Draft projects to watch besides Wembanyama & Henderson

**exstatic** · 05-07-2023

Self creation involves many parts: dribbling, athleticism, ability to pull up off the dribble, ISO moves, basketball IQ to make reads when to make a pass or shoot.

Here’s typically the problem with your player assessment of draft prospects: you rely on numbers as your end-all, be-all source to dictate what you feel about players.

And you discount them almost completely. Most videos are highlights.

**Dejounte** · 05-07-2023

Originally Posted by exstatic

And you discount them almost completely. Most videos are highlights.

Wrong on both accounts. I probably spend the most time here watching full games (hard to find, btw) and I literally just posted a 1+ hour video showing most, if not all, shot attempts, defensive possessions of Taylor Hendricks…which you will not spend a minute of your time watching because you’re so caught up in your stats.

and you couldn’t be more wrong about me being dismissive of stats. That’s part of my real-life profession— I’m involved in BI, combining my data analytics (with my engineering background) with SQL to get the most out of business metrics.

**exstatic** · 05-07-2023

Originally Posted by Dejounte

Wrong on both accounts. I probably spend the most time here watching full games (hard to find, btw) and I literally just posted a 1+ hour video showing most, if not all, shot attempts, defensive possessions of Taylor Hendricks…which you will not spend a minute of your time watching because you’re so caught up in your stats.

and you couldn’t be more wrong about me being dismissive of stats. That’s part of my real-life profession— I’m involved in BI, combining my data analytics (with my engineering background) with SQL to get the most out of business metrics.

Did you do the comparison yet?

**Dejounte** · 05-07-2023

Originally Posted by exstatic

Did you do the comparison yet?

Ah, I see where this conversation is going… it’s time to deflect time! I’ve already told you my opinion on that.

**exstatic** · 05-07-2023

Originally Posted by Dejounte

Ah, I see where this conversation is going… it’s time to deflect time! I’ve already told you my opinion on that.

BI guy won’t look at stats, wide ranging and diverse stats. Got it.

**Dejounte** · 05-07-2023

Originally Posted by exstatic

BI guy won’t look at stats, wide ranging and diverse stats. Got it.

I’ve looked at it a long time ago, way before you ever did. It’s the first thing I do when I look at players. The difference between me and you is, I don’t let that stop me from researching further about a player and let it sway my opinion 100%. You have a mind block that makes it harder to comprehend that a player could ever be/ become good if the stats don’t say it.

It just takes a little bit more effort if you’re actually serious about this thing.

**exstatic** · 05-07-2023

Originally Posted by Dejounte

I’ve looked at it a long time ago, way before you ever did. It’s the first thing I do when I look at players. The difference between me and you is, I don’t let that stop me from researching further about a player and let it sway my opinion 100%. You have a mind block that makes it harder to comprehend that a player could ever be/ become good if the stats don’t say it.

It just takes a little bit more effort if you’re actually serious about this thing.

If I were just about the numbers, I’d be pimping Zach Edey. He crushes advanced stats, but I understand that the mismatches he creates are for 2 points, and the mismatches he can be put into are for 3 points. His game isn’t the modern game for his position, and he would be problematic in the NBA.

You talk about what a player can be, but you pin Taylor on what he is now. What I see is a player who was ranked #46 on RSCI, not even on the radar as a one and done, who crushed it. He wasn’t a good shooter in HS, but he is now, the best college shooter of the 4 domestic big forwards. Of those top 100 RSCI players, he finished 2nd in WS, behind only Miller. He’s obviously got room to grow, but he’s shown that he CAN grow. That, in itself, is a skill. I wouldn’t bet against him acquiring any of those skills he lacks, and in fact would bet on it. He’s got the shot and the defense to buy minutes on the Spurs, like Kawhi did. How far will Taylor go? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t bet on him topping out as a catch and shoot 4. He’s shown that he won’t be put into anyone’s boxes.

**duncan2150** · 05-09-2023

Don't forget this guy

**duncan2150** · 05-09-2023

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

**rascal** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by duncan2150

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

His ceiling is good college player.

**rascal** · 05-09-2023

Andre Jackson for the spurs second round pick. Good team player and tough defender.

The second round pick is where you focus on a more defensive minded player.

The first round you target a player with extreme athleticism and upside offensive potential.

**PhantomDashCam** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by duncan2150

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

I'm a big fan of this guy too. I love the way he processes the game. Think he'll be a coach's favorite player before long. He reminds me of a taller Derrick White, sans jumper (so San Antonio D. White, lol...j/k).
Not sure if he has what it takes to be a lead guard in the NBA but I think he'll have a solid career.

**heyheymymy** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by duncan2150

Don't forget this guy

"That was not difficult"

**heyheymymy** · 05-09-2023

agreed rascal

I like that call for Andre Jackson Jr. with #33

**BacktoBasics** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by duncan2150

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

This is the pick if we’re anywhere outside of 4. I really like this kid.

**Ariel** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by heyheymymy

agreed rascal

I like that call for Andre Jackson Jr. with #33

Pass, his inability to shoot is too much of a handicap nowadays, I'm hoping for a higher ceiling prospect available at 33 or a trade up into the mid 20s. I'd consider him at 44 though.

**Ariel** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by BacktoBasics

This is the pick if we’re anywhere outside of 4. I really like this kid.

Me too, but I have Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Whitmore and Hendricks before him.

**heyheymymy** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by Ariel

Pass, his inability to shoot is too much of a handicap nowadays, I'm hoping for a higher ceiling prospect available at 33 or a trade up into the mid 20s. I'd consider him at 44 though.

Yeah he looked admittedly very subdued in the tourney for sure but carries himself well, hard to ignore his pedigree and I like the potential and he was kinda always a subtle plus in the flow of things. Seems like the type SA could fashion into a steal granted minimal expectations. Tank has him a bit in between the 33 and the 44 so if you somehow want him he might not last till our later 2nd.

But I agree, 33 has the chance to net some falling goods and in that case obvs let's catch the sure thing. But Jackson Jr is on the stretch there around 33 with TJ-D, Straw, Podziemski and perhaps a few others where I'm including him in that batch though to your point I prefer Jackson Jr maybe the least of those usual suspects and then if you can get an unexpected dream faller from the late first well even better and that's a no brainier.

**Mr. Body** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by duncan2150

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

I agre about his ceiling. It's hard to project where he'll wind up, but then in this draft class he's either plus or plus/plus in two major areas -- perimeter defense and passing. There might be better at either skill, but he's at least in the mix for the best at both. He's simply a playmaker on both sides.

His reads on offense are often exceptional, meaning he sees advantages very quickly when they happen or are about to happen. Can he add playmaking skills to this, setting up PnRs and so on? Definitely think so. And then on defense he can be majorly disruptive. His on-ball defense is the sort the team needs badly, a lengthy guard who is relentless over screens, walls up while moving, and just doesn't stop guarding. He's also superb on helps and won't have any problem learning his rotations. He's a pest digging balls in his area.

The knocks on him are these:

- He's not athletic
- He's not strong
- He's a bad shooter

The first two are false. He has good athleticism. Far from a Jared Dudley, he's really undersold in this regard. More, his movement in open lateral space is very good. He's also much stronger than many think. His strength is in his legs, actually: he's much sturdier than expected, with a really great mobile base. And then strong in the trunk, which helps him get 5 FTA/G, higher than most of the bigs in this draft.

I think he'll be a top 5 player in the class in only a few short years. I would pick him over the Thompsons without hesitation. I just need to think about Jarace and Hendricks. I'd definitely put him over Whitmore. He just knows the game better: I've read analysis pointing out how steal percentage has a high correlation to success in the NBA. There are exceptions, where a player rating high in this stat doesn't have the physical tools to excel in the NBA. Or players who had high steal percentages who didn't become good NBA defenders, like James Harden, but then he excelled everywhere else. The suggestion is the score may show a good knack for the game.

Cam Whitmore has a very high 3.2 steal percentage, which keeps having me hang around in my ratings. (It's other areas where I dislike him so much and makes me think this is an outlier.) Somewhere around a 2.3-2.5 is a good defensive player/someone who reads the game well. Many players are in the 1.5% range. Anthony Black is at a 3.4% at the end of the year.

The way drafts get inertia in how players are regarded, plus how ceiling/potential are regarded, Black is going to be picked in the mid-lottery maybe into 10 or 11. To me that will be a mistake. While I'm not as positive as I was last year on Sochan, who I thought might become one of the top 3-5 players in his draft class over time, I'm not entirely sure on Black. His advanced stats don't quite tell the same story. But what I see is at very minimum a very high level starter and role-player in his career, a Derrick White connector and superior defender, although their games are a bit different. And obviously he's like five years younger coming into the draft than White was. Ceiling, though, is a gamer, a fighter, a compe or who will do what it takes to win and is All-Star caliber.

Also, he's fun to watch. He's like Manu where he makes plays on both ends of the court that are just a joy to watch.

**rascal** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by Ariel

Pass, his inability to shoot is too much of a handicap nowadays, I'm hoping for a higher ceiling prospect available at 33 or a trade up into the mid 20s. I'd consider him at 44 though.

You aren't getting a high offensive player at 33. You get that with the first round pick.

You're getting a solid defender non starter rotation player with that 33 pick.

**rascal** · 05-09-2023

Originally Posted by heyheymymy

Yeah he looked admittedly very subdued in the tourney for sure but carries himself well, hard to ignore his pedigree and I like the potential and he was kinda always a subtle plus in the flow of things. Seems like the type SA could fashion into a steal granted minimal expectations. Tank has him a bit in between the 33 and the 44 so if you somehow want him he might not last till our later 2nd.

But I agree, 33 has the chance to net some falling goods and in that case obvs let's catch the sure thing. But Jackson Jr is on the stretch there around 33 with TJ-D, Straw, Podziemski and perhaps a few others where I'm including him in that batch though to your point I prefer Jackson Jr maybe the least of those usual suspects and then if you can get an unexpected dream faller from the late first well even better and that's a no brainier.

He won't last to 44 and even might go in the first round. I think he's going to show well in try outs and the combine and interview as a winnning type of team player.

A solid rotation player coming off the bench.

I like him more than Podziemski, one dimensional shooter, too slow overall, can't get to the rim to finish and a defensive liability, quicker players blow right past him, if his 3 point shot is not falling does little else. He's not a starter quality player so just stick with Jackson who has a better all around game outside of perimeter shooting.