Most online sites porjected us at number 3 with brandon miller.lol
Bruh with how much you love Bilal, the bar is pretty low for what the Spurs need to get. The dude could fall to our 2nd rd pick. Now I understand why you’ve been hyping him up LOL. That’s a brilliant idea… you’re basically mentally prepared for any outcome in this draft. . I should have done the same and hyped up Gradey or some .
My Talkathon Numbers:
6th, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st
I think we got this!
It's one of the reasons I don't mind exploring trading back if we land at 3 or 4.... if a team is sold enough on someone (Miller or Amen) and offers an unprotected 25 with a lottery pick in this draft (Phoenix, ORL maybe?) I'd have to seriously consider that..
Tell me a better man defender. PATFO loves them some nephew style players and thought they found one with Primo a couple years ago. This dude is the closest thing to neph since neph. 2 5 SPG per 36. 6'8", with a 7'3" reach. 3 level scorer. High 30s 3 pt shooter over his last 25 games. Thats neph's game WITH some crazy good hops. Etc. etc. You're missing the boat man. Hop on before draft day and all is forgiven.
I think he reclassified to graduate HS early, but he still has to wait, since the new CBA didn’t address the direct from HS draft route. I believe his draft class is 2026, and we have an unprotected swap option from ATL.
just simmed the lottery 10 times. SA won the #1 pick 3 of them and picked no worse than 3 in all others besides one.
Wembanyama confirmed
Yeah I was thinking it would be as simple as knowing how many non chalk picks there were - but the odds are not equal so its variable depending on WHO is moved up. Much more complicated to calculate the correct odds
Yes, that is the definition of expected value, which you can find in any textbook on basic probability and statistics.
The 6th pick is the biggest hurdle they have to clear. 26% chance they pick 6th which would represent a disaster. I am not a statistician but once they clear the 6th pick the odds of landing a top two pick would have to go way up.
When is outrage day?
Yup. Say the first revealed place comes the team with record #14, then it doesn't say much. But if the first reveal is the team with the record #13, it tells a of a lot, because that means the #14 team jumped into top 4, and that diminishes everybody else's chances at a top 4 pick.
If you take this to the extreme, say the first reveal is the team with record #10. Then it means that teams #11, #12, #13 and #14 jumped into top 4, which in turn means teams #1 through #9 have ZERO chance at a top 4 pick, and all of that by revealing just the last lottery spot. So the table is HUGELY dependent on the order of the teams revealed, with each path requiring its own calculation, making matters more complicated (hence a computer program to do the heavy lifting for us). It's not difficult in terms of logic, but it definitely is overwhelming for a human to do it by hand.
Last edited by Ariel; 05-15-2023 at 08:29 PM.
Ariel I'd be curious at the updated odds chart assuming picks 10-14 go as expected.
Will do when I get to my laptop, but that case isn't very interesting, it's equivalent of drawing top 4 from a pool of 9 teams with their predetermined odds, so the order doesn't change and the odds at 1 are proportional to the balls in play, simply divide by (1 - sum teams #10 to #14)
This set isn't generally very valuable, but if Victor pans out this will be a holy grail card. Since it's a non-patch, non-pro team card... I'd guess $500-750k after grading and authentication.
As far as I know, the only non-patch auto to get go for over $1MM was a reprint of Jordan's 86 Fleer "rookie" that was on-card signed and hand number 21/23.
Did you read the rest of the conversation?
I'm mostly interested to show the impact of each increment as a simple illustration, but I agree it isn't very interesting.
With that said, by the time you get to the last 3 (and let's say the Spurs are in the last 3), the odds don't significantly deviate from a 33% chance at a top pick regardless of who is left.
In the case where SA, HOU and DET are left, then each team would truly have a 33% perceived chance at #1. In the case where SA, TOR and NO are the last 3 left, the Spurs odds increase a little bit for #1 (I won't take the time to calculate it out), but not significantly (guess off the top of my head would be somewhere between 34-36%?). If you wouldn't mind running these two scenarios, that could be illustrative for everyone. You could run every possible combination of 2 teams left with the Spurs, and the Spurs odds wouldn't deviate dramatically from 33% @ #1 in any of them.
Last edited by scott; 05-15-2023 at 09:04 PM.
Yeah, I know. The current system just sucks for college basketball (for those that enjoy it, I don't) and doesn't change anything with how raw the prospects are.
The should really ins ute a 2-year college minimum and 20 years old age limit, but that will never happen either. Instead, we have this "half-way" situation that frankly sucks.
Went ahead and built myself a quick little model in excel... if you want to get depressed ahead of tomorrow night, here is one scenario for you: in the example where SA, POR, WAS, ORL and CHA are left... the Spurs actually have the worst odds of those 5 at getting the #1 pick.
If you were drawing from 5, then 4, then 3, then 2, then 1 this would be the probability of each outcome.
1 2 3 4 5 SA 20.9% 20.0% 19.0% 17.9% 22.1% POR 23.7% 23.7% 23.9% 23.7% 5.0% WAS 22.9% 24.0% 25.6% 27.5% 0.0% ORL 24.2% 24.7% 25.3% 25.8% 0.0% CHA 22.6% 22.1% 21.5% 20.8% 13.0%
This is the same reason I don't like calculating odds in reverse of the natural order, however, because in reality the drawing for #1 occurs first and the Spurs would have the highest odds of these 5 teams at the #1 pick.
The below odds table are the odds of each team picking at each position if you reset all the balls after each turn.
1 2 3 4 5 SA 26.9% 26.0% 24.8% 23.6% 61.2% POR 20.2% 20.3% 20.7% 20.7% 9.1% WAS 11.5% 12.2% 13.1% 14.2% 0.0% ORL 17.3% 17.8% 18.3% 18.9% 0.0% CHA 24.0% 23.6% 23.2% 22.6% 29.8%
This first table shows the Spurs having the lowest odds at @ #1, because they have the highest odds of being eliminated in each round prior to #1. But the actual draft doesn't happen in this order and no such elimination occurs.
We end up with a fun game of Schrodinger's Wembycat, in which the Spurs simultaneously have the best and the worst odds at landing him.
Not gonna edit because I'll own my errors, but I realized I screwed up the top table (the odds of each individual pick do not sum to 100%). This would be a fun scenario to run, Ariel.
Promise I'll do that when I get home to my computer, give me a couple hours.
Sorry not trying to rush you
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