his shot. He keeps his left hand on the ball WAY too long, like Sochan, yet somehow was able to shoot 70% FTs on a good sample size even with that janky form. He needs to clean up his defensive form. He has all of the tools, but bites on fakes too often, either jumping or overcommitting one way or another. So, three coin flips: shot, handle, defensive form/discipline.
I see him as a 2, but one who can moonlight up or down one position.
I think you're wrong with your assessment of the Spurs FO these days. They are looking for a first option and are willing to take long shots on development; consider they picked Primo over Sengun. Apparently because they thought that Primo, with development (longer path though), had a better/more valuable archetype. They also don't have a hate for OTE players (they picked up Barlow). The twins are some of the highest potential shots on the board... I suspect that they are much higher on the Spurs draft board than you would like.
My guess at the Spurs draft board
Tier 1
Wemby (duh)
Tier 2
Scoot
Thompson Twins
I suspect that Brandon Miller is on a don't draft list after his off-court issues and poor march madness performance.
Primo was much more prepared to play advanced team basketball than the Thompson twins are at this point. It seems reasonable that they will require a lot of preparation. And Primo at draft time was almost two full years younger than they are now.
They picked up Barlow because he was free. I'm sure they would have drafted him with their SRP if they had to. Would they have used a lottery pick on him? Doubtful.
I don't doubt there's a point where the Spurs would draft Amen or Ausar. I just don't know that it would be with their high lotto pick. The word 'potential' is a difficult one. I place more potential with players who already show basketball ability rather than being run-and-jump athletes. However, Ausar does show some good shooting stats and that helps.
Also, I'm not entirely sure they're looking for a 'first option' in the sense that that is a high usage iso scorer type. That's not what the Spurs run or what they seem to want. Besides, neither Thompson kid seems like a first option at all in any fashion.
Exactly, thinking his numbers will translate directly to the NBA. Black will be a better college player than an NBA player.
So, you're saying that the Spurs learned the Primo lesson of off the court stuff, but not draft over reaching? Also, Sengun isn't a star in the making or a desirable archtype as a center. Also Sengun played in a really good league, and Primo played in a high D1 NCAA program, and they were both young, both 18 on draft night.
The comparison is SGs to a SG. Barlow was OTE, but we didn't draft him, let alone expend a lottery pick on him. I recall a Pop quote about him being a good kid, but basically knowing nothing about basketball. OTE is ing garbage, and if you consider them a legit development platform, then we don't have a frame of reference to even have a discussion. The Thompson Twins were messing around, playing in a nothing league against HS players. Oh, and they're 20.
Most all of them have athleticism, or incredible perimeter shooting or extreme quickness to the basket to beat their man.
So, then none of the other college players will hit their lesser numbers, either? Still puts him ahead, and not a little bit. He's shockingly better than everyone else in the top 10 at getting to the line, including Wemby, like more than double the rate of many of them.
Last edited by exstatic; 04-13-2023 at 10:09 AM.
No, I literally just said almost none of them are supreme athletes in the NBA. Many of them aren't even that quick. Embiid, Harden, Lillard, Doncic, Jokic, Kawhi, George, Siakim, Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Beale, Randle, Durant, Chris Paul, Booker, Davis. Not a single one of them are what you'd call extremely quick. Most of them you wouldn't say are unbelievable athletes. Only Curry you could say is quick, but he's also not blazingly quick.
You can say Morant is a supreme athlete. Giannis is very athletic, but not absurdly so.
It also leaves Walker and Cam, as well as Gradey ..
If they're your cup of tea, sure.
Moreover than Black, so I guess yes...
Everyone backs their own horses. I'm not even trying to get the 2023 draft right. If I were, I'd have the Thompsons higher, where they will inevitably get drafted. I'm trying to nail the two year redraft two years early where everyone says "how did we get that so wrong?".
I don't think it's a lock at all that the Thompson go 4 and 5, so I think there is likely some wiggle room.
I watch teams select 'deer' year after year, so I'm skeptical of your optimism. Even good organizations like GS screw the pooch, sometimes more than once, like with Kuminga and Wiseman.
I agree.
Well timvp says the Thompson twins are top 3 and 4 on his big board, so maybe the spurs are that team this year.
I mean, even going by the mock drafts, Ausar is typically around 6 through 8, I thought, unless that's changed. I agree teams can get enamored with low floor and high upside players and group think, for sure. But I can easily see Jarace or Cam go before Ausar, for example.
One caveat is that if Toronto jumps into the top 4, they wouldn't touch either with a 10 foot pole. Masai doesn't fall for the hype or the groupthink. EVERYONE had them picking Suggs, since they were letting Lowry roll off, and they picked Barnes instead.
Speaking of Ausar, I think it's funny that he won OTE MVP and his brother is still considered the much better prospect.
He may be trying to get the draft positioning right instead of the early two year re-draft like I am. If I were trying to actually nail the actual draft night selections, they'd be higher.
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