2023 NBA Draft Lottery: W-day

[Racspur1]

[CGD]

Really curious what picks the Magic get. The two for one trade potential is super interesting.

[spurraider21]

ran my 1 simulator today

Rockets
Blazers
Magic
Spurs
Pistons

[spursparker9]

[baseline bum]

ran my 1 simulator today

Rockets
Blazers
Magic
Spurs
Pistons

Just ran it for my roll today and got this, which would be a dream scenario since we get Kareem Abdul-Wembanyama and LOL Pistons LOL Rockets getting their worst possible picks. Plus Portland gets the #2 but obviously can't draft Scoot with Lollard there. Then Hornets #3 but they're going to draft him to play with Ball?

1. Spurs
2. Blazers
3. Hornets
4. Mavs
5. Pistons
6. Rockets
7. Magic

[Ariel]

Really curious what picks the Magic get. The two for one trade potential is super interesting.

It'd take 3 things IMO:
1) Our own pick landing 2/3
2) The Chicago pick (currently 11) not landing top 4, otherwise they lose it.
3) Their pick landing after ours and them being super insterested in one player only (Scoot/Miller?)
Under those conditions, it's workable. With that said, the appeal of such trade to me is contingent on getting 2 out of Cam Whitmore Anthony Black and Taylor Hendricks, and they seem to be raising on boards. If they're all gone I wouldn't do 2 for 6+11 straight up, I'd ask for an extra first or they can F themselves (they should do that if they really like their guy, as they've got their core together and should consolidate picks rather than ac ulate them).

[Ariel]

Plus Portland gets the #2 but obviously can't draft Scoot with Lollard there.

I can totally see Portland drafting Scoot and trading Dame. In fact that would make a lot of sense, they're going nowhere with him and his value will plummet with each year. They should cash him in before his contract becomes untradeable.

[baseline bum]

I can totally see Portland drafting Scoot and trading Dame. In fact that would make a lot of sense, they're going nowhere with him and his value will plummet with each year. They should cash him in before his contract becomes untradeable.

Tough to trade a star who really wants to stay and make it work there on his small market team but yeah at 33 looks like their hand is pretty much forced. Thought he was a couple of years younger when I posted that.

[Dex]

Sincere question that has probably already been asked and answered...but how exactly do they "perform" the picks these days?

Obviously it's not like the old days where they just reach in and pick an envelope. (NY sends its regards to Stern)

Do they still use ping-pong balls? Do they put it through a computer simulation? Do they race puppies?

I assume it's all done by computer now, but that's basically like going on Tankathon or NBA2K and running a single simulation....seems like it would be awfully easy for a tech to manipulate but hard to prove.

[BatManu20]

I’ve got a feeling will be #3, just a weird hunch

Amen Thompson you are a Spur.

[k830713]

1. Spurs
2. Hornets
3. Trail Blazers
4. Pistons
5. Rockets

[vander]

be nice if some intern would just leak the draft order, or at least #1

[Ariel]

Sincere question that has probably already been asked and answered...but how exactly do they "perform" the picks these days?

Obviously it's not like the old days where they just reach in and pick an envelope. (NY sends its regards to Stern)

Do they still use ping-pong balls? Do they put it through a computer simulation? Do they race puppies?

I assume it's all done by computer now, but that's basically like going on Tankathon or NBA2K and running a single simulation....seems like it would be awfully easy for a tech to manipulate but hard to prove.

They take a bunch of roaches and glue a paper with a team's name on each. Whichever takes a dump faster wins. If it dies before you're back to the end of the line.

[Seventyniner]

It'd take 3 things IMO:
1) Our own pick landing 2/3
2) The Chicago pick (currently 11) not landing top 4, otherwise they lose it.
3) Their pick landing after ours and them being super insterested in one player only (Scoot/Miller?)
Under those conditions, it's workable. With that said, the appeal of such trade to me is contingent on getting 2 out of Cam Whitmore Anthony Black and Taylor Hendricks, and they seem to be raising on boards. If they're all gone I wouldn't do 2 for 6+11 straight up, I'd ask for an extra first or they can F themselves (they should do that if they really like their guy, as they've got their core together and should consolidate picks rather than ac ulate them).

The trade would have to be agreed to while the Spurs are on the clock for #2, right? Unless the Magic and Spurs both want the same player at #2?

[scott]

Sincere question that has probably already been asked and answered...but how exactly do they "perform" the picks these days?

Obviously it's not like the old days where they just reach in and pick an envelope. (NY sends its regards to Stern)

Do they still use ping-pong balls? Do they put it through a computer simulation? Do they race puppies?

I assume it's all done by computer now, but that's basically like going on Tankathon or NBA2K and running a single simulation....seems like it would be awfully easy for a tech to manipulate but hard to prove.

I thought I read that they draw ping pong balls, but not just simply a ping pong ball that says "Spurs". They draw four (IIRC) balls to form a 4-digit code, with each code corresponding to a team. The Spurs, Rockets and Pistons having more combinations that belong to them than the Raptors, for example.

This may be outdated, but that was the last I read of how it works.

[baseline bum]

Sincere question that has probably already been asked and answered...but how exactly do they "perform" the picks these days?

Obviously it's not like the old days where they just reach in and pick an envelope. (NY sends its regards to Stern)

Do they still use ping-pong balls? Do they put it through a computer simulation? Do they race puppies?

I assume it's all done by computer now, but that's basically like going on Tankathon or NBA2K and running a single simulation....seems like it would be awfully easy for a tech to manipulate but hard to prove.

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

[scott]

That's not a valid combination for the last 5, because it would mean 1 (Detroit) and 2 (Houston) are out of the top 4, and they'd get 5 over any of those teams. That's something you have to be aware of when proposing a given combination because, in spite of the reveal order, only top 4 is allotted by the lottery, the rest is assigned in reverse order to their record, which means not every possible shuffle of 14 teams is valid. I suggest you simply pick a given top 4 order, then the rest I can put together so that it's consistent.

This is close to your scenario, I took the first four you listed (SA, POR, WAS and ORL) and left out Charlotte for consistency, and filled the rest in reverse form. It's corresponding sequence is: 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 7, 4, 2, 1, 6, 8, 5, 3
There you can see how the table (conditioned on known events) evolves:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=857857078

Thanks dude. Yeah, I realized I picked an invalid combo of teams there and forgot they are only drawing top 4.

I think at the end of the day, despite any statistics, there are two important things to remember:

1) As the count down from 14, the more teams that jump the worse that is for the Spurs. If 4 teams jump, you can start drafting your angry posts - we're drawing 7th.
2) If we get through 14-5 and the Spurs haven't been called, the odds from there on out are relatively flat for each subsequent pick, regardless of which teams are left.

Enjoy the ride!

[scott]

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

Brian Wright will know our fate first.

Just a note - Peter J Holt is the only owner representing a team on stage and I don't love it. No one gives a about owners. Lose the hubris and stay home where you belong.

[Ariel]

1) As the count down from 14, the more teams that jump the worse that is for the Spurs. If 4 teams jump, you can start drafting your angry posts - we're drawing 7th.
2) If we get through 14-5 and the Spurs haven't been called, the odds from there on out are relatively flat for each subsequent pick, regardless of which teams are left.

Yeah. It's actually a bit paradoxical, because:
1) whenever a team below you is skipped (as in they're reading 10th spot and they go straight to 9) that means it jumped into top 4 and lessens your chances.
2) if you SURVIVE your slot, it's retrospectively better to have teams below you having jumped into top 4, because it improves your chances.
So past bad news turn into great present news Isn't math fun

[John B]

Rolled twice. #2 on 1st try, and #1 pick on 2nd try. I’ll leave it there.

[timvp]

Just a note - Peter J Holt is the only owner representing a team on stage and I don't love it. No one gives a about owners. Lose the hubris and stay home where you belong.

Eh, daddy was on hand for Tim Duncan. Might as well let the son serve as a human good luck charm.

[DPG21920]

I don't think Dallas or Portland take Scoot. Detroit or Charlotte, probably does but I bet they'd consider trading back for another asset.

I think Dallas and POR 100% take Scoot. They both badly need more playmaking next to their main guards. Same with CHA. DET is the one team that maybe would be open to moving him, but like I said, I would love to trade pick 3 for Ivey if DET would do that in this scenario

[mo7888]

I think Dallas and POR 100% take Scoot. They both badly need more playmaking next to their main guards. Same with CHA. DET is the one team that maybe would be open to moving him, but like I said, I would love to trade pick 3 for Ivey if DET would do that in this scenario

My fingers are crossed that neither of us find out who's correct...

[DPG21920]

My fingers are crossed that neither of us find out who's correct...

I will be literally sick if Dallas lands Wemby.

[Ariel]

I think Dallas and POR 100% take Scoot. They both badly need more playmaking next to their main guards. Same with CHA. DET is the one team that maybe would be open to moving him, but like I said, I would love to trade pick 3 for Ivey if DET would do that in this scenario

I seriously doubt Charlotte or Dallas take Scoot... I mean, 1 ball for both Lamelo AND Scoot? As for Dallas, they may try to trade the pick. Otherwise Brandon Miller is a better fit, they already have a lead guard in Luka, plus they've got Kyrie. A big, shooting wing is a much more pressing need. I could also see them trading back and getting a lower pick while picking up a couple interesting players, say the land 3 and Miller is gone, then maybe Orlando calls and they'd do a Wendell Carter + 6 (Hendricks) for 3 (Scoot) + future first.