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I had missed the detail in the picturenice
Lol timvp did you put praying dog.jpg through AI upscaling lol
I had missed the detail in the picture
Lol just noticed the wemby picture frame in the background this pic has def been updated lol
Don’t kid yourself, Wemby somewhere praying the Spurs land that 1st pick too.
However it shakes out - at least the Spurs gave themselves a chance.
3 pages in and no one's posted the Spurs-themed religious candles??
Bro im going to die if Dallas and HOU are top 2
Dallas has less chance than we did last year. I would die laughing if one of the teams behind them jumped into the top 4, and bumped them back a spot, costing them their pick after some pretty blatant tanking in the last few games.
Wemby or bust tbh.
Dallas, Charlotte, Washington, San Antonio on my tankathon roll.
It's weird to stop referring to it as expected value because it's the mean over a large sample... because that's always been the definition of expected value
10 spins on Tankathon
2
6
3
1
5
5
3
6
6
4
Plenty of luck left in the tank for tomorrow.
I like it
As you watch, keep in mind that as each pick is revealed the scenarios possible decrease. I wonder if its possible to draw up a cheat sheet detailing what the odds are given the number of non chalk picks and the number of picks remaining. Should be an easy chart to make right?
Right, but people who don’t understand stats think that we’re “expected” to get pick #4, when in fact, pick #4 is our second lowest odds. Stats casuals.It's weird to stop referring to it as expected value because it's the mean over a large sample... because that's always been the definition of expected value
Yeah for sure. The biggest shortcoming of statistics is the reliance on the average human to understand them.
Yes, although it's somewhat misleading since the result are displayed in the reverse order of which they actually previously occurred... so it's a false dynamic odds set.
I think the Lottery would be WAY more interesting if they drew in reverse and did it live. So they'd start with #14 and the Spurs, Rockets and Pistons would have the least number of balls in the hopper, then we'd move to #13, #12, etc. Then the dynamic odds charts would be meaningful and fun (at least for us nerds).
I'm also on the record of thinking that this weird serpentine curve outcome set for the worst teams is ing stupid. Just wanted to make that clear.
I actually made a program in Matlab to calculate just that, the conditional probability given that a certain combinations have been revealed, from 14 downwards (think same Tankathon table but with better precision and dynamic). I'd have made a web interface and posted the updated chart if there was more time between each pick is revealed, but the interval between picks revealed is so short that it defeats the purpose, it would make it a challenge to manually enter the partial results and update the odds. I suppose I could do a cheat sheet, but there are 14*13*12*11 = 24024 possible lottery outcomes (non top 4 are deterministic), and that's disregarding partial reveals, so it's not very practical and most people would not understand it. But I'll post the program in matlab plus maybe a spreadsheet or something like that if I can.
It isn't the natural order, but it doesn't mean that odds don't change as more information is revealed (updated odds conditioned on revealed info). It's actually perfectly possible to do what Manny suggests, and I actually did it with but its interface isn't user friendly as it's just code to be called with the revealed picks as parameters (array). If anyone knows Matlab / Octave I can share it... but it isn't mainstream.
First three tries: 6, 6, 6. Clearly Satan is going to make Wemby happen for us.
Just to limit the number of iterations, maybe you could post the updated odds table assuming that the first 5 picks (10-14) stay where they are, since those 5 each have less than a 1:5 shot of moving into the Top 4 That would show a good illustration of how the odds dynamics shift, even though it is reverse of the way it actually happens.
Hail Satan!
It's fun and all, but to me it still looses it's shine to me because it's a predictive model based on the advance probability of something that has already been determined. I get the fun math experiment, but I'd rather they do it live. Now that's real fun.
Luckily I have stronger odds to be pleased with the results of this draft since I have two players I highly favor over the others… 1st, 2nd, maaaaaybe 3rd pick if my guy gets passed up by the team with the 2nd pick.
4 for me that I wouldn't HAAAATE....
1. Wembanyama, of course
2. Bilal.
3. Cam
4. Miller
Beyond that, I'd feel like the tank, though absolutamente necessary, didn't work.
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