Itll be great to see everyone come back up in here to celebrate the turn around
Itll be great to see everyone come back up in here to celebrate the turn around
I really have still not looked into how the draft lottery works. Is there different combinations for different number picks for the same team?
Also, Rascal mentioned something about Orlando having 6 of the remaining 11 balls for the final winning combination, but the Spurs got their ball picked. Does that mean Orlando had a better chance of getting that last number? Is that what he's referring to?
Can anyone tell me if there any videos I can watch to see how this all works?
Washington had six of the 11 remaining balls for that last ball so they had a better than 50% chance to land Wemby. Portland had the three and the Spurs had the two.
Last edited by rascal; 05-17-2023 at 11:56 AM.
Here's the video:
The combinations are put in numerical order (1-2-3-4, 1-2-3-5, 1-2-3-6, ...., 11-12-13-14) and assigned to teams in reverse record order. The Pistons got the first 140 combinations (1-2-3-4 through 1-4-7-9), the Rockets got the next 140 (1-4-7-10 through 1-10-12-13), and the Spurs got the next 140 (1-10-12-14 through 2-5-12-13).
6 of the Spurs' 140 combos had the number 1 and one of them actually got drawn: 1-11-13-14, though it didn't count because it was after the Spurs already won the first pick.
The other 134 Spurs combos include the number 2.
That means if that fourth ball on the first draw wasn't a 2, the Spurs wouldn't have won the lottery.
I think the part about Orlando was that once 14/5/8 were drawn for the first pick, 6 of the remaining 11 balls would have given Orlando the first pick. Only one would have given it to the Spurs (#2), and sure enough it came up. Ironic that #2 actually worked in the Spurs favor. If it had been ball #1 then the Rockets would have ended up with VW.
(edit: Mugen is right, it was Washington and not Orlando that had 6 of the 11 combos with 14/5/8. One each for Houston/SA/Portland/Orlando/Indiana)
I'm pretty sure that the Rockets winning the coinflip over the Spurs meant their 140 combinations got listed before the Spurs, which in turn means that the 2-5-8-14 combo would have belonged to the Rockets had they lost the coinflip instead.
Last edited by Seventyniner; 05-17-2023 at 11:44 AM.
It was Washington, not Orlando tbh.
Gonna be good to watch Spurs games again tbh![]()
It's very much like a lottery drawing with 4 balls drawn out of 14. 1,000 out of 1,001 possible 4-ball combinations are assigned to the 14 teams in quan ies ranging from 140 to 5. Order doesn't matter.
https://www.nba.com/watch/video/the-...-by-state-farm
So it looks like had the Spurs won the coin flip then The Rockets would have had the winning combination.
Please somebody goes post that in Rockets forums and /r.
You're correct. It was Washington
I'll have to edit my post
rascal couldn't find his ass with two hands and a flashlight. Don't worry about what might have been, revel in what IS.
This is why tanking is an inexact science.
You're right. I edited my post.
According to Ryan Bernardoni, six teams had a shot at landing Wembanyama just before the final ping-pong ball was pulled. They were as follows:
Team % chance for No. 1 pick
Wizards 54.5
Magic 9.1
Pacers 9.1
Rockets 9.1
Spurs 9.1
Trail Blazers 9.1
Washington had six of the numbers the rest of the teams had one number of the remaining 11 balls
The Rockets winning the coin flip and thus dooming their chances at Wemby is f'n brutal and so hilarious tbh![]()
ing Crazy!!
It is Tim Duncan all over again..
Ha, yup, in retrospect, it was happily wasted time though. Kept me off thinking of what we could be if by chance (14% to be exsct), we snagged the #1
feels like yesterday we were theorycrafting on how to build around dejounte
maybe if we get john collins and zach lavine... that will give us a chance!
I found the answer.
In '87, we had a 14.29% chance of winning the lottery (4th position)
In '97, we had a 21.6% chance (3rd position)
This year we had a 14% chance (3rd position)
So the combined probability of winning all three was 0.43%
lottery is rigged PERIOD !
I'm back too!![]()
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